2019 General Election - 4 way Clusterfuck or a End to Brexit?

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,344]

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

 

Looking at his low SNP seat share those ten would go roughly 5 and 5 to the Tories and Labour? 

 

 

Anyway an expansion seat wise on my apropos of nout prediction above.

 

Great Britain

Conservative 293

Labour 271

SNP 45

Lib Dem 15

Plaid 5

Speaker 1

Green 1

Independent 1 (Claire Wright - Devon)

 

Northern Irish 

Sinn Fein 6

SDLP 3

DUP 8

Sylvia Hermon 1

 

The long and short of it is no viable  Tory government. 

And no real viable Labour government, hence the minority where Labour try and pull a trade deal together to take back to the people which squeaks through with the support of Lib Dems and SNP (giving it a majority in the commons) and a new GE is held alongside the ref.

 

Sylvia Hermon isn't standing. 

[TQR 14,396]

5 hours ago, msc said:

 

Add the Speaker, Caroline Lucas, 4 Plaid, and 18 N Irish MPs and you still have 10 to play with there.

I know; Independents. Dominic Grieve, for example, looks like he could win his seat. My constituency has an Independent bloke, Kerry Smith, who, despite being so poisonous he was kicked out of UKIP, is very popular among cunts here and likely to do well. IGC could get a couple, too.

[Deathray 2,940]

5 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said:

I know; Independents. Dominic Grieve, for example, looks like he could win his seat. My constituency has an Independent bloke, Kerry Smith, who, despite being so poisonous he was kicked out of UKIP, is very popular among cunts here and likely to do well. IGC could get a couple, too.

 

 

Trust me - there will not be 10 independent MPs.

[Deathray 2,940]

7 hours ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Sylvia Hermon isn't standing. 

 

Ah okay, UUP then not her.

[msc 18,472]

Independents? Claire Wright in Devon has the best chance, Jason Zadrozny in Ashfield is a maybe, Dominic Grieve if things really go his way on the day, and... did you hear about the SNP chap in Kirkcaldy suspended from the party for antisemitism? It was too late to remove SNP from his name on the ballot paper, so I think he'll be elected as an independent Nat.

[Deathray 2,940]

2 minutes ago, msc said:

Independents? Claire Wright in Devon has the best chance, Jason Zadrozny in Ashfield is a maybe, Dominic Grieve if things really go his way on the day, and... did you hear about the SNP chap in Kirkcaldy suspended from the party for antisemitism? It was too late to remove SNP from his name on the ballot paper, so I think he'll be elected as an independent Nat.

 

Claire Wright will get elected.

Agree with you on the SNP.

 

George Galloway might take West Brom on a really bad night for Labour.

Again on a really bad night for Labour the Ashfield Independents might take.

 

That takes you to 4, no idea where the other 6 Quim is getting come from. 

 

Talk of people like Kerry Smith winning seats like Basildon is insanity though. 

 

[msc 18,472]

What hurts Claire Wright as *only Tory threat in her seat* is, as a Peoples Voter, she has the Lib Dems AND The Greens standing against her. This happens in a lot of seats.

 

Zadrozny is a Brexiteer so might take votes off the Tories in Ashfield. I think that seat is the Tories to lose tbh even if Labour shore up their defence.

 

North East Hampshire is surely ripe for the overdue election of Howling Lord Hope, leader of the Monster Raving Loony Party...

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25 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

Claire Wright will get elected.

Agree with you on the SNP.

 

George Galloway might take West Brom on a really bad night for Labour.

Again on a really bad night for Labour the Ashfield Independents might take.

 

That takes you to 4, no idea where the other 6 Quim is getting come from. 

 

Talk of people like Kerry Smith winning seats like Basildon is insanity though. 

 

Go to Basildon mate. They love him. Sadly.

[Deathray 2,940]

5 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

Go to Basildon mate. They love him. Sadly.

 

They might love him (or more realistically, the vocal minority who support him and have to shout louder than everyone else, love him) but he ain't beating the Tories there.

 

He'll come 2nd or 3rd at best.

 

It's notoriously difficult for independents to win seats. And there's nothing to suggest he'll break through,

[En Passant 3,741]

4 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

Go to Basildon mate. They love him. Sadly.

Wondered what that funny smell was.

Occasionally play in pool competitions in BasVegas, so I know how to get there (and out again).

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18 minutes ago, En Passant said:

Wondered what that funny smell was.

Occasionally play in pool competitions in BasVegas, so I know how to get there (and out again).

The important thing!

 

21 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

They might love him (or more realistically, the vocal minority who support him and have to shout louder than everyone else, love him) but he ain't beating the Tories there.

 

He'll come 2nd or 3rd at best.

 

It's notoriously difficult for independents to win seats. And there's nothing to suggest he'll break through,

 

I’d genuinely not be surprised in the slightest if the votes for him were at least enough to unseat Stephen Metcalfe.

 

People on all ends of the spectrum (political and otherwise) are so disenfranchised that’s this election of all is one where we can expect surprise results. The ‘missing 10’ as it were are likely, in my view, to go to well-campaigned for Independents, or maybe a couple for parties like the Greens, or one for Anna Soubry’s racket.

 

The prospect of all outcomes of this election are all scary. But it’s not boring. And the result won’t be.

[Deathray 2,940]

58 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

The important thing!

 

 

I’d genuinely not be surprised in the slightest if the votes for him were at least enough to unseat Stephen Metcalfe.

 

People on all ends of the spectrum (political and otherwise) are so disenfranchised that’s this election of all is one where we can expect surprise results. The ‘missing 10’ as it were are likely, in my view, to go to well-campaigned for Independents, or maybe a couple for parties like the Greens, or one for Anna Soubry’s racket.

 

The prospect of all outcomes of this election are all scary. But it’s not boring. And the result won’t be.

 

There's a huge difference between the votes being enough to unseat Metcalfe and hand the seat to Labour and Kerry Smith winning the seat.

 

No, it's not a boring election in many ways, but in many ways it is. 

 

I'll put my house on the CUK-TIGGERS not winning any seats.

 

Frank Field might win his seat for 'Birkenhead 4 Social Justice' 

[msc 18,472]

Certainly some of the Labour "old" seats will go - a Workington or Stoke. But there maybe a Canterbury type result too, where the combination of younger demographics, and a huge Remain vote in 2016 bring a completely unexpected gain for Labour. Somewhere like Altrincham (held by Tories since 1922), or Chelsea (since 1910)...

[TQR 14,396]

13 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

There's a huge difference between the votes being enough to unseat Metcalfe and hand the seat to Labour and Kerry Smith winning the seat.

 

No, it's not a boring election in many ways, but in many ways it is. 

 

I'll put my house on the CUK-TIGGERS not winning any seats.

 

Frank Field might win his seat for 'Birkenhead 4 Social Justice' 

And today’s special guest on Pointing Out The Bloody Obvious is Kinnock 

My point broadly was that this is the likely outcome, though, being an election where one can very much expect the unexpected much more than in recent memory, him getting the seat could happen. Not saying it’s the most likely outcome, but basically, I see there being more independent MPs elected than the norm (of about 1).

 

Headline is, neither major party is gonna get anywhere near 300 seats in my view. And, frankly, neither do they deserve to. Particularly the cunts that’ll inevitably get more.

[Deathray 2,940]

2 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

And today’s special guest on Pointing Out The Bloody Obvious is Kinnock 

My point broadly was that this is the likely outcome, though, being an election where one can very much expect the unexpected much more than in recent memory, him getting the seat could happen. Not saying it’s the most likely outcome, but basically, I see there being more independent MPs elected than the norm (of about 1).

 

Headline is, neither major party is gonna get anywhere near 300 seats in my view. And, frankly, neither do they deserve to. Particularly the cunts that’ll inevitably get more.

 

You predicted ten independents, and you're still yet to point out ten independents with a hope in hell of winning the seat their standing in.

 

You've got Dom Grieve and Claire Wright if your really lucky?

 

Where the bloody hell do the other eight come from?

 

Also I'll be amazed if the Tories don't get 300 seats.

[TQR 14,396]

4 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

You predicted ten independents, and you're still yet to point out ten independents with a hope in hell of winning the seat their standing in.

 

You've got Dom Grieve and Claire Wright if your really lucky?

 

Where the bloody hell do the other eight come from?

 

Also I'll be amazed if the Tories don't get 300 seats.

I’ll do a more detailed exit poll when I don’t have work to do.

 

As for the Tories and the number of seats they get, what I would do at this point if I was a certain person from Americaland who refers to himself in the third person is bet you five pounds of coffee that they don’t. Fortunately I’m not, but I’m open to a charity bet on it.

 

Their campaign is slipping. They’ll fail.

[Toast 16,140]

2 hours ago, msc said:

What hurts Claire Wright as *only Tory threat in her seat* is, as a Peoples Voter, she has the Lib Dems AND The Greens standing against her. This happens in a lot of seats.

 

 

Why is that?  I thought they said they were doing a deal (the LDs, the Greens and Plaid Cymru) not to stand against each other.

That's why I was surprised (and annoyed) to see the Greens fielding a candidate in my constituency.  They did well to win several seats in the recent council elections, but they have no chance of winning the seat here.  Whereas the LDs have held this seat in the not-too-distant past and are the only ones with any chance of ousting the Conservatives.

[msc 18,472]

3 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Why is that?  I thought they said they were doing a deal (the LDs, the Greens and Plaid Cymru) not to stand against each other.

That's why I was surprised (and annoyed) to see the Greens fielding a candidate in my constituency.  They did well to win several seats in the recent council elections, but they have no chance of winning the seat here.  Whereas the LDs have held this seat in the not-too-distant past and are the only ones with any chance of ousting the Conservatives.

 

They made a big to do about it, but the results was the Greens and Plaid standing down in some good targets for the Lib Dems, and the Lib Dems standing down in some places like Isle of Wight that nobody bar the Tories stand a chance in. It was pretty much a smokescreen to boost Lib Dem MP numbers that the Greens and Plaid completely fell for. Plaid could easily lose half their MPs (Ceredigion is marginal Plaid/Lib Dem, Arfon is super-marginal Plaid/Labour with no Greens or Lib Dems standing now) as a result!

 

Meanwhile some really obvious "do a deal" seats haven't got one and are likely to produce Tory MPs based on split opposition. To pick three other than the aforementioned Devon East: St Ives (Lib Dem target, 300 votes in it, popular ex-Lib Dem MP running, Greens standing), Stroud (Remainer Labour MP, opposed by Greens Molly Scott-Cato) and Canterbury.

[TQR 14,396]

One of the best bits of advertising I’ve ever seen:

 

[Deathray 2,940]

Andrew Neil just tore BoJo a new one on his last leader interview...

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5 hours ago, Kinnock said:

Andrew Neil just tore BoJo a new one on his last leader interview...

You say that, but he hasn’t actually empty-chaired him yet. Much like he did with a Labour MP in 2010, where he replaced him with a Peppa Pig toy.

 

He’s being decidedly lenient with Johnson. But then they were on the same payroll for a long time.

[TQR 14,396]

Yep, Matt Hancock has really got this nailed on. Clever bollocks.

 

[Deathray 2,940]

I despair of this country. To be honest at this point, we deserve what we bloody well get.

 

If the polls are right a significant minority of people think that the person who is untrustworthy and out of touch is the most suitable to be Prime Minister. 

 

The source is a post on twitter of a YouGov poll but twitter seems to be down. 

 

Who do you think came across as more...

Trustworthy: 

Corbyn 48% (+4)
Johnson 38% (-2)

Likeable:

Johnson 55% (+1)
Corbyn 36% (-1)

In Touch:

Corbyn 57% (-2)
Johnson 29% (+4)

Prime Ministerial:

Johnson: 54% (=)
Corbyn 30% (+1)

 

The race to be PM is now literally a popularity contest. It's been this way for many years but I don't remember it ever being this ridiculous.

 

The country, if these polls are right, has decided that whether or not someone is likeable is the main criteria to decide whether to let them run the country. 

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

So, some enjoyable rants for those who're struggling to face the realities:

 

Jonathan Pie says "fuck you Boris" - https://dorseteye.com/jonathan-pie-speaks-more-truth-in-5-minutes-than-laura-kuenssberg-and-robert-peston-have-in-their-whole-careers/?fbclid=IwAR3hBVUUCNlfQQLZvKX3FkSugE6VVxBHQQsXovF-M-oFb8xpsaPLCn8rTTg

 

 

Frankie Boyle get's stuck in, comparing Gove to the scrapings from a serial killer's drains scooped up and stuffed into a pair of brogues - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/07/frankie-boyle-election-countdown-praying-prorogue-next-parliament

 

[gcreptile 10,972]

The Left needs to be more populist sometimes. After all, 50% of people are dumber than the average person.

People don't want lofty explanations, they want to be talked to, in easy words and short sentences.

 

No matter if it's the USA, the UK, or the European continent, the conservatives are currently much better at dumbing things down to the desired level.

 

(I would even say that people DO understand more complicated arguments, they just don't want to be bothered with them.)