I think it's going to be much worse than that.
I agree with you on Missouri and Indiana.
West Virginia is toast, Manchin is hated by the left and faces a tough competitor. Plus it was Trump's second best result the whole election (over 40% more than Hillary), just behind Republican stronghold Wyoming.
Florida is a good chance to flip, especially if Governor Scott runs against Bill Nelson.
Ohio looks good, Trump won it by almost 10 points making it look bad for Dems.
North Dakota is ruby red, Heitkamp is popular though so she might hang on. However, being bipartisan might cost her with progressive voters.
Montana is a good location too.
The tougher ones will be the Michigan and Wisconsin races, since Trump won there on a knife-edge. Kid Rock might run a good campaign like Trump and inspire grassroots voters if he plays his cards right. Senator Kid Rock is possible.
I can see Dems winning Neveda but that's it. I doubt they flip Arizona.