That Portillo Moment

[Toast 16,140]

1 hour ago, Kinnock said:

I'm confused. I always had you down as a Tory for some reason....

 

I'm not really anything.  There doesn't seem to be anybody in contention who's capable of running the country, but I'm keen to see the back of the shower of shits who are currently in charge.

[Spade_Cooley 9,528]

The final YouGov MRP poll does have Bolsover going Tory, for those who predicted Dennis Skinner would be on the way out. Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers also loses her seat, as does Caroline Flint with Don Valley turning non-Labour for the first time since 1922.

[Deathray 2,940]

10 minutes ago, Spade_Cooley said:

The final YouGov MRP poll does have Bolsover going Tory, for those who predicted Dennis Skinner would be on the way out. Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers also loses her seat, as does Caroline Flint with Don Valley turning non-Labour for the first time since 1922.

 

It's very close on Bolsover and Chipping Barnet though

Bolsover Con +33 (41) -50  Lab +31 (39) -46

Chipping Barnet Lab +37 (45) -52 Con +34 (41) -48

 

Less so

Don Valley Con +36 (44) -52 Lab 29 (36) -44

 

Also 

Chinford and Woodford Green Con +40 (47) -55 Lab +37 (45) -53 (Tory hold)

Uxbridge and South Ruislip Con +41 (49) -57 Lab +32 (40) -48 (Tory hold)

Esher and Walton Con +37 (46) -54 Lib Dem +36 (44) (-53) (Tossup)

 

 

That's IDS, Boris and Dominic Raab for those who can't automatically link constituencies to MPs in their head.....

 

Overall the picture is a more positive one (personally) with the Tory majority cut to 28 seats from 68 in the original MRP.

[Spade_Cooley 9,528]

Looks like my Pidcock punt will be borne out.

[Sean 6,327]

Swinson loses seat.

[TQR 14,397]

Only by 100 or so votes. I’m surprised there wasn’t a bigger gulf. Useless waft of pissy air.

[Philip 121]

Dennis skinner the beast of Bolsover has lost his seat

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Broadband and phone working! Huzzah!

 

I'll do a list over the weekend as I'm off out for a drink, then moving more stuff tomorrow. Should be properly ensconced soon, then I can unpack for Christmas!

 

Bear with, bear with.... 

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

11 hours ago, Philip said:

Dennis skinner the beast of Bolsover has lost his seat

 

 

And the 80 something unemployed northerner now has to rely on the welfare provided by a Tory government - reality television beckons, if he wants to eat properly

[Deathray 2,940]

6 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

And the 80 something unemployed northerner now has to rely on the welfare provided by a Tory government - reality television beckons, if he wants to eat properly

 

I mean at just shy of 50 years in parliament his savings are probably over the 6k threshold for universal credit.

I'd assume his pension is also pretty healthy.

 

Given he missed much of the campaign due to being ill he should worry about the health service more.

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

4 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

I mean at just shy of 50 years in parliament his savings are probably over the 6k threshold for universal credit.

I'd assume his pension is also pretty healthy.

 

Given he missed much of the campaign due to being ill he should worry about the health service more.

 

 

Indeed but I was being ironic to make a point. Ironically (in another direction) the only reason he wasn't father of the house for years was that Ken Clarke got in there less than an hour earlier in 1970 because Skinner had some fairly trivial social appointment (like meeting someone for coffee).

[Deathray 2,940]

1 minute ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Indeed but I was being ironic to make a point. Ironically (in another direction) the only reason he wasn't father of the house for years was that Ken Clarke got in there less than an hour earlier in 1970 because Skinner had some fairly trivial social appointment (like meeting someone for coffee).

 

To be fair Skinner said he'd refuse the title if he achieved it anyway. 

 

Also looking at the seats the Tories won, they'll need to address many of the wrongs of the past 9 years or they won't win them again.

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

1 minute ago, Kinnock said:

 

To be fair Skinner said he'd refuse the title if he achieved it anyway. 

 

Also looking at the seats the Tories won, they'll need to address many of the wrongs of the past 9 years or they won't win them again.

 

Aye, and learning to speak proper Cumbrian dialect would go a long way in Workington

[Deathray 2,940]

1 minute ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

Aye, and learning to speak proper Cumbrian dialect would go a long way in Workington

 

They could just change the boundaries.

 

Oh wait that's exactly what they're doing - along with abolishing pesky things like parliamentary scrutiny, judicial oversight and the fixed terms parliaments act.

 

Early watch their vote share and Labour's rise in 2024 only to give the Tories more seats. 

[En Passant 3,741]

35 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

Aye, and learning to speak proper Cumbrian dialect would go a long way in Workington

 

34 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

They could just change the boundaries. 

To what? North Kent?

[Deathray 2,940]

3 minutes ago, En Passant said:

 

To what? North Kent?

 

Ooh this is a nice rural Tory voting council ward in the suburb, bang it in the currently Labour voting but marginal town constituency.......

 

It's what every PM with a majority has done since time immemorial. It's one of the main reasons for knocking fucked past the post on the head.

[En Passant 3,741]

7 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

It's one of the main reasons for knocking fucked past the post on the head.

I might well agree with you and I'm old enough to remember that Tesco bitch Shirley Porter.

 

Trouble is (simplistically, as I see it, which let's be fair is everything) it takes power to change the law to PR and you just used the current system to gain that power. Topically for the time of year, a bit like Turkeys voting for xmas.

[Deathray 2,940]

6 minutes ago, En Passant said:

I might well agree with you and I'm old enough to remember that Tesco bitch Shirley Porter.

 

Trouble is (simplistically, as I see it, which let's be fair is everything) it takes the power to change the law to PR and you just used the current system to gain that power. Topically for the time of year, a bit like Turkeys voting for xmas.

 

Which is why you need a progressive alliance for the next election. 

 

If you're clearly an amalgamation of a variety of different parties then it would wear better, get in, change the voting system, hold a new election.

 

You could even get the support of right wingers like Farage and UKIPpers - there's an opportunity to make Voting Reform the next Brexit here.

 

Everyone who isn't Labour or the Tories wants it.

 

Edit: Just read up on Shirley Porter - jesus christ.

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Boris Johnson (Uxbridge and Ruislip South) Hold Majority 7210

Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North) Hold Majority 26188

Ian Blackford (Ross, Skye and Lochaber) Hold Majority 9443

Jo Swinson (Dunbartonshire East) Lost by 149

Nigel Dodds (Belfast North) Lost by 1943

Caroline Lucas (Brighton Pavilion) Hold Majority 19940

Richard Tice (Hartlepool) Lost by 4861

Ann Widdicombe (Plymouth Sutton and Devonport) Lost by 22552

Anna Soubry (Broxtowe) Lost by 21934

Mike Gapes (Ilford South) Lost by 31194

Chuka Umunna (Cities of London and Westminster) Lost by 3953

Esther McVey (Tatton) Hold Majority 17387

Nia Griffith (Llanelli) Hold Majority 4670

Caroline Flint (Don Valley) Lost by 3630

Ian Duncan-Smith (Chingford and Woodford Green) Hold Majority 1262

Theresa Villiers (Chipping Barnet) Hold Majority 1212

Zac Goldsmith (Richmond Park) Lost by 7766

Tim Farron (Westmorland and Lonsdale) Hold Majority 1934

Luciana Berger (Finchley and Golders Green) Lost by 6562

Pete Wishart (Perth and North Perthshire) Hold Majority 7550

Joanna Cherry (Edinburgh South West) Hold Majority 11982

Frank Field (Birkenhead) Lost by 17705

Sarah Wollaston (Totnes) Lost by 12724

Sheryll Murray (Cornwall South East) Hold Majority 20971

Antoinette Sandbach (Eddisbury) Lost by 20513

Laura Pidcock (Durham North West) Lost by 1144

Yvette Cooper (Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford) Hold Majority 1276

Ed Miliband (Doncaster North) Hold Majority 2370

Rebecca Long-Bailey (Salford and Eccles) Hold Majority 16327

Dennis Skinner (Bolsover) Lost by 5299

Chris Williamson (Derby North) Lost by 20624

Dominic Raab (Esher and Walton) Hold Majority 2743

John Redwood (Wokingham) Hold Majority 7383

Jacob Rees-Mogg (Somerset North East) Hold Majority 14729

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Well as promised I've looked through the thread and the results are in.

 

Mike Gapes loses by a country mile, so YoungWillz (Me!) wins for this prediction.

 

Outside the leaders of parties, Sheryll Murray holds on by the largest majority so philheybrookbay wins the wooden spoon.

 

The beasts of the jungle (Swinson, Skinner, Dodds etc ) also went and compared with 2017 there is a veritable sea of red in the losing camp.

 

Well done everybody, pens down for five years. Let's hope in five years we can afford a pen, or even to run broadband!

[maryportfuncity 10,646]

So, actually saw Portillo in his new role as an entertaining speaker tonight. He discussed his defeat in 1997, noted the words Portillo moment have gone down in history and described the meaning of the phrase as "eating a massive bucket of shit in public!"

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Here's a thread I thought I'd never post in.
Looks like Portillo found a new gig.

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Bump.

 

You know, just in case...

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Johnson won't be one anyway either he stands down (very likely) or is moved to a "safe" Tory seat. (Based on current polling very few if any of these guaranteed so unlikely)

[YoungWillz 21,050]

Bump again.

 

Just in case.

 

Of course, many MPs are standing down so this might not be the fun it has been previously.

 

One thing I can guarantee...there will be Portillo moments in the second half of this year.