General Election Game

[YoungWillz 21,076]

Now, here's a thing.

 

Say I predict that a seat won in a by election by a party that didn't win in 2015 is won back by the party that did win in 2015.

 

For example, I say Richmond Park will be won by the Tories in 2017. The seat changes hands from the Lib Dems back to the Tories who won at the 2015 GE. Do I still get the 2015 majority plus a half, or doesn't that qualify, because the seat hasn't changed hands from 2015?

 

I'll be entering, but it would be good to know the ruling on this.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

It must be most recent election to dissolution I would suggest? That's who's defending the seat in 2017. So for Richmond Park if Goldsmith regains, he gets Olney's majority + half from 2016. Otherwise it's a bit silly.

[Deathray 2,941]

8 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

Now, here's a thing.

 

Say I predict that a seat won in a by election by a party that didn't win in 2015 is won back by the party that did win in 2015.

 

For example, I say Richmond Park will be won by the Tories in 2017. The seat changes hands from the Lib Dems back to the Tories who won at the 2015 GE. Do I still get the 2015 majority plus a half, or doesn't that qualify, because the seat hasn't changed hands from 2015?

 

I'll be entering, but it would be good to know the ruling on this.

 

Incumbent majority. 

[Deathray 2,941]

You have a month.

[CoffinLodger 1,248]

Feel free to laugh at me, but I have a feeling that Jeremy Corbyn will do a lot better than anyone expects. I don't think he will be PM, but I think he'll do well enough to keep his job as labour leader , at least for another 2 or 3 years.

[msc 18,489]

He could also do so badly he stays on as leader ie down to 20 odd MPs, so the renomination threshold becomes 2, and Abbott and another don't let him resign.

[Deathray 2,941]

1 minute ago, msc said:

He could also do so badly he stays on as leader ie down to 20 odd MPs, so the renomination threshold becomes 2, and Abbott and another don't let him resign.

 

Even has the worst election Labour could imagine he'd manage to keep at least a hundred seats in the North East, North West, Wales and the Midlands where the majority's are massive.

[msc 18,489]

Yeah, even in the worst case scenario Labour should be able to keep hold of Coatbridge, Glasgow North and Kirkcaldy.

 

Don't take "20 seats" as a serious prediction!

 

They could lose around 40-50 on UKIP/Tory vote transference alone though, and thats before any Labour/Tory shift. So, 70+ seats lose isn't unrealistic.

[Deathray 2,941]

I've just penned some figures and it's gives the Tories a 132 seat majority. It's based on averaging out the 15 most recent polls on wikipedia (electoral calc doesn't let you edit the SNP figure though)

 

Conservative 36.9% Labour 30.4% UKIP 12.6% Lib Dems 7.9% SNP 4.7% Green 3.8%

Conservative 46.5% Labour 28.6% UKIP 6.6% Lib Dems 9.8% SNP 4.2% Green 2.8%

Estimated Swing +9.6% Labour -1.8% UKIP -6.0% Lib Dems -1.9% SNP -0.5% Green -1.0%

 

They swung with; Tory 391 Labour 174 Lib 7 SNP 55 Green 1 Plaid 4 NIre 18

 

That said I think you could probably knock a few they've given Labour/Tories across to Lib Dems.

 

 

[Deathray 2,941]

13 minutes ago, msc said:

Yeah, even in the worst case scenario Labour should be able to keep hold of Coatbridge, Glasgow North and Kirkcaldy.

 

Don't take "20 seats" as a serious prediction!

 

They could lose around 40-50 on UKIP/Tory vote transference alone though, and thats before any Labour/Tory shift. So, 70+ seats lose isn't unrealistic.

 

If Liverpool Walton, Knowesly or Bootle ever fall from Labour control I run around Westminster carrying a red flag and singing the internationale naked. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,593]

The Lib Dems have local pockets of resistance so the national figures probably do them a disservice.

 

[Ulitzer95 12,677]

This is very unnecessarily complicated. Why don't we just predict the seat numbers and the closest to the result wins?

As for the prediction above... I doubt the SNP will get 55 this time round. More like 45-50. The Greens will go up to 2. Libs probably on something like 15-20.

[Deathray 2,941]

36 minutes ago, Ulitzer95 said:

This is very unnecessarily complicated. Why don't we just predict the seat numbers and the closest to the result wins?

As for the prediction above... I doubt the SNP will get 55 this time round. More like 45-50. The Greens will go up to 2. Libs probably on something like 15-20.

 

Because then I can't do my best David Dimbleby on election night.

[YoungWillz 21,076]

Ok, here's my entry:

 

01. Morley and Outwood (Con) - to be taken by Lab

02. Eastbourne (Con) - to be taken by Lib Dems

03. Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Con) - to be taken by SNP

04. Twickenham (Con) - to be taken by Lib Dems

05. Croydon Central (Con) - to be taken by Lab

06. City of Chester (Lab) - to be taken by Con

07. North East Derbyshire (Lab) - to be taken by Con

08. Edinburgh South (Lab) - to be taken by SNP

09. Blackpool South (Lab) - to be taken by Con

10. Bristol East (Lab) - to be taken by Con

11. Orkney and Shetland (LibDems) - to be taken by SNP

12. Sheffield Hallam (LibDems) - to be taken by Lab

13. East Renfrewshire (SNP) - to be taken by Con

14. North East Fife (SNP) - to be taken by LibDems

15. Richmond Park (LibDems) - to be taken by Con

16. Wrexham (Lab) - to be taken by Con

17. Bury South (Lab) - to be taken by Con

18. Birmingham Yardley (Lab) - to be taken by LibDems

19. Cardiff Central (Lab) - to be taken by LibDems

20. Gedling (Lab) - to be taken by Con

21. Boston and Skegness (Con) - to be taken by UKIP

22. Yeovil (Con) - to be taken by LibDems

23. South Thanet (Con) - to be taken by UKIP

24. Westminster North (Lab) - to be taken by Con

25. Birmingham Erdington (Lab) - to be taken by Con.

[msc 18,489]

Three Labour gains, YW? Blimey, you're optimistic.

[YoungWillz 21,076]

I've predicted UKIP gains too. Must still be on a high after the Portugal win in Eurovish!

[msc 18,489]

Dont waste the Eurovision dosh on it though! Hah.

[msc 18,489]

Especially UKIP.

 

This Kipper..

 

 

 

... has a better chance of winning a constituency than the political party, imo.

 

 

[Deathray 2,941]

Expecting anybody to enter this waiting until the 7th given narrowing of polls recently. But this is your friendly reminder that there is 10 days until the election.

[YoungWillz 21,076]

As the only entrant so far, could this be the first pool I could win?

[Bibliogryphon 9,593]

19 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

As the only entrant so far, could this be the first pool I could win?

I sent in my team via pm ages ago.

[YoungWillz 21,076]

1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

I sent in my team via pm ages ago.

So I could win...

[Bibliogryphon 9,593]

37 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

So I could win...

More than likely 

 

[Heef 166]

I'll have a stab. Apologies if any of these names are out of date. Hopefully about right. Banking on a ~5% swing to Tory, with some local adjustments in favour of Labour and some bigger swings where large UKIP vote shifts to Tory.

 

1. City of Chester (CON gain)

2. Ilford North (CON gain)

3 Southampton Itchen (LAB gain)

4. Morley and Outwood (LAB gain)

5. Vale of Clwyd (LAB gain)

6. Dudley North (CON gain)

7. Thurrock (LAB gain)

8. Mansfield (CON gain)

9. Blackpool South (CON gain)

10. Brighton Kemptown (LAB gain)

11. Bristol NW (LAB gain)

12. Derby North (LAB gain)

13. Berwickshire (CON gain)

14. Dumfries and Galloway (CON gain)

15. Sheffield Hallam (LAB gain)

16. Carshalton and Wallington (CON gain)

17. Norfolk North (CON gain)

18. Clacton (CON gain)

19. Richmond Park (CON gain)

20. Hove (CON gain)

21. Plymouth Moor View (LAB gain)

22. Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport (LAB gain)

23. Bolton North East (CON gain)

24. Birmingham Erdington (CON gain)

25. Darlington (CON gain)

 

[Sean 6,339]

Here is my entry.It is more a wishlist but I reckon I will get a few 

 

 1) Hackney North and Stoke Newington  (CON Gain)

2) Bolsover (Con Gain)

3)West Bromwich East (Con Gain)

4)Birmingham Egbaston (Con Gain)

5)Vauxhall (LD Gain)

6)Stoke on Trent Central (Con gain)

7)Halifax (Con Gain)

8)Lancaster and Fleetwood (Con Gain)

9)Walsall North (Con Gain)

10)Islington North (Con Gain)

11)Islington South and Finsbury (Con Gain)

12)Hayes and Harlington (Con Gain)

13)Sheffield Hallam (Labour gain)

14)Westmorland and Lonsdale( Con Gain)

15)Croydon Central (Lab Gain)

16)Gower (LAB Gain)

17)Newport West (Con Gain)

18)Pontypridd (Con Gain)

19)Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk (Lib dem gain)

20)Brentford and Isleworth (Con Gain)

21)Norwich South (Con gain)

22)Enfield North (Con Gain)

23)Birmingham Yardley (Lib Dem Gain)

24)Heywood and Middleton (Tory Gain)

25)Britol East (Con Gain)