Thoughts and Opinions on the 2020 List

[Deathtreat23 189]

A very good start to the year with 8 hits by Easter! 

[Joey Russ 7,220]

It definitely looked like a great list on paper, but man am I stunned at how quickly this got to 8 deaths, ngl...

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,341]

3 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

It definitely looked like a great list on paper, but man am I stunned at how quickly this got to 8 deaths, ngl...

Have faith in the enema 

[Deadpool 166]

On 17/03/2020 at 17:10, Deadpool said:

Yeah, it's very likely one hit before that date... I will say maybe 2

I was right 

[msc 18,439]

Not often you get to 8/50 on the DL and are still spoiled for choice. Nearly half the list remaining it wouldn't be that surprising if they went in 2020.

 

1. Peter Sutcliffe - been in failing health for a few years.
2. Jean Marie le Pen - No corona but is frail and housebound.
3. Tom Smith - Terminal cancer.
4. David Crosby - Heart and many other problems, likely had 2 years left tops he said last summer.
5. Joanne Woodward - End stages of dementia for seemingly a decade now.
6. Carl Reiner - On age alone for the Twitterer, although DL have good history with their oldest new picks in recent years...
7. Ruth Ginsburg - Pan cancer
8. Shane MacGowan - on the basis of being Shane MacGowan.
9. Alex Trebek - pan cancer
10. Bouteflika - in deteriorating health last year, losing power likely wont help that.
11. Willie Nelson - is a case of 2020 or 2021.
12. Desmond Tutu - in and out of hospital, could be one of those DL lingers who stop lingering
13. Prunella Scales - Another near the end but the end could be 2020 or 2024...
14. Nobby Stiles - Gravely ill since 2015, somehow lingering on for now.
15. Leslie Phillips - Another lingerer for years worried about Gooseberry's predictions. Doesn't even do his rare wanders outside anymore.
16. Jimmy Carter - Various health issues in last year or two and surely close to expiry date even for longest lived Presidents.
17. Bob Barker - in and out of hospital in recent times.
18. Leon Spinks - bad battle with cancer, according to recent reports.
19. Bob Dole - world's frailest man 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, somehow still here.
20. Vera Lynn - frail for yonks and very very old.
21. Prince Philip - health notably on wane, very very old too.

[Bibliogryphon 9,573]

Next hit needs to be before day 154 (24th May) to stay ahead of 2008 but the record breaking year of 2017 was only at three deaths at this stage

 

[Deadpool 166]

2 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Next hit needs to be before day 154 (24th May) to stay ahead of 2008 but the record breaking year of 2017 was only at three deaths at this stage

 

I think that is very likely to have another hit before that date... the fact is if the average of deaths will continue for the whole year and might break the record of 17 deaths...

[Joey Russ 7,220]

On 12/04/2020 at 13:39, msc said:

Not often you get to 8/50 on the DL and are still spoiled for choice. Nearly half the list remaining it wouldn't be that surprising if they went in 2020.

 

1. Peter Sutcliffe - been in failing health for a few years.
2. Jean Marie le Pen - No corona but is frail and housebound.
3. Tom Smith - Terminal cancer.
4. David Crosby - Heart and many other problems, likely had 2 years left tops he said last summer.
5. Joanne Woodward - End stages of dementia for seemingly a decade now.
6. Carl Reiner - On age alone for the Twitterer, although DL have good history with their oldest new picks in recent years...
7. Ruth Ginsburg - Pan cancer
8. Shane MacGowan - on the basis of being Shane MacGowan.
9. Alex Trebek - pan cancer
10. Bouteflika - in deteriorating health last year, losing power likely wont help that.
11. Willie Nelson - is a case of 2020 or 2021.
12. Desmond Tutu - in and out of hospital, could be one of those DL lingers who stop lingering
13. Prunella Scales - Another near the end but the end could be 2020 or 2024...
14. Nobby Stiles - Gravely ill since 2015, somehow lingering on for now.
15. Leslie Phillips - Another lingerer for years worried about Gooseberry's predictions. Doesn't even do his rare wanders outside anymore.
16. Jimmy Carter - Various health issues in last year or two and surely close to expiry date even for longest lived Presidents.
17. Bob Barker - in and out of hospital in recent times.
18. Leon Spinks - bad battle with cancer, according to recent reports.
19. Bob Dole - world's frailest man 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, somehow still here.
20. Vera Lynn - frail for yonks and very very old.
21. Prince Philip - health notably on wane, very very old too.

And as it turns out, the next hit for the list is none of the above.

I think even with stupid misses like Little Richard this might be shaping up to be an amazing year for the list...

[msc 18,439]

1 hour ago, Joey Russ said:

And as it turns out, the next hit for the list is none of the above.

I think even with stupid misses like Little Richard this might be shaping up to be an amazing year for the list...

 

Sods law, Stiller was a late edit off that list as it turned out his serious stroke in 2019 was fake news? I was late to that bit. And now he is late.

[Bibliogryphon 9,573]

The next key date is 5th July to keep ahead of 2008

 

In 2015 there were 5 hits in between now and that date

[Deadpool 166]

28 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

The next key date is 5th July to keep ahead of 2008

 

In 2015 there were 5 hits in between now and that date

 it's very likely to have, at least, another 2 hits before that date... 

And thanks for the graphic  update ; )

[Lafaucheuse 4,046]

At this point, and because of my curiosity, if you had to, which picks would you place in these categories : « will die in 2020 », « uncertain » and « will survive the year » ?

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I'm not really sure, especially if said enema is true. I would say Lester Piggott and John Edrich are the two most likely to see another year, but I'm not 100% sure on that. We'll just have to wait and see...

[Grim Up North 3,725]

On ‎03‎/‎03‎/‎2020 at 10:59, Grim Up North said:

 

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Posted October 18, 2019

Since Charles Lane died in July 2007 the number 4 slot on the Death List has been a very safe place to be, at least for the next twelve months, with not a single hit.

 

Prince Phil currently keeping the sequence going.

 

For a place so high up on the list that is quite surprising however it is not the safest place to find yourself. That would be at number 32 where no-one has died whilst holding the slot since Lionel Hampton on 30th August 2002. This year (and last year) Valery Giscard D'Estaing has responsibility of keeping the sequence going.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To update this post from October 2019 the people tasked with keeping these sequences going are Vera Lynn and Jerry Stiller.

 

Jerry Stiller ending an 18 year sequence for the number 32 on the Death List being almost safer than not being on the Death List.

[Lafaucheuse 4,046]

If I may.... here are my guessess as we approach the middle of the year 

 

(% is the chance of them dying)

 

Prince Philip : 65% - back in december I couldn’t see him survive a month but somehow he managed to make it through half of the year so now, why not holding on till’ december ?

 

OdeH : 40% - yes she’s very old but You know... this is Olivia *sigh*

Vera Lynn : 70% - could go anytime, I wouldn’t be surprised if she does die tomorrow

 

Dick : 25% - I Don’t understand why he is so high, despite his age, he still looks healthy...

 

Akihito : 20% - I personally would have dropped him, he doesn’t sound like a gonner to me...

 

Pierre Cardin : 40% - at his age he could go anytime but he looked quite well at Gaultier’s final show and has an exhibition planned so...

 

Bob Dole : 75% - I’m surprised he lasted that long, definitely could see him drop around october 

 

Murray Walker : 50% - honestly... I didn’t know Who he was before DL... and I still Don’t so I prefer not to make any prediction on this one

 

Leon Spinks : 70% - sounds like a gonner but also sounds like a Bracknell situation...

 

Betty White : 40% - has a movie coming in december and was said to be « great » during the pandemic, I would consider her as safe... as I used to for Honor Blackman 

 

Lansbury : 25% - Cf. Van Dyck (even though at her age...)

 

Barker : 65% - as for dole, considering his hopsitalizations last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops dead one morning

 

Greenspan : 55% - that’s the picks I love, quiet for a while and dead after a dry period

 

Kissinger : 70% - easily could be a gonner 

 

Carter : 60% - according to last year health issues, I’m surprised he’s still with us

 

VGE : 60% - could see him last a bit longer but that harassment story with the german journalist may cause him some trouble 

 

Leslie Phillips : 80% - How can he still be here ?? 
 

Tony Bennett : 20% - Don’t see him going this year. Don’t know why. Don’t want to explain.

 

Harry Belafonte : 70% - Can see him going this year. Don’t know why. Don’t want to explain.

 

Nobby Stiles : 75% - a mix between the two Philips of our list : How can he still be here but now that we’re at it, I can see him going a bit further

 

Sybil Fawlty : 50% - the kind of average picks I have no opinion on, as much as I would hate to see her go...

 

Desmond Tutu : 30% - news about him were rather good those last times 

 

Delors : 60% - at his age, everyday is a challenge + has been really quiet these days

 

Willie : 70% - it has been a pretty deadly year for country singers so far. I think his time is come.

 

Edrich : 50% - see Murray Walker 

 

Bouteflika : 70% - he is a living corpse according to last Pictures of him 

 

Trebek : 75% - at this stage of his cancer, I wouldn’t give him 6 months left. Again, that’s What I said with Bracknell

 

McGowan : 50% - almost forgot he was on the list, really Don’t know...

 

The other Dick : 40% - seems safe... however 

 

RBG : 65% - so frail and ill but she’s à fighter 

 

The Lady Shoe : 60% - why not after all ? 
 

Carl Reiner : 75% - one time picked, one hit.

 

Lester Piggott : 50% - see above with Edrich and Walker

Woodward : 60% - can see her last a bit longer honestly, just like 8 months and die at the beginning of 2021, when the commitee has dropped her

 

Crosby : 70% - Don’t know, really.

 

Tom Smith : 80% - a sure hit imo

 

LePen : 50% - red in an interview he wanted to be alive for french election in 2022 and I can see him pissing everyone of by doing so

 

Musharraf : 15% - doesn’t seem his year 

Gates sr : 50% - I Don’t know, I Don’t care

 

Attenborough : 60% - I hope not but... 
 

Sutcliff : 80% - would be surprised if he makes it through the year

[roaming_comrade 471]

5 hours ago, Lafaucheuse said:

If I may.... here are my guessess as we approach the middle of the year 

 

(% is the chance of them dying)

 

Prince Philip : 65% - back in december I couldn’t see him survive a month but somehow he managed to make it through half of the year so now, why not holding on till’ december ?

 

OdeH : 40% - yes she’s very old but You know... this is Olivia *sigh*

Vera Lynn : 70% - could go anytime, I wouldn’t be surprised if she does die tomorrow

 

Dick : 25% - I Don’t understand why he is so high, despite his age, he still looks healthy...

 

Akihito : 20% - I personally would have dropped him, he doesn’t sound like a gonner to me...

 

Pierre Cardin : 40% - at his age he could go anytime but he looked quite well at Gaultier’s final show and has an exhibition planned so...

 

Bob Dole : 75% - I’m surprised he lasted that long, definitely could see him drop around october 

 

Murray Walker : 50% - honestly... I didn’t know Who he was before DL... and I still Don’t so I prefer not to make any prediction on this one

 

Leon Spinks : 70% - sounds like a gonner but also sounds like a Bracknell situation...

 

Betty White : 40% - has a movie coming in december and was said to be « great » during the pandemic, I would consider her as safe... as I used to for Honor Blackman 

 

Lansbury : 25% - Cf. Van Dyck (even though at her age...)

 

Barker : 65% - as for dole, considering his hopsitalizations last year, I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops dead one morning

 

Greenspan : 55% - that’s the picks I love, quiet for a while and dead after a dry period

 

Kissinger : 70% - easily could be a gonner 

 

Carter : 60% - according to last year health issues, I’m surprised he’s still with us

 

VGE : 60% - could see him last a bit longer but that harassment story with the german journalist may cause him some trouble 

 

Leslie Phillips : 80% - How can he still be here ?? 
 

Tony Bennett : 20% - Don’t see him going this year. Don’t know why. Don’t want to explain.

 

Harry Belafonte : 70% - Can see him going this year. Don’t know why. Don’t want to explain.

 

Nobby Stiles : 75% - a mix between the two Philips of our list : How can he still be here but now that we’re at it, I can see him going a bit further

 

Sybil Fawlty : 50% - the kind of average picks I have no opinion on, as much as I would hate to see her go...

 

Desmond Tutu : 30% - news about him were rather good those last times 

 

Delors : 60% - at his age, everyday is a challenge + has been really quiet these days

 

Willie : 70% - it has been a pretty deadly year for country singers so far. I think his time is come.

 

Edrich : 50% - see Murray Walker 

 

Bouteflika : 70% - he is a living corpse according to last Pictures of him 

 

Trebek : 75% - at this stage of his cancer, I wouldn’t give him 6 months left. Again, that’s What I said with Bracknell

 

McGowan : 50% - almost forgot he was on the list, really Don’t know...

 

The other Dick : 40% - seems safe... however 

 

RBG : 65% - so frail and ill but she’s à fighter 

 

The Lady Shoe : 60% - why not after all ? 
 

Carl Reiner : 75% - one time picked, one hit.

 

Lester Piggott : 50% - see above with Edrich and Walker

Woodward : 60% - can see her last a bit longer honestly, just like 8 months and die at the beginning of 2021, when the commitee has dropped her

 

Crosby : 70% - Don’t know, really.

 

Tom Smith : 80% - a sure hit imo

 

LePen : 50% - red in an interview he wanted to be alive for french election in 2022 and I can see him pissing everyone of by doing so

 

Musharraf : 15% - doesn’t seem his year 

Gates sr : 50% - I Don’t know, I Don’t care

 

Attenborough : 60% - I hope not but... 
 

Sutcliff : 80% - would be surprised if he makes it through the year

I believe if we add all your percentages up we will end up with no less than 30 hits this year.

[Lafaucheuse 4,046]

3 hours ago, roaming_comrade said:

I believe if we add all your percentages up we will end up with no less than 30 hits this year.

This is not because I put some high percentages that they will actually really die, the percentages are here just to reflect their likelihood to die. + would that be that unreal to have around 25/50 deaths ? I am disappointed that no list has ever reach half of hits 

[roaming_comrade 471]

1 hour ago, Lafaucheuse said:

This is not because I put some high percentages that they will actually really die, the percentages are here just to reflect their likelihood to die. + would that be that unreal to have around 25/50 deaths ? I am disappointed that no list has ever reach half of hits 

If you want to do a bit of math for fun then you can add up the probability of each of the 50 people on the list to die at their current age that year (depending on gender) and then add that together to find out what the average amount of expected deaths would be if you just picked random people:

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,573]

Well Vera keeps us 17 days ahead of 2008 and we have a 46 day window for the next hit if we are to stay ahead

 

[DeathClock 379]

This year has felt like an end of an era and start of a new one for this forum. We lost Kirk Douglas, Vera Lynn, Hosni Mubarak, Javier Perez De Cuallar who made a combined 44 appearances. I’ve followed this forum for about 5 years and these people have been a constant on the list. It’s going to be different with them not on the list next year. 

 

And this year is far from over. I think Prince Philip will die this year sometime in between September and December. I also think Dole has a very good chance to go this year. You can never trust a soon to be 104 year old (Olivia de Havilland) to survive the year. And who knows about Cardin. I do feel, however, Kissinger has a good shot to make the list again next year. 

[Deadpool 166]

9 minutes ago, DeathClock said:

This year has felt like an end of an era and start of a new one for this forum. We lost Kirk Douglas, Vera Lynn, Hosni Mubarak, Javier Perez De Cuallar who made a combined 44 appearances. I’ve followed this forum for about 5 years and these people have been a mainstay on the list. It’s going to be different with them not on the list next year. 

 

And this year is far from over. I think Prince Philip will die this year sometime in between September and December. I also think Dole has a very good chance to go this year. You can never trust a soon to be 104 year old (Olivia de Havilland) to survive the year. And who knows about Cardin. I do feel, however, Kissinger has a good shot to make the list again next year. 

 

I agree , its very likely that Olivia d H and Prince Phillip will go this year.... and with other possible hit the list will looks quite different!! 

[Deadpool 166]

2 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Well Vera keeps us 17 days ahead of 2008 and we have a 46 day window for the next hit if we are to stay ahead

 

thanks for the update... its likely that another hit will occur before 46 days...

[Joey Russ 7,220]

Seems like the oldest debutant on the list means it’s time to prepare an obituary for them. Indeed, the last time the oldest debutant didn’t die was back in 2013! 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,341]

So we are halfway through the year and have 11 hits.

Is that the highest mid year tally the committee has ever had or just one of the higher ones?

[Joey Russ 7,220]

5 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

So we are halfway through the year and have 11 hits.

Is that the highest mid year tally the committee has ever had or just one of the higher ones?

Definitely the highest so far. The closest to 2020’s midway total is 2008 with 9 hits by this point.