By-Election Bingo

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

We also have to consider what the strategists of the Centrist Tories is. People like Ken Clarke and Dominick Grieve who were pro-European if the party lurches to the right, if there were half a dozen of them (remember Ken Clarke might not fight another election) they could resign (or threaten to) and that would reduce the new leader into a minority Government (if all the by-elections went against them) Perhaps relying on the DUP to sustain them. (I think the Lib Dems would steer clear). It is interesting to note that Ken Clarke's Rushcliffe constituency was one of the few places in the midlands to vote for Remain (and of course the City of Leicester).

 

The truth is no-one knows what will happen but we should not rule anything out.

[Spade_Cooley 9,536]

If Labour do keep Corbyn, are we gonna see a Lazarus-like comeback for the Lib Dems?

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

If Labour do keep Corbyn, are we gonna see a Lazarus-like comeback for the Lib Dems?

 

It is win-win for them.If they keep Corbyn the centre left Voters will go to them but if they ditch Corbyn those activists who rejoined the Labour party to elect Corbyn will need some where else to go. It could be the Greens but Tim Farron is not tainted by coalition so he could pick some up.

 

The other problem is for Labour how do they get rid of Corbyn.

 

Labour MPs could keep his name off the ballot paper but Labour Members would not forgive this. If his name is on the ballot paper he wins and turns the tables on the plotters.

[themaninblack 2,112]

We also have to consider what the strategists of the Centrist Tories is. People like Ken Clarke and Dominick Grieve who were pro-European if the party lurches to the right, if there were half a dozen of them (remember Ken Clarke might not fight another election) they could resign (or threaten to) and that would reduce the new leader into a minority Government (if all the by-elections went against them) Perhaps relying on the DUP to sustain them. (I think the Lib Dems would steer clear). It is interesting to note that Ken Clarke's Rushcliffe constituency was one of the few places in the midlands to vote for Remain (and of course the City of Leicester).

 

The truth is no-one knows what will happen but we should not rule anything out.

 

If Labour do keep Corbyn, are we gonna see a Lazarus-like comeback for the Lib Dems?

 

 

If Labour do keep Corbyn, are we gonna see a Lazarus-like comeback for the Lib Dems?

 

It is win-win for them.If they keep Corbyn the centre left Voters will go to them but if they ditch Corbyn those activists who rejoined the Labour party to elect Corbyn will need some where else to go. It could be the Greens but Tim Farron is not tainted by coalition so he could pick some up.

 

The other problem is for Labour how do they get rid of Corbyn.

 

Labour MPs could keep his name off the ballot paper but Labour Members would not forgive this. If his name is on the ballot paper he wins and turns the tables on the plotters.

 

 

That's what I've been thinking about. Hardly anyone has mentioned those pro-Europe Tories yet they are the ones who'll be grieving the most from this vote. Their European dream, which was signed up by Ted Heath in 1973, is dead. They have been marginalised within their own party but a large minority of the Rank and File are still in the party, for the moment. That's a sizeable number of disaffected voters to tap into. The Liberals slate has been wiped cleaned by the electorate in 2015 so it may still be too early but they can build up again. Farron seems a nice chap but they desperately need someone of the charisma of the rootin', tootin' dog shootin' Jeremy Thorpe to lasso those wet Tories in.

 

As for Labour, well they're in a bit of a pickle. A Blairite coup would be suicide as there's still a lot in the party tainted by New Labour association. Maybe they need someone new and not tainted such as Dan Jarvis or Keir Starmer who could steer a path between NL, the Hampstead liberals, Islington latte left and the right-wing WC likes of Hoey and Field as well as appeal to Kennedy Lib Dems and the Euro Tories so as to reconstitute a sort of Centrist alternative. But it wont be easy and it'll take time as the centre-ground, so beloved of Blair/Cameron has effectively been destroyed...

[msc 18,476]

Around 200 Tories supported Remain so the Heath/Clarke style camp might be as big as the Eurosceptic lot, which means Tory civil war. The Liberals could do better but they have an issue called Tim Farron, or the invisible man as I've heard him called. Really, the Liberals need someone with spirit like Charlie Kennedy (ok, not that much spirit), instead of a bank clerk who looks like a Dr Who villain.

 

Think the Greens have hit their glass ceiling.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Boris as leader is by no means a certainty. When William Hague resigned straight after the 2001 election everyone thought Michael Portillo was a shoe-in. Instead we got Ian Duncan-Smith

[msc 18,476]

Boris as leader is by no means a certainty. When William Hague resigned straight after the 2001 election everyone thought Michael Portillo was a shoe-in. Instead we got Ian Duncan-Smith

 

And in 2016, people expect Boris to be a shoe-in. Instead we'll get Ian Duncan-Smith.

 

I so hope this daft joke doesn't become unexpectedly true.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

 

Boris as leader is by no means a certainty. When William Hague resigned straight after the 2001 election everyone thought Michael Portillo was a shoe-in. Instead we got Ian Duncan-Smith

 

And in 2016, people expect Boris to be a shoe-in. Instead we'll get Ian Duncan-Smith.

 

I so hope this daft joke doesn't become unexpectedly true.

 

 

I doubt he will put himself through that again but Liam Fox has been mentioned and then there is Priti Patel, Andrea Leadsom and Sajid Javid to consider. Keep an eye on the also rans.I think the centrists should put someone up for balance.

[msc 18,476]

Gove is my favourite. To win, that is. Not a personal favourite.

[themaninblack 2,112]

One thing I know about Tory leadership contests is that the favourite rarely wins...

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

 

We also have to consider what the strategists of the Centrist Tories is. People like Ken Clarke and Dominick Grieve who were pro-European if the party lurches to the right, if there were half a dozen of them (remember Ken Clarke might not fight another election) they could resign (or threaten to) and that would reduce the new leader into a minority Government (if all the by-elections went against them) Perhaps relying on the DUP to sustain them. (I think the Lib Dems would steer clear). It is interesting to note that Ken Clarke's Rushcliffe constituency was one of the few places in the midlands to vote for Remain (and of course the City of Leicester).

 

The truth is no-one knows what will happen but we should not rule anything out.

 

If Labour do keep Corbyn, are we gonna see a Lazarus-like comeback for the Lib Dems?

 

 

If Labour do keep Corbyn, are we gonna see a Lazarus-like comeback for the Lib Dems?

 

It is win-win for them.If they keep Corbyn the centre left Voters will go to them but if they ditch Corbyn those activists who rejoined the Labour party to elect Corbyn will need some where else to go. It could be the Greens but Tim Farron is not tainted by coalition so he could pick some up.

 

The other problem is for Labour how do they get rid of Corbyn.

 

Labour MPs could keep his name off the ballot paper but Labour Members would not forgive this. If his name is on the ballot paper he wins and turns the tables on the plotters.

 

 

That's what I've been thinking about. Hardly anyone has mentioned those pro-Europe Tories yet they are the ones who'll be grieving the most from this vote. Their European dream, which was signed up by Ted Heath in 1973, is dead. They have been marginalised within their own party but a large minority of the Rank and File are still in the party, for the moment. That's a sizeable number of disaffected voters to tap into. The Liberals slate has been wiped cleaned by the electorate in 2015 so it may still be too early but they can build up again. Farron seems a nice chap but they desperately need someone of the charisma of the rootin', tootin' dog shootin' Jeremy Thorpe to lasso those wet Tories in.

 

As for Labour, well they're in a bit of a pickle. A Blairite coup would be suicide as there's still a lot in the party tainted by New Labour association. Maybe they need someone new and not tainted such as Dan Jarvis or Keir Starmer who could steer a path between NL, the Hampstead liberals, Islington latte left and the right-wing WC likes of Hoey and Field as well as appeal to Kennedy Lib Dems and the Euro Tories so as to reconstitute a sort of Centrist alternative. But it wont be easy and it'll take time as the centre-ground, so beloved of Blair/Cameron has effectively been destroyed...

 

 

Around 200 Tories supported Remain so the Heath/Clarke style camp might be as big as the Eurosceptic lot, which means Tory civil war. The Liberals could do better but they have an issue called Tim Farron, or the invisible man as I've heard him called. Really, the Liberals need someone with spirit like Charlie Kennedy (ok, not that much spirit), instead of a bank clerk who looks like a Dr Who villain.

 

Think the Greens have hit their glass ceiling.

 

I feel there's a very noisy, purple-and-yellow-clad brigade of Union Jack-waving Cheshire Cats nobody's mentioning. UKIP's purpose has ended. Now they have a new purpose. Their purpose is to do to Labour in England what the SNP did to Labour in Scotland. And the worrying thing is I think they stand a chance. I'd like to say 4 million is their ceiling but unless something changes I'm not sure I see a way back for Labour. Yes, I know, they have 229 MPs, but you'd be surprised how quickly that can be whittled down (see, again, Scotland). I've voted Labour all my life (admittedly this consists of only 10 years-worth of votes) and right now I've no idea where my next votes going. I want a pragmatic, progressive party that can deliver me the country I want to see. That country took a hit on Thursday and I'm not sure how the new landscape will look.

 

Lib Dems aren't going to recover any time soon, I agree with msc that the Greens are about where they're going to get now, SNP will continue to dominate Scotland, for as long as Scotland remains. The political present is a fight between a warring Tory party, a scrambling Labour party and a rampant UKIP.

[Deathray 2,940]

Regarding Labour - the MPs can make it really easy for Corbyn not to win. His main support came from Corbyn supporters and Tories who wouldn't normally vote Labour but seized on the pay to vote membership mechanism all they need to is require people to have been full members for a certain time period and Corbyn won't win.(not the tendy membership which I and many others used to vote Corbyn last time)

[msc 18,476]

One thing I know about Tory leadership contests is that the favourite rarely wins...

 

Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine, Ken Clarke, Willie Whitelaw, Ken Clarke, Quintin Hogg, Reg Maudling, and Rab Butler would all agree with that.

 

And Ken Clarke of course.

[msc 18,476]

Regarding Labour - the MPs can make it really easy for Corbyn not to win. His main support came from Corbyn supporters and Tories who wouldn't normally vote Labour but seized on the pay to vote membership mechanism all they need to is require people to have been full members for a certain time period and Corbyn won't win.(not the tendy membership which I and many others used to vote Corbyn last time)

 

One slight flaw with that. In the first round, Corbyn won 49.6% of the party members votes. That is full members, not affiliates or £3ers. He'd have certainly won the leadership without a single £3 spent.

 

The easiest way is to get him to resign, or failing that, just not re-nominating him. Two of his nominees are dead now after all.

[Deathray 2,940]

 

Regarding Labour - the MPs can make it really easy for Corbyn not to win. His main support came from Corbyn supporters and Tories who wouldn't normally vote Labour but seized on the pay to vote membership mechanism all they need to is require people to have been full members for a certain time period and Corbyn won't win.(not the tendy membership which I and many others used to vote Corbyn last time)

 

One slight flaw with that. In the first round, Corbyn won 49.6% of the party members votes. That is full members, not affiliates or £3ers. He'd have certainly won the leadership without a single £3 spent.

 

The easiest way is to get him to resign, or failing that, just not re-nominating him. Two of his nominees are dead now after all.

 

 

He wouldn't manage that again, even among his own supporters he hasn't been a resounding success.

[Deathray 2,940]

 

Regarding Labour - the MPs can make it really easy for Corbyn not to win. His main support came from Corbyn supporters and Tories who wouldn't normally vote Labour but seized on the pay to vote membership mechanism all they need to is require people to have been full members for a certain time period and Corbyn won't win.(not the tendy membership which I and many others used to vote Corbyn last time)

 

One slight flaw with that. In the first round, Corbyn won 49.6% of the party members votes. That is full members, not affiliates or £3ers. He'd have certainly won the leadership without a single £3 spent.

 

The easiest way is to get him to resign, or failing that, just not re-nominating him. Two of his nominees are dead now after all.

 

 

If I nominated him I'd be a bit worried now. Theme team for next year?

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Lord Ashcroft has released a load of post-Brexit polling and has come up with a lot of interesting - if largely predictable - findings. Among them, these concerning the Tory Leadership...

 

People who voted Conservative at the last General Election came down 58-42 in favour of Leave.

 

Among Conservative voters, their preferred next leaders were as follows:

 

LEAVE

Boris 43%

Gove 19%

May 15%

IDS 8% (No, really...)

 

REMAIN

May 28%

Osborne 22%

Boris 12%

Davidson 10%

 

Overall, apparently, this converts to Boris 28%, May 18%, Davidson 10%, Gove 9%, Osborne 8%.

 

Now that's Tory voters, not members, but if we say the 9% of Gove's (plus whatever support IDS gets) goes to Boris, that puts him around 40%. May gets Davidson and Osborne's support, so that's around 35%. Then there's another quarter of the vote up for grabs. I personally can't see past Boris, he's popular nationally and riding the crest of a wave. Plus, the next leader almost certainly has to be a Brexiteer. I think May's the only Remainer they'd accept, given she SO lukewarm, although I read a piece in one of the papers saying Eurosceptics feel she didn't have the courage of her convictions where Boris did and will punish her for that. I can't see it being an outsider, it will be someone big, and I think the Tory Brexiteers will unite around Boris, like the party did around Michael Howard when they knifed IDS. The Remainers won't stay silent and will put up somebody under their banner, but only when the vote happens will we see how divided the party actually is.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

 

Regarding Labour - the MPs can make it really easy for Corbyn not to win. His main support came from Corbyn supporters and Tories who wouldn't normally vote Labour but seized on the pay to vote membership mechanism all they need to is require people to have been full members for a certain time period and Corbyn won't win.(not the tendy membership which I and many others used to vote Corbyn last time)

 

One slight flaw with that. In the first round, Corbyn won 49.6% of the party members votes. That is full members, not affiliates or £3ers. He'd have certainly won the leadership without a single £3 spent.

 

The easiest way is to get him to resign, or failing that, just not re-nominating him. Two of his nominees are dead now after all.

 

 

And another's the Mayor of London.

[msc 18,476]

And Frank Field had his health issues too. I thought Harry Harpham had nominated Corbyn, but he was just a supporter, it was about to get highly worrying for the rest.

[Deathray 2,940]

I will never understand the popularity of Boris Johnson. I can sort of understand Nigel Farage's popularity, but how can a man like Boris who says so much without ever actually saying anything be considered a viable Prime Minister. He's also extremely extremely right wing but hides it under his buffoon persona.

 

 

 

Regarding Labour - the MPs can make it really easy for Corbyn not to win. His main support came from Corbyn supporters and Tories who wouldn't normally vote Labour but seized on the pay to vote membership mechanism all they need to is require people to have been full members for a certain time period and Corbyn won't win.(not the tendy membership which I and many others used to vote Corbyn last time)

 

One slight flaw with that. In the first round, Corbyn won 49.6% of the party members votes. That is full members, not affiliates or £3ers. He'd have certainly won the leadership without a single £3 spent.

 

The easiest way is to get him to resign, or failing that, just not re-nominating him. Two of his nominees are dead now after all.

 

 

And another's the Mayor of London.

 

 

Tinfoil hat time? The New Labour aspect of the party didn't want these people around? 1 shooting, 1 sideways move, 1 healthscare - doesn't look to suspicious?

[themaninblack 2,112]

Thing is, the reason Corbyn was nominated in the first place was because they wanted to "widen the debate", so some Labour MPs who would never normally nominate anyone like Corbyn made sure he was on the ticket. They wont make that mistake again...

 

Of course there may not be a Tory leadership contest at all. When IDS was forced out, Howard was proclaimed as the new leader unopposed.

The clock's ticking, Europe are demanding that Article 50 declaration asap. It would be more convenient for the government time-wise if Johnson was elected unopposed in July and takes the reigns early so the Brexiteers could begin negotiations earlier.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Thing is, the reason Corbyn was nominated in the first place was because they wanted to "widen the debate", so some Labour MPs who would never normally nominate anyone like Corbyn made sure he was on the ticket. They wont make that mistake again...

 

Of course there may not be a Tory leadership contest at all. When IDS was forced out, Howard was proclaimed as the new leader unopposed.

The clock's ticking, Europe are demanding that Article 50 declaration asap. It would be more convenient for the government time-wise if Johnson was elected unopposed in July and takes the reigns early so the Brexiteers could begin negotiations earlier.

 

Yeah I wasn't spouting conspiracy theories on Corbyn backers, just making a note about Sadiq. If Corbyn needs nominating to get on the ballot (which nobody quite knows, as it's not usually an issue for a party leader in a leadership contest - my feeling is he probably does) then I can't see how he gets on the ballot. What happens with Labour members in that eventuality I don't know. Not to mention, even as a Labour supporter and someone who follows politics pretty closely, I can't think of anybody who 'stands out' as a replacement. The New Labour lot were buried in the last leadership contest - I can't see it being Cooper and Burnham fancies being Greater Manchester's new metro mayor. Alan Johnson would reject it for about the sixth time. Liz Kendall and Chuka Umunna are both ostensibly Blairites, so same New Labour problem. Dan Jarvis is heavily tipped but virtually invisible. That might help Labour, a fresh face, but with the prospect of an Autumn election, is it enough time for him to establish himself as a creditable alternative to Boris in the voters' eyes? I know Jess Phillips has a lot of supporters, and might be a good fit. Also think it's time Labour provided a female alternative, especially to Boris, though this changes of course if it's Teresa. I always liked Stella Creasey, wanted her to get the Deputy Leadership but she's clearly not popular enough. Keir Starmer's another tipped for greatness, but, again, suffers from the invisibility factor, and while he may be very able I can't see him as the charismatic alternative to Boris that Labour needs.

 

I like the Tory lightning strike option, like you said it worked before (what a crazy day that was, although, of course, since Thursday, the definition of 'crazy day' has changed significantly) but I'm not sure that there's that kind of unity this time around. Back then, there were only a couple of years before a General Election, they wanted a safe hand on the tiller and apparently everyone agreed on Howard (well, everyone but IDS I'm guessing). This time, the Tory Party is split down the middle, and I can't see the pro-Europeans not putting a candidate forward, even if it's just as a protest. Equally though, I don't see it being a multi-candidate field, I'd expect no more than 3. Boris, probably Teresa, and somebody more pro-European - maybe Ken fancies a last hurrah, especially since it won't cost him anything as he knows he won't win.

 

As for the Article 50 declaration, the Brexiteers seem fairly certain that 1. It doesn't need to be invoked any time soon and 2. It probably doesn't need to be invoked at all. So, as I'm sure Chancellor-to-be Gove would say, Europe can demand all it wants, but Britain doesn't march to Europe's beat any longer. They'll just have to wait until we're good and ready.

 

One final thought: if Labour get rid of Corbyn, I can't see how we can legitimately continue without a new General Election. Neither major party has the leader who was in office after the last General Election, we're about to enter our most important negotiations since the Second World War and we need a government with the people's support.

[Rotten Ali 600]

 

 

Out of interest Ali where are you canvassing?.

The seat is called Gedling, it's normally semi safe Labour, with the Tory party in an easy second place. It's north east of the Nottingham inner 3 city seats, before it gets rural. It used to be a mining area but now that's becoming a country park. Really being said that its the labour vote that's come down so very hard time for out. In essence this area of the country gets well below its ration of spending by government and euro projects. 2nd rate under used public transport links, and many attempts to remove the oap's bus passes. Still we get free 2 hour parking near our high street shopping. But when the sink estates are suffering twice the national average of unemployment and many others under employed there is no dought that people wish to object to euro money being wasted left right and centre. And latest figures ignoring the 6% undecided are standing at 72.5% Vote Leave, 27.5% RemaIN.

All that makes sense, but I'm afraid if they think that leaving the EU will lead to that money coming their way they're sorely mistaken. The cause of their problems is government policy not EU policy. We're the 5th largest economy in the world (as the Leavers keep saying) so there's plenty of wealth in the country, the fact it's all concentrated in the south-east pisses us all off. Still, at least we'll all be satisfied when we can royally castigate Prime Minister Johnson and Chancellor Gove instead of those faceless bureaucrats in Brussels. It's going to be a tense night tomorrow...

 

Are you counting Ali?

Was at the count. Watching over the 80 or so local government officials who conducted it. Got there at about 10:20pm along with the arrival of some of the 57 ballot boxes. As they sorted the papers into piles to count the total number of votes you could start to understand the weight of each side's likely vote. The first three ballot box tip outs were quite close and not very promising. Then the forth and fifth were like striking gold. As these votes were first counted into tens we could start to see local pockets averaging 3/7 2/8 and 1/9 ratios in favour of out. By 1am they had the sum total number of votes cast and a turnout figure. And at this point I remember thinking that the 74% figure was a bit on the small side and could only help our cause. Still it looked too close to call nationally. Definatly a local win but more likely a nation loss to RemaIN.

I had predictions from conducting my own exit poll study during the day that it would be a local win for leave in the region of 61%. But as the count continued, into a second phase after 1:30am, this time by sepperating each of the 67 bundles of one thousand votes into two piles it looked closer. As each pair of stacks rose it was just becoming obvious that they had an advantage to Leave. Then when sorted, the piles were counted down into tens then grouped into hundreds. Each table of counters was getting wins for Leave and news began filtering in from other counts to increase the Leave lead bit by bit.

By 4:30 the count concluded for us. About six hours of considerable manual effort to get to a position of knowing exactly how many would count for each side and to have assessed each vote visually to assess if it was valid and correctly cast. In the end only 58 rejected votes were noted. The saddest being that signed by an old lady of 97. By writing her name and date of birth in the lower left hand corner she invalidated her own vote to Leave the EU.

The drive home was punctuated by the news on radio that Wales had voted to Leave and only then it was dawning in more ways than one that the country had the courage to stand on it's own two feet again.

Watched some TV coverage but fell asleep on the sofa about 5:30am.

Woke from my slumber at about 7:30am to Mrs H getting up and muddled through the day, attending the school sports day for my lad in the afternoon blazing sun, with only a late siesta afterwards. Partied Friday night with the winning team (mainly UKIPers, a number of ex conservatives, a LibDem for out, some new blood and a few of exLabour types, me included) at a local pub from 8pm till midnight.

Shot through with all the effort and now recovering after yet another alcohol charged event last night of a secondary school reunion for us group of 50 years olds.

Mad...

Question is do I join this post BREXIT UKIP party? They are a more normal bunch of people than any political crowd I've ever come across! Exuberant and realistic but I could not be classed as close to rampant extremist or anything racist.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

 

 

 

Out of interest Ali where are you canvassing?.

The seat is called Gedling, it's normally semi safe Labour, with the Tory party in an easy second place. It's north east of the Nottingham inner 3 city seats, before it gets rural. It used to be a mining area but now that's becoming a country park. Really being said that its the labour vote that's come down so very hard time for out. In essence this area of the country gets well below its ration of spending by government and euro projects. 2nd rate under used public transport links, and many attempts to remove the oap's bus passes. Still we get free 2 hour parking near our high street shopping. But when the sink estates are suffering twice the national average of unemployment and many others under employed there is no dought that people wish to object to euro money being wasted left right and centre. And latest figures ignoring the 6% undecided are standing at 72.5% Vote Leave, 27.5% RemaIN.

All that makes sense, but I'm afraid if they think that leaving the EU will lead to that money coming their way they're sorely mistaken. The cause of their problems is government policy not EU policy. We're the 5th largest economy in the world (as the Leavers keep saying) so there's plenty of wealth in the country, the fact it's all concentrated in the south-east pisses us all off. Still, at least we'll all be satisfied when we can royally castigate Prime Minister Johnson and Chancellor Gove instead of those faceless bureaucrats in Brussels. It's going to be a tense night tomorrow...

 

Are you counting Ali?

Was at the count. Watching over the 80 or so local government officials who conducted it. Got there at about 10:20pm along with the arrival of some of the 57 ballot boxes. As they sorted the papers into piles to count the total number of votes you could start to understand the weight of each side's likely vote. The first three ballot box tip outs were quite close and not very promising. Then the forth and fifth were like striking gold. As these votes were first counted into tens we could start to see local pockets averaging 3/7 2/8 and 1/9 ratios in favour of out. By 1am they had the sum total number of votes cast and a turnout figure. And at this point I remember thinking that the 74% figure was a bit on the small side and could only help our cause. Still it looked too close to call nationally. Definatly a local win but more likely a nation loss to RemaIN.

I had predictions from conducting my own exit poll study during the day that it would be a local win for leave in the region of 61%. But as the count continued, into a second phase after 1:30am, this time by sepperating each of the 67 bundles of one thousand votes into two piles it looked closer. As each pair of stacks rose it was just becoming obvious that they had an advantage to Leave. Then when sorted, the piles were counted down into tens then grouped into hundreds. Each table of counters was getting wins for Leave and news began filtering in from other counts to increase the Leave lead bit by bit.

By 4:30 the count concluded for us. About six hours of considerable manual effort to get to a position of knowing exactly how many would count for each side and to have assessed each vote visually to assess if it was valid and correctly cast. In the end only 58 rejected votes were noted. The saddest being that signed by an old lady of 97. By writing her name and date of birth in the lower left hand corner she invalidated her own vote to Leave the EU.

The drive home was punctuated by the news on radio that Wales had voted to Leave and only then it was dawning in more ways than one that the country had the courage to stand on it's own two feet again.

Watched some TV coverage but fell asleep on the sofa about 5:30am.

Woke from my slumber at about 7:30am to Mrs H getting up and muddled through the day, attending the school sports day for my lad in the afternoon blazing sun, with only a late siesta afterwards. Partied Friday night with the winning team (mainly UKIPers, a number of ex conservatives, a LibDem for out, some new blood and a few of exLabour types, me included) at a local pub from 8pm till midnight.

Shot through with all the effort and now recovering after yet another alcohol charged event last night of a secondary school reunion for us group of 50 years olds.

Mad...

Question is do I join this post BREXIT UKIP party? They are a more normal bunch of people than any political crowd I've ever come across! Exuberant and realistic but I could not be classed as close to rampant extremist or anything racist.

 

 

Thanks for the thorough insight into referendum night. Watching the BBC's coverage, I think I was pretty sure once Newcastle came in, and virtually certain once places like Sunderland and Kettering came in, that we'd end up Leaving. As for you UKIP ponderance, all I would say is, however 'normal' a bunch they may seem at a local level, they are still led by a demagogue with more extreme views than some in his party. If the party had someone like Suzanne Evans in charge, they would be a lot more palatable. I don't agree with her on much, same with Carswell, but at least they seem to stand for more than jingoism and stereotypes.

 

Further to the earlier discussions had here about the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, Cameron just said in Parliament that it would be up to the next Prime Minister to decide if there should be a new election and whether it could happen. I'm wondering if, following this, an amendment may be made to the Act to allow for a vote on a new election in the event of a change of Prime Minister mid-term, particularly if in this instance it proves difficult to achieve.

 

I was wondering whether to discuss Labour's travails here (as has been done previously) or in the EU forum. I'm happy to do either so I'll await advice, and also for a little more of a clear outcome to the current turmoil. Simply to say though that never in my life or in my learning of history have I seen, or heard of, 2/3rds of a cabinet, or shadow cabinet, resign and the leader still pledge to stay on. It's a crazy time.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Rover don't take Kettering as any sort of barometer. MP is rabidly Eurosceptic there is a little triumverate in Kettering, Corby & Wellingborough. The result here was 61:39. In Corby 64:36.