Josco 49 Posted April 26, 2005 There are now just 45 candidates left, not 50, and the odds get longer every time another name drops off the list. My calculations take care of that. If there's interest, I can post the formula. My model is valid, but statistically naive and very sensible to streaks of hits ans long droughts. I'm working on calculating confidence intervals, which should improve the usability. regards, Hein Are we bored at work then? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Magere Hein 1,400 Posted April 26, 2005 I'm working on calculating confidence intervals, which should improve the usability. Are we bored at work then? How on earth did you guess? regards, Hein Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cowboy Ronnie 78 Posted April 26, 2005 MH - do your calculations also factor in the fact that all 5 who have gone so far were in the top 25, and that there is some weighting towards the most likely to go being toward the top of the list? Equally bored at work Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Magere Hein 1,400 Posted April 26, 2005 MH - do your calculations also factor in the fact that all 5 who have gone so far were in the top 25, and that there is some weighting towards the most likely to go being toward the top of the list? My model assumes all candidates have the same probability to die. I'm aware that's an oversimplification, but I can't think of a way to reliably assign personal probabilities to my model, and it keeps the calculation simple. I just eyeballed the previous lists. Even though most hits are in the upper half of the list, rank on the list doesn't seem to be a reliable indicator of the chance a candidate will cark it. The number of appearances on the lists by some of the candidates hints to that as well. I can stick the previous years in a spreadsheet and try and analise the patterns, but that's a considerable amount of work. regards, Hein Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Death list boy 8 Posted May 17, 2005 (edited) Y is no one dieing am so shocked that we have not had a death since John Mills who died in Aril 28 almost a month snice his death and no death's have been reported i think u guys should get more people that we know on this death list becuase i don't know half of these people that are on here P. S. think about putting some sports people on here for 2006 ex Willie Mays Hank Aaron. Edited May 17, 2005 by Death list boy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Four Horsemen 26 Posted May 17, 2005 You're right, of course - if you don't know who half of them are then they can't be famous - what were the Admin team thinking of when they created this useless list of nobodies! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Banshees Scream 110 Posted May 17, 2005 Patience brings time and time brings death So dont say anything untill someone dies! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,682 Posted May 17, 2005 I like the ones I don't know, the site is an education. I also think they're well chosen, some real oldsters amongst them. Be patient, the Grim Reaper will reap grim before too long. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest IYG Posted May 17, 2005 I like the ones I don't know, the site is an education. I also think they're well chosen, some real oldsters amongst them. Be patient, the Grim Reaper will reap grim before too long. That's a good point, does the Grip Reaper actually reap the grim or just cause grim? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
3minutes2midnight 1 Posted May 17, 2005 Oh dear, death list boy. For your homework, you should google one of the nobodies on the list each night. You'll be a better person for it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cowboy Ronnie 78 Posted May 17, 2005 I went through the list, and using the following factors, decided at least 6 names really add very little to this year's DL, in the sense that if the poeple die, will anyone care? They scored 3 on my fameometer. 1's should be unarguable, 2's up for debate. The factors were: 1. has the person done something for which he/she is globally famous? e.g. a president/Prime Minister of a major country, but not 50+ years ago, won a major Oscar, been a global sports star. 2. if a person is famous in his/her home country, how well is the person known elsewhere? We could say that if people from 10, or 5, foreign countries say they've heard of the person, they're famous enough. 3. what does it say on Wikipedia? I looked in terms of both how much was written (helpful, but not determinative), plus if I'd heard of the names, events, or things mentioned in the article. 2005 Ranking Name Fame Level 1 Pope John Paul II 1 2 Ronnie Biggs 2 3 Max Schmeling 1 4 Simon Wiesenthal 1 5 Patrick Moore 2 6 Brooke Astor 3 7 William Rehnquist 2 8 Albert Hofmann 3 9 Oscar Niemeyer 2 10 Sister Lucia 1 11 Edward Heath 1 12 Claude Levi-Strauss 3 13 John Kenneth Galbraith 2 14 John Mills 1 15 Ernest Gallo 1 16 Norman Wisdom 2 17 Al Lewis 1 18 Gretchen Franklin 3 19 Elizabeth Taylor 1 20 Joseph Barbera 1 21 Alexander Solzhenitsyn 1 22 Maharishi Mahesh Yogi 1 23 Claire Rayner 2 24 Byron Nelson 1 25 Lord James Callaghan 1 26 Richard Pryor 1 27 Milton Friedman 2 28 Rosa Parks 1 29 Hamed Karzai 1 30 Bill Deedes 2 31 Diego Maradona 1 32 Frankie Laine 2 33 Gerald Ford 1 34 Jake Lamotta 1 35 Michael Foot 2 36 Tony Martin 3 37 Jane Wyman 1 38 James Doohan 1 39 Eli Wallach 1 40 General Pinochet 1 41 Les Paul 2 42 Olivia De Havilland 1 43 PW Botha 1 44 Walter Cronkite 1 45 Herbert Lom 1 46 Betty Ford 1 47 Kurt Waldheim 1 48 Peter O'Sullevan 3 49 Fidel Castro 1 50 Jerry Lewis 1 In case anyone cares Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tuber Mirum 126 Posted May 17, 2005 I have absolute faith in the Selection Committee to come up with a list of celebrities according to their own singular if slightly opaque criteria. The last thing we want is to have the like of Gretchen Franklin or Peter O'Sullevan replaced by some more internationally famous people. That would detract considerably from the attraction of Deathlist which lies in the mild eccentricity of the selection process. And probably attract even more illiterates than we already have, if that is possible. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
3minutes2midnight 1 Posted May 17, 2005 I disagree with the 3 for Levi-Strauss when Galbraith gets 2, likewise for Hoffman and Moore. Otherwise your judgement seems uncontestable. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
-Q- 0 Posted May 17, 2005 Well, my first nomination goes to (drum roll, please!)... Christopher Lee. Let's face it - he's ancient, and no matter how utterly cool I think the guy is, it doesn't mean he isn't past his sell-by date, goddammit!!! It's him or the new pope! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mr Macabre 0 Posted May 18, 2005 Going back to the origins of this thread I think future hits for the list are going to be few an far between this year!I normally have agreed with past selections however this years list seems bizarre in the least!Sure alot of old people but they are still in comparative good health!Definate no gos Liz Taylor, Wyman , De Haviland, Wisdom and Jerry Lewis even Martin an Astor have good odds of seeing the year out!Posiible Heath an Castro will be hits thats about it! I guess past successes an the loss of perenial favourites such as Bob Hope an Kate Hepburn have meant the introduction of some new blood!Give it another year or two an this lot will be taking the final shuffle into oblivion!Not this year tho I am afraid Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr Strangelove 14 Posted May 18, 2005 If your interested, the other night I had a dream in which the death of Castro was announced on the news. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Teddy 21 Posted May 18, 2005 (edited) Y is no one dieing am so shocked that we have not had a death since John Mills who died in Aril 28 almost a month snice his death and no death's have been Just picking up on the first point (and without getting into the esoteric nature of the picking of nominations), we still have some way to go to create a record. According to Mr Stats (last seen heading towards the Middle East, shortly before Arafat died - wonder if there is a connection....), the longest period of 'drought' was 241 days, between 23rd June 96 and 19th Feb 97 EDIT: oops, checking back, it was actually Grim Reaper, (last seen mowing John Mills lawn!) Edited May 18, 2005 by Teddy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Four Horsemen 26 Posted May 18, 2005 Grim Reaper was last seen heading towards the Middle East after mowing John Mills' lawn? Perhaps he took a short cut........... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grim Reaper 186 Posted May 18, 2005 Well Im still waiting for Mills to pop round to return the favour and do my lawn - No sign of the old sod yet ... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Grim_Rita 4 Posted May 19, 2005 Jerry Lewis is a very real possibility as he's had all sorts of ailments over the last few years! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted May 19, 2005 It's been about a month since we had a true headline subject to morn! Can't carry on like this for much longer can it? I figure it will end in a week long tumble of almost never ending high profile death hits like Gerry Ford and Ronnie Biggs! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Banshees Scream 110 Posted May 20, 2005 Just have patience - Patience brings time - And time brings death Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest IYG Posted May 20, 2005 Just have patience - Patience brings time - And time brings death This sounds familiar: Fear leads to anger. Anger leads to hate. Hate leads to suffering. I sense much fear in you. Sorry, I'm on a Star Wars overload. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lospalmas7 12 Posted May 20, 2005 This sounds familiar: Your toe bone connected to your foot bone, Your foot bone connected to your ankle bone, Your ankle bone connected to your leg bone, Your leg bone connected to your knee bone, Your knee bone connected to your thigh bone, Your thigh bone connected to your hip bone, Your hip bone connected to your back bone, Your back bone connected to your shoulder bone, Your shoulder bone connected to your neck bone, Your neck bone connected to your head bone, I hear the word of the Lord! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Magere Hein 1,400 Posted May 21, 2005 This sounds familiar: Your toe bone connected to your foot bone, Your foot bone connected to your ankle bone, Your ankle bone connected to your leg bone, Your leg bone connected to your knee bone, Your knee bone connected to your thigh bone, Your thigh bone connected to your hip bone, Your hip bone connected to your back bone, Your back bone connected to your shoulder bone, Your shoulder bone connected to your neck bone, Your neck bone connected to your head bone, I hear the word of the Lord! Ooh, the Singing Detective. Now I understand the missing persons thread. regards, Hein Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
