The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[msc 18,490]

Jethro Tull beat Metallica to a grammy in 1989, that's genuinely one of the only things I know about them.

 

There was a very obvious pick which makes me queasy in the first DDP ever, clearly OK'd by the DDP's founder. I believe - could be wrong - it was OoO or TMIB who banned those sorts of picks, and a good decision too.

[Death Impends 8,010]

When you get down to it, there's two types of defensive picks these days. One is the "alright, they look 50/50 to die this year, but so many people are going to pick them leaving them off is a greater risk than putting them on." That's how I view Stefan Karl Stefansson, for instance. The other defensive picks are the famous for being ills. Ideally, I don't want to pick any of these people, and was personally hoping there would've been some sort of incentive against picking them, but we're in the arms race era of deadpooling where going long on these people risks a 10th place finish at best. And I do want to stand a chance of outright winning. Whereas on the other hand, I picked King Michael, even though he was 95 and I viewed his Drop 40 chances as a gamble (that landed in my favor, fortunately), largely because he was a damn fascinating name. The last surviving adult World War II head of state, whose actions in realigning Romania to the Allies arguably hastened the war's end by 6 months and earned him the USSR's highest military honor, of which he's now the only living recipient. The cancer mums were never exactly going to influence the outcome of World War II, but most of the famous-in-their-own-right picks have their interesting stories and trivia. Cancer mums really don't.

[Toast 16,165]

 

There was a very obvious pick which makes me queasy in the first DDP

 

Refreshing my memory on that, I wonder if the anonymous donor was George Michael.

[gcreptile 10,987]

Death Impends' "What does everyone need to hope for?" analysis led me to calculate the "20 hits" scenario for all the teams I calculated (an easy formula in my excel file, took about 30 minutes). All unique and Drop 40 bonusses included

 

Assumptions:

- People die before they fall into the next age bracket (especially Peter Skellern... but there's one case where I decided against it because he/she has his/her birthday very soon, but I forgot who it was!)

- No unnatural deaths for Paul Briggs and Anna Holmlund as their injuries happened last year.

(- Edit: Also, no unnatural deaths for Paul Gascoigne and Kenny Sansom, I rather assume organ failure or something like that.)

- Unnatural deaths bonusses for al-Baghdadi, Valeri Spiridonov and Marieke Vervoort (who wants to commit suicide if the pain becomes too much).

 

Then the top thirteen as above look like this:

1. The Love Boat (220)

2. The Living End (219)

3-4. Pan Breed (218)

3-4. A Day in the Death (218)

5-6. New Years and Drinks All Night (216)

5-6. To Kill a Gabor Sister (216)

7-8. Thomas Jefferson Survives (214)

7-8. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (214)

9. Garn2 (206)

10. Still Life (205)

11. Going Underground (204)

12. droller coaster (198)

13. Here's who you could have won (197)

 

For me, the differences between calculated and maximum points shows that The Living End has the riskiest team of all (of these). The top 8 are also ridiculously close. Basically all within a one-hit-difference. Then there is a gap to the second group. I'm too lazy to look right now, but I guess that the teams in the second group are those without the cancer mums.

 

By the way, several teams surpass the top score of The Love Boat. For one, it's impossible to top Spade's theme team, of 20 unique 18-year olds, who, we assume, all die an unnatural death if they die, so that's the maximum possible score of 378 points. Shameless has 242 maximum points. Dead as a Doornail has 221 pts, by the way. A very risky team with Pete Frates (ALS ice bucket challenge guy) as joker, for example, still getting 123,13pts in my calculation - so if one of their gambles succeeds, this team gains quite a bit.

[Joey Russ 7,235]

I know that it will be nowhere near the top, but what do you calculate Advent Avalanche to get around? Just wondering.

[gcreptile 10,987]

Update!

 

The following changes: Wayne Barrett is now dead and has received a QO, same with Paul Briggs. Their expected scores increase, especially Barrett's score. I should note that I went "conservative" on those names new to me. Since I hadn't followed their cases before the DDP, I knew nothing about Briggs and Barrett, so I didn't give them a 100% of dying even though it was probably warranted - at least in Briggs' case.

Another change: Mark Sims' probability of dying in 2017 is now at 100%, but his obitability dropped from 70% to 50%, so a slight decrease for almost everyone, and a huge boost to Death Impends - with DDT also on the rise, because he had Briggs, but not Sims:

 

1. The Love Boat (143,21) - could use a hit, but a QO for Sims will but DQSP at the top

2. Thomas Jefferson Survives (141,91)

3. A Day in the Death (141,1)

4. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (139,27)

5. The Living End (135,53)

6. Pan Breed (134,64)

7. To Kill a Gabor Sister (134,61)

8. Garn2 (133,1)

9. New Years and Drinks All Night (132,75)

10. Golden Slumbers (132,01)

11. droller coaster (131,38)

12. I'm sorry for your trouble (130,15)

13. Still Life (129,7)

[Joey Russ 7,235]

I say Sims has more than a 50% chance to obit tbh. Oh well. It was nice being in the top 2 while it lasted (predicted score).

[gcreptile 10,987]

A quick update now that Mark Sims has obited and Tracy McGiffin is also dead - quite the boost for those with Sims as joker. RadGuy has the double benefit of both Joker-Sims and McGiffin. DQSP overtakes The Love Boat by a tiny amount in spite of The Love Boat scoring twice (In 2016, I was slightly surer of Tracy McGiffin being a hit than of Mark Sims obiting, so the Sims boost is bigger than the McGiffin boost.).

 

1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (151,27)

2. The Love Boat (150,92)

3. A Day In the Death (148,81)

4. To Kill a Gabor Sister (148,32)

5. Thomas Jefferson Survives (147,91)

6. Golden Slumbers (145,72)

7. Pan Breed (142,35)

8. New Years and Drinks All Night (138,75)

9. Still Life (137,41)

10. droller coaster (137,38)

11. The Living End (135,53)

12. Garn2 (134,81)

13. Dead Ends (134,4375)

 

The people who didn't pick Sims fall back, especially The Living End and Toast, whose place is now occupied by new entry Dead Ends - a very solid team that just slightly went for quantity above quality by picking Yisrael Kristal and Emma Morano.

Those with their joker still alive can also still expect a bit of a bounce. I repeat that I like to estimate conservatively, so I've hardly assigned 100% (or 0%) probabilities to anything. As an example, Leah Bracknell currently sits at 9,60 expected points because I assigned her a probability of dying of "only" 80%. If she dies, it increases to 12pts, so everyone with her as a joker gets 2+2,40 pts =4,80pts. A more extreme example is al-Baghdadi who I have at 7,08pts. But if he gets killed, he's worth 13pts, so a bonus of 2x6=12 pts for those who picked him as joker.

[YoungWillz 21,081]

Not sure what all of this means, but probably not rating my chances.

 

To be fair, I didn't rate my chances either...

[Joey Russ 7,235]

Still in the top 3, though once Magill dies, I'm going to fall back. But most of my gambles will come later on anyways, so nothing to worry about yet.

[gcreptile 10,987]

Not sure what all of this means, but probably not rating my chances.

 

To be fair, I didn't rate my chances either...

Well, there's a lot of my own opinion in it anyway. Still, statistically, cancer is much more fatal than old age - within a timespan of 12 months. On the other hand, if you watch people carefully, you might be able to beat the statistics.

[gcreptile 10,987]

Still in the top 3, though once Magill dies, I'm going to fall back. But most of my gambles will come later on anyways, so nothing to worry about yet.

Magill wasn't picked very often, and you have Suisala instead. If I may be so bold, I would say that you have a couple of punts that may not be successful, especially Aspin and Brady. Davies is also doing well, I hear? But then, nobody ever got 20 hits, and it's very, very unlikely (but not impossible) that someone gets them this time.

[Joey Russ 7,235]

 

Still in the top 3, though once Magill dies, I'm going to fall back. But most of my gambles will come later on anyways, so nothing to worry about yet.

 

Magill wasn't picked very often, and you have Suisala instead. If I may be so bold, I would say that you have a couple of punts that may not be successful, especially Aspin and Brady. Davies is also doing well, I hear? But then, nobody ever got 20 hits, and it's very, very unlikely (but not impossible) that someone gets them this time.

And that's the thing when you take a gambit. They're not always going to be successful. You just got to hope it does well. I definitely agree with Aspin. I don't know why I picked him to be honest, when Van Zandvliet or Bracknell could've easily taken his place. Just kind of got to hope for the Mirror, or nothing, so he's probably the worst mistake on my team. Brady, as I said a couple of times, was kind of a gut feeling. He could be lying, or telling the truth, but criminals don't last forever, so it could be his year. I should've done more research on Davies, but his cancer is incurable, and, as I seen with other cancer cases, cancer often returns with a vengeance. As Yogi Berra said, it ain't over till it's over...

[msc 18,490]

It's far too early in the year to call a pick a mistake. I second guessed 7 of my eventual hits at points during 2016! Whereas one of my "locks" only got an obit today.

[Death Impends 8,010]

We're still so early in the year, one of my picks could declare remission tomorrow and I still wouldn't consider them a full write off, since there's so much time left in the year for a possible recurrence. Think Bonnie Brown last year.

[msc 18,490]

We're still so early in the year, one of my picks could declare remission tomorrow and I still wouldn't consider them a full write off, since there's so much time left in the year for a possible recurrence. Think Bonnie Brown last year.

 

Bonnie Brown was one of those I was thinking about.

 

Most of them I became aware of before they died. The exception was LaTourette, who went from "recovering from Whipple nicely" to "dead" within 2 months with very little warning in between!

[Joey Russ 7,235]

Exactly what I was thinking. I haven't written a name 100% off yet, because it's early on. I'm thinking of Caslavka or Ford, whose cancer turned for the worse later in the year.

[Death Impends 8,010]

Exactly what I was thinking. I haven't written a name 100% off yet, because it's early on. I'm thinking of Caslavka or Ford, whose cancer turned for the worse later in the year.

 

Ah, ol Rob Ford. Went from "feels a wasted pick" to "may well die after all" to "sure thing" to "dead"... in the span of a month!

[msc 18,490]

Me on Vera Caslavska, 2016:

 

January: Oh fuck, DDT has her!

 

Feb: Nah, she had that op.

 

April: Doing well. See? Knew it was a good decision.

 

July: Oh fuck.

 

August: fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck fuck

 

September: Oh well, these things happen.

[gcreptile 10,987]

I would agree that Rick Davies may well turn out to be a good pick. About Ian Brady: He said the same "I'm terminally ill" stuff 2015 already. Personally, I don't believe him, but if there is a chance that he speaks the truth, he's worth a lot of expected points, with him being in the Drop 40. About Alan Aspin, he probably has to die quickly to obit. Though true, you never know... I would never have believed that the Lisa Brown story gets picked up by the Daily Mail again, though still, they haven't reported her death... yet. And someone might ...again... pick up Alan Aspin's story. But if I think about the hit/list-of-the-lost-ratio of Shameless, I think it's relatively unlikely.

[drol 12,015]

I was wrong not picking Tracy McGiffin, but I sincerely did not know who the fuck she was. Next year I'll be more careful in excluding some picks...

[gcreptile 10,987]

Update:

 

John Wetton has died, and as I said in another thread, I already recognized that it was a mistake that I didn't pick him, but he was simply not on my mind - basically, a case of "He won't make the Drop 40" anyway, so disregard him.." Obviously a huge mistake, and a reason why the average score at the end of the year may surpass my initial calculation by quite a bit. (I'd say by about 5 pts for those who picked him). While those who didn't pick Wetton still have a chance to win (of course), it has just become a little more unlikely.

And as I already mentioned, the other reason why the average score may be higher than my initial calculation is the increased skill of the players and the skillful picking that created this Drop 40. This latter point is a first result for me to keep in mind for the next year. But not picking Wetton was a singular mistake, I couldn't even give him an especially high chance of dying, because he "only" had a sepsis and looked bad, but as far as I know, nothing terminal was known - though one might have guessed! (ANd quite a few people did...)

 

Mary Tyler Moore and John Hurt have also died, but as far as I am aware, they did not impact the top 15 scoreboard. I'm currently not sure if Paul McGill's death changes the score, but his obitability has dropped by half. I will never reduce the chance of obiting to zero, but eventually, it will drop to 5%, if an obit doesn't show up. In that case Paul McGill is worth only 0,40 expected pts (8*0,05).

 

Another update: As I previously announced, I decreased the obit chances of a couple of cancer celebrities by a bit (10-20%). From my experience with Shameless, it gets increasingly harder for a terminally ill person to obit, if they don't die too soon. They need to keep in the public eye, by blogging or by "raising awareness"/fundraising for others (not just on their own JustGiving page).

As such, there are small score decreases for those who picked Alan Aspin (more a criminal terminally ill-fame person, than a terminally ill famous criminal - e.g. Rena Salmon or Catherine Nevin), Ben Suisala, Jay Clark, Sara Hankins, Vincent Lambert and tons of Shameless picks. Not impacted for now are Lisa Magill (with her blog) and Pete Frates (ALS challenge guy).

 

 

 

The scoreboard:

1. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (154,72)

2. The Love Boat (150,92)

3. Golden Slumbers (150,12)

4. A Day in the Death (148,51)

5. Thomas Jefferson Survives (147,91)

6. To Kill A Gabor Sister (146,74)

7. Still Life (141,81)

8. Droller Coaster (141,78)

9. I will not die, it's the world that will end (140,43)

10. Pan Breed (139,59)

11. The Living End (139,33)

12. Garn2 (139,21)

13. New Years and Drinks all Night (138,75)

14. Dead Ends (138,8375)

15. I'm sorry for your trouble (134,55)

 

A new entry "I will not die, it's the world that will end" at place 9. TJS didn't have Wetton (surprising to me). DQSP pulls ahead in spite of a small point reduction for Jay Clark, because he picked Wetton while I didn't.

[Joey Russ 7,235]

DDT did have Wetton. I can remember seeing him on his squad when he announced his team.

[gcreptile 10,987]

DDT did have Wetton. I can remember seeing him on his squad when he announced his team.

Oh, correct! And he didn't drop a place either. Hmm, I thought he was ranked higher before. (Edit: Ah, he dropped because he didn't have Sims.)

[Death Impends 8,010]

TJS also didn't have Wetton (surprising to me)

 

Yeah, I was in the same boat as you in thinking "well, he's a solid pick but I can't see him making the Drop 40, and I'm having trouble finding room for him..." Early days, though, so I still think I got a fighting chance.

 

It's a lesson for me to always remember the "Christodoulos rule" I spotted when compiling the retrospective Drop 40s - ie, if a name is championed nonstop on the forums, as Wetton was by Weebl, assume they have a chance of making the cut.