Phantom 2,536 Posted February 3, 2016 Good luck with that, resurrecting Rick Wright might be considered the easy part.... You think rigor mortis has already set in? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phantom 2,536 Posted February 3, 2016 Rick Santorum drops out of the race Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rockhopper penguin 2,265 Posted February 3, 2016 Good luck with that, resurrecting Rick Wright might be considered the easy part.... You think rigor mortis has already set in? He probably said it after a momentary lapse of reason. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phantom 2,536 Posted February 3, 2016 So on the Republican side we have the remaining hopefuls. Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush Carly Fiorina John Kasich Chris Christie Who do you think will be next to drop out of the race? My money is on Jeb Bush, Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RadGuy 1,614 Posted February 3, 2016 So on the Republican side we have the remaining hopefuls. Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush Carly Fiorina John Kasich Chris Christie Who do you think will be next to drop out of the race? My money is on Jeb Bush, Hell no. It's going to be Fiorina. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Death Impends 8,008 Posted February 3, 2016 Feel it'd be Fiorina too, she's about the only one left who has that "wait, she's still in the race?" feel. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RadGuy 1,614 Posted February 3, 2016 Feel it'd be Fiorina too, she's about the only one left who has that "wait, she's still in the race?" feel. Jim Gilmore too. Heck, he wasn't even included on the list! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
charon 4,943 Posted February 3, 2016 So on the Republican side we have the remaining hopefuls. Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush Carly Fiorina John Kasich Chris Christie Who do you think will be next to drop out of the race? My money is on Jeb Bush, Agreed. He's at the point now where he is asking his own supporters to clap him. He must see it's over. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RadGuy 1,614 Posted February 3, 2016 So on the Republican side we have the remaining hopefuls. Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush Carly Fiorina John Kasich Chris Christie Who do you think will be next to drop out of the race? My money is on Jeb Bush, Agreed. He's at the point now where he is asking his own supporters to clap him. He must see it's over. Heck naw. Within a week he'll probably secretly give his old paw Herbert Walker too much medication, have his weak body die, and win some pity votes. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phantom 2,536 Posted February 4, 2016 Feel it'd be Fiorina too, she's about the only one left who has that "wait, she's still in the race?" feel. Jim Gilmore too. Heck, he wasn't even included on the list! I had forgotten he was still in the race. He only got 12 votes in Iowa. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Zorders 1,271 Posted February 4, 2016 So on the Republican side we have the remaining hopefuls. Ted Cruz Donald Trump Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush Carly Fiorina John Kasich Chris Christie Who do you think will be next to drop out of the race? My money is on Jeb Bush, Agreed. He's at the point now where he is asking his own supporters to clap him. He must see it's over. "You can actually pinpoint the moment where his heart broke" No, you can see him smile actually......... and so did his fans. Please (stop the) crap. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,593 Posted February 4, 2016 I think the establishment will do everything they can to keep Bush in the race.I think John Kasich should go because I can't even picture him. Followed by Chris Christie after New Hampshire. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phantom 2,536 Posted February 4, 2016 The front runners tend to be a lot more vocal, although personally none of them seem to be electable Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RadGuy 1,614 Posted February 4, 2016 My guesses on when the Republicans will call it quits February 10th: Carly Fiorina February 11th: Ben Carson February 11th: Jim Gilmore February 21st: John Kasich February 21st: Chris Christie February 28th: Jeb Bush That leaves Trump, Cruz and Rubio, battling it out for a few more months. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RadGuy 1,614 Posted February 4, 2016 Also, here are my Democratic predictions on who will win what states. Bernie: Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, Oregon, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin (10) Hillary: the rest (40) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phantom 2,536 Posted February 4, 2016 The front runners tend to be a lot more vocal, although personally none of them seem to be electable Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Shroud 19 Posted February 4, 2016 (edited) Just heard that former US Senator Rick Santorum has quit the Republican race; down to 8 candidates for them now, I believe. Be 2, 3 more knocked-out next week, I imagine. On some of the people mentioned here, if Bush Sr. expires, it might garner some sympathy votes for Jeb, but he has fallen so far back now, it would be too little, too late, I believe. If he doesn't win a state somewhere in the next two or three weeks, which is quite unlikely at this point, he's just as well to toss his towel in also. If Nancy departs in '16, probably not a huge factor one way or the other, really, at this point. Ronnie has been gone over a decade, now,and her own influence has waned some as time has passed. Edited February 4, 2016 by Magere Hein Post moved from topic "Nancy Reagan" Please post about the primaries HERE. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CarolAnn 926 Posted February 4, 2016 March 1st. Things will be marginally clearer. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phantom 2,536 Posted February 4, 2016 Just heard that former US Senator Rick Santorum has quit the Republican race; down to 8 candidates for them now, I believe. Be 2, 3 more knocked-out next week, I imagine. On some of the people mentioned here, if Bush Sr. expires, it might garner some sympathy votes for Jeb, but he has fallen so far back now, it would be too little, too late, I believe. If he doesn't win a state somewhere in the next two or three weeks, which is quite unlikely at this point, he's just as well to toss his towel in also. If Nancy departs in '16, probably not a huge factor one way or the other, really, at this point. Ronnie has been gone over a decade, now,and her own influence has waned some as time has passed. Mentioned here yesterday Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phantom 2,536 Posted February 4, 2016 This is why Bernie Sanders should be President https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV4L_OHGpyo 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
charon 4,943 Posted February 5, 2016 Quick q re Cruz. How come he can run for the job if he is a Canadian? Thought being born a non yank is what stopped Arnie? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phantom 2,536 Posted February 5, 2016 Quick q re Cruz. How come he can run for the job if he is a Canadian? Thought being born a non yank is what stopped Arnie? His mother is a natural born U.S. citizen. Either the candidate has to be born in the U.S. (eg. Rubio whose parents were Cuban however Rubio was born in Florida ). Or born on a military base like John McCain, or one parent was a citizen at the time of birth. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rockhopper penguin 2,265 Posted February 5, 2016 Quick q re Cruz. How come he can run for the job if he is a Canadian? Thought being born a non yank is what stopped Arnie? The rules are 'The candidate must be 35 years of age and a resident of the United States for 14 years. He or she must be a "natural born citizen."' It is the latter which causes issue. Cruz was born in Canada but his mother is American (from Delaware) although his father is Cuban, Schwarzenegger was born in Austria to Austrian parents so is totally ruled out. There is still room debate of course (otherwise how would lawyers make any money) on what a 'natural born citizen' means but the consensus seems to be, for now, being an offspring of an American citizen is enough. The most rigid application of the 'must be born here' rule was by Yorkshire County Cricket club who insisted on players only being selected from those born within the 'historic' boundaries of Yorkshire (known as the eeh bah lebensraum). This led to many in-car births as proud Yorkshiremen attempted to race their dilating wives over the border before the offspring emerged. The rule was abandoned in 1992 as it was found children born in the back of a Ford Cortina were too susceptible to a left arm over the wicket and therefore hampering the success of the team. These days even Barack Obama could play for Yorkshire and much better they are for it. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
charon 4,943 Posted February 6, 2016 Cheers folkies Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted February 6, 2016 Ok, so up until today I've refrained from clicking on this thread but as we're into primary season, I decided I should see what people are saying. I'm a Brit but very into American politics and have watched a few of the debates and watched the Iowa results come in, so I think I have a decent handle on what's going on, and hopefully can clear up a few of the hypotheticals and musings that people seem to be coming up with. First, the Republicans. Cruz and Trump occupy similar ground and appeal to similar voters. Carson is also included in this group, what we could charitably describe as the 'nutjobs'. Carson will drop out soon enough, maybe after New Hampshire (he took a break after Iowa to go home to Florida, apparently to 'get some clothes', which is of course precisely what you do in the middle of a Presidential campaign...) but it's hard to see Cruz or Trump giving up the ghost so long as they keep getting 20-odd percent of the vote in the various primaries. The Republican 'Establishment' want a 'mainstream' candidate to emerge that they can coalesce around. Kasich, Bush and Christie are all vying to be that guy, and are pinning all their hopes on doing well in New Hampshire, but Marco Rubio's strong third place in Iowa has now made him the favourite to take that mantle, even though he is only 'mainstream' when compared to Cruz and Trump and not when compared to Joe Public. Even so, he's the most telegenic and the closest the Republicans have to an Obama figure (young, ethnic, inspirational) and Republicans are coming to the opinion that he's their best hope. The expectation is that it will boil down to Cruz v Trump v Rubio in the coming months and how that works out in the voters minds is hard to say. Rubio could benefit if Trump and Cruz take votes off each other, but if one of them can harness the majority of 'nutjob' support in the state, then the current polls still say they'll win it. In Iowa, Cruz, Trump and Carson got nearly two thirds of the votes cast, so even if Rubio unites the 'mainstream', he's still supposedly only going to be able to win states where the vote is heavily split (unless the Republicans realise that Rubio is the only one likely to have any appeal whatsoever to independents and Democrats). This could end up being quite the fist fight and could go all the way to the convention, but more likely is that somewhere along the line, it will all get worked out and there'll be a consensus candidate. Then again, we assumed that would happen with Obama and Hillary and they went almost all the way. Which brings me on to the Democrats. O'Malley was supposed to be the plucky underdog to Hillary but Bernie rained on his parade when he got involved and he had no chance. Sanders has an appealing message, in the same way Trump does on the Republican side but as with Trump, it's hard to see how his views will translate into 1. Electoral victory and 2. Action once he gets into power (the Republicans who control the House are going to replace Obamacare with an American NHS? They're going to sanction a $15 minimum wage? Exactly.) A tough primary battle is not necessarily a bad thing for Hillary - the expectation was it would be a coronation and this way, she'll have to earn the nomination, which makes her a stronger candidate and shows the Democrats have vetted their candidates just as the Republicans have. Things between Bernie and Hillary have been needle-y but not openly hostile and I think they'll stay this way. They keep extolling the virtues of their 'issues driven' debates rather than the personal attacks that the Republicans have engaged in. I still think Hillary is in prime position to win the nomination, probably sometime in April. The only thing that could truly sink her is if the email scandal results in criminal charges but all the evidence is that it's another Republican exercise to discredit her and will eventually be resolved one way or another. If Bernie was to win, then all bets are off for the Presidential election. So what happens when the nominations have been made? All this talk about third party candidates, etc. Unless things descend into all out war between Hillary and Bernie (and I don't think that they will - she's learnt from last time and doesn't see Bernie as as big a threat as Obama was) then there won't be any issue for the majority of Democrats in supporting her. Bernie won't do anything to sink Hillary's chances in the general election - he may not be wild about her policies but he wouldn't want to be the guy that let President Cruz or President Trump (or President Rubio for that matter) into the White House. So as and when he concedes (and probably at the convention too) he'll give a big speech on party unity, in the same way Bill and Hillary did in 2008. I think most Democrats will support Hillary - regardless of their personal opinions of her, the chance to elect the first woman President will see them over the line. The Republican side is where the big question mark lies. There won't be an 'establishment' coup if Trump or Cruz wins the nomination and I can't see Cruz mounting a third party bid when he feels he's the true Republican rather than the black sheep of the family. He's also friendly with Rubio and Rubio's supposedly suggested he's get a seat in his cabinet. Trump is a law unto himself and did say at the first Republican debate that he would not rule out running as an Independent if he didn't win the nomination. He has since backtracked on that and said he would support the nominee, largely because I think he assumed he would be that nominee. If he isn't, a lot will depend on whether the nominee chooses to engage with him or if Trump thinks America is truly screwed by President Clinton (or President Sanders) and decides to back off to prevent this happening. Michael Bloomberg is the joker in the pack. He's a moderate, a former Republican and a former Democrat. He has a vast fortune which allows him to run his own campaign, but if Hillary is the nominee I don't see him entering the race. I don't think he could win even if he entered the race but he could possibly nick the votes in the middle and make a number of swing states ultra swingy. Some on here have talked about the possibility of a three-way tie between the three of them but in that case there wouldn't be a winner. The Electoral College requires a candidate to receive 272 votes to be President and if three candidates got a sizeable number of electoral college votes then no one would be able to get to 272. Of course, it is possible for a third party candidate to receive 20% of the vote nationally and still not receive any electoral college votes, as Ross Perot did in 1992. And in the highly unlikely event that there is no winner on the night in the Electoral College, then the Constitution states that the election of a President descends to the House of Representatives, with each states' representatives getting a single vote between them (so 50 in total) and a winning candidate must receive 26 states votes (a majority). This ballot can be held as many times as necessary to elect a new President but, in reality, the Republican would almost certainly win as the Republicans hold a large majority in the House. Anyway, we've descended into the realm of complete fantasy now, it will never get that far. In conclusion, a lot depends on who the Republicans choose and that won't be known in all likelihood until May/June at the earliest. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
