Predict The Drop 40

[Sean 5,998]

Updated prediction

1)Kirk Douglas

2)Clive James

3)Billy Graham

4)Vera Lynn

5)Bruce Forsyth

6)Prince Philip

7)George H W Bush

8)Leah Bracknell

9)Peter Sallis

10)Gord Downie

11)Stefan Karl Stefannson

12)Tony Booth

13)Joost Van der Westhuizen

14)Olivia de Havilland

15)Denis Norden

16)Jimmy Carter

17)Ian Brady

18)Stephen Hawking

19)Glen Campbell

20)Paul Gascoigne

21)Leslie Phillips

22)Helen Fawkes

23)Daisy Berkowitz

24)Errol Christie

25)Liz Dawn

26)Nobby Stiles

27)Terry Jones

28)Betty White

29)King Michael of Romania

30)Mary Tyler Moore

31)Queen Elizabeth II

32)Kenny Sansom

33)Billy Connolly

34)Ray Wilson

35)Prunella Scales

36)Donald Trump

37)Hugh Hefner

38)John Noakes

39)Terry Jones

40)Jerry Lewis

[CaptainChorizo 1,906]

1.Kirk Douglas

2.Rev Billy Graham

3.Clive James

4.Prince Phillip

5.George Bush Sr

6.Bruce Forsyth

7.Leah Bracknell

8.Peter Sallis

9.Vera Lynn

10.Ian Brady

11.Glen Campbell

12.Olivia DeHavilland

13.Valerie Harper

14.Joost

15.Robert Mugabe

16.Gord Downie

17.Gazza

18.Queen Elizabeth

19.Tony Booth

20.Errol Christie

21.Jimmy Carter

22.Nobby Stiles

23.King Michael Of Romania

24.Jerry Lewis

25.Pope Nazi

26.Leslie Phillips

 

These are the one's who could go either way

 

27.Liz Dawn

28.Robbie Rotten

29.Daisy Berkowitz

30.Doris Day

31.Sara Coward

32.Jacques Chirac

33.Mario Soares

34.Terry Jones

35.Prunella Scales

36.Stephen Hawking

37.Peter Skellern

38.Dennis Norden

39.Mary Tyler Moore

40.Steve Hewlett

 

 

The wildcard in this how much will Hawking,Berry,MTM,DVD benefit be from being at the bottom of the drop 40 last year and people because of the new rule spefically taking a gambit on them instead of a different well known old person who finished around 45- 50th or so. On paper none of those 5 had any news come out in the last year to spike the amount of people who would pick them. Same thing with Fawkes a lot of top teams dropped her this year,in theory the amount teams Fawkes is on should be stable or slightly lower.

[gcreptile 10,234]

Let me see... The spike in new participants will probably lead to an increase in "household" names, so more Kirk Douglas, less Errol Christie... let's see

 

1. Kirk Douglas

2. Billy Graham

3. Prince Philipp

4. Queen Elizabeth II

5. Leah Bracknell

6. Vera Lynn

7. Clive James

8. Bruce Forsyth

9. Paul Gascoigne

10. George Bush Sr.

11. Joost Van Der Westhuizen

12. George Bush Sr.

13. Jacques Chirac

14. Olivia De Havilland (somehow decreasing her standing in spite of her three-digit-age)

15. Gordon Downie

16. Glen Campbell

17. Jimmy Carter

18. Valerie Harper (people "give up" on her)

19. Peter Sallis

20. Stan Lee

21. Ian Brady

22. King Michael of Romania

23. Tony Booth

24. Mary Tyler Moore

25. Jake Lamotta

 

Now it's not in order anymore

26. Doris Day

27. Robert Mugabe

28. Denis Norden

29. Stephen Hawking

30. Desmond Tutu

31. Terry Jones

32. Betty White

 

And then it gets interesting:

33. Daisy Berkowitz? (possible, he was on it before, but people may get tired of picking him, just when the time is right)

34. Val Kilmer (very prominent Daily Mail fodder)

35. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (was on it before I think?)

36. Shannen Doherty (she's probably actually seriously ill)

37. Jerry Lewis? (possibly dropping a few places, that one interview might have gone both ways)

38. Jimmy Snuka? (I'd guess so)

39. Pope Benedikt XVI (likely choice, I'd say)

40. Hugh Hefner? (all those rumours of ill health)

 

But these last names could easily get kicked out by, say,

Peter Skellern - apparently popular enough, but the announcement of his illness was a little hidden behind his desire to become a priest.

John Wetton - right on the cusp of the Drop 40 I'd say, maybe just a tad too insider-y

Greg Gilbert - like John Wetton, only a better pick

Gordon Banks (nr. 29 in 2016) - though I think he's too healthy to appear again

Dick Van Dyke (nr. 38 in 2016) - though people might also judge him as too healthy

Stefan Karl Stefansson - because of his internet fame

Valeri Spiridonov

Errol Christie - his appearance on the DeathList might just be indicative of enough fame

Nobby Stiles - a better pick than Gordon Banks, in my opinion

Lord Carrington - must be a prominent pick for new players

 

Who will not appear?

Herman Wouk, Pierre Cardin, Javier Perez De Cuellar, Bob Dole, Mario Soares, Leslie Phillips, David Rockefeller, Chuck Berry (has a new album out!), John Noakes, Henry Kissinger, Helmut Kohl

 

Though I guess it might be possible, if new players look at the DeathList in the final days in 2016 and go "Herman Wouk is still alive!" (where have I heard that before?), him, or Dole, Kohl, De Cuellar, Kissinger or Phillips may appear. That would probably mean that Wetton, or Christie are out.

[The Mad Hatter 1,091]

When do we get the results.

[DevonDeathTrip 2,290]

I'm hoping Al-Bagdhdadi makes the top forty. I hesitated before making him captain, but am reasonably confident he should deliver on his potential and deal with the responsibility I have entrusted him with.

 

Should he fail in his task, there will be no third chance for him.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

I think Christie will make the drop 40 due to the fact he was on DQSBP last year. He's also more famous than Kris Travis was. Wetton on the other hand doesn't has as big of a shot, but we never know

[Death Impends 7,373]

A few weeks back, I compiled retrospective Drop 40s for the years before 2011, since before 2011 the DDP yearly stats only covered the top 10-25. (though I didn't attempt 2003 because competition was so small, granted I did attempt 2004 which was also slim on teams) The most interesting thing, IMO, was that Christodoulos barely sneaked in the 2008 Drop 40. Proving that even back then, a cert to die and obit, often championed on the forum but not all that well known pre-illness, still could sneak on.

[msc 17,762]

They'd be quite interesting to see.

[Death Impends 7,373]

Over I go to the stats thread, then.

[gcreptile 10,234]

I forgot to think about Val Kilmer and Shannen Doherty. Both are candidates. I'll update my guesses.

 

Edit: Kilmer and Doherty replace Skellern and Wetton.

[gcreptile 10,234]

Another post (I must be crazy)... could Greg Gilbert make the Drop 40? That would have been the elusive 26-point-joker after all...

[Sir Creep 7,013]

Another post (I must be crazy)... could Greg Gilbert make the Drop 40? That would have been the elusive 26-point-joker after all...

Jesus Christ how much IS the Drop 40 bonus??

[gcreptile 10,234]

 

Another post (I must be crazy)... could Greg Gilbert make the Drop 40? That would have been the elusive 26-point-joker after all...

Jesus Christ how much IS the Drop 40 bonus??

 

Three points - (10+3)*2=26

[gcreptile 10,234]

Hmm, we need at least 14 more names.... who could it be....

 

1. John McCain

2. Olivia Newton-John

3. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (already was on it 2 years ago, I think)

4. Johnny Hallyday

5. Benedikt XVI (how come he's not on there, yet?)

6. Dilip Kumar

7. Greg Gilbert

8. Franco Zeffirelli

9. Charlotte Rae

10. Lord Carrington

11. Herman Wouk

12. Bob Barker

13. Linda Nolan

14. Salvatore Riina

 

However, I think we need a few more because some picks lose popularity (Shannen Doherty, Gordon Banks, QE II) and we might have more losses.

So maybe Bob Dole and Betty White as well.

Edit: Also, Jill Gascoine.

[Death Impends 7,373]

I think Trump and Banks will fall off, Doherty and maybe Kilmer stay on in the lower echelons before falling off in 2019 (in the same way Wilko Johnson remained a Drop 40 pick the year after his lifesaving surgery). The remaining 22 names are probably on till they drop.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

The thing about Trump is that he’s very much hated by about 70% of the population. I think Trump will cling on to the drop 40 until he leaves office because of how hated he is worldwide...

[CaptainChorizo 1,906]

If Rayya Elias defies the odds and makes it to Jan 1, I would think she is just as likely to make drop 40 as Greg Gilbert.Also I am sure btwn now and Jan someone new that is well known will take a fall for the worse and get a spot on the drop 40.

[CastAway 475]

Whether actually good candidates or not, I suspect both the Queen and Hawking make a return - they're old enough / sick enough that some people will try and take the chance, and also popular enough to be good picks for casual players. Same with Prince Philip.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

HM. Let's try to see who might make the drop 40 next year (not in any particular order). 

The obvious ones:

1. Kirk Douglas
2. Clive James
3. Prince Phillip
4. Billy Graham
5. Leah Bracknell
6. George Bush Sr
7. Olivia de Haviland
8. Vera Lynn
9. Paul Gasciogne
10. Jimmy Carter
11. Valerie Harper
12. Doris Day
13. Robert Mugabe
14. Nobby Stiles
15. Stefan Karl Stefansson
16. John McCain
17. Olivia Newton-John
18. Greg Gilbert 
19. Charlotte Rae 
20. Rayya Elias

Those are the ones guaranteed a spot imo. Then it gets interesting. These next names are likely, but they aren't necessarily a guarantee per se:

21. Queen Elizabeth

22. Stan Lee

23. Pope Benedict

24. Donald Trump (I think he'll stay on due to the controversial nature of his presidency)

25. Morgan Tsvangirai

26. Prunella Scales

27. Stephen Hawking

28. Tessa Jowell

29. Liam Miller

Now we are getting to the anyone's guess area, where a huge number of names could take place for the remainder of the drop 40. There has to be 11 more names, so if i had to take a guess:

30. Bob Barker

31. Patrick Cryne??? (He's only on two teams this year and I'm not entirely sure if he'll catch on or not)

32. Dick van Dyke

33. Herman Wouk

34. Linda Nolan

35. Betty White

36. Johnny Ruffo??

37. Mark E Smith??

38. David Prowse??

39. Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi??

40. Lord Peter Carrington??

 

The last five names in particular I'm not sure if they'll catch on enough to make the drop 40, but you never know...

[gcreptile 10,234]

Val Kilmer might stay on. Shannen Doherty will not. Possibly Dilip Kumar. Possibly Gordon Banks and Ian St. John on pure name recognition. Though I suspect that one will die the year they drop out, like Helen Fawkes and Daisy Berkowitz. Jimmy Greaves is missing. Apart from that, Joey's list is probably 35/40 correct, at least.

[Life Is Beautiful 695]

On 12/28/2014 at 12:26, Predictor said:

Dana Plato had drug addiction problems, not mental issues. I doubt Amanda would commit suicide, she’ll calm down sooner or later.

Yeah because mental issues NEVER lead to suicide. For God's sake we've had two very notorious and sad examples this year alone.

[CaptainChorizo 1,906]

Kumar is the biggest WC, either way it wouldn't shock me if only 20 or so people predicted him or if triple the amount had him on their team. He is a dead cert,but maybe litlle known outside this forum and because of his age a lot of top players might pass on him.

[Life Is Beautiful 695]

3 minutes ago, CaptainChorizo said:

Kumar is the biggest WC, either way it wouldn't shock me if only 20 or so people predicted him or if triple the amount had him on their team. He is a dead cert,but maybe litlle known outside this forum and because of his age a lot of top players might pass on him.

 

Oh dear Lord...

[Joey Russ 7,119]

Just now, Life Is Beautiful said:

 

Oh dear Lord...

I figure that while those who are interested in culture will know him, the general dead pooling population (mostly your average joe who might get 5 hits) won't recognize who he is...

[Joey Russ 7,119]

I actually considered Kumar for the list, but my gut feeling is that he seems a lot like Mario Soares for next year...

EDIT: Forgot about Fernando Ricksen as well, he might make it...