Bibliogryphon 9,652 Posted July 31, 2014 Even if we do all somehow die in an ebola outbreak, or a nuclear war, or both, two things are certain: The cockroaches will survive..... and Bibliogryphon will still come on the DL forums at lunchtime. The commanders of nuclear submarines were told to tune into the news on Radio 4 and if this cannot be found they are to assume that the UK infrastructure has fallen and to open their sealed orders. Think of me as reliable it is better than obsessive. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,652 Posted July 31, 2014 Listening to a medical expert on the BBC yesterday adds a little bit of context. Ebola may be 90% fatal once you have caught it but it is not very easy to catch. Most of the infections are in those caring for the ill and those preparing dead bodies. This is not to say it is not an issue but we probably won't be in for a real life rerun of Survivors as long as we maintain (or improve) hospital procedures to prevent infection and have a robust system for identifying cases and quarantining them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted July 31, 2014 It's increasing at about 10% every 3 days or so. If this hits Lagos, Delhi or Mumbai then 90% of everyone will be waving goodby within a year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,557 Posted July 31, 2014 Ebola has been largely ignored by the West for the last few decades as its been consigned to poorer African countries. As soon as it starts to risk places to make the oprhan drug principle* obsolete, work to better deal with it will occur before you can say "profit". Hemorrhagic fevers are still quite common - even in the USA, there was fourteen cases of bubonic plague in 2013. *Namely, the idea of a cure or drug which works in principle, but which, as the condition attacks only poor people or a few rare cases, isn't seen as profitable enough to make the medicine. Several of the WHO's list of medicines they consider a human right for people to get fall under this! So ebola - scary disease, nasty one, bugger if you get it, but the chances of it widespread taking out the world are rather thin. And if this recent outbreak gets the world more concerned to actually do something about it, it might help us all in the long term! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Davey Jones' Locker 1,325 Posted July 31, 2014 In today's cheerful Ebola update, Sierra Leone declares a state of emergency: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-01/sierra-leone-declares-state-of-emergency-as-ebola-toll-rises/5639772 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
themaninblack 2,112 Posted July 31, 2014 Sierra Leone are not in the Commonwealth by any chance? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Zorders 1,272 Posted July 31, 2014 Sierra Leone are not in the Commonwealth by any chance? I dunno but I've always thought they sound more like a team who play in Serie B or something... (p.s. I just checked Wikipedia and yes they are.... fuck) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted July 31, 2014 Deaths per day, averaged over the last 28 days, are running currently at about 14.25. That's 729 to date (27th July). No exact figure produced for the 29th June but straight lining between the 24th and the 2nd gives a estimate of 420 deaths. 309 in the last 28 days. I make that a 74% increase. Discounting the first 21 days of figures, this increase topped out about the 1st of July at 110%. Really if the WHO think they may have this contained and completed by the end of the year that will still produce total deaths of 1850 people. In my view that would be amazing and a real turn around in the care profile. Peak deaths per a 28 day period would top out at 372 on the 20th August. However projecting forward a 74% increase per 28 day period would kill another 16,000 people by the end of the year. With no end in sight... And 22.8 million people in 2015... Will the Rio Olympics happen with the backdrop of 1 billion deaths worldwide? And on the 12th October 2016, I predict that the tragic 90% kill off will have claimed its 6.3 billionth victim. Risks? Cure or Kill? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,557 Posted July 31, 2014 Yes, but we're talking a disease which has had 2387 cases reported...ever... until this recent outbreak. Its not nearly wide enough a sample to know what the disease would do en masse YET. Its also mostly been in isolated pockets, with limited victims. There's also the case that the more people infected per outbreak, the larger the survival rate - in the 2000 Uganda outbreak, nearly 50% of sufferers lived to tell the tale. Rather than being the outright harbinger of death, it seems to depend on underlying health issues/quality of nearby medical facilities/etc. The chap who came down with suspected Ebola in Germany in 1999, he died. [And that was one of only 2 cases in Europe - neither of which caused a mass outbreak due to isolation methods.] At the same time, there was a report that linked a plant which is a heavy source of diet in parts of West Africa, with stavving off the Ebola - not sure if anything came of that though. Even in this outbreak, it still fits in, as the area that Doctor mentioned on the forum previously worked in had saved the lives of 100 sufferers already from this current outbreak. And that is just a snippet in the news story about death and destruction, from one area. So yeah, 90% mortality comes from lack of education on the virus/access to the drugs. There's a lot of scary disease news stories out there (including a new strand of smallpox appearing in Georgia in May, and most of the worlds finest AIDS researchers being wiped out in that bloody plane) and Ebola is easily top of the list for its qualities - I think most Europeans have a race memory of the Black Death, which is similar, and we didn't defeat that either yet - but its not going to cause a worldwide crisis akin to the Spanish Flu. Also, Ali, the WHO are pushing for the widespread release, or investigation of, further medicines believed to have an effect on the Ebola virus. Unfortunately, as I alluded to above, the very numbers you quote are the types of ones the pharmaceutical companies look at, snort and say "Too small a number, there's no money in it." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rotten Ali 600 Posted July 31, 2014 Black Death, yep that killed about third of all people within a few years. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,557 Posted August 1, 2014 Well, health care has improved a bit since then. Mind you, it is important to note that what we think of Black Death was really a whole host of different plagues all at once - bubonic, hemorrhagic, and several others, alongside the usual ails of the time, yer choleras and their pals. It was a massive viral soup which it infested into. But I suppose it wouldn't help your frame of mind to know that not only does Black Death (well, bubonic) have around 15 victims a year in the USA currently(its far more common in Asia and Africa), there are signs of it becoming drug-resistant in places. But it has a 75% or there abouts mortality rate. The big disgrace in all of this is that there are almost certainly people in Africa who are dead now from this outbreak who should be alive if someone had put human need over profit. Theres been drugs believed to aide Ebola since at least 2004, and I strongly suspect since 1975 (when the European researcher infected with it the next year was cured!). As soon as it manages to infect a rich European or American, bet your bottom dollar a cure is "miraculously" found. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Davey Jones' Locker 1,325 Posted August 1, 2014 Why are we discussing Ebola across two separate threads? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Zorders 1,272 Posted August 1, 2014 Why are we discussing Ebola across two separate threads? Because it's spreading out of control? That's..... what viruses generally do! 5 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
charon 4,943 Posted August 1, 2014 Tough...one of their athletes at "the games" has been tested for it. They "say" that it was standard practice and nothing to worry about....... Youz are fucked Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest drunkasaskunk Posted August 1, 2014 So long as they give us the cricket scores before we all pop our clogs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
drunkasaskunk 197 Posted August 1, 2014 So long as they give us the cricket scores before we all pop our clogs. I wondered why I was not asked for my password. I know now. doh !!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Paul Bearer 6,134 Posted August 1, 2014 Why are we discussing Ebola across two separate threads? Now merged to the one thread. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Zorders 1,272 Posted August 1, 2014 Tough...one of their athletes at "the games" has been tested for it. They "say" that it was standard practice and nothing to worry about....... Youz are fucked What do you mean "youz"? Erm.... aren't you closer to the games than most DLers? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
charon 4,943 Posted August 1, 2014 Tough...one of their athletes at "the games" has been tested for it. They "say" that it was standard practice and nothing to worry about....... Youz are fucked What do you mean "youz"? Erm.... aren't you closer to the games than most DLers? ? Dunno, 4 1/2 hours drive? Nae cunt comes up here anyroads........ Glasgow is below the Highland Line, and much like Embro, is pretty much a Home County as far as we are concerned. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dr. Zorders 1,272 Posted August 1, 2014 Tough...one of their athletes at "the games" has been tested for it. They "say" that it was standard practice and nothing to worry about....... Youz are fucked What do you mean "youz"? Erm.... aren't you closer to the games than most DLers? ? Dunno, 4 1/2 hours drive? Nae cunt comes up here anyroads........ Glasgow is below the Highland Line, and much like Embro, is pretty much a Home County as far as we are concerned. That can be arranged though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,687 Posted August 1, 2014 Okay now the "it could come to the UK" and other similar stories are being printed. Could already fucking be here. Fucking bunch of clowns, someone needs to fucking get their finger out on this one. If their finger is already in it may be too late! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
themaninblack 2,112 Posted August 1, 2014 Interestingly the Sierra Leone 4x400m team pulled out of the semi final. Precaution? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
charon 4,943 Posted August 1, 2014 Tough...one of their athletes at "the games" has been tested for it. They "say" that it was standard practice and nothing to worry about....... Youz are fucked What do you mean "youz"? Erm.... aren't you closer to the games than most DLers? ? Dunno, 4 1/2 hours drive? Nae cunt comes up here anyroads........ Glasgow is below the Highland Line, and much like Embro, is pretty much a Home County as far as we are concerned. That can be arranged though. As long as you give them a handshake to see them on the bus............ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
charon 4,943 Posted August 1, 2014 Interestingly the Sierra Leone 4x400m team pulled out of the semi final. Precaution? Too far. I mean, that is a mile. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Davey Jones' Locker 1,325 Posted August 1, 2014 Ebola spreading more quickly than efforts to control it: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-02/who-says-ebola-out-of-control/5642914 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
