Discuss The 2013 Deathlist

[CaptainChorizo 1,983]

Typically the last 6 weeks or so of the year a lot of low hanging fruit withers at higher rates then the rest of the year, so unless the DL committee is jinxed to bad picks this year I expect a lot of the candidates will end up being late hits in 2013.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

I have plotted on a graph the hits against progress through the year.

 

I have used 2013 (obviously), 2012, 2011 (poor year), 2008, 2003 (good years).

 

Because 2003 was very sporadic (three clusters of intense activity) I think the year to track performance against is 2008.

 

Our third hit at the beginning of Feb took us ahead of the 2008 line but they crossed again in the middle of March. We are now falling behind dramatically. However if we make the sixth hit before 150 days (30 May) and eight hits before 200 days (19 July) then I still think there is the potential for a good year but it could be 2003 all over again when all fourteen deaths occurred before the end of September.

 

I have managed to up load my graphic

 

Do you like it!

[Dr. Zorders 1,271]

Ooh awesome, there's always some whizz kid on every message board who can pump out amazing graphs or something isn't there....... look at the sophisticated graphics on that thing!

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Ooh awesome, there's always some whizz kid on every message board who can pump out amazing graphs or something isn't there....... look at the sophisticated graphics on that thing!

 

This is about statistics and numbers not graphics. My nerdish 'qualities' do not extend to computery things. I had enough problems trying to get it to display at all.

 

By the way today is day 155.

[Dr. Zorders 1,271]

Calm down I'm only teasing. Although I did notice after I posted that, that if you click on the image you do get taken to a much better one.

[Toast 16,141]

I have managed to up load my graphic

 

It makes you go blind, y'know.

[the_engineer 1,415]

I have plotted on a graph the hits against progress through the year.

 

I have used 2013 (obviously), 2012, 2011 (poor year), 2008, 2003 (good years).

 

Because 2003 was very sporadic (three clusters of intense activity) I think the year to track performance against is 2008.

 

Our third hit at the beginning of Feb took us ahead of the 2008 line but they crossed again in the middle of March. We are now falling behind dramatically. However if we make the sixth hit before 150 days (30 May) and eight hits before 200 days (19 July) then I still think there is the potential for a good year but it could be 2003 all over again when all fourteen deaths occurred before the end of September.

 

I have managed to up load my graphic

 

Do you like it!

 

Is this a rorschach test ?

 

Or am i the only one that can see '' kiil them all'' among the lines ?

[Guest Waitress]

Can the committee post next year's list on Dec 31 so I know which 95 year old's will see out the year and thusly avoid picking myself.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Following the death of Bernie Nolan we are in a similar position to 2012 & 2003 the trend line is looking like 13 deaths will be the final number so the record may be off but in 2003 there was a sudden midyear surge so if Nelson, Zsa Zsa and Gough were to oblige over the next couple of weeks we might be back on.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Tomorrow is Day 250.

 

We are now 5 deaths behind 2008 and bearly one death ahead of 2011. However this point in 2003 sparked a frenzy.

 

"Watch out for that asteroid Mr O' Toole"

[Guest Zeppo]

Another really old person not picked by the deathlist died today.My motto for next year is looking at their choices and then

go the other way

[Guest Johnny Biggs]

Uncle Ronnie is flattered but he has intention of dying soon. Don't waste your pick on him next year.

[Davey Jones' Locker 1,324]

Tomorrow is Day 250.

 

We are now 5 deaths behind 2008 and bearly one death ahead of 2011. However this point in 2003 sparked a frenzy.

 

"Watch out for that asteroid Mr O' Toole"

It is eerily quiet at the moment and it has been for quite a while. The calm before the storm?

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Tomorrow is Day 250.

 

We are now 5 deaths behind 2008 and bearly one death ahead of 2011. However this point in 2003 sparked a frenzy.

 

"Watch out for that asteroid Mr O' Toole"

It is eerily quiet at the moment and it has been for quite a while. The calm before the storm?

 

We have less than 100 days till the end of the year.

 

At this rate people might be hoping to be included on next year's list to take advantage of its magical protection.

[Magere Hein 1,400]

Tomorrow is Day 250.

 

We are now 5 deaths behind 2008 and bearly one death ahead of 2011. However this point in 2003 sparked a frenzy.

 

"Watch out for that asteroid Mr O' Toole"

It is eerily quiet at the moment and it has been for quite a while. The calm before the storm?

 

We have less than 100 days till the end of the year.

 

At this rate people might be hoping to be included on next year's list to take advantage of its magical protection.

 

Whether it's the calm before the storm remains to be seen.

 

I don't have my spreadsheets at hand, but I seem to remember one that showed that November and December are top months for DL hits, along with February and March. The differences aren't big, mind, and possibly statistically insignificant.

 

regards,

Hein

[msc 18,477]

There's been at least 2 hits in November and December 4 of the 5 years I've been visiting the site (and the time there was 1, there'd been a hit in October with Ludo Kennedy...) so it ain't over till it's over...

 

That said, this is the point where folk narrowly will on certain folk to make next years starting line, only to get "Philip Gould'd".

[Davey Jones' Locker 1,324]

I have always assumed the Nov-Dec spike is due to the onset of the northern hemisphere winter finishing a few off.

[Death Impends 7,977]

It does always seem that the winter finishes off a good few old people, usually a couple of them on DL so I think there'll be at least two or three more hits. I think the stagnation at this point can boil down to most of the picks to pay dividends earlier in the year being the cancer ones, and now the only cancer pick left is Clive James who, though poorly, will probably last into 2014 so there's no more to fall back on for another hit. Kind of like how 2009 was lackluster in the first half of the year because most of the cancer picks hanged on until summer.

[the_engineer 1,415]

I think about 3 more will die nelson will finally succome to old health along with gough whitlam and vera lynn.

[CaptainChorizo 1,983]

I predict Nov-Dec will be really big months for deatlist top 50. Maybe 5-6 hits as their is just too much high probability low hanging fruit just sitting there.

[Davey Jones' Locker 1,324]

I think about 3 more will die nelson will finally succome to old health along with gough whitlam and vera lynn.

Gough's always a wild card. He hasn't appeared in the media here for a long, long time now so his health is completely unknown.

[the_engineer 1,415]

I think about 3 more will die nelson will finally succome to old health along with gough whitlam and vera lynn.

Gough's always a wild card. He hasn't appeared in the media here for a long, long time now so his health is completely unknown.

 

Yea i think he will go like Rochus Misch nothing for a long time then a report he is dead.

 

I think this year could have one more big death though .

[charon 4,943]

Winter does spike it.

 

Humans are like fridges. They can't up the ante. Most refrigeration products die when the ambient temperature changes.

 

Bring it on...

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

I think about 3 more will die nelson will finally succome to old health along with gough whitlam and vera lynn.

 

Vera and the Death List will meet again in 2014.

[Magere Hein 1,400]

I think about 3 more will die nelson will finally succome to old health along with gough whitlam and vera lynn.

 

Vera and the Death List will meet again in 2014.

 

Urgh.

 

regards,

Hein