The EU Referendum Hokey Cokey

[Deathray 2,940]

End is in fucking site.  At last. As everything builds up to Super Saturday on the 19th October.

 

• Boris has agreed a deal with the EU.
• That deal must be ratified by the EU parliament and the UK parliament.
• The DUP (after meeting with terrorists) has rejected it.
• However Labour have indicated they will be whipping in support of putting Boris Johnson's deal to the people in a People's Vote.

 

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

I have seen one suggestion that Boris wants to make Saturday's vote Deal or No Deal - no extensions.

 

If ERG & DUP don't back it Boris gets his No Deal by default.

 

Could trigger a VoNC but there is going to be an election anyway.

 

But he can claim he negotiated a deal in good faith

 

Cynical, self serving arrogant fucking bastard

[msc 18,476]

ERG and the Kinnock lot will vote for it, it'll pass.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

If he gets the whole of the ERG he might just manage it but Nigel Farage has already said this is not Brexit.

 

Whilst at the moment Nigel is irrelevant if the Brexit party field candidates against the Conservative party they could cost Boris seats and also if Brexit is 'done' Corbyn will move the argument on to austerity and fears of US involvement in the NHS which will be much more fertile ground for him.

 

I also think the four year period before Stormont gets a veto is a red herring. There is a possibilty a cross border poll on Irish Unification will be held before the four years are up.

[Grim Up North 3,726]

19 minutes ago, msc said:

ERG and the Kinnock lot will vote for it, it'll pass.

 

There is a play of some political beauty heading our way later this afternoon or this evening.

The EU will announce that they feel this is the best deal that can ever be achieved with the UK and therefore for the sake of the other important EU business they have decided that it is either this deal or no deal and no extension will be allowed (this can be a hollow threat because the UK Govt have to vote on 19th and EU have until 31st to change their mind).

 

The beautiful bit is that this then gives the UK Parliament a vote between This Deal or No Deal. Parliament has already voted  328 - 301 in favour of rejecting No Deal as a catastrophic result and so they will be left in a position to either vote for This Deal or vote for No Deal (that they have already voted against due to it being catastrophic in their words).

 

Hence a vote against This Deal is a vote for a 'catastrophic' No Deal.

 

On that basis the Deal should get through but with lots of gnashing of teeth.

 

[the_engineer 1,415]

6 hours ago, Grim Up North said:

 

There is a play of some political beauty heading our way later this afternoon or this evening.

The EU will announce that they feel this is the best deal that can ever be achieved with the UK and therefore for the sake of the other important EU business they have decided that it is either this deal or no deal and no extension will be allowed (this can be a hollow threat because the UK Govt have to vote on 19th and EU have until 31st to change their mind).

 

The beautiful bit is that this then gives the UK Parliament a vote between This Deal or No Deal. Parliament has already voted  328 - 301 in favour of rejecting No Deal as a catastrophic result and so they will be left in a position to either vote for This Deal or vote for No Deal (that they have already voted against due to it being catastrophic in their words).

 

Hence a vote against This Deal is a vote for a 'catastrophic' No Deal.

 

On that basis the Deal should get through but with lots of gnashing of teeth.

 

 

I think this is exactly what will happen and have just be discussing this exact point with a relative. The EU really doesn't want no deal it will be damaging to them more so than they're willing to admit.  It will force parliaments hand to vote for this or de facto no deal. Alot of MPs will reluctantly vote it through. 

[Deathray 2,940]

2 hours ago, the_engineer said:

 

I think this is exactly what will happen and have just be discussing this exact point with a relative. The EU really doesn't want no deal it will be damaging to them more so than they're willing to admit.  It will force parliaments hand to vote for this or de facto no deal. Alot of MPs will reluctantly vote it through. 

 

This is exactly what has happened, whilst many have rightly pointed out Jean Claude Juncker is not the man who makes this decision he's basically indicated no future extensions. So it's this deal or no deal.

 

Labour cannot electorally vote for no deal, so this will get through parliament.  

[the_engineer 1,415]

16 minutes ago, Kinnock said:

 

This is exactly what has happened, whilst many have rightly pointed out Jean Claude Juncker is not the man who makes this decision he's basically indicated no future extensions. So it's this deal or no deal.

 

Labour cannot electorally vote for no deal, so this will get through parliament.  

 

I'm just happy it's over, even as as someone who voted Brexit I just never want to hear Brexit ever again.  No sequels please lol. Just hope remainers don't start a big rejoining campaign. 

[Deathray 2,940]

9 minutes ago, the_engineer said:

 

I'm just happy it's over, even as as someone who voted Brexit I just never want to hear Brexit ever again.  No sequels please lol. Just hope remainers don't start a big rejoining campaign. 

 

Over, is it fuck! 

 

I would keep your celebratory drinks firmly in your fridge locked away, we've been here before remember. 

 

The stance on a Brexit extension from the EU has long been that it would only be granted for an election or another purpose (referendum), and Juncker hasn't explicitly ruled it out just said he couldn't see it. 

 

However some good news for your Brexit sycophantics, Labour MPs in leave constituency have nothing to fear in voting for this joke of a deal then....

 

 

Could still see an extension and an election. But with Boris campaigning on 'my deal' or 'no deal', to be honest it's better for labour just to vote for Boris's deal and fight the election other issues.

[Deathray 2,940]

At the end of the day the deal Boris has negotiated is the bad deal, it was always going to be the bad deal.

 

So it can be used to pin the blame on Labour for no deal in the upcoming election.

[Deathray 2,940]

Election Maps (@ElectionMaps on twitter, useful resource in these times) now predicting parliament to vote

 

For Boris's Deal: Ayes 312* - Noes 297

(the margin of error with unknowns (25) does allow for the deal to fail to pass with a mere handful of switching MPs)

 

(couple more such as Sarah Champion are down as unknown but appear to be voting for the deal)

 

Against Second Referendum: Ayes 292 - Noes - 320 

(with 24 unknowns this highly unlikely to pass without declared noes changing their minds)

 

 

It's being updated regularly, so worth keeping an eye on overnight

[Deathray 2,940]

Just doing some more number rummagging in that spreadsheet. 

 

They've got 7 Labour MPs as rebels.

John Mann has insisted at least 12 Labour MPs will vote for the deal.

 

Which gives you 317 ayes to 297 noes and brings unknowns down 19.

 

Once you add up all the non-voters, which is 16 (15 legit non-voters and Jared O'fucking Mara). Even if all unknowns vote for the deal it will pass by 1 vote.

 

Ayes to the right 317

Noes to the left 316 

 

It's also worth noting that spreadsheet has some hardline ERG's going to vote against the deal, however they aren't confirming if they'll vote for it until tomorrow so with guys like Mark Francois if they do vote for it, it should pass on a handful of votes rather than one.

 

Interesting thing is what happens afterwards. How quickly to we move to passing the relevant legislation and then having an election, as presumably Boris wants to avoid a difficult Queens Speech (one he'll lose) vote on Tuesday?

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

There is too much in the new WA they requires Parliament and the public to trust Johnson and if he were a Top Trumps card his trust score would be so low the only person he could beat would be Carl Beech.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,219]

11 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

There is too much in the new WA they requires Parliament and the public to trust Johnson and if he were a Top Trumps card his trust score would be so low the only person he could beat would be Carl Beech.

.....and the trust score of Corbyn, Swinson etc would be about the same as Jeffrey Archer and Gary Glitter.

That is the whole sodding point, Johnson is a monumental dick and as slippery as an eel but he is the only one who is trusted, by degree, more than the others to deliver what people voted for. 

The opposition is as bad, if not worse, than him and it is yet another case of the public having the choice between dog shit and cat shit.

If there is no good alternative we have to run with him and, be in no doubt, if he delivers the Brexit, as half arsed as it will be, he will win the next General Election with a healthy majority.

In truth, millions of us would rather have the blond shagger than a marxist bell end or a libtard luvvie.

Yes, it's that bad!

[Deathray 2,940]

Ignoring the utter bollocks in the post above. Today could become a parliamentary shitshow....

 

Government threatening to withdraw the vote if the Letwin Amendment passes (which is designed to prevent no deal by default) on the 31st October,  The only reason to withdraw it is if today was designed to complete circumvent the Benn Act.

[Toast 16,142]

2 hours ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

yet another case of the public having the choice between dog shit and cat shit.

 

[paddyfool 379]

On 17/10/2019 at 22:01, Kinnock said:

 

Over, is it fuck! 

 

Agreed. Even if the house pass something, there will still be many years ahead of hammering out trade deals etc, plus Leavers and Remainers will continue to blame each other for many further years about things being generally shitty in the aftermath of severing this many ties with half of our allies and all of our neighbours.

 

Literally the only voter I know who'll have got what they wanted post Brexit ref was one guy who voted Leave specifically to fuck the UK over. 

 

And of course there'll be a rejoin campaign. Although personally I'm more tempted just to get out of the UK (even though Brexit makes that a little more challenging). 

[TQR 14,398]

The DUP have indicated they're backing the Letwin amendment. How funny.

 

What I also found entertaining is how big an arsehole Keir Starmer ripped for Steve Barclay. So forensic in his demolition of this shambolic Johnson-headed May-esque deal. Fantastic to watch.

[TQR 14,398]

5 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

The DUP have indicated they're backing the Letwin amendment.

 

Passed, 322-306.

[Deathray 2,940]

Election time then?

 

If the EU grants the extension that gives Labour and the Tories a clear 3 month run with no threat of no deal to have the election that is desperately needed?

[Deathray 2,940]

Jared O'Mara actually voted on this apparently...

[TQR 14,398]

Election before January is out, I reckon.

 

Any Labour MPs bold enough to try a stand against Corbyn, speak up now. Starmer? Thornberry? Phillips? Watson? Lammy? Would be nice, wouldn't it?

[Deathray 2,940]

3 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said:

Election before January is out, I reckon.

 

Any Labour MPs bold enough to try a stand against Corbyn, speak up now. Starmer? Thornberry? Phillips? Watson? Lammy? Would be nice, wouldn't it?

 

Think the election has to before January to be honest.

 

The Labour parties refusal for the election was based on there being no extension. 

If the extension is granted then Labour can vote for an election, knowing that no deal is off the table.

[TQR 14,398]

Just now, Kinnock said:

 

Think the election has to before January to be honest.

 

The Labour parties refusal for the election was based on there being no extension. 

If the extension is granted then Labour can vote for an election, knowing that no deal is off the table.

 

Could be.

 

It's going to be about 8 weeks between announcing an election and polling day. The extension is going to be until 31st January (if granted, of course). Let's say an election was voted for next week, that'd in theory make polling day Thursday 19th December. Any later than that, there's a window in mid-January where it could happen: 9th, 16th or 23rd, more than likely.

 

Labour now have no excuses really for voting down an election, as you pointed out. Problem is, even they know that under Corbyn there's every possibility they could come 3rd.

[Deathray 2,940]

1 minute ago, The Quim Reaper said:

 

Could be.

 

It's going to be about 8 weeks between announcing an election and polling day. The extension is going to be until 31st January (if granted, of course). Let's say an election was voted for next week, that'd in theory make polling day Thursday 19th December. Any later than that, there's a window in mid-January where it could happen: 9th, 16th or 23rd, more than likely.

  

Labour now have no excuses really for voting down an election, as you pointed out. Problem is, even they know that under Corbyn there's every possibility they could come 3rd.

 

Yup, there's a window between just before Christmas and the end of January that the election could be held.

 

The meaningful vote is going to be on Monday apparently and then the withdrawal agreement legislation goes through by the 31st October then the election can be called by the 1st week in November.