Katyusha

My 2c, the scenario I'm thinking of is not another 2016, but another 2020. Results come down to 3 or 4 states by a >1% margin of excruciatingly slowly-counted mail ballots. By the time these states' results are actually confirmed Trump has already declared victory, because of course he has. A significant contingent of his voter base and GOP politicians refuse to accept if he loses, Trump says increasingly irresponsible things, his base react predictably... deja vu.

The greatest anti-vax minds of Twitter are already on the case, of course. There's simply no explanation for an old, overweight, constantly riled up bloke dying of a heart attack that doesn't point back to Pfizer.

Having a long-winded whinge about the sassenachs til the very end, what a trooper

Feel awful for the poor bastard, seems like there's nothing there mentally or physically. Just feels undignified rolling him out for the media in that state. If he's as motivated by the presidential election as some are claiming I could see him making it just in time to vote early and clocking out more or less right after.

That was an utterly pathetic performance even by Southgate's standards. Never once looked like scoring after one lucky sitter for Kane, we genuinely deserved to lose that. Passing back with half the team up the pitch ffs. Zero minutes for Palmer, Mainoo or Gordon. TAA in midfield yet again for some inconceivable reason. At least when England inevitably get knocked out again he surely won't be able to avoid the sack this time.

RIP one of the all time greats. A legend for club and country, sadly few remaining from his era now...

*taking notes* Number 7 spot... Henry Kissinger

Trying to work out how many decades it's been since ol' Henry last got the blood flowing

Perhaps not just if Labour fails to win both, but if Lab gets neither and the Tories get at least one quite possibly. I think the conservative establishment are likely to conclude such a moment is as good as their chances are going to be for a while and not risk waiting longer for a snap election, for the "trust of the nation" of course. Edit: Assuming Rutherglen is the potential Scottish one? I see that as a place thoroughly apathetic with politics, so I expect some slightly wacky results there from low turnout.

As cliche as it sounds I really think the odds here are bout a third each for no change, tactical labour victory or apathetic lib dem victory. We'll definitely need more time closer to polling day with this one to start making a remotely concrete prediction.

Ah couldn't find that, yes that does paint a different picture. Labour definitely second place favourites then - though I'd still say these kinds of by-elections have a way of surprising you. May well end up a tight three-way race.

This doesn't conflict what I said, does it? North Shropshire looked even more lopsided than that in 2019, again with Labour as the largest *opposition party. The Liberal Democrats just don't seem to be treated the same by voters in by-election times.

Tory hold definitely the most likely outcome, but who knows at this rate. I was wondering on what basis is this seat a Tory-Labour contest? Admittedly I'm quite far removed from the political action up here in West Yorkshire, but from my understanding with similar seats such as Chesham and Amersham, Tiverton and Honiton, North Shropshire etc. they're geographically large and rural southern communities put off from the conservative party by farther-right populist Tories. Unless there's something I'm missing, would that not also be the case here, knowing that national polls matter very little to such a midterm contest?

Thank bloody christ. One of the biggest clowns at long last ejecting herself from the circus. Mid Bedfordshire is an incredibly solid tory seat, but as we've seen with by-elections in the past that does not stop Lib Dem gains against unpopular conservative incumbents.