That Portillo Moment

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Don't you, forget about this thread, don't, don't, don't, don't...…….

 

If things are becoming clearer at this point, stick a name down.

 

I can't guarantee I'll be about on the night to do my usual running updates, but as soon as I can, we can see whose face and fate has fallen the furthest.

 

 

[msc 18,476]

IDS, hopefully.

 

(If you still mean "biggest defeat for an MP, it'll be Chris Williamson.)

[TQR 14,398]

Raab’s looking dodgy. Lib Dems are within a couple of points of him in his constituency of Esher and Walton.

 

I’d honestly cry with unbridled joy if we never had to see or hear that cunt again.

[TQR 14,398]

This, too, is happening in Wokingham.

 

 

Wokingham, of course, being the constituency of John Redwood, off of cunts.

[Deathray 2,940]

1 hour ago, The Quim Reaper said:

This, too, is happening in Wokingham.

 

 

Wokingham, of course, being the constituency of John Redwood, off of cunts.

 

That's a month old, Lib Dem nat vote share has fallen in that time.

[En Passant 3,741]

18 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

That's a month old, Lib Dem nat vote share has fallen in that time.

You keep tabs this close on a constituency 300 or so miles south of you? Do you do this for all of them? or even just the marginal ones?

I'm impressed by your political engagement now if I wasn't before, which to be honest, I was.

[TQR 14,398]

28 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

Lib Dem nat vote share has fallen in that time.

 

Source?

[Deathray 2,940]

41 minutes ago, En Passant said:

You keep tabs this close on a constituency 300 or so miles south of you? Do you do this for all of them? or even just the marginal ones?

I'm impressed by your political engagement now if I wasn't before, which to be honest, I was.

 

I was referring to the national vote share.

 

However I do  keep track of political constituency polls in the run up to an election through poll aggregators. Primarily these two

 

@BritainElects and @ElectionMapsUK

(twitter)

 

Britain elects had a website which has bow been consumed by the New Statesmen.

There's also Electoral Calculus website.

And the Guardian poll tracker as well as the wiki collation which includes constituency polls....

 

Naturally these polling companies but more focus on the marginal constituencies (I haven't seen a non MRP constituency poll for my 42.9% labour majority constuituency for instance). This stuff is all fairly easy to keep track of....

 

I'll also update spreadsheets with  national westminster voting election polling information ran through electoral calculus seat predictor. (If anyone is interested it primaily predicts a Conservative majority (albeit a lower one now than at start of campaign), but if you start putting in polled Scottish intentions you get much more frequent hung parliaments...

 

I should probably think about downloading some online dating apps, but as you can probably tell from the above I'm not an easy sell on that front  ....

 

Whilst YW might not be around to provide pithy updates throughout election night itself I definitely will...  

 

35 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

 

Source?

 

You just need to look at the rolling averages from Britain Elects for national vote share.

 

4 November they were on 16.4%

2 December they are on 13.3%

 

That's -3.1% which would obviously keep Redwood in his seat if repeated locally. Given Redwood was still ahead in the first place Tories would need to fall for the Lib Dems to have a shot in that seat and they've gone from 37.5 to to 42.6 (+5.1) on rolling averages.  Meanwhile Lab have gone from 25.7 to 32.3 (+6.6)

 

Whilst of course some more of that Lab vote might fall behind the Lib Dems in that constituency it would require a bloody large tactical vote on national swings from the above figures.

 

Con 42

LD 38

LAB 12

 

Would be

Con 47.1%

LD 34.9%

LAB 18.6%

 

Obviously that adds up to above 100%, but it shows the trend from your initial poll. Accounting for the fact that takes you over 100%

 

YouGov's MRP (which got 2017s election closest however there's a tonne of caveats on that); (taken last week much more recent than 4 November posted above) has this at:

 

Con 46

Lib Dem 36

Lab 12

 

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

 

I.e unless there's an extremely localised tactical voting shift amoung that remaining 12% of Labour voters (and the 3% of Greens),  John Redwood should  comfortably hold his seat...

 

Anyhoo I've got a new parka to go and buy...

[msc 18,476]

Although since Deathray has brought out the psephology geekdom, I'd just like to add that I think the Lib Dem vote share is becoming heavily regionalised ie that they'll hold up far better in target seats than in no hope seats. They've gone down 4-5 points this month in London, but they are still polling well above 2017 levels so if thats fixed on their targets they could gain Zac Goldsmith's Richmond Park or nearby Wimbledon, but lose their deposit in somewhere like Chingford or Walthamstow. Universal Swing is increasingly becoming less of a thing as tactical voting and local issues become as vital.

[Deathray 2,940]

21 minutes ago, msc said:

Although since Deathray has brought out the psephology geekdom, I'd just like to add that I think the Lib Dem vote share is becoming heavily regionalised ie that they'll hold up far better in target seats than in no hope seats. They've gone down 4-5 points this month in London, but they are still polling well above 2017 levels so if thats fixed on their targets they could gain Zac Goldsmith's Richmond Park or nearby Wimbledon, but lose their deposit in somewhere like Chingford or Walthamstow. Universal Swing is increasingly becoming less of a thing as tactical voting and local issues become as vital.

 

Absolutely, universal swing is become less of a thing as tactical voting becomes more of a thing, but even accounting for that the chances of John Redwood losing his seat are minimal. As far as the ground campaign goes, in my neck of the woods I haven't seen local issues being brought up much, the Brexit parties are dragging the Brexit drum, the Remain parties are dragging the remain drum and Labour are trying to float between the two camps.

 

There's also the question of reminding yourself that while BXP are polling between 2-4% nationally this equates to 4-8% in the seats they are standing in, which could be definitive in many Lab held seats depending on where it comes from.  

[TQR 14,398]

Actual photo from Midsomer Norton in Somerset, constituency of Jacob Rees-Cunt.

 

 

We can but hope.

[Deathray 2,940]

Seen as this thread appears to have become the psephology geekery thread:

 

There's a number of constituency that have consistently backed the winner (most seats) at previous elections going back to at least 1997. Essentially if Boris starts losing these (especially if Watford goes red) - (all Tory held, naturally) he might want start panicking like mad on December 12th.

 

They are:

 

1955

Watford

(on 2nd check this went Lab in 1970.)

 

1964

Dartford

 

Feb 1974

Loughborough

Northampton North

Portsmouth North

 

1979

Burton

Dover

Gloucester

Harrow East

Morecambe and Lunesdale

Pudsey

Worcester

 

1983 

Amber Valley

Calder Valley

Crawley

Derbyshire South

Erewash

Great Yarmouth

Harlow

Hastings and Rye

Leicestershire North West

Norwich North

Reading West

Ribble South

Rossendale and Darwen

Sherwood

Staffordshire Moorlands

Stevenage

Thanet South

Vale of Glamorgan

 

1997

Brigg and Goole

Cannock Chase

Carlisle

Camarthen West and Pembrokeshire South

Chatham and Aylesford

Cleethorpes

Dudley South

Finchley and Golders Green

Halesowen and Rowley Regis

Hendon

Kingswood

Nuneaton

Pendle

Redditch

Sittingbourne and Sheppey

Staffod Constituency

Stourbridge

Swindon North

Swindon South

Tamworth

Thurrock

Warwickshire North

 

 

[Spade_Cooley 9,528]

Northampton North has also had the same two candidates representing the main two parties at the 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019 elections (Michael Ellis (CON) and Sally Keeble (LAB)).  Is that any sort of record?

[msc 18,476]

11 minutes ago, Spade_Cooley said:

Northampton North has also had the same two candidates representing the main two parties at the 2010, 2015, 2017 and 2019 elections (Michael Ellis (CON) and Sally Keeble (LAB)).  Is that any sort of record?

 

No, Stroud has more: David Drew and Neil Carmichael took on each other at 5 elections straight, 2001 to 2017. Drew won 3-2.

 

 

[Redrumours 861]

27 minutes ago, msc said:

 

No, Stroud has more: David Drew and Neil Carmichael took on each other at 5 elections straight, 2001 to 2017. Drew won 3-2.

 

 

First time a draw has won then.

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

Unlikely Portillo moment but Count Binface is one of two recepticle candidates facing Bojo in Uxbridge and South Ruislip and he's said he looks forward to a recepticle to recepticle debate with Monster Raving Loony candidate Buckethead

 

Should be a memorable moment when they're both in shot as the result is called

 

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

Oh aye and the eminently beatable IDS got a dead rat in the post

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/iain-duncan-smith-dead-rat-post-conservatives-chingford-woodford-a9236926.html?fbclid=IwAR3mVkkfrnFl71bx_KtemcKijHaj-UXqbijsf3hotea8kVGx2R26kIPmusE

[Deathray 2,940]

48 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

Oh aye and the eminently beatable IDS got a dead rat in the post

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/iain-duncan-smith-dead-rat-post-conservatives-chingford-woodford-a9236926.html?fbclid=IwAR3mVkkfrnFl71bx_KtemcKijHaj-UXqbijsf3hotea8kVGx2R26kIPmusE

 

Also posting his address on twitter for anyone else to send stuff too....

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

2 hours ago, Kinnock said:

 

Also posting his address on twitter for anyone else to send stuff too....

 

 

IDS is an interesting case his Wikipedia page has changed a lot over the years and the discussion of his education now honestly records the false claims he originally posted and explains the true story. Oddly his poor school record, sidestep into the forces and eventual ladder climbing to lead a party would probably be seen as a positive if he'd been a Labour MP

[Toast 16,140]

3 hours ago, maryportfuncity said:

Oh aye and the eminently beatable IDS got a dead rat in the post

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/iain-duncan-smith-dead-rat-post-conservatives-chingford-woodford-a9236926.html?fbclid=IwAR3mVkkfrnFl71bx_KtemcKijHaj-UXqbijsf3hotea8kVGx2R26kIPmusE

 

Here is a lengthy poem about IDS which uses only one vowel throughout.

Well worth a listen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiTgRN4rZRk

 

Saw the excellent Luke Wright when he was opening for Dr John Cooper Clarke.

 

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

The incident yesterday with Boris Johnson, the mobile phone and the 4 year old Yorkshire lad could be as significant as the moment in 2010 when Gordon Brown was overheard on mic describing a bigoted old lady as bigoted. Did that cost him the election?

[TQR 14,398]

2 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

The incident yesterday with Boris Johnson, the mobile phone and the 4 year old Yorkshire lad could be as significant as the moment in 2010 when Gordon Brown was overheard on mic describing a bigoted old lady as bigoted. Did that cost him the election?

Yes please.

[Deathray 2,940]

5 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

The incident yesterday with Boris Johnson, the mobile phone and the 4 year old Yorkshire lad could be as significant as the moment in 2010 when Gordon Brown was overheard on mic describing a bigoted old lady as bigoted. Did that cost him the election?

 

It's too late in the campaign. And Brown probably would have still lost without that incident. 

 

Not to mention things like that are used to build a narrative and the majority of people aren't building an anti-Johnson narrative.

[Toast 16,140]

6 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

The incident yesterday with Boris Johnson, the mobile phone and the 4 year old Yorkshire lad could be as significant as the moment in 2010 when Gordon Brown was overheard on mic describing a bigoted old lady as bigoted. Did that cost him the election?

 

Let's hope so.

[Deathray 2,940]

31 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Let's hope so.

 

I'm confused. I always had you down as a Tory for some reason....