The Next Leader of the Opposition

[TQR 14,384]

Excuse another politics-based topic, and also excuse the disgraceful UK-centric nature of it, but the Labour leadership election will be commencing early doors next year, arguably the most important one for a long time given the enormity of the seat deficit they've got to recover in 5 years or less. Plus we've got a poll for some kind of leader of something in Americaland so why shouldn't we have this?

 

Who will it be? Who should it be? Those are likely two very different things. Vote who you reckon it will be, then bitch and moan about why it shouldn't be them here.

 

I reckon it'll be Keir. I'd rather it was than the other favourite, Rebecca Wrong-Daily.

[msc 18,436]

If thats the options available, it's got to be Sir Keir.

[Deathray 2,940]

18 minutes ago, msc said:

If thats the options available, it's got to be Sir Keir.

 

An Oxford educated London based remainer?

 

Sounds like exactly the kind of person who'll win back Leave voting northern Blyth Valley.  

 

Dan Jarvis -  ex-military so no national security concerns, more centrist so not as much financial distrust to overcome.

 

EDIT: should have read the OP - it will be Rebecca Long-Bailey because the 485,000 people who make up Labour's membership are suicidal nutters.

[Philip 121]

If they have any sense it should be jess phillips

[TQR 14,384]

Dan Jarvis would be a great choice. His central stance is what we need; I don't know enough about him to make the most detailed judgement but he seems like he's got some common sense, too. He'd be the Lib Dems' worst nightmare, and hopefully would do well at holding Boris' shower of cunts to account.

 

Sir Keir has already proven he can in PMQs. He's not got a bad public rep, and I genuinely think his ardent remain stance would probably attract around as many people as it'd put off (in total, anyway; the North might not be happy still though). Also good choice.

 

Jess Phillips at least makes a modicum of sense. Strong woman, not too far left, connects with the public, would eviscerate Johnson at the first whiff of bullshit. 

 

You've also got David Lammy; very intelligent, good at making and arguing a point, lefty but not quite at McDonnell levels, maybe needs a bit more of a profile outside of London. Also not likely to stand yet; maybe after Labour's next election loss. Emily Thornberry can hold her own too, and as a politician she's respectable. But not respected; she has a very condescending image that won't win over voters. Yvette Cooper has signalled she wants to run, because of course she did so well last time she ran for leadership. Safe-ish pair of hands, but it's not going to happen is it? And any of the others would be utterly disastrous and would kill Labour off completely.

 

But when it comes to likelihood, it's between Keir and 'Becca.

[maryportfuncity 10,639]

Starmer storming the vote thus far (though I won't trust anything until the official exit poll appears)

 

An observation - the slaughter on Thursday was approaching as bad as Major's Conservatives suffered in 1997 and it took them two useless leaders before they found one who pulled them back into contention and even he lost his one and only election.

 

Labour could well be in for that level of long dark night of the soul IMHO

[Deathray 2,940]

25 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

Starmer storming the vote thus far (though I won't trust anything until the official exit poll appears)

 

An observation - the slaughter on Thursday was approaching as bad as Major's Conservatives suffered in 1997 and it took them two useless leaders before they found one who pulled them back into contention and even he lost his one and only election.

  

Labour could well be in for that level of long dark night of the soul IMHO

 

There's a fairly clear pattern in the post war era for both parties hitting a low point of under 210 seats. It took Labour 4 elections go from oblivion to a landslide. It took the Tories 7 elections from 1997 and 4 from 1945. Get it right and Labour could be back within a decade. Part of the reason for recent political problems has been the Tories complete failure to rebuild by 2010.

 

Conservatives

1945 - 197

1950 - 298

1951 - 321 (of 630)

1955 - 345 (of 630)

 

Labour 

1983 - 209 seats

1987 - 229 seats

1992 - 271 seats

1997 - 418 seats

 

 

Conservatives

1997 - 165

2001 - 166

2005 - 198

2010 - 306

2015 - 330

2017 - 317

2019 - 365

[Sean 6,311]

Angela Rayner .Northern not too far left female new generation single teenage mum in the 90s.Served in Corbyns shadow cabinet so can't be called a traitor by Momentum 

 

Jarvis and Long Bailey I reckon stand a chance.

 

Starmer and Thornberry would keep the Tories in power for another decade at least.

[the_engineer 1,415]

Lisa Nandy she fancies it aswell.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-lisa-nandy-rebecca-longbailey-corbyn-election-results-a9247486.html

[TQR 14,384]

Emily Thornberry’s getting off to a flyer by seeking legal action against ex-colleague Caroline Flint. 

[Deathray 2,940]

So there's a max of 9 candidates.

 

Will be interesting to see if factions united or we get 9 candidates.

 

If factions united we'll get 5 candidates

 

Blue Labour

Blairite

Soft Left

Momentum

Commies (won't make it onto Ballot Paper)

[Grim Up North 3,725]

Slightly off topic (but relevant because it perhaps shapes the policy decisions needed going forward)

 

Has anyone seen any information where if all the Brexit Party votes in each constituency were given to the Labour party what the results would have been across the country.

I know this isn't perfect but would be interested to know.

 

I still think despite all the Corbyn hate supposedly out there on the doorsteps that if Labour had voted through Brexit prior to the election then they would have been very close to winning.

[TQR 14,384]

21 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

Slightly off topic (but relevant because it perhaps shapes the policy decisions needed going forward)

 

Has anyone seen any information where if all the Brexit Party votes in each constituency were given to the Labour party what the results would have been across the country.

I know this isn't perfect but would be interested to know.

 

I still think despite all the Corbyn hate supposedly out there on the doorsteps that if Labour had voted through Brexit prior to the election then they would have been very close to winning.

Would be interesting to know yeah, but I can’t help but think that the support he’d have lost backing Brexit would be similar to the amount he lost by not backing it, though obviously this support wouldn’t probably have gone to the Tories and it mightn’t have been so North-centric. 

[Deathray 2,940]

37 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

Slightly off topic (but relevant because it perhaps shapes the policy decisions needed going forward)

 

Has anyone seen any information where if all the Brexit Party votes in each constituency were given to the Labour party what the results would have been across the country.

I know this isn't perfect but would be interested to know.

 

I still think despite all the Corbyn hate supposedly out there on the doorsteps that if Labour had voted through Brexit prior to the election then they would have been very close to winning.

 

We'd have lost loads of votes to the Lib Dems down south 

[maryportfuncity 10,639]

Senior figures back Mrs Merton Rebecca Long Bailey - that's her - metaphorically - fucked, then

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/15/labour-leadership-race-begins-as-senior-figures-back-rebecca-long-bailey?CMP=share_btn_fb&fbclid=IwAR2wQdrxUjJDdL5cSe8rvMCyGMbllQMXbSC23KOmkaMB8gFnSW9vFBl6IKA

[maryportfuncity 10,639]

Oh aye, and if Kinnock is looking in - Stephen's still on 0%

 

Have a word with the lad, eh? Bit of a late developer IMHO

[Grim Up North 3,725]

There’s more choices to be Labour leader on this poll than the Lib Dens have MPs!

[maryportfuncity 10,639]

3 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

There’s more choices to be Labour leader on this poll than the Lib Dens have MPs!

 

 

Saw a good meme on Saturday with Jo Swinson in the shop window from Bagpuss along with all the other useless and broken things nobody seems to want

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

2 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Saw a good meme on Saturday with Jo Swinson in the shop window from Bagpuss along with all the other useless and broken things nobody seems to want

 

2 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Saw a good meme on Saturday with Jo Swinson in the shop window from Bagpuss along with all the other useless and broken things nobody seems to want

Just in case anyone passed  by, saw her and elevated her to the House of Lords.

[Grim Up North 3,725]

9 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Saw a good meme on Saturday with Jo Swinson in the shop window from Bagpuss along with all the other useless and broken things nobody seems to want

 

Surely Corbyn was in the background as Professor Yaffle?

[GraveDanger 22]

I voted for Long-Bailey

[Deathray 2,940]

Here we go then.

 

Unofficially Confirmed Leadership Candidates

Lisa Nandy

Rebecca Long-Bailey

Clive Lewis

 

Unofficially Confirmed Deputy Leadership Candidates

Angela Rayner

[Hosni Mubarak 48]

Why is there no arabic choices, racist list. 

 

Only the mighty allah can lead the labour party from this mess. 

[TQR 14,384]

So it looks increasingly likely that Rebecca Wrong-Daily and Angela Rayner running together on a ‘dream ticket’, with Rayner as Deputy.

 

Sounds more like a fucking nightmare to me.

 

Also poor old Richard Burgon, being left hanging by Wrong-Daily with his little flaccid dick hanging out with a ‘vote Rebecca’ sticker on it.

[Deathray 2,940]

5 hours ago, The Quim Reaper said:

So it looks increasingly likely that Rebecca Wrong-Daily and Angela Rayner running together on a ‘dream ticket’, with Rayner as Deputy.

 

Sounds more like a fucking nightmare to me.

 

Also poor old Richard Burgon, being left hanging by Wrong-Daily with his little flaccid dick hanging out with a ‘vote Rebecca’ sticker on it.

 

Calling it now:

 

- Rayner wins Deputy

- Long-Bailey loses leadership to Starmer/Jarvis