That Portillo Moment

[Deathray 2,940]

1 minute ago, RoverAndOut said:

Farron's majority down to 777 - fingertips!

 

He's got the Greens to thank for not losing that.

[YoungWillz 21,033]

Ok the results are in.

 

Unsurprisingly, Simon Danczuk came a distant last as an independent, so msc wins for this prediction.

 

Wooden spoon goes to Deathray for picking Diane Abbott who romped home with a majority in excess of 35,000.

 

Salmond, Clegg and Robertson gone.

 

But possibly the Portillo moments of note came from those who just scraped home. Stephen Crabb and Amber Rudd looked tired and emotional, and Anna Soubry essentially in tears decried her party and her leader.

 

See you all for the next one...coming soon?

[YoungWillz 21,033]

Well, looks like we'll have to get our thinking caps on again.

 

As you know, this thread attempts to give players the opportunity to predict which candidate in the forthcoming General Election will lose by the largest margin. Obviously, a few of our favourites are standing down, but I'd guess Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes must be down there....maybe?

 

Anyhow, remains to be seen who announces they are not standing. We could start throwing names around, maybe when we know better.

 

Bumped anyway.

[Deathray 2,940]

1 hour ago, YoungWillz said:

Well, looks like we'll have to get our thinking caps on again.

 

As you know, this thread attempts to give players the opportunity to predict which candidate in the forthcoming General Election will lose by the largest margin. Obviously, a few of our favourites are standing down, but I'd guess Anna Soubry and Mike Gapes must be down there....maybe?

  

Anyhow, remains to be seen who announces they are not standing. We could start throwing names around, maybe when we know better.

 

Bumped anyway.

 

I'd wait until roughly 20:00 tonight before opening the game.

The government will be withdrawing the election bill if the opposition amendments to extend the franchise pass. This isn't nailed on yet.

 

Three way splits between IND v BRX v CON are of interest though, could see a few LIB DEM and LAB seats picked up in bizarre places on these terms. 

[TQR 14,386]

Ali Milani, off of Labour, is challenging Johnson's seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and he appears to be growing in popularity in a seat where the Conservative majority of 10% could quite easily be swung.

 

All this to say, hopefully, Michael Portillo will no longer be the prime namesake of this phenomenon after December.

[Deathray 2,940]

1 hour ago, The Quim Reaper said:

Ali Milani, off of Labour, is challenging Johnson's seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and he appears to be growing in popularity in a seat where the Conservative majority of 10% could quite easily be swung.

  

All this to say, hopefully, Michael Portillo will no longer be the prime namesake of this phenomenon after December.

 

Rumours abound that Boris will not be standing for re-election in Uxbridge and will be parachuted in to a safe seat. 

[msc 18,438]

Well...

On 20/04/2017 at 14:57, msc said:

Well, given I was wrong about Brexit on here, wrong about the last election, and if I could be bothered to go look, probably wrong about the Indy Ref too. In that case...

 

 

I can't see beyond a Tory landslide. Theresa May is 100% going to be PM after June.

 

 

There.

 

as that was wrong too (the landslide bit, obvious I didn't foresee Zombie May)...

 

I can't see beyond a Tory landslide. Boris Johnson is 100% going to win a huge majority in any upcoming election...

[Deathray 2,940]

All but confirmed now for the 12th December now. 

 

3rd election in 5 years. Jesus. 

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

1 hour ago, msc said:

Well...

 

as that was wrong too (the landslide bit, obvious I didn't foresee Zombie May)...

 

I can't see beyond a Tory landslide. Boris Johnson is 100% going to win a huge majority in any upcoming election...

 

 

I can see beyond that, fluid, unpredictable and likely to throw surprises up to and including some results as they're declared. Don't rule out rock solid Labour heartlands which voted remain suddenly turning blue, a near lock-out of SNP victories north of the border or Brexit Party inroads and tactical voting taking out apparently safe Tories like Iain Duncan Smith (he currently has 5.2% more of the votes than Labour in Chingford and Woodford Green).

[YoungWillz 21,033]

I don't care what any politician says, I bloody LOVE voting.

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

Oh aye and...12th December it is, then

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news

 

Fixed Term Parliament Act now obliges us to freeze our collective arses off every five years. I reckon people will vote - environmentally wrecking - Tories in just to ensure global warming makes the elections bearable, or summat

[Deathray 2,940]

12 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

I can see beyond that, fluid, unpredictable and likely to throw surprises up to and including some results as they're declared. Don't rule out rock solid Labour heartlands which voted remain suddenly turning blue, a near lock-out of SNP victories north of the border or Brexit Party inroads and tactical voting taking out apparently safe Tories like Iain Duncan Smith (he currently has 5.2% more of the votes than Labour in Chingford and Woodford Green).

 

Hung Parliament seems like a good shout to be honest. Although the current polls will likely become a bit useless as the election campaign gets under way, a lot of people move to voting for the best bet in their own constituency as the election approaches.

 

Could see SNP piling on a few votes.

Could see the Lib Dems grabbing a good deal of inner London seats from both the Conservatives and Labour.

Actually reckon a handful of BXP could be elected. 

Northern Ireland could become a mess as the no-standing pact has fell between certain parties.

 

 

Most interested in turnout to be frank. It's been steadily increasing since the nadir of 2001 and I'm concerned a winter election could seriously dent the progress we've made on that front. Would feel like a victory for democracy if this election got above the 70% mark. (72.21% for the EU Referendum). But with winter combined with election fatigue we could see turnout climb down a bit again.

 

2017 - 68.8%

2015 - 66.4%

2010 - 65.1%

2005 - 61.4%

2001 - 59.4%

1997 - 71.3%

1992 - 77.7%

1987 - 75.3%

1983 - 72.7%

1979 - 76.0%

1974 - 72.8% (Oct)

1974 - 78.8% (Feb)

 

8 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

Oh aye and...12th December it is, then

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news

 

Fixed Term Parliament Act now obliges us to freeze our collective arses off every five years. I reckon people will vote - environmentally wrecking - Tories in just to ensure global warming makes the elections bearable, or summat

 

In theory yes, but it's worth remembering that Boris was unable to use FTPA to call an election and should anyone achieve a majority one of their first acts will be repealing the FTPA Act on the basis 2015-2019 showed it failed in it's sole purpose.  The Fixed Term Parliaments Act was a good idea for a single parliament. It will be torn out as soon as we have a majority government; or rather if we have a majority government again given the SNP problem.

 

Of course a sensible voting system that correlated  the number of votes a party got with it's representation in the parliament would solve much of this by forcing co-operation.

 

Either way I'll be standing ready for the exit poll, hopefully with Dimbleby out of retirement for it.

Edited October 29, 2019 by Kinnock

[the_engineer 1,415]

 

Cue the obligatory not another one vid. 

[Deathray 2,940]

1 minute ago, the_engineer said:

 

Cue the obligatory not another one vid. 

 

 

 

[msc 18,438]

Where's Nigel standing?

 

The UUP/DUP pact collapsing in N Ireland could make some of their seats more interesting than usual.

 

Jokes aside, even if I think a Tory majority is likely, it looks like the Tories are going in writing off 20 odd seats as a loss at the start (Scotland, London, the South West) on a good night before they start making gains off Labour, and that sounds awfully like an Ed Miliband Strategy.

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

7 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

Hung Parliament seems like a good shout to be honest. Although the current polls will likely become a bit useless as the election campaign gets under way, a lot of people move to voting for the best bet in their own constituency as the election approaches.

 

Could see SNP piling on a few votes.

Could see the Lib Dems grabbing a good deal of inner London seats from both the Conservatives and Labour.

Actually reckon a handful of BXP could be elected. 

Northern Ireland could become a mess as the no-standing pact has fell between certain parties.

 

 

Most interested in turnout to be frank. It's been steadily increasing since the nadir of 2001 and I'm concerned a winter election could seriously dent the progress we've made on that front. Would feel like a victory for democracy if this election got above the 70% mark. (72.21% for the EU Referendum). But with winter combined with election fatigue we could see turnout climb down a bit again.

 

2017 - 68.8%

2015 - 66.4%

2010 - 65.1%

2005 - 61.4%

2001 - 59.4%

1997 - 71.3%

1992 - 77.7%

1987 - 75.3%

1983 - 72.7%

1979 - 76.0%

1974 - 72.8% (Oct)

1974 - 78.8% (Feb)

 

 

In theory yes, but it's worth remembering that Boris was unable to use FTPA to call an election and should anyone achieve a majority one of their first acts will be repealing the FTPA Act on the basis 2015-2019 showed it failed in it's sole purpose.  The Fixed Term Parliaments Act was a good idea for a single parliament. It will be torn out as soon as we have a majority government; or rather if we have a majority government again given the SNP problem.

 

Of course a sensible voting system that correlated  the number of votes a party got with it's representation in the parliament would solve much of this by forcing co-operation.

 

 

Aye, that sensible voting system...but which sensible voting system?

 

I was debating this of late and stuck in the opinion that in this electronic age it wouldn't be such a stupid notion to adopt the massive constituencies of the Euro elections and then elect a set number of MPs in each one meaning everyone's vote counts.

 

If the next hung parliament threw up a dog's breakfast of Tories biggest party, nobody in any other party trusting Boris and saying so on Friday 13th after which SNP/Lib Dem and what's left of Labour just about manage the numbers to declare a government of national unity that nobody wanted...and the first acts are a people's vote, Scottish Referendum and a bill that guarantees first past the post is history...man, we'd dream of the easy days of November 2019 then.

 

[Deathray 2,940]

Just now, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Aye, that sensible voting system...but which sensible voting system

 

 I was debating this of late and stuck in the opinion that in this electronic age it wouldn't be such a stupid notion to adopt the massive constituencies of the Euro elections and then elect a set number of MPs in each one meaning everyone's vote counts.

  

If the next hung parliament threw up a dog's breakfast of Tories biggest party, nobody in any other party trusting Boris and saying so on Friday 13th after which SNP/Lib Dem and what's left of Labour just about manage the numbers to declare a government of national unity that nobody wanted...and the first acts are a people's vote, Scottish Referendum and a bill that guarantees first past the post is history...man, we'd dream of the easy days of November 2019 then.

  

 

STV seems to work fine in Scotland. Although I'd take anything that more closely correlated with actual fucking vote share.....

 

It'd be hard to see them manage to declare a GNU given the Lib Dems and SNP have both ruled out working with Corbyn. If it delivered another hung parliament I've got a feeling we'd be more likely to return to the polls within 6 months than have another referendum.

 

But like many in here, sadly resigned to an overwhelming Tory landslide in the 130-180 seat range. Although will probably find the time to do some more boring analysis nearer the time for everyone to ignore.  

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

Just now, Kinnock said:

 

STV seems to work fine in Scotland. Although I'd take anything that more closely correlated with actual fucking vote share.....

 

It'd be hard to see them manage to declare a GNU given the Lib Dems and SNP have both ruled out working with Corbyn. If it delivered another hung parliament I've got a feeling we'd be more likely to return to the polls within 6 months than have another referendum.

 

But like many in here, sadly resigned to an overwhelming Tory landslide in the 130-180 seat range. Although will probably find the time to do some more boring analysis nearer the time for everyone to ignore.  

 

 

This time I'm not resigned to anything and I think one factor that throws a curve ball is that we could see "take out" tactical voting on an unprecedented scale. Boris Johnson (50.8% of the vote in Uxbridge) is likely safe, Corbyn (73%) surely is unbeatable but the likes of IDS aren't as safe as they were so we'll likely have a Portillo moment...and some ex-politico heading for a television career, or summat.

[the_engineer 1,415]

In all seriousness though I can't see anything other than a conservative majority but not a super majority. I think the lib dems will take enough votes off labour to cost them seats and give them to the conservatives. 

 

Maybe a few of our Scottish posters might have a better insight but I can't call what will happen there.  Will it go even more conservative and the Tories will add seats or swing back to labour wiping out SNP and conservative seats or go completely SNP and wipe out the last labour and conservative seats. Scotland doesn't do half measures when voting or drinking.  Election 2015 and pop idol 2003 come to mind.McManus certainly wasn't a half measure. 

[the_engineer 1,415]

15 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

 

 

 

Chronicles of nairnana

[Deathray 2,940]

3 minutes ago, the_engineer said:

In all seriousness though I can't see anything other than a conservative majority but not a super majority. I think the lib dems will take enough votes off labour to cost them seats and give them to the conservatives. 

 

Maybe a few of our Scottish posters might have a better insight but I can't call what will happen there.  Will it go even more conservative and the Tories will add seats or swing back to labour wiping out SNP and conservative seats or go completely SNP and wipe out the last labour and conservative seats. Scotland doesn't do half measures when voting or drinking.  Election 2015 and pop idol 2003 come to mind.McManus certainly wasn't a half measure. 

 

Scots are very good at tactical voting, and the Tories aren't all that respected up above the border, so I reckon the Tories will be outed by whoever is best placed to depose them whether that be Lib Dem/SNP or Labour. 

 

One thing I'm interested in south of the border is these Indie contested Tory seats, where if the Brexit Party stand you could see a 4 or 5 way split and MP elected on 18-25% of the vote.

[the_engineer 1,415]

7 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

Scots are very good at tactical voting, and the Tories aren't all that respected up above the border, so I reckon the Tories will be outed by whoever is best placed to depose them whether that be Lib Dem/SNP or Labour. 

 

One thing I'm interested in south of the border is these Indie contested Tory seats, where if the Brexit Party stand you could see a 4 or 5 way split and MP elected on 18-25% of the vote.

 

I have a feeling an election pact might be underway as we speak between Brexit party and conservatives.  Maybe conservatives giving up a few seats to them allowing Nigel to be elected etc and Brexit party not standing in some swing seats. Conservatives would probably prefer a coalition with Brexit party over the DUP. 

[msc 18,438]

Outside the Borders which love them some Davey Mundell, I think the Nats will wipe out most of the Tory seats. They won big in 2017 at the high point of their defenders of the union/hug a Ruth campaign, and now they are Ruthless.

 

 

[Deathray 2,940]

John Curtis going with a bold prediction 100+ MPs not belonging to either Conservative or Labour Parties.

 

 

Historically that would be the most for many many years on results night (although due to the mass moving there's now 106 in the current parliament). You need to go back to 1923 and the last large liberal majority for more than 100 seats not to belong to LabCon.

 

2017 - 71 Non LabCon MPs (of 650)

2015 - 88 Non LabCon MPs (of 650)

2010 - 86 Non LabCon MPs (of 650)

2005 - 93 Non LabCon MPs (of 646)

2001 - 80 Non LabCon MPs (of 659)

1997 - 76 Non LabCon MPs (of 659)

1992 - 44 Non LabCon MPs (of 651)

1987 - 45 Non LabCon MPs (of 650)

1983 - 44 Non LabCon MPs (of 650)

1979 - 27 Non LabCon MPs (of 635)

1974 (Oct) - 39 Non LabCon MPs (of 635)

1974 (Feb) - 37 Non LabCon MPs (of 635)

1970 - 12 Non LabCon MPs (of 630)

1966 - 13 Non LabCon MPs (of 630)

1964 - 9 Non LabCon MPs (of 630)

1959 - 7 Non LabCon MPs (of 630)

1955 - 8 Non LabCon MPs (of 630)

1951 - 9 Non LabCon MPs (of 625)

1950 - 12 Non LabCon MPs (of 625)

1945 - 50 Non LabCon MPs (of 640)

1935 - 74 Non LabCon MPs (of 615)

1931 - 94 Non LabCon MPs (of 615)

1929 - 67 Non LabCon MPs (of 615)

1924 - 53 Non LabCon MPs (of 615)

1923 - 166 Non LabCon MPs (of 615)

 

*Note I'm loosely defining LabCon here as MPs that took one of the LabCon whips so Nat Liberal (1950 onwards) is Con and Labour Co-Op = Labour. During the national government period of the interwar years this is disapplied as it makes far less sense given complexion of the parliaments. It's long and boring.

[YoungWillz 21,033]

While I think the Tories will hold a couple of seats, I think a lot of voters will feel bloody awful that they actually gave the election to Tezza last time.

 

I do think Scots vote on what is put before them, and Brexit will not be the only show in town up here. Bawjaws himself is absolutely toxic, and there's also an innate dislike of upper-class nonces thinking they know what is best for Scotland. Labour died in Scotland precisely because of what you are seeing down South now, however, deep down left leaning Scots tend to like the idea of regionalism, nationalisation, investment. But they also like thrift.

 

The SNP will do well again, however, if they look like a one issue party of independence, it will also look like they are disregarding their vision on issues - they are struggling on health, education standards and local government - but then isn't everybody?

 

I actually think the LibDems might recover in their heartlands a bit, but Jo Swinson looks precarious. The oppo parties should go hard on her admiration for Thatcher and Tezza, the breaking of bread in the Coalition and the fact she doesn't actually have any Scottish oriented promises - then tata Jo.

 

Brexit Party? Nope, though they will hurt Tories in the seats they want to hold.

 

Greens? I'll tell you what,it wouldn't surprise me if they picked up one or two. Climate change is the big issue in the University towns up here.