The EU Referendum Hokey Cokey

[gcreptile 10,966]

Leave-voting MP Nadine Dorries rejects the Brexit deal because it would leave the UK without seats in the European Parliament:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nadie-dorries-slams-brexit-deal-leave-remain-jk-rowling-a8639216.html

 

Edit: Thought it may not be quite as stupid as it sounds.

[Deathray 2,940]

14 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Leave-voting MP Nadine Dorries rejects the Brexit deal because it would leave the UK without seats in the European Parliament:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nadie-dorries-slams-brexit-deal-leave-remain-jk-rowling-a8639216.html

 

Edit: Thought it may not be quite as stupid as it sounds.

 

As much as Nadine Dories is a cunt.

 

Whilst she's a complete inarticulate waste of space her actual criticism is that we're not getting proper Brexit and will still be bound by the EU's rules on many areas without any say anymore, whereas her idea of Brexit was obviously complete freedom from the EU and then no need for the MEPs.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

1 hour ago, gcreptile said:

Leave-voting MP Nadine Dorries rejects the Brexit deal because it would leave the UK without seats in the European Parliament:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/nadie-dorries-slams-brexit-deal-leave-remain-jk-rowling-a8639216.html

 

Edit: Thought it may not be quite as stupid as it sounds.

Yes, yes it is as stupid as it sounds.

[Deathray 2,940]

Call me a cynic but surely they should be someone else with the knowledge of how many letters have gone in, otherwise Graham Brady could just say he's only received less than 48 to keep his friends in power. Seems a bit daft that not even the vice-chairman know..

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-46253816/sir-graham-brady-even-wife-doesn-t-know-number-of-letters

[charon 4,943]

If they get the letters needed, She'll win the Vote

[Deathray 2,940]

2 minutes ago, charon said:

If they get the letters needed, She'll win the Vote

 

Obviously! If there was a fervent desire to get rid of her then they'd be well over 48 letters already. 

[charon 4,943]

Yip.

[Deathray 2,940]

Or their biding their time to do it until after the meaningful vote.

 

 

I still have an odd feeling that in 30 years time we're going to read Graham Brady's memoirs where he says that there was 70 letters in his hand the entire time, but as nobody else knew how many he had he kept them close to his cards worried about the repercussions of a leadership election (in both Cameron and May's reigns). 

[Bibliogryphon 9,571]

10 hours ago, Deathray said:

Or their biding their time to do it until after the meaningful vote.

 

 

I still have an odd feeling that in 30 years time we're going to read Graham Brady's memoirs where he says that there was 70 letters in his hand the entire time, but as nobody else knew how many he had he kept them close to his cards worried about the repercussions of a leadership election (in both Cameron and May's reigns). 

The Chairman of the 1922 Committee has to be an honest broker. Even if they don't make it public back benchers would talk and if the Chairman was found not to be representing the back benchers then the whole system would disintegrate.  He doesn't have 48. I would suggest he has low thirties. 

[Deathray 2,940]

2 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 The Chairman of the 1922 Committee has to be an honest broker. Even if they don't make it public back benchers would talk and if the Chairman was found not to be representing the back benchers then the whole system would disintegrate.  He doesn't have 48. I would suggest he has low thirties. 

 

There's always going to be people who won't even admit to colleagues they have put a letter in, in case it harms their career. It wouldn't take a genius to work out who these are and remove them from the official count. 

[Deathray 2,940]

DUP threatening to withdraw support if deal goes through.

 

Clusterfuck. 

[gcreptile 10,966]

I read a theory that the hard Brexit is very much desired by the financial sector, because the likely economic collapse would give an excuse to transform the UK into a free-market-paradise (à la Shock Doctrine).

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

14 hours ago, gcreptile said:

I read a theory that the hard Brexit is very much desired by the financial sector, because the likely economic collapse would give an excuse to transform the UK into a free-market-paradise (à la Shock Doctrine).

I'd wager a free market may be better than being shackled to the utter shite that is running Europe at the moment.

[Deathray 2,940]

On 12/10/2015 at 17:32, msc said:

 

I'd settle for a resurgence in quality Conservative party meltdowns.

 

Seems you've had more than your fair share of settlement!

 

Now in latest news 

 

Labour will call a VoNC in the government should the government lose the EU Referendum deal vote.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46416591

 

Note that in the scenario of a Motion of No Confidence it can trigger a new Coupled with the DUP threatening to lose support this could see us going into another general election on a simple majority if no motion of confidence in any government is passed within 14 days, unlike the 2/3rd majority required in normal sitting. Crikey. 

 

That Fixed Term Parliaments Act is really doing it's job isn't it! 

 

Assuming everybody votes with their party and recently stated positions.

 

Conservative 315 

 

Labour 257

SNP 35

Lib Dem 12

Plaid Cymru 4

Green Party 1

= 309 

 

Abstentions - Sinn Fein 7

The DUP appear to have withdrawn support for the government in all but name recently. If they agree to vote for the no confidence motion then it could be won 

 

315 - 324

 

There is also 8 MPs who are independent.

 

You'd expect Charlie Elphicke to vote with the government (suspended Tory)

Frank Field could go either way, but I'd put him down to vote against the government (resigned Labour as supports relatively hard Brexit, but deeply unpopular in his constituency party and a new election could finish his career )

You'd expect Andrew  Griffiths to vote with the government (as a new election would finish the slimy git off)

You'd expect Kelvin Hopkins to vote against the government (ex-Labour but hard Brexiteer, this deal won't satisfy him)

You'd expect Ivan Lewis to vote against the government (ex-Labour, suspended)

Jared O'Mara is unlikely to vote at all due to a multitude of health issues

You'd expect John Woodcock to vote against the government.

 

I'd expect Sylvia Hermon to vote with the DUP's position, when it's clear, but would hedge her as a vote against the government given the backstop (Northern Irish independent 

 

So that would give you  317 - 313 to the government with  DUP abstention, 333 - 313 to the government if the DUP vote for in confidence or 317 - 328 if the DUP go for the motion of no confidence.

 

Labour need the DUP to agree to this motion of no confidence to get it through. 

 

The situation gets messier when you consider the viable opposition government which would also need the DUP in it :eek:; 

 

a Labour, SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid, Green and DUP coalition would suffice. I can't see that happening which would mean a new election.

 

The other option is a National Government of Labour and Conservative, which might be the sensible option at this point.

[charon 4,943]

Deathers, why do you bring New Labour up as a relevant entity?

 

They're fucked in most of the UK, their betrayal in the Indy Ref won't be forgotten either.

 

Fuck them and all who'd vote for them.

 

Cunts to a man.

 

* wummin don't count, shouldn't have a vote etc.

 

 

[Boudicca 702]

Just now, charon said:

 

 

* wummin don't count, shouldn't have a vote etc.

 

 

Whit? You said they could have have half a vote as long as it was approved by the registered owner / father/ husband. It's in your manifesto. I'm considering not voting for you now. Oh wait...

[YoungWillz 21,036]

Delia Smith was on Marr this morning. Avowed remainer.

 

Her contribution? Brexit would be (and is) chaos if Leave won, and there should be another Referendum.

 

What on earth? I'd have had Sammy Wilson on to quiz him on the VoNC, and maybe that resigned Minister Sam Whatsisname. Why in the name of the wee man do we care what a celebrity thinks? Who's next, Mr Marr? Joey Essex?

 

 

[charon 4,943]

Whits worse is she is an ex celebrity.

 

Hoor.

[En Passant 3,741]

Oh come on, she's got history for extremely well informed comment on a variety of topics that have nothing to do with cooking.

 

 

 

[charon 4,943]

What year?

 

 

Exactly ex celebrity.

 

 

She's not even a Director/major shareholder from memory.

 

 

Our webbed posters may enlighten on that tho.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

21 minutes ago, charon said:

What year?

 

 

Exactly ex celebrity.

 

 

She's not even a Director/major shareholder from memory.

 

 

Our webbed posters may enlighten on that tho.

I dunno any web fingered posters BUT I think she resigned years ago.

She is a twat.

[charon 4,943]

7 minutes ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

I dunno any web fingered posters BUT I think she resigned years ago.

She is a twat.

 

 

Well done with posting that, keyboards can be cunt.

[Deathray 2,940]

2 hours ago, charon said:

Deathers, why do you bring New Labour up as a relevant entity?

 

They're fucked in most of the UK, their betrayal in the Indy Ref won't be forgotten either.

 

Fuck them and all who'd vote for them.

 

Cunts to a man.

 

* wummin don't count, shouldn't have a vote etc.

 

 

 

Better than the alternative for an awful lot of us south of the border who don't have the luxury of the SNP to turn too. 

 

Not to mention the red rosette on a donkey heart-lands still exist.

 

And because of the tight parliamentary arithmetic, if Labour shoot for this VoNC there is a realistic possibility of it going through, which is what I was bringing up. 

[charon 4,943]

Fair enough.

 

Should still spit in the cunts faces tho.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

The DUP siding with Labour to bring about the possibility of John Lansman Corbyn taking power would be a true 'Turkeys voting for Christmas' moment.