India - How bad can it get?

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

We know that it is going to get worse before it gets better, there are two questions I have to ask.

 

1. What is the maximum number of daily deaths that will be recorded?

 

2. How long will their second wave last. Given a starting point of 3,800 the daily rate needs to be below this for 10 consecutive days (my definition)

 

my answers 11,500 and 23rd November 2021.

 

Numbers by the end of May.

[Youth in Asia 1,088]

The actual death rate is so far removed from what is recorded I'm not sure if the recorded number has any meaning.

[Cerberus 304]

On the plus side, it seems a few call centres are shut - I'm not getting so many idiot telesales calls from people pretending to do a 'survey.' Every cloud and all that ... 

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

On 05/05/2021 at 04:39, Youth in Asia said:

The actual death rate is so far removed from what is recorded I'm not sure if the recorded number has any meaning.

 

I would agree we know that the numbers are understated, if we take the worldometer numbers at least we have a standard upon which to base the predictions.                       

 

An alternative proposition is to take the seven day average approach.

 

Deaths = (W1+W2+W3+W4+W5+W6+W7)x1000/7

 

Where W1 through W7 are the daily Wikipedia Indian deaths reported due to covid grossed up by a correlation factor restated on a daily basis. The correlation factor may need some work but as a general overview this may be more accurate than the official figures.

[Cerberus 304]

It may be that new cases and deaths have peaked - both are roughly where they were a week ago - but it's a very high peak to come down from, and we know that coming down is slower. So I would expect deaths to be at around 300,000 by the end of this month and pass 400,000 sometime during the summer. Deaths per capita still extremely low though - they do have 1.4 billion people. 

[gcreptile 11,037]

Body-eating fungus in India as a COVID side-effect:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-57027829

[Cerberus 304]

In answer to the original question, I'm going to say 6,460 and 23rd August 2021 ... just realised I'm missing the Sickest Game thread. 

[Boring Bob 6]

Theoretically, there's no really point in guessing how bad it could get as there's such a wide range from a bit worse to most of india's population being wiped out.

 

Based on other countries you'd expect that a broadly similar pattern of a large peak followed by a gradual decline as the government take action. 

[Your dads fuckbuddy 4]

. 

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

The New York Times has some analysis of the potential extent of the numbers.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/05/25/world/asia/india-covid-death-estimates.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

[Sir Creep 7,071]

The Government School Teachers’ Association has estimated that around 120 Delhi government school teachers have died of Covid-19 in during the second wave of the pandemic, while the education department’s last estimate stood at 92 which is set to be updated next week.
SC

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

This is an adjustment for one of the poorer states. It might kickstart a review of reporting. Only around 5% of the population have been vaccinated high test results for days, shortage of beds, oxygen, and drugs just do not correlate with the reported reduction in deaths over the past week.  

 

On 17/05/2021 at 20:41, Cerberus said:

In answer to the original question, I'm going to say 6,460 and 23rd August 2021 ... just realised I'm missing the Sickest Game thread. 

Pretty damn close and we are nowhere near August yet, any further historical adjustments could really distort the numbers. 

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

More comment from the NYT

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/opinion/india-covid-ganges.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

[Toast 16,209]

1 hour ago, Charlotte's Controller said:

More comment from the NYT

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/17/opinion/india-covid-ganges.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

 

Paywalled, and your link isn't live.

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

For the benefit of Toast, some non paywalled comment.

 

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/excess-deaths-challenge-india-s-official-covid-toll-1818564-2021-06-23https://devdatalab.medium.com/making-sense-of-excess-mortality-f26cffe3643e

https://scroll.in/article/998620/why-its-difficult-to-tell-how-many-excess-deaths-in-india-are-due-to-covid-19

 

Very scary, a case for world concern as infected people continue to spread the disease. 

 

Another point my Wiki death count covid calculator now gives a zero count of covid deaths as none are now identified as such from India, there is either no cause or cardiac items. The latter of course is universal as dead people have a heart that is no longer operational. 

[Charlotte's Controller 195]

On 04/07/2021 at 16:06, Charlotte's Controller said:

For the benefit of Toast, some non paywalled comment.

 

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/excess-deaths-challenge-india-s-official-covid-toll-1818564-2021-06-23https://devdatalab.medium.com/making-sense-of-excess-mortality-f26cffe3643e

https://scroll.in/article/998620/why-its-difficult-to-tell-how-many-excess-deaths-in-india-are-due-to-covid-19

 

Very scary, a case for world concern as infected people continue to spread the disease. 

 

Another point my Wiki death count covid calculator now gives a zero count of covid deaths as none are now identified as such from India, there is either no cause or cardiac items. The latter of course is universal as dead people have a heart that is no longer operational. 

 

So the last point some notable people have started to die from covid again. Whilst a sarcastic comment in poor taste, how can a country with such a low vaccination rate and limited medical resources have such a low death rate, why is nobody questioning this?