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Joey Russ

Thoughts and Opinions on the 2020 List

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1 minute ago, Joey Russ said:

Definitely the highest so far. The closest to 2020’s midway total is 2008 with 9 hits by this point. 

Thank you.I had a suspicion it was unprecedented but was hoping more knowledgeable souls could confirm. 

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3 hours ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Thank you.I had a suspicion it was unprecedented but was hoping more knowledgeable souls could confirm. 

we will continue to be ahead of every previous year until at least August 2, which is the previous earliest date for an 11th hit , in 2008.

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Well, there should be at least one more hit in 2020, as mind one of the long standing quirks of DL: "Never 11 hits without a 12th..."

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35 minutes ago, msc said:

Well, there should be at least one more hit in 2020, as mind one of the long standing quirks of DL: "Never 11 hits without a 12th..."

If there is only one more hit for the rest of the year I will be pretty gutted ! 

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I think that the list will score, at least, another 6 hits equalizing the previous  record... personally I think it will finish around 18-19 hits total

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This year seems to mark the end of a generation for the List. 

The committee has to come up with something new next year.

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Tbh, I think 2020 is an end of an era in more than one ways, not just for the Deathlist. 
This year has been nothing like I ever experienced before. 

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On 01/07/2020 at 19:09, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Thank you.I had a suspicion it was unprecedented but was hoping more knowledgeable souls could confirm. 

we will continue to be ahead of every previous year until at least August 3, which is the previous earliest date for an 11th hit , in 2008.

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On 01/07/2020 at 22:58, CoffinLodger said:

we will continue to be ahead of every previous year until at least August 2, which is the previous earliest date for an 11th hit , in 2008.

So now we are at least 2 hits ahead of every  previous year. Just phenomenol ! And so far a hit in each of the 7 months so far.Can we make it 12 out of 12 for the first time ever?

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On 31/12/2019 at 23:23, Joey Russ said:

Kirk Douglas - Just seems to be old at this point? Have no idea when he'll go, wouldn't shock either way at this point

Olivia de Havilland - similar situation to Kirk, except she seems to be a bit healthier. 

Vera Lynn - Apparently she has gotten frailer, so might be a good call to become a hit

Daniel arap Moi - Am kind of surprised he made it on the list (especially this high up), but certainly a welcome addition. Definitely a good bet to become a hit

Javier Perez de Cuellar - well, he's turning 100 and is as dull as ever

Honor Blackman - She seems to be Zsa Zsa's successor minus health problems. Which is fine tbh, those types of names should exist 

Hosni Mubarak - I guess the committee just like certain names. Felt like he could've been dropped despite the committee desire to keep picking him

Genesis P-Orridge - obvious dead cert. Probably gone in the next few months. And it's the type of cult name they have gone for in the past. Excellent

Stirling Moss - apparently he's still in poor health. He did make his 90th birthday despite a respected member feeling otherwise. Surely his time is soon, right?

Jerry Stiller - eh, another name that's just kind of there, and wouldn't shock me either way

Carl Reiner - A bit surprised here, and he also seems to be active. But I guess it's not impossible

Terry Jones - Sadly, I think 2020 is his year. Those end of the year articles made it seem like he's on his way out

 

Overall, I think it'll be a great list. Even with some drops that shouldn't have happened

Just seeing the names that died and how my original prediction happened to these names. Some of these were spot on, others not so much (I’m looking at you Mr Mubarak, who I thought should’ve been dropped at the beginning of the year). With some others still somehow breathing, there’s certainly potential for this to be a record breaking year. 
In other news, De Havilland’s obituary is very underwhelming like Vera’s was. Seems like Grim Reaper is just going through the motions at this point...

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On 18/06/2020 at 16:06, Bibliogryphon said:

Well Vera keeps us 17 days ahead of 2008 and we have a 46 day window for the next hit if we are to stay ahead

 

image.thumb.png.cc2a60b476dbba339099d895fd0def93.png

Can we have an update please? 

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2 hours ago, Deadpool said:

Can we have an update please? 

I did update my graph last night because I had failed to do it after Carl Reiner. I Will put it up later today. 

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On 27/07/2020 at 09:14, Deadpool said:

Can we have an update please? 

image.thumb.png.9b02b19b3bb7cf49a9009b2e4e5dfa94.png

The earliest 13th hit was day 255 in 2003 which corresponds to 11th September this year but at this point in 2003 there had not been an 8th hit.

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Though that new thread is unnecessary, I do like the idea of discussing whether the record will be broken or not. We are now ahead of 2017 by about 10 days, who’s 15th hit is about a month ahead 3 years ago. However, I’m not 100% sure that it’ll be breaking the record. I’d call it a coin flip at this point. 
The thing about 2017 is that when the 14th hit came around, there was still many obvious dead certs still alive at that point (thinking about Downie and King Michael in particular). This year? Probably the closest to a dead cert is Leon Spinks at this point, and he’s not a guaranteed death either. 
Trebek’s treatment is working right now, while Tom Smith has his tumors shrunken. I think at this point those two will more likely see the year out than not (though a sudden downturn for either would not shock). 
Outside of that, there’s certainly potential for some of the rest (like Delors losing his wife, or Joanne Woodward feeling such a has to be this year name), but none of them are guarantees. In fact, a big reason why we’re at 14 hits today is because the old’s people lottery has been successful on this years list. I’d actually consider 10 of the 14 hits part of that old people’s lottery (even folk like Stirling Moss is part of that cause he could’ve died at any point). The four who weren’t old people’s lottery names? RBG, who people could deduce that she couldn’t really fight off her pancreatic cancer last year; Terry Jones, who while he had dementia there were some end of the year warning signs that he was likely on his way out; Genesis P-Orridge, who was really ill with leukemia; and Daniel Arap Moi, who, unlike the others over 90, had a ton of life threatening ailments at the end of last year that made him a sooner rather than later name. 
I’m not saying the record is impossible, it is an enema year after all, but I just wouldn’t be surprised either way with what happens. 

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On 28/07/2020 at 19:59, Bibliogryphon said:

image.thumb.png.9b02b19b3bb7cf49a9009b2e4e5dfa94.png

The earliest 13th hit was day 255 in 2003 which corresponds to 11th September this year but at this point in 2003 there had not been an 8th hit.

Can we have an updated version of this please? 

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7 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Though that new thread is unnecessary, I do like the idea of discussing whether the record will be broken or not. We are now ahead of 2017 by about 10 days, who’s 15th hit is about a month ahead 3 years ago. However, I’m not 100% sure that it’ll be breaking the record. I’d call it a coin flip at this point. 
The thing about 2017 is that when the 14th hit came around, there was still many obvious dead certs still alive at that point (thinking about Downie and King Michael in particular). This year? Probably the closest to a dead cert is Leon Spinks at this point, and he’s not a guaranteed death either. 
Trebek’s treatment is working right now, while Tom Smith has his tumors shrunken. I think at this point those two will more likely see the year out than not (though a sudden downturn for either would not shock). 
Outside of that, there’s certainly potential for some of the rest (like Delors losing his wife, or Joanne Woodward feeling such a has to be this year name), but none of them are guarantees. In fact, a big reason why we’re at 14 hits today is because the old’s people lottery has been successful on this years list. I’d actually consider 10 of the 14 hits part of that old people’s lottery (even folk like Stirling Moss is part of that cause he could’ve died at any point). The four who weren’t old people’s lottery names? RBG, who people could deduce that she couldn’t really fight off her pancreatic cancer last year; Terry Jones, who while he had dementia there were some end of the year warning signs that he was likely on his way out; Genesis P-Orridge, who was really ill with leukemia; and Daniel Arap Moi, who, unlike the others over 90, had a ton of life threatening ailments at the end of last year that made him a sooner rather than later name. 
I’m not saying the record is impossible, it is an enema year after all, but I just wouldn’t be surprised either way with what happens. 

I agree with you but at this point, I'm way more convinced that 2020 is gonna either be a tie with 2017 or a record breakin year : we're only 3 hits away from 2017 now and there is more than 3 months to go. One week ago I was not so sure about the result of this year but there's a few names that can surprise us all (Delors, Walker, Barker, Stiles or Woodward who have all been really quiet recently) and some others that are lingering and could drop dead anytime now (Spinks, Trebek, Sutcliffe, Smith, Philips, VGE, Dole…). I predict something like 17 or 18 deaths by the end of the year but I could be completely wrong and there could also be no other deaths till the end… Time will tell !

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On 01/01/2020 at 17:09, msc said:

Ok, it's my annual look at each person on the list that people seem to enjoy for some reason:

 

Prince Philip: We all saw his recent hospitalisation, and then his photos after. Nosferatu was offering him health advice. His ability to bounce back is not in question, but he clearly is in the winter of his lifetime now, and I feel he’s going to struggle to get through this year intact.

 

Bob Dole: So in 2012, Inouye died and Bob Dole looked on his last legs. In 2018, Bush Sr died and Dole looked even more on his last legs. IN 2019 he got made an honorary Colonel and looked even worse. How is he still alive? This has to be his year.

 

Leon Spinks: I can understand the pick but with low level cancer, the hospital trip will end with him a hit by February or surviving the year. AS SEEN SINCE, CONSIDERABLY ILLER THAN THOUGHT IN JANUARY AND LIKELY A 2020/2021 NAME

 

Bob Barker: Seems to have bounced back from that hospital spell in 2018, but is getting up in age. And he had two falls in 2019 so is clearly getting up in frailty too.

 

Henry Kissinger: Still jetsetting, still fat as hell, still opinionated, but 97 this year so time must surely be up eventually.

 

Jimmy Carter: Been in hospital for a variety of worrying ailments in 2019 (the fall/brain bleed for example) – hes clearly starting to tire out and could well struggle to see out 2020. Also hes well past the expiry date for Presidents now. CLEARLY ON THE DOWNWARD SWING GIVEN RECENT FALLS/WEAKNESS

 

Valery d’Estaing: Old French leader, on till he drops, still out and about though. ICU VISIT/OUT/BACK IN DANGER IN NOVEMBER ON THE DROL SCALE?

 

Leslie Philips: Increasingly frail and quiet comic who has somehow made it to 95 despite looking on last legs most of the last decade.

 

Nobby Stiles: Gravely ill with cancer and dementia in 2015. Still here in 2020 and has outlived Gordon fn Banks, Ray Wilson and Martin Peters since. Remember when there was talk of a close race between the two 1966 teams on the DDP, and it was 2-2? England are diving out in front and with the increased rapid exit strategy of the team, and Stiles long recorded terrible health, he seems good to go in 2020. Now watch Bobby Charlton die in his sleep instead for sods law.

 

Prunella Scales: Her appearance in the last Canal Journeys was genuinely jaw dropping, especially when she didn’t recognise her own son, or didn’t know who Princess Diana was. But who knows with dementia, eh?

 

Willie Nelson: Struggling to breathe at recent gigs, looking frailer than a frail thing, and is so ill he gave up weed. That last bit is the most worrying of the lot! Looks on the road out. SEEMED HEALTHIER WITH LOCKDOWN BUT IS IN HIS INDIAN SUMMER

 

Alex Trebek: What is Stage IV pancreatic cancer? He’s wombling on, but the diagnosis and the treatment failure means final Jeopardy is fast approaching. WELL FOR NOW BUT 3+ MONTHS IS A LOT

 

Joanne Woodward: I like this pick, her health has been rubbish for ages (end stage dementia since 2015), she doesn’t recognise her late husband – only Paul fn Newman, and the Cmme have a habit of picking folk right in the nick of time. This could well be her year.

 

David Crosby: “In the next 2 years I’ll have a heart attack and they wont be able to save me” said Crosby in summer 2019. His heart issues are well documented, and 2020 takes up a lot of that timeline…

 

Tom Smith: If you heard him slurring on the BBC a few weeks ago you’d think he had weeks left… ANOTHER DOWNTURN AT ANY TIME

 

Jean Marie le Pen: Very DLy. Meant to be in frail health for years.

 

Peter Sutcliffe: So much ill health for years. Breathing issues, heart issues, diabetic complications, failing health and on a whole bunch of drugs to stay alive according to The Mirror. Could be a good call.

 

 

 

From my bit on Jan 1st and removing the dead and the well, these names still strike me as possibles...

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21 minutes ago, msc said:

 

From my bit on Jan 1st and removing the dead and the well, these names still strike me as possibles...

Gosh you have really  have drank the kool aide regarding the enema! I'm  impressed!Your faith will be rewarded don't worry :D^_^

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2 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Gosh you have really  have drank the kool aide regarding the enema! I'm  impressed!Your faith will be rewarded don't worry :D^_^

 

Hah, from that list, only 3-5 at the most will go in 3 months. But the more possibles, the more chances, as they say.

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3 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Gosh you have really  have drank the kool aide regarding the enema! I'm  impressed!Your faith will be rewarded don't worry :D^_^

 

Although, after this year has seen icons, political leaders, heavyweight actors/writers and personal friends (including some I've known since childhood) die by the bucketload, I conceded you were right on the whole enema thing some time ago.

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2 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Although, after this year has seen icons, political leaders, heavyweight actors/writers and personal friends (including some I've known since childhood) die by the bucketload, I conceded you were right on the whole enema thing some time ago.

Sorry for your losses on a personal  level. 

But yes 2020 is a heck of a year with regards to celebrity  /iconic deaths and will be until the end is my sense.

I do believe a new record will be set by the official deathlist. 

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Mostly low hanging fruit though and certainly so far missing the shock factor big names of 2016 and 2017.

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9 hours ago, Deadpool said:

Can we have an updated version of this please? 

It might take me a couple of days. 

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October 16th is the next key date in order to stay ahead of 2017.

 

That gives us almost a month but we have had a slow time since Olivia.

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