msc 18,558 Posted December 9, 2017 A shot at this, then: 1. Kirk Douglas 2. Clive James 3. Prince Philip 4. Rev Billy Graham 5. Leah Bracknell 6. George Bush Sr 7. Olivia de Havilland 8. Vera Lynn 9. Paul Gascoigne 10. Jimmy Carter 11. Queenie 12. Stephen Hawking 13. Robert Mugabe 14. Donald rump 15. Prunella Scales 16. Nobby Stiles 17. Dick Van Dyke 18. Stan lee 19. Stefan karl 20. Val kilmer 21. Denis norden 22. Greg Gilbert 23. Olivia Newton John 24. Linda Nolan 25. Tessa Jowell 26. Billy Connolly 27. John mccain 28. Franco Zeffirelli 29. Sidney poitier 30. Patrick Cryne 31. Paul Alcock 32. Dean Francis 33. Aretha Franklin 34. Fernando Ricksen 35. Gorbachev 36. Rolf Harris 37. Angela Lansbury 38. Ami Brown 39. Ronnie Wood 40. Martin Peters In no particular order. Ami Brown is my stab in the dark for "much mentioned terminal case who surprisingly appears on the Drop 40". Gone Valerie harper, doris day, shannen Doherty, Gordon banks Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Death Impends 8,049 Posted December 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, Joey Russ said: I actually considered Kumar for the list, but my gut feeling is that he seems a lot like Mario Soares for next year... EDIT: Forgot about Fernando Ricksen as well, he might make it... Ricksen a sure thing to appear IMO, he's the default "pick someone with MND" name now that Joost is gone. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sean 6,368 Posted December 9, 2017 My prediction 1)John McCain 2)Olivia Newton John 3)Leah Bracknell 4)Kirk Douglas 5)Billy Graham 6)George H W Bush 7)Prince Philip 8)Nobby Stiles 9)Vera Lynn 10)Olivia de Havilland 11)Jimmy Carter 12)Charlotte Rae 13)Doris Day 14)Tessa Howell 15)Stephen Hawking 16)Prunella Scales 17)Denis Norden 18)Barbara Bush 19)Rayya Elias 20)Leslie Philip's 21)Gerd Muller 22)Linda Nolan 23)Pope Benedict 24)Patrick Cryne 25)Henry Kissinger 26)Billy Connolly 27)Peter Carrington 28)Bob Dole 29)John Hume 30)Ray Wilson 31)Jacques Chirac 32)Stan Lee 33)Martin Peters 34)Paul Gascoigne 35)Noel Conway 36)Stefan Karl Stefannson 37)Greg Gilbert 38)Ami Brown 39)Devin Lima 40)Dean Francis Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 16,242 Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, msc said: 14. Donald rump Are you implying that the President of the USA is an arse? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,268 Posted December 9, 2017 2 minutes ago, Death Impends said: Ricksen a sure thing to appear IMO, he's the default "pick someone with MND" name now that Joost is gone. Yeah, I realize that now. Ricksen replaces Prowse (who admittedly was a shot in the dark...). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,558 Posted December 9, 2017 Just now, Toast said: Are you implying that the President of the USA is an arse? Yes, yes I am. I could change the typo, but if it's inadvertently amusing... 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,268 Posted January 6, 2018 With it being the new year and some new people stumbling on, here's a final guess at who I think will make the drop 40 this year: Kirk Douglas Leah Bracknell Clive James George Bush Sr John McCain Reverend Billy Graham Prince Philip Olivia de Haviland Olivia Newton-John Vera Lynn Nobby Stiles Stefan Karl Stefansson Paul Gascoigne Valerie Harper Doris Day Jimmy Carter Greg Gilbert Prunella Scales Robert Mugabe Donald Trump Queen Elizabeth Stan Lee Stephen Hawking Denis Norden Fernando Ricksen Val Kilmer Tessa Jowell Betty White Pope Emeritus Benedict Linda Nolan Devin Lima Dick van Dyke Bob Barker Rolf Harris Dean Francis Liam Miller Marieke Vervoort Barbara Bush Charlotte Rae Mel Brooks Thinking only Doherty and Banks fall off this year... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sean 6,368 Posted January 6, 2018 My updated prediction 1)John McCain 2)Leah Bracknell 3)Kirk Douglas 4) Clive James 5) George H W Bush 6)Billy Graham 7)Prince Philip 8)Tessa Jowell 9)Nobby Stiles 19)Olivia de Havilland 20)Stan Lee 21)Vera Lynn 22)Olivia Newton _John 23)Rayya Elias 24)Patrick Cryne 25)Denis Norden 26)Stefan Karl Stefannson 27)Marieke Vervoot 28)Robert Mugabe 29)Liam Miller 30)Stephen Hawking 31)Fernando Ricksen 32)Dean Francis 33)Greg Gilbert 34)Jimmy Carter 35)Barbara Bush 36)Stirling Moss 37)Val Kilmer 38)Morgan Tsvangirai 39)Linda Nolan 40)Mark E Smith Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,268 Posted January 6, 2018 What’s 10 - 18 on your list? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 11,091 Posted January 6, 2018 I wonder if Cryne and Elias are going to make it. It will be close. They are only names for insiders (forum members). But among those almost everyone picked them. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,268 Posted January 6, 2018 Crazy thought, I know, but what if Matt Cappotelli makes the drop 40? Headline may be a bit misleading, but a lot of people might’ve picked him if they wanted to fill the rest of their spots with a cancer person... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Death Impends 8,049 Posted January 6, 2018 Hmm 1-20 sure things, 21-31 likely, 32-40 will they or won't they? Kirk Douglas Leah Bracknell John McCain Prince Philip Olivia Newton-John Rev Billy Graham George H.W. Bush Olivia de Havilland Clive James Vera Lynn Tessa Jowell Paul Gascoigne Jimmy Carter Valerie Harper Nobby Stiles Robert Mugabe Doris Day Fernando Ricksen Stefan Karl Stefansson Greg Gilbert Marieke Vervoort Stephen Hawking Linda Nolan Stan Lee Prunella Scales Donald Trump (I said he'd drop before, mostly because Obama did in 2010 after making D40 in 2009. But Trump's unhealthy habits and massive unpopularity made me reconsider. Spade saying there's a bunch of #metoo theme teams seals the deal) Liam Miller Patrick Cryne (the big factor that makes me think he gets the extra "oomph" to make it - he was a survivor of the 2017 winning team) Rayya Elias (sort of like the above, Bert didn't pick her last year but several high-ranking teams did) Queen Elizabeth II (fully recovered, but such a massive name that alone keeps her on) Val Kilmer (now that he confirmed the cancer rumors - he might've dropped otherwise) Barbara Bush Charlotte Rae Denis Norden Dick Van Dyke Dean Francis (either sneaks on ala SKS 2017 or barely misses it ala Gilbert 2017) Devin Lima (as above) Morgan Tsvangirai Betty White (well overdue for an appearance in the vein of DVD/Doris Day, ie A-list celebrity in good health but very old) Benedict XVI (how has he not been a recurring D40 fixture yet?) Doherty (probably still on at least 20 teams, but fully recovered) and Banks (still doing ok, enough people likely get bored) fall off Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,268 Posted January 6, 2018 We both predict 37/40 of the same names, as well as predicting the same two likely drops. I believe that all 6 cases are definitely borderline cases for the drop 40 though. Elias could very well make the drop 40, considering that at least 20 teams picked her on the forums, and there could be more in droves. My gut feeling, however, is that she'll just miss out. Cryne I'm a little bit more wary on saying he'll make the drop 40, and I say that because of Kris Travis in 2016. He still appeared on a lot of teams despite being unique the previous year, but he didn't even make the top 50 that year. I think Cryne will break that point at least, but I don't know if appearing on 2 teams last year is enough, though improved teams even with casual players might push it. Tsvangirai, well, it's interesting with him since it didn't seem like a lot of the forum members have support for him. Besides you and me, there was gcreptile's and drol's B Team, Dead Cow (and even then he came in for him because he was a sub for Willow), Sean, and Eesti. The least likely of the 6 imo, but I wouldn't necessarily rule him out cause I could see people outside the forum picking him due to Mugabe's forced resignation, which he was mentioned in that coverage. Barker I think could make it due to the National Esquire bullshit, and a lot of forum members seemed to be so keen on him for some reason. Brooks I think is similar to Van Dyke/Day, ie a very well known name that despite no known health issues, he will be on a lot of teams anyways. Harris made it on in the past, so I think he might make it on again? He received more coverage since then that makes me think he might be back on. But the least likely of my three different picks to make the drop 40. If it turns out that by some strange chance that all 37 similarities make the list but neither of our 3 differences make the drop 40, however, I will be laughing so hard (extremely unlikely, I know, but stranger things have happened in the past...) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaptainChorizo 1,998 Posted January 6, 2018 1.Clive James*I think he is getting a this might be his year bump ala Forsyth last year 2.Kirk Douglas 3.Leah Bracknell 4. George H.W. Bush 5.John McCain 6.Prince Phillip 7.Rev Billy Graham 8.Nobby Stiles 9.Olivia Newton-John 10.Linda Nolan 11.Vera Lynn 12.Olivia DeHavilland 13.Zoiders Bob Mugage 14.Tessa Jowell 15.Valerie Harper 16.Paul Gasciogne 17. Fernando Ricksen 18.Jimmy Carter 19. Marieke Vervoort 20.Doris Day 21.Val Kilmer 22.Dean Francis 23.Stephen Hawking 24.Greg Gilbert 25.Stefan Karl Stefansson 26.Prunella Scales 27.Stan Lee 28.Barbara Bush 29.Liam Miller 30.Pope Ben 31.Queen Elizabeth(will see a drop in picks but hard to see a 20+ drop which is needed for her to miss drop 40) 32.Dick Van Dyke 33.Rayya Elias 34.Sterling Moss 35.Patrick Cryne 36.Betty White 37.Shannon Doherty(Similiar to when Douglas/Franklin were speculated a ton 1 year had a huge drop in picks the following year but still held onto enough to sneak back in) 38.Charlotte Rae 39.Dennis Norden 40.Bob Barker(Had the highly circulated pic of him at his wife's graveyard in National Enquirer this year.Will see an uptick in picks,just depends on if its only 10-15 or 20-30. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 11,091 Posted January 6, 2018 As I am going through the teams already posted, I wonder who is going to make the Drop 40. Well, the obvious entries are in. I did not expect Linda Nolan to make it, but it seems she will. Possibly Dean Francis and Patrick Cryne as well. But there is a difference between the active forum members (posting their teams) and the other DDP players. Out of a bit more than 30 teams I've calculated scores for, Rayya Elias was picked 21 times. But who outside of our circle knew about her? A Drop 40 member will need to be on about 35 teams. That will be interesting to see. Same goes for Patrick Cryne with 16 people who have picked him so far. A bit of a fringe name. Similar situation though a bit less extreme for Dean Francis, also picked 16 times, but at least a bit more well-known. Tessa Jowell was picked 17 times, so I guess she will be in. And I have Marieke Vervoort at 22. She will make it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaptainChorizo 1,998 Posted January 7, 2018 If their is a ton of sex scandal theme teams perhaps a Woody Allen,Polanski etc type name making a surprise drop 40 entrance who was only on a handful of teams last year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,268 Posted January 7, 2018 5 hours ago, CaptainChorizo said: If their is a ton of sex scandal theme teams perhaps a Woody Allen,Polanski etc type name making a surprise drop 40 entrance who was only on a handful of teams last year. If any one of them makes the drop 40, it’s going to be Harvey Weinstein imo... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,268 Posted January 20, 2018 On 1/5/2018 at 18:22, Joey Russ said: With it being the new year and some new people stumbling on, here's a final guess at who I think will make the drop 40 this year: Kirk Douglas Leah Bracknell Clive James George Bush Sr John McCain Reverend Billy Graham Prince Philip Olivia de Haviland Olivia Newton-John Vera Lynn Nobby Stiles Stefan Karl Stefansson Paul Gascoigne Valerie Harper Doris Day Jimmy Carter Greg Gilbert Prunella Scales Robert Mugabe Donald Trump Queen Elizabeth Stan Lee Stephen Hawking Denis Norden Fernando Ricksen Val Kilmer Tessa Jowell Betty White Pope Emeritus Benedict Linda Nolan Devin Lima Dick van Dyke Bob Barker Rolf Harris Dean Francis Liam Miller Marieke Vervoort Barbara Bush Charlotte Rae Mel Brooks Thinking only Doherty and Banks fall off this year... 35/41. Didn’t guess Kissinger or Gascoine, and all 4 Elias, Cryne, and especially Ricketts and Nevin were surprise drop 40 entrants. Pleased with my result though... EDIT: Val Kilmer didn’t make it, but Leslie Phillips did, so 34/41. Still a great result though... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the_engineer 1,415 Posted January 21, 2018 Liam Miller is the biggest surprise for me .Yes he has a pancreatic cancer but we don't know if its terminal or at what stage . There is a 5 year survival rate of 70% he was in my top 25 but i think he'll be one for 2019, 2020. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sean 6,368 Posted January 21, 2018 34/40 Pretty good. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sean 6,368 Posted January 21, 2018 40 minutes ago, the_engineer said: Liam Miller is the biggest surprise for me .Yes he has a pancreatic cancer but we don't know if its terminal or at what stage . There is a 5 year survival rate of 70% he was in my top 25 but i think he'll be one for 2019, 2020. The 5 year survival rate is 3% 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sean 6,368 Posted January 21, 2018 And less than a quarter of those diagnosed last 12 months. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the_engineer 1,415 Posted January 21, 2018 1 hour ago, Sean said: The 5 year survival rate is 3% Yes your right . This website you think its talking about pancreatic cancer but starts talking about general cancer. https://www.cancer.org/cancer/pancreatic-cancer/detection-diagnosis-staging/survival-rates.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,558 Posted January 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Sean said: The 5 year survival rate is 3% Beyond the stats, lots of little things can decide you on a deadpool candidate (how grim Tessa Jowell looked in December, for example), but in the case of Miller, what might have shifted a lot of people, imo, was Martin O'Neill's interview about the diagnosis. MON looked like he was nearly in tears after seeing Miller, would have made you think you think we were talking weeks instead of months. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 11,091 Posted January 21, 2018 I had expected Miller in the Top Ten, but it looks as if the share of US deadpoolers has increased. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
