Predict The Drop 40

[Death Impends 8,003]

Hmm... at least 14 newcomers this year. I'll assume for a moment that every survivor of 2018's Drop 40 stays on, but a few (Gilbert, Nolan, Vervoort) lose enthusiasm. And Kirk becomes #1 again but Bracknell stays within the top 5.

 

For a guess at 14 newcomers:

1. Bob Dole (on the cusp last year, his appearance at the Bush funeral cements it)
2. Bob Barker (on the cusp last year, all those hospital trips cement it)
3. George Alagiah
4. Bill Turnbull
5. John McCririck (illnesses well known, big UK names)
6. Stirling Moss (fairly popular last year)
7. Terry Jones (on the cusp last year)
8. Jean-Louis Trintignant
9. Johnny Clegg
10. Kathleen Blanco
11. Lee Kerslake (dead certs with on-forum pushes, Clegg and Blanco also benefit from being picked among top teams last year)
12. Tim Conway (hinges on his casual popularity)
13. Ruth Bader Ginsburg (doesn't seem dire, but the timing of her cancer surgery was just right to be fresh in the minds of DDP players)
14. Either a surprise debut from a popular competitive pick (Fairlie?) or a big celebrity no one was specifically expecting to debut (Poitier?)

[Spade_Cooley 9,540]

Only have a provisional Drop 40 at the moment, but... DI seems to be very close to 100% on the money.

[Spade_Cooley 9,540]

Spoiler

1.      Leah Bracknell 

2.      Kirk Douglas 

3.      Prince Philip 

4.      Clive James 

5.      Fernando Ricksen 

6.      Robert Mugabe 

7.      Vera Lynn 

8.      Nobby Stiles 

9.      Olivia de Havilland 

10.   Doris Day 

11.   Olivia Newton-John 

12.   Jimmy Carter 

13.   Valerie Harper 

14.   Linda Nolan 

15.   Kathleen Blanco 

16.   Greg Gilbert 

17.   Bill Turnbull 

18.   George Alagiah 

19.   John McCririck 

20.   Prunella Scales 

21.   Bob Dole 

22.   Marieke Vervoort 

23.   Dick Van Dyke 

24.   Paul Gascoigne 

25.   Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI 

26.   Jill Gascoine 

27.   Tim Conway 

28.   Betty White 

29.   Lee Kersake 

30.   Ruth Bader Ginsburg 

31.   Leslie Phillips 

32.   Johnny Clegg 

33.   Jean-Louis Trintignant 

34.   Henry Kissinger 

35.   Jimmy Greaves 

36.   Queen Elizabeth II 

37.   Bob Barker 

38.  Andrew Fairlie

39.   Stirling Moss 

40.   Terry Jones 

 

Provisional D40, hidden behind spoilers for those who want to wait for the final reveal.

[Death Impends 8,003]

 

If these hold, all 13 exact newcomers predicted right - and Wouk fits for the #14. Only exact detail I got wrong was Trump staying on - but I also forgot the Drop 40 had more than 40 names last time due to tie, so 14 newcomers prediction stays accurate!

 

ETA also wrong on a few trend predictions - IE Bracknell still #1, Nolan/Gilbert/Vervoort haven't tapered off any. But the amount of names predicted is impressive

 

[Spade_Cooley 9,540]

2 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

 

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If these hold, all 13 exact newcomers predicted right - and Wouk fits for the #14. Only exact detail I got wrong was Trump staying on - but I also forgot the Drop 40 had more than 40 names last time due to tie, so 14 newcomers prediction stays accurate!

 

 

 

Spoiler

Actually, rechecking....  Andrew Fairlie will come in at 38 and pushing Wouk down to 41st. So pretty much a complete match.

 

[Joey Russ 7,229]

Hm, if I had to guess a couple of names will fall off the drop 40. I think JLT is probably one of the top bets to fall off (though not guaranteed given all the nick the survivors teams), I think Leslie Phillips might fall off given he wasn’t on the list last year, and Linda Nolan might fall off too given she wasn’t really on any competitive teams last year, unlike 2018. As for new bets, I think a lot of those will be filled up by cancer names. Trebek, P-Orridge, Banali, Doleman, Smith seems to be certs on that end, and it’s also looking likely that Andretti, Gulpilil, and Scruton makes their debut too. As for other names, am thinking Gorbachev and King are good bets on making their debuts. Willie Nelson could debut too. 

[msc 18,480]

Keep in mind I don't have the numbers to hand, but Trebek, Porridge, Banali, Smith, Gulpilil seem likely so far.

[Toast 16,155]

Probably everyone in my team.

[Predictor 1,018]

My prediction:

 

1. George Alagiah

2. David Attenborough (new)

3. Ady Barkan (new)

4. Bob Barker

5. Harry Belafonte (new)

6. Pope Benedict

7. Russell Bishop (new)

8. Gary Burgess (new)

9. Rob Burrow (new)

10. Jimmy Carter

11. Bobby Charlton (new)

12. Billy Connolly

13. Jacques Delors (new)

14. Shannen Doherty

15. Dick Van Dyke

16. Queen Elizabeth

17. Frank Field (new)

18. Paul Gascoigne (new)

19. Mikhail Gorbachev

20. Henry Kissinger

21. Angela Lansbury

22. Jerry Lee Lewis

23. Shane MacGowan (new)

24. Olivia Newton-John

25. Linda Nolan

26. Yoko Ono

27. Tom Parker

28. Pele (new, will be #1)

29. George Perez (new)

30. Leslie Phillips

31. Sidney Poitier (new)

32. Eva Marie Saint (new)

33. Prunella Scales

34. Tom Smith

35. Susie Steiner (new)

36. Jean-Louis Trintignant (new)

37. Bill Turnbull

38. Frankie Valli (new)

39. Doddie Weir

40. James Whale

 

Contenders: Emperor Akihito, Jana Bennett, Tony Bennett, Mel Brooks, Clint Eastwood, Rolf Harris, Glynis Johns, Willie Nelson, Vicky Phelan, Linda Ronstadt, Donald Trump, Gianluca Vialli & Tom Weiskopf

[msc 18,480]

3 minutes ago, Predictor said:

My prediction:

 

1. George Alagiah

2. David Attenborough (new)

3. Ady Barkan (new)

4. Bob Barker

5. Harry Belafonte (new)

6. Pope Benedict

7. Russell Bishop (new)

8. Gary Burgess (new)

9. Rob Burrow (new)

10. Jimmy Carter

11. Bobby Charlton (new)

12. Billy Connolly

13. Jacques Delors (new)

14. Shannen Doherty

15. Dick Van Dyke

16. Queen Elizabeth

17. Frank Field (new)

18. Paul Gascoigne

19. Mikhail Gorbachev

20. Henry Kissinger

21. Angela Lansbury

22. Jerry Lee Lewis

23. Shane MacGowan (new)

24. Olivia Newton-John

25. Linda Nolan

26. Yoko Ono

27. Tom Parker

28. Pele (new, will be #1)

29. George Perez (new)

30. Leslie Phillips

31. Sidney Poitier (new)

32. Eva Marie Saint (new)

33. Prunella Scales

34. Tom Smith

35. Susie Steiner (new)

36. Jean-Louis Trintignant (new)

37. Bill Turnbull

38. Frankie Valli (new)

39. Doddie Weir

40. James Whale

 

Contenders: Emperor Akihito, Jana Bennett, Tony Bennett, Mel Brooks, Clint Eastwood, Rolf Harris, Glynis Johns, Willie Nelson, Vicky Phelan, Linda Ronstadt, Donald Trump, Gianluca Vialli & Tom Weiskopf

 

Hmm, as people don't tend to drop off the Drop 40 alive these days (Gazza was a rare exception) I'll just go for the 16 new names to replace the dead ones from 2021.

 

1. Gary Burgess

2. Frank Field

3. Pele

4. George Perez 

5. Rob Burrow

6. June Brown

7. Jean Louis Trintignant

8. David Attenborough

9. Willie Nelson (despite a drop in forum popularity)

10. Glynis Johns

11. Harry Belafonte

12.  Joanne Woodward

13. Tony Bennett

14. Milos Zeman

15. Francoise Hardy

16. Bobby Charlton

 

Basically a mishmash of people who seem to be on a lot of DDP teams announced here, people who came close last year, and a few highly popular TCD names! 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 16 were all within 10 more picks of last years Drop 40. 

[Predictor 1,018]

41 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Hmm, as people don't tend to drop off the Drop 40 alive these days (Gazza was a rare exception) I'll just go for the 16 new names to replace the dead ones from 2021.

 

1. Gary Burgess

2. Frank Field

3. Pele

4. George Perez 

5. Rob Burrow

6. June Brown

7. Jean Louis Trintignant

8. David Attenborough

9. Willie Nelson (despite a drop in forum popularity)

10. Glynis Johns

11. Harry Belafonte 

12.  Joanne Woodward

13. Tony Bennett

14. Milos Zeman

15. Francoise Hardy

16. Bobby Charlton

 

Basically a mishmash of people who seem to be on a lot of DDP teams announced here, people who came close last year, and a few highly popular TCD names! 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 and 16 were all within 10 more picks of last years Drop 40. 

I dropped two people from the 2021 Drop 40. Bilton felt to me like one of those "previously unknown turned flavour of the year" picks last year. I figured he isn't a household name for casual players, nor has had a serious recent deterioration in health for serious deadpoolers. I could see him getting on lots of teams, but still ousted by enough newcomers. Rolf Harris is a bit harder to motivate, just my gut feeling.

 

I forgot about Woodward, definitely one of the contenders (and Barbara Walters in the same category of 90+ woman with dementia). Hardy is another good guess. I think Zeman is one of the names that mostly lives in this little deathlist community bubble, but has less staying power outside of it. If he was verifiably at death's door, then I'd be more convinced of his inclusion. No Poitier? He has been in the 20-region in the past few years, and I expect at least 30 teams to pick him this time.

[msc 18,480]

2 minutes ago, Predictor said:

I dropped two people from the 2021 Drop 40. Bilton felt to me like one of those "previously unknown turned flavour of the year" picks last year. I figured he isn't a household name for casual players, nor has had a serious deterioration in health for serious deadpoolers. I could see him getting on lots of teams, but still ousted by enough newcomers. Rolf Harris is a bit harder to motivate, just my gut feeling.

 

I forgot about Woodward, definitely one of the contenders (and Barbara Walters in the same category of 90+ woman with dementia). Hardy is another good guess. I think Zeman is one of the names that mostly lives in this little deathlist community bubble, but has less staying power outside of it. If he was verifiably at death's door, then I'd be more convinced of his inclusion. No Poitier? He has been in the 20-region in the past few years, and I expect at least 30 teams to pick him this time.

 

tbh I thought I'd put Poitier down! Oops. 

 

Zeman - there's always someone random off the forum who winds up Drop 40.  Bilton was a shock he even made it that far in the first place, so yes, dropping wouldn't shock, unless folk just see "cancer" and keep him.

 

Still, there's always room for surprises. Last year I was legit surprised Gerd Muller made it over Bobby Charlton, mostly as I had been too busy working on DDP stuff to notice the "Gerd Muller is really sick" news stories around Christmas!

[gcreptile 10,979]

I remember a few very close misses last year. Jean-Louis Trintignant, for example. I think he'll make a comeback. Another one was Norman Lloyd, who has died in the meantime. I do wonder about Clint Eastwood. Very big, very casual name. Basically in competition with some names from the young-ish but very ill category, especially Francoise Hardy and Milos Zeman. Bobby Charlton will be in, of course. Donald Trump probably not. Tony Bennett "should" have been in already, now he definitely will.

I wonder if the Oomph behind Yoko Ono will remain.

[gcreptile 10,979]

Also, damn, last year we got the Top 50 for the Inverse pool by January 10th - that was amazingly fast. We will not surpass or match that.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

I feel like Russell Bishop actually has a decent chance of sneaking on the drop 40 as he’s been on a good chunk of the public teams. Plus he’s a rare hit that nobody wants to miss…

[Death Impends 8,003]

Pele, Field, Burgess, T Bennett, and Charlton are pretty much the "bet money they make the D40" tier. Perez on the cusp of that. Zeman or Hardy, feel they'd need a REALLY strong casualpetitive showing to make it, so I currently err against. And yes, the amount of openings will allow for some more famous old guy picks, Attenborough, Poitier, etc, you know, like how 2020's carnage allowed Jerry Lee Lewis to sneak into the D40 for 2021 (though this year he will be one of the biggest jumps of a name already on it).

[msc 18,480]

15 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I feel like Russell Bishop actually has a decent chance of sneaking on the drop 40 as he’s been on a good chunk of the public teams. Plus he’s a rare hit that nobody wants to miss…

 

Well, in any given year you'll have a fair few "oh thats a shame" celeb deaths, so its always nice to have a "good riddance" DDP hit.

[Sean 6,337]

My prediction

 

1)Jimmy Carter

2)Dick Van Dyke

3)Tom Parker

4)Frank Field

5)Henry Kissenger

6)Pope Benedict

7)George Alagiah

8)Bill Turnbull

9)Prunella Scales

10)Queen Elizabeth II

11)James Whale

12)Doddie Weir

13)Pele 

14)Olivia Newton John

15)Linda Nolan

16)Angela Lansbury

17)Rob Burrow

18)Mikhail Gorbachev

19) Jerry Lee Lewis

20)Leslie Philips 

21)David Attenborough

22)Bob Barker

23)Tony Bennett

24)Billy Connolly

25)Shannen Doherty

26)Bobby Charlton

27)Deborah James

28)Jean Louis Trintingnant

29)June Brown

39)Tom Smith

31)Gary Burgess

32)Rolf Harris

33)Tim Bilton

34)Russell Bishop

35)Yoko Ono

36)Sidney Poitier

37)Ted Kaczinski

38)Robert Durst

39)Milos Zemen

40)Willie Nelson

 

 

 

 

[Sean 6,337]

With George Perez just missing out on a place

[Sean 6,337]

And Steiner and Starmer-Smith also very close to making it on.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

If Deborah James and the Unabomber ends up being drop 40 I’d be stunned

[The Old Crem 3,608]

6 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

If Deborah James and the Unabomber ends up being drop 40 I’d be stunned

I wouldn’t rule out Deborah James. Lots of press coverage here in the UK where at least 50% of the teams are from. 

[Predictor 1,018]

I know this wasn't an actual game but...

 

Since msc and Shaun carried over all 24 survivors from last year, it put me at a 2 points disadvantage. When it comes to newcomers, we all correctly agreed on 5 names: Burgess, Burrow, Charlton, Field & Pele. The only incorrect names we all thought would make it was Attenborough and Poitier (although it's unclear who was msc's 41st choice).

 

After that, the following newcomers were correctly predicted by at least one of us:

 

Bennett: msc & Shaun

Bishop: Predictor & Shaun

Brown: msc & Shaun

Lewis: Predictor & Shaun

MacGowan: Predictor

Perez: msc & Predictor

Steiner: Predictor

Zeman: msc & Shaun

 

Shaun: 34

msc: 33

Predictor: 32

 

Congrats Shaun. My consolation for coming last is that I was the only one to guess MacGowan and Steiner. But then again, the worst prediction, objectively speaking, came from me with Jacques Delors...A basic search of previous DDP years would've told me that he is WAY less popular than I had the impression of.

[Sean 6,337]

My Predictions for this year:

 

1)Jonnie Irwin

2)George Alagiah

3)Jimmy Carter

4)Gianluca Vialli

5)James Whale

6)Rolf Harris

7)Dick Van Dyke

8) Linda Nolan

9)Henry Kissenger

10)Bob Barker

11)Ryuichi Sakamoto

12)Prunella Scales

13)Frank Field

14)Tony Bennett

15)Bobby Charlton

16)Roberta Flack

17)Rob Burrow

18)Billy Connolly

19)Shane MacGowan

20)Tim Bilton

21)David Attenborough

22)Milos Zemen

23)Shannen Doherty

24)Janey Godley

25)Harry Belafonte

26)Mel Brooks

27)Yoko Ono

28)Simon Cowell (Wildlife SOS)

29)Phil Collins

30)Randy Jackson (American Idol)

31)Nigel Starmer Smith

32)Clint Eastwood

33)Ruth Buzzi

34)Pervez Musharraf

35)Charlie Bird

36)Joanne Woodward

37)Steve McMichael

38)Eva Marie Saint

39)Francoise Hardy

40)Willie Nelson

 

 

[Joey Russ 7,229]

Not to try to argue about the drop 40 predictions but if Charlie Bird lands anywhere close to the drop 40 I will be absolutely stunned