runebomme 377 Posted December 6, 2018 9 minutes ago, En Passant said: Ah yes, I've seen that of course, but so many of the variables are completely unquantifiable so much so that whilst still being used it's subject to a lot of variation and indeed criticism. It works as a starting point, but I would't use it personally as a counter-argument to the fermi paradox :S ETA: this one in particular fp = 0.2 to 0.5 (one fifth to one half of all stars formed will have planets No exoplanets at all had been confirmed at the time Drake wrote his equation. So that number could only be described as extremely speculative, since 1988 or so that's no longer the case. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the equation is wrong, simply that it's not definitive. "simply that it's not definitive" its not meant to be its an estimation what might give some idea as for fermi paradox there are so many other possibilities and variables that its more of a theory than a paradox and not a good one at that 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 3,741 Posted December 6, 2018 Sure but an estimation is not a calculation. I do not believe that Drake's equation can be used with any degree of certainty to assume that there is only one species of intelligent life per galaxy, it could be none, it could be many more. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
runebomme 377 Posted December 6, 2018 "estimation is not a calculation" you can use calculations to estimate and its probably not very accurate but this and thousands of other reasons make fermi paradox not a paradox as there are so many other options Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 3,741 Posted December 6, 2018 Then we'll have to agree to disagree. I believe the Fermi paradox is just that, a paradox. And to me the most obvious answer is 'there is nobody out there' because if there were, we'd know. You believe differently. But its all speculation since not one contact has proved verifiable, which at least is not off topic for the thread. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
runebomme 377 Posted December 6, 2018 "You believe differently" I don't believe anything, Fermi paradox is bad science, its main purpose is to sound exiting Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 3,741 Posted December 6, 2018 If you say so. I'm done. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
the_engineer 1,415 Posted December 6, 2018 On 06/12/2018 at 13:19, maryportfuncity said: What do our other readers think? I also think the wow signal is the closest thing to evidence we have for alien life. It was probably an alien probe hence the reason they can't find it in the same area. Forget UFOs / greys its no coincidence that UFO sightings for the most part started during WW2 and afterwards continued. German experimental flying tech (disk like objects) and the team behind it leaving to go to the USA after the war to continue research. The battle of los angeles I think they first realised aliens could be used as a scapegoat. USA's war nerves got the better of them and they started firing into the sky at a weather balloon killing 5. UFO / alien hints put out afterwards to muddy the waters, divert blame and keep up morale. The usa probably soon realised the flying saucer tech is not ideal to be manned by humans and got to the point were building robotic pilots was the only viable option.Those UFO's flying around the sky in the middle of the 20th century were probably some of the first drones. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Creep 7,070 Posted December 9, 2018 Driving back home across 30 miles of I-10W swamp (Atchafalya Basin) and there were three bright white lights out at a distance, on the ground, and little excuse for them being there seeing as electricity is unlikely in the area etc. Asked my daughter what she thought it was, of course she determined quickly it was an alien craft, seeing as we saw a wierd purply rainbow colour in the sky above the Mississippi River 15 min earlier it helped explain the whole set of events. SC Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,642 Posted December 10, 2018 One of the more substantial UFO cases - three witnesses, physical effects etc. - The Cash Landrum encounter from late 1980 (actually happened the day after the most widely accepted date for the Rendlesham Forest case) is the subject of the latest Skeptoid podcast. It's one of those - like the 1976 Tehran incident - that leaves the debunkers breaking sweat though Brian Dunning does give it a good mauling in the podcast. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bladan 293 Posted December 11, 2018 On 06/12/2018 at 21:13, En Passant said: 'there is nobody out there' because if there were, we'd know.' What out there? There's no such thing as "out there" because space isn't real. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,964 Posted December 24, 2018 We should have invented singularity travelling now - I blame Nixon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sir Creep 7,070 Posted December 24, 2018 Drones is your third data point. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bladan 293 Posted December 24, 2018 Drones aren't real. No drones, no UFOs, no aliens, nothing. ""We're all hypnotized into thinking that there's something out there... No space, no time, no gravity, no electromagnetism, no particles. Nothing...” – great physicist John Wheeler (who worked with Einstein) in his 2002 interview for the New York Times Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,642 Posted December 24, 2018 56 minutes ago, bladan said: Drones aren't real. No drones, no UFOs, no aliens, nothing. ""We're all hypnotized into thinking that there's something out there... No space, no time, no gravity, no electromagnetism, no particles. Nothing...” – great physicist John Wheeler (who worked with Einstein) in his 2002 interview for the New York Times Yeah, but... It'd be fair to say quite a few of us more skeptical UFOlogists (assuming there's even such a thing) are enjoying the mis-match between what was believed when Gatwick was closed and what is now believed about the amount of drone activity. The whole furore might be a useful insight into the way a little evidence can make a lot of story and - therefore - an insight into the way people report vivid UFO events that others nearby don't even notice. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bladan 293 Posted December 24, 2018 2 hours ago, maryportfuncity said: Yeah, but... It'd be fair to say quite a few of us more skeptical UFOlogists (assuming there's even such a thing) are enjoying the mis-match between what was believed when Gatwick was closed and what is now believed about the amount of drone activity. The whole furore might be a useful insight into the way a little evidence can make a lot of story and - therefore - an insight into the way people report vivid UFO events that others nearby don't even notice. No space, no time, no particles, no Gatwick. UFOs don't exist because nothing exists. This solves the Fermi paradox too. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Davey Jones' Locker 1,324 Posted December 28, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 06:19, charon said: The first commercial airliner, the Farman Goliath, flew in 1919, just over 15 years after the technology was developed. 57 years, 7 months after the first spaceflight as you say, Branson and Musk are still trying to make little baby steps towards commercial spaceliners. Not that I want to go up in one anyway. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bladan 293 Posted March 3, 2019 A few years ago I saw an UFO, probably one of those TR-3B Black Triangles because it had no wings. It was absolutely huge and had one blinking red light. It was flying low and I could hear the sound of nuclear engines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TR-3_Black_Manta Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Paul Bearer 6,101 Posted March 3, 2019 2 hours ago, bladan said: A few years ago I saw an UFO, probably one of those TR-3B Black Triangles because it had no wings. It was absolutely huge and had one blinking red light. It was flying low and I could hear the sound of nuclear engines. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TR-3_Black_Manta It's hardly a UFO if you identified what it was. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
bladan 293 Posted March 3, 2019 16 minutes ago, Paul Bearer said: It's hardly a UFO if you identified what it was. Yes - I should have posted in the Aerospace and Astronomy.thread Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 3,741 Posted March 3, 2019 6 minutes ago, bladan said: Yes - I should have posted in the Aerospace and Astronomy.thread Unless you have 12 megapixel close up photo's please don't. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Davey Jones' Locker 1,324 Posted March 3, 2019 Discussion of some UFO cases in South Australia, including the Knowles family encounter. There is a Youtube video at the bottom of the page featuring an interview with the Knowles clan by DeathList favourite Derryn Hinch. Thoughts, @maryportfuncity ? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-23/curious-adelaide-ufo-sightings-across-australia/9466950 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
maryportfuncity 10,642 Posted March 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Davey Jones' Locker said: Discussion of some UFO cases in South Australia, including the Knowles family encounter. There is a Youtube video at the bottom of the page featuring an interview with the Knowles clan by DeathList favourite Derryn Hinch. Thoughts, @maryportfuncity ? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-23/curious-adelaide-ufo-sightings-across-australia/9466950 One of the strangest UFO cases ever - though there are a few truly strange but non-paranormal explanations doing the rounds including them being unwitting victims of a paramilitary attack: https://steemit.com/ufo/@williambuckley/knowles-family-ufo-mystery-solved A scientific explanation grounded in some observable phenomena suggests potentially the local "min min" light; which would mean a lot of the other things observed were down to some mass hysteria in the car: http://users.adam.com.au/bstett/PaMinMinSolved97.htm 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Davey Jones' Locker 1,324 Posted March 4, 2019 10 hours ago, maryportfuncity said: One of the strangest UFO cases ever - though there are a few truly strange but non-paranormal explanations doing the rounds including them being unwitting victims of a paramilitary attack: https://steemit.com/ufo/@williambuckley/knowles-family-ufo-mystery-solved A scientific explanation grounded in some observable phenomena suggests potentially the local "min min" light; which would mean a lot of the other things observed were down to some mass hysteria in the car: http://users.adam.com.au/bstett/PaMinMinSolved97.htm Cool, thanks! I remember all the media circus around the Knowles case when I was a kid and it really intrigued me at the time. I have always wanted to see the Min Min phenomena - might have to drive out into one of the areas where it is spotted one of these days. BTW, my father observed ball lightning a few times when he was young. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
