The Mad Hatter 1,092 Posted February 15, 2016 I just watched the debate on the Claire bryne show and I think the best candidate by far is Richard boyd Barret. What do you think and who do you think will win. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted February 16, 2016 Well I'm not going to pretend I know much of anything about Irish politics but I've just been researching it a little bit. Not seen anything about it really but the polls are in a little under 2 weeks (Friday 26th) and it looks like Fine Gael are hovering around, or more often just under, 30%, Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein swapping places around the 20% mark and Labour around 8-10%. Current government is Fine Gael-Labour coalition and that looks most both parties preferred option to continue in the next Dail. Question really comes down to whether or not Labour do well enough to maintain their coalition, as they seem to be suffering in a similar story to the Lib Dems in Britain. If they don't, I'm not sure what the mechanisms are like for coalition building. Fine Gael-Fianna Fail seems to be the favourite with the bookies but I believe Enda Kenny tonight said that he was ruling that out (though it's amazing how many things politicans rule out only to rule them back in a little later...) Fine Gael-Sinn Fein seems a non-starter as well. The best rough numbers of polls-seats I can find suggests somewhere in the region of 52 for Fine Gael, 30 for Fianna Fail, 28 for Sinn Fein and Labour 9. 79 is needed for a majority and, in that case, FG+L will be well short. There are 16 Independents in the outgoing Dail however, so that would make the majority needed around 71 or 72, but the Fine Gael-Labour coalition would still need an upturn to get to that. Guess as polling day gets closer, a lot will come down to whether people want Kenny to stay as Taoiseach or not. If they do, Fine Gael will probably pick up a couple of points/seats, if they don't, they may lose a couple. As for Mr Boyd Barrett, as far as I can tell, he is part of an election pact with another party who combined have 4 TDs and are currently polling at 3%. I'm not getting into the pros and cons of anybody's election positions/manifesto pledges because, as I said, I know next to nothing about Irish politics, but I will confidently predict that Mr Boyd Barrett will not be winning the election. This appears to have been the only TV debate his party have been invited to attend. So basically, it will be a coalition, but of whom seems to largely depend on the relative performances of Fine Gael and, more importantly, Labour on election night. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rockhopper penguin 2,265 Posted February 16, 2016 Having followed Irish politics a little my question is, does it actually matter? It's hardly Trump vs Saunders is it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
The Mad Hatter 1,092 Posted February 16, 2016 Having followed Irish politics a little my question is, does it actually matter? It's hardly Trump vs Saunders is it.shut up you yanks get to talk about byour politics so I get to talk about mine. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rockhopper penguin 2,265 Posted February 16, 2016 Having followed Irish politics a little my question is, does it actually matter? It's hardly Trump vs Saunders is it.shut up you yanks get to talk about byour politics so I get to talk about mine. No offence meant Kid. Talk away. My point is the difference between Fine Gael and Fianna Fael (the traditionally largest parties) is hardly a chasm. A bit like Wilson and Heath in the 70s during the last throes of the post-war consensus. I'm not a yank btw (but I may pull your leg every now and again). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,586 Posted February 17, 2016 I just watched the debate on the Claire bryne show and I think the best candidate by far is Richard boyd Barret. What do you think and who do you think will win. Are you having an election then? Are you old enough to vote? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Magere Hein 1,400 Posted February 17, 2016 I just watched the debate on the Claire bryne show and I think the best candidate by far is Richard boyd Barret. What do you think and who do you think will win. Are you having an election then? Are you old enough to vote? Q: Do you have elections in China? A: Yes, we have elections evely day. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chopped Liver 53 Posted February 20, 2016 smartvote.ie Enter Wexford as your constituency and tell me who you get. It matches up your answers to that of the politicians Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
themaninblack 2,112 Posted February 20, 2016 This thread title reminds me... Why is it whenever a General Election is held outside of Britain, in the media when they are reported the s is tagged on at the end. For example "the Croatian president has dissolved parliament so there'll be fresh elections". Yet here it's always referred to as the General Election (no "s")? Always puzzled me that... (the things that get me riled up at half-eleven on a Saturday night. There must be more to life than this?) 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cat O'Falk 3,290 Posted February 21, 2016 This thread title reminds me... Why is it whenever a General Election is held outside of Britain, in the media when they are reported the s is tagged on at the end. For example "the Croatian president has dissolved parliament so there'll be fresh elections". Yet here it's always referred to as the General Election (no "s")? Always puzzled me that... (the things that get me riled up at half-eleven on a Saturday night. There must be more to life than this?) Don't rile me on the bastardisation of the English language. The Croatian president has dissolved parliament so there'll be fresh elections an election. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
time 8,616 Posted February 23, 2016 This thread title reminds me... Why is it whenever a General Election is held outside of Britain, in the media when they are reported the s is tagged on at the end. For example "the Croatian president has dissolved parliament so there'll be fresh elections". Yet here it's always referred to as the General Election (no "s")? Always puzzled me that... (the things that get me riled up at half-eleven on a Saturday night. There must be more to life than this?) Context (maybe). Many MPs are elected, so there are elections all round the country, but only one parliament is elected so there's only one election. My two-penn'orth fwiw. (and I agree, this thread should refer to the Irish General Election). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Magere Hein 1,400 Posted February 24, 2016 (edited) This thread title reminds me... Why is it whenever a General Election is held outside of Britain, in the media when they are reported the s is tagged on at the end. For example "the Croatian president has dissolved parliament so there'll be fresh elections". Yet here it's always referred to as the General Election (no "s")? Always puzzled me that... (the things that get me riled up at half-eleven on a Saturday night. There must be more to life than this?) Context (maybe). Many MPs are elected, so there are elections all round the country, but only one parliament is elected so there's only one election.My two-penn'orth fwiw. (and I agree, this thread should refer to the Irish General Election). The Dutch word for election is verkiezing, plural verkiezingen. The election of the Dutch Tweede Kamer (the part of parliament that occasionally does something useful) is called Tweede Kamerverkiezingen, so I guess Dutch has the same problem. ETA: I changed this topic's title to "2016 Irish General Election" per official Dáil Éireann web page. Edited February 24, 2016 by Magere Hein Notification of title change Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,586 Posted February 24, 2016 I just watched the debate on the Claire bryne show and I think the best candidate by far is Richard boyd Barret. What do you think and who do you think will win. Are you having an election then? Are you old enough to vote? My comment may have been meant in jest but it was not until today that I saw any reference in the UK social media about the Irish Election which is disgraceful. If the vote was in France then half of the BBC news team would have been dispatched. A distinct lack of respect here for our closest European neighbors. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Droosy Posted February 24, 2016 I like the slogan: "Better with Sinn Féin" Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 3,741 Posted February 24, 2016 I just watched the debate on the Claire bryne show and I think the best candidate by far is Richard boyd Barret. What do you think and who do you think will win. Are you having an election then? Are you old enough to vote? My comment may have been meant in jest but it was not until today that I saw any reference in the UK social media about the Irish Election which is disgraceful. If the vote was in France then half of the BBC news team would have been dispatched. A distinct lack of respect here for our closest European neighbors. And a distinct lack of respect and an American flavour (flavor?) to that spelling of 'neighbours'. Yeah yeah i know. spelling lames, lower than the lowest form of wit. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted February 26, 2016 I just watched the debate on the Claire bryne show and I think the best candidate by far is Richard boyd Barret. What do you think and who do you think will win. Are you having an election then? Are you old enough to vote? My comment may have been meant in jest but it was not until today that I saw any reference in the UK social media about the Irish Election which is disgraceful. If the vote was in France then half of the BBC news team would have been dispatched. A distinct lack of respect here for our closest European neighbors. I agree. Read an article in one of the nationals today talking about Sinn Fein's diminishing chances (down from 20-odd% to 15% in the past 2 weeks) and noted that it's hurting their chances of being in government on both sides of the border. I'd forgotten there are, of course, Northern Ireland Assembly elections in the next 4 months too. If Sinn Fein were to end up in government on both sides of the border then the case for a united Ireland becomes somewhat stronger. Not that I'm suggesting even for a moment that this is a viable possibility in the next 10 years or anything, but it does seem odd that we apparently have zero interest in the political machinations of a country which shares an island with part of our own nation. It's baffling. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted February 26, 2016 Great to see a future American President carrying on that great tradition of taking a keen interest in Irish politics... http://s14.postimg.org/akrk9hl4h/Cc_Jr_WEHXIAACVom.jpg Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted February 26, 2016 Exit polls suggest ruling coalition will be unlikely to be able to continue with a majority. Deal-making ahead! http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/election-2016-irish-times-exit-poll-shows-coalition-well-short-of-overall-majority-1.2550489#.VtDYmWq7Adk.facebook Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,476 Posted February 27, 2016 I see the "useless gobshites" are likely to double their seats. If one week is a long time in politics, five years is certainly an aeon. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
rockhopper penguin 2,265 Posted February 27, 2016 Gerry Adams for President, now that would make Ireland interesting http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35674465 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted February 28, 2016 Gerry Adams for President, now that would make Ireland interesting http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-35674465 She can say what she wants, it ain't going to happen. The third party with the Taoiseach? With what mandate? Interesting set of results, although it seems ridiculously complicated to calculate who's won. Looks likely to be a messy aftermath. Fine Gael still the largest party but Labour far too weak for coalition. Fianna Fail say no deal with Sinn Fein, but even if they did it wouldn't be enough. There's been talk of a 'grand coalition' between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail but neither seems keen on that. Another election looks likely in the near future, best estimates I can see say no longer than 2 years could a new government last (whatever its make-up is). Ireland joins Spain in the 'messy general election aftermath' stakes... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
