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We know that it is going to get worse before it gets better, there are two questions I have to ask.

 

1. What is the maximum number of daily deaths that will be recorded?

 

2. How long will their second wave last. Given a starting point of 3,800 the daily rate needs to be below this for 10 consecutive days (my definition)

 

my answers 11,500 and 23rd November 2021.

 

Numbers by the end of May.

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The actual death rate is so far removed from what is recorded I'm not sure if the recorded number has any meaning.

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On the plus side, it seems a few call centres are shut - I'm not getting so many idiot telesales calls from people pretending to do a 'survey.' Every cloud and all that ... 

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On 05/05/2021 at 04:39, Youth in Asia said:

The actual death rate is so far removed from what is recorded I'm not sure if the recorded number has any meaning.

 

I would agree we know that the numbers are understated, if we take the worldometer numbers at least we have a standard upon which to base the predictions.                       

 

An alternative proposition is to take the seven day average approach.

 

Deaths = (W1+W2+W3+W4+W5+W6+W7)x1000/7

 

Where W1 through W7 are the daily Wikipedia Indian deaths reported due to covid grossed up by a correlation factor restated on a daily basis. The correlation factor may need some work but as a general overview this may be more accurate than the official figures.

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It may be that new cases and deaths have peaked - both are roughly where they were a week ago - but it's a very high peak to come down from, and we know that coming down is slower. So I would expect deaths to be at around 300,000 by the end of this month and pass 400,000 sometime during the summer. Deaths per capita still extremely low though - they do have 1.4 billion people. 

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ADMINS *crickets*

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