U.S Election

[maryportfuncity 10,585]

27 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I don’t see the rally having any effect on voters. Everyone has already long decided who they voting for . 

 

 

More or less, though lately some who feel strong Puerto Rican identity seem to be having second thoughts!

[gcreptile 10,913]

59 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Mine and Nate Silver's tells me that Trump wins relatively comfortably.

I read that and was curiously comforted. Nate Silver's gut is a pretty good indication that the opposite will happen.

If Nate Silver isn't dealing with numbers, he's terribly lost, like when he thought that Gavin Newsom might get recalled, or when he said that NYC mayor Eric Adams might be the future star of the Democratic Party.

 

[Mango 150]

14 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

I read that and was curiously comforted. Nate Silver's gut is a pretty good indication that the opposite will happen.

If Nate Silver isn't dealing with numbers, he's terribly lost, like when he thought that Gavin Newsom might get recalled, or when he said that NYC mayor Eric Adams might be the future star of the Democratic Party.

 

Except it isn't, since his gut feeling in 2020 was that Biden would win, which he did.

 

His model has Trump at a 54% chance to win.

[gcreptile 10,913]

Just now, Mango said:

Except it isn't, since his gut feeling in 2020 was that Biden would win.

 

His model has Trump at a 54% chance to win.

Not a comparable situation. There wasn't a single bit of doubt that Biden would win. 

And the 54% are nothing substantial. Nate himself keeps a race in the toss-up category if the win chance is below 60%.

[prussianblue 988]

On 23/10/2024 at 22:46, prussianblue said:

 

On that, worth quoting Silver/538:

 

'Still, a word of caution: You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast “flipping” to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the “lead” tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.'

 

From the distant past of 6 days ago.

[Mango 150]

20 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Not a comparable situation. There wasn't a single bit of doubt that Biden would win. 

And the 54% are nothing substantial. Nate himself keeps a race in the toss-up category if the win chance is below 60%.

He was the only forecaster who gave Trump more than a 1/4 chance to win in 2016. Clearly, his gut told him that Trump was being underestimated, and he was right.

 

In all likelihood, he'll be right again.

[gcreptile 10,913]

5 minutes ago, Mango said:

He was the only forecaster who gave Trump a more than 1/4 chance to win in 2016. Clearly, his gut told him that Trump was being underestimated, and he was right.

Yes, but that was not his gut, that was his actual model. I know that because I've been following him since 2008. As I said, he's good with the numbers, but terrible with the vibes, or his gut.

 

In fact, his gut was more bullish on Clinton than his model:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-probably-finished-off-trump-last-night/

[Mango 150]

38 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

In fact, his gut was more bullish on Clinton than his model:

Not a comparable situation. He's never been bullish about Trump.

[gcreptile 10,913]

6 hours ago, Mango said:

Not a comparable situation. He's never been bullish about Trump.

WTF?? Didn't we start this conversation because you said that Nate feels bullish about Trump?

 

[Mango 150]

8 hours ago, gcreptile said:

WTF?? Didn't we start this conversation because you said that Nate feels bullish about Trump?

 

No, I pointed out that it was his gut feeling. That's another thing entirely.

 

@Toast If you read what I actually said, I never said he was bullish.

Edited Wednesday at 12:46 by Mango