Thoughts On The 2022 List

[msc 18,436]

7 minutes ago, Deathtreat23 said:

Well Betty White did pass away in the dying hours of 2021 on New Years Eve so that last comment is entirely possible! 

 

Absolutely. It's an old DL staple, going back a decade or so ago for one random example, everyone expected Bernie Nolan to die any day, when suddenly "centenarian nailed on" DL regular Anna Wing died in her sleep. 

 

Mind you, there's also Zsa Zsa, who got the last rites, and then proceeded to outlive about 70 DL hits...

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

Updated the graphic for the seventh hit this year

 

 

Every year shown has at least two deaths from this point of the year onward

 

We might just scrape double figures if we have a busy final third

[msc 18,436]

On 01/09/2022 at 10:25, msc said:

Oh very well, the annual September watch list. 

 

1. Henry Kissinger  - looked very frail on Newsnight the other night.

2. Angela Lansbury - according to the fan mail community, who are as good at stalking as TMZ, now in declined health

3. Bob Barker - Was in and out of hospital due to age related illnesses before pandemic. How is he still alive?

4. Alan Greenspan - Dull pick, but Reptile is convinced he's dying.

5. Nigel Starmer-Smith - Looked a corpse in December. Still breathing, somehow.

6. Jimmy Carter - Long surpassed the usual expiry date for Presidents, and beaten up the Reaper several times now. Borrowed time, or sign of immortality?

7. Leslie Philips - Frail old man though possible not as frail as some on the list, given his longevity!

8. Desmond Morris - Oldest newcomer on the list, a fatal condition in the last decade!

9. Ted Kaczyinski - Surely destined to live and give me nightmares on TCD23, but also allegedly has terminal cancer

10. James Whale - Seems far too healthy for terminal cancer, but so did Bill Turnbull a few months ago.

11. Jacques Delors - Missed his big bash last year, meant to be very frail.

12. Denis Law - An outlier given age and recency of diagnosis, but he looked like shit in his last TV appearance so a quick downturn would not surprise.

13. Burt Bacharach - Another incredible frail old person.

14. Bill Treacher - Already wheelchair bound/retired/frail, lost a number of friends this year and didn't seem to make any public comments, which is odd.

15. Norman Tebbit - Ulitzer said he looked like shit and probably wouldn't see 2023. 

16. Pele - Is selling near death like he sold SPAM.

17. Douglas Hurd - Has spent the last decade being so frail and unwell, its a surprise he's still going

18. Marianne Faithful - COPD, fucked lungs, post-covid, needs oxygen and in nursing home. Not long left.

19. Linda Ronstadt - I picked Robbie Rensenbrink in the DDP because 7 years was the limit for PSP. Ronstadt is now in Year 9. 

20. Shane MacGowan - It's Shane MacGowan

 

If we get more hits in the last 4 months of the year, I suspect they''ll come from this shortlist. Potential, yes, but a large number of 50/50s at best too. Now watch this lot all celebrate Hogmanay, while Harry Belafonte dies in his sleep over the weekend!

 

12 days later, 2 hits later, neither on this shortlist! I'm good at this!

 

Either one massive jinx, or @Gooseberry Crumble bowel movements in action. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

 

Here is the Graph updated for Goddard

 

I said we might scrape double figures if we had a busy final third.

 

Looking like we might!

[msc 18,436]

8 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Here is the Graph updated for Goddard

 

I said we might scrape double figures if we had a busy final third.

 

Looking like we might!

 

Nothing for 5 months, then 4 hits in a fortnight. The DL moves in mysterious ways.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

59 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Nothing for 5 months, then 4 hits in a fortnight. The DL moves in mysterious ways.

It pays to keep the faith!

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

2 hours ago, msc said:

 

12 days later, 2 hits later, neither on this shortlist! I'm good at this!

 

Either one massive jinx, or @Gooseberry Crumble bowel movements in action. 

I actually have started back on the bran flakes in the past fortnight  strangely enough  after being more of a Weetaflakes guy for many months!!

[gcreptile 10,963]

Dick Van Dyke - no, still far too early

Henry Kissinger - getting weaker, but will be fighting death for each single day, I think he's going for the 100th birthday, already drooling for those "a century with Henry" interviews, but dies shortly after

Angela Lansbury - are the rumours true? Still feels a little vague, and well, many 96 year old people are not in good health.

Bob Barker - kind of think he's overdue

Alan Greenspan - since he's not been on camera lately, I think he's going down. Kissinger is a similar case by the way - wanting to die after they're unable to play their public role

Nigel Starmer-Smith - reasonably good bet, still

Loretta Lynn - apparently stable, and probably too high on the list as the stroke didn't turn out to be perpetually limiting her

The Carters - I agree, they'll go together, but if neither of them goes, they just keep on living?

Tony Bennett - is he declining physically as fast as mentally? I haven't seen the proof yet.

Dick Cheney - no particular reason for him to be on the list

Harry Belafonte - still seems like a bad pick

Mel Brooks - still seems like a bad pick

Sir Bobby Charlton - like Nigel Starmer-Smith, a reasonable pick. I think one of those two will die this year, still.

David Attenborough - yes, you don't want to miss him, but he's not a good pick, on paper

Akihito - I think the committee just likes monarchs, or we have a "sunk cost fallacy" going on here

Leslie Philiips - well...

Sandy Gall - had a book out recently, away from TV apparently doesn't mean in ill health

Desmond Morris - no idea

Ted Kaczinski - good pick on the outset, we only knew in spring that he's a better pick for 2023

Jean-Marie Le Pen - doing too well

James Whale - seems to have a very manageable cancer

Cleo Laine - no idea

Jerry Lee Lewis - annoyingly stable

Jacques Delors - would usually be one of these random age-based hits for the list, could still happen

Denis Law - too early

Prunella Scales - her dementia doesn't seem to affect her physically, so she's basically also "only" an age based pick

Burt Bacharach - apparently frail? But as long as there's no "real" illness...

Stanley Baxter - no idea, but you seem to think it may be time for him to bow out

Noam Chomsky - looking ghastly, but then, not much different from Kissinger. One has to wait until he's gone from public media

Bill Treacher - no idea, seems a wasted pick?

.....

 

Well that's it for now...

I think we're good for about 3-4 more hits.

 

[arghton 6,695]

1 hour ago, gcreptile said:

Henry Kissinger - getting weaker, but will be fighting death for each single day, I think he's going for the 100th birthday, already drooling for those "a century with Henry" interviews, but dies shortly after

 

Bob Barker - kind of think he's overdue

 

Loretta Lynn - apparently stable, and probably too high on the list as the stroke didn't turn out to be perpetually limiting her

 

Dick Cheney - no particular reason for him to be on the list

Harry Belafonte - still seems like a bad pick

 

Akihito - I think the committee just likes monarchs, or we have a "sunk cost fallacy" going on here

 

Ted Kaczinski - good pick on the outset, we only knew in spring that he's a better pick for 2023

 

Jerry Lee Lewis - annoyingly stable

 

Burt Bacharach - apparently frail? But as long as there's no "real" illness...

 

Bill Treacher - no idea, seems a wasted pick?

Some opinions 

 

Kissinger and Barker are, in my opinion, some of the most overdue notable people currently living. Kissinger is an obese nonagenarian with a history of heart problems (and to be fair he's looked like shit in interviews for the last half a decade) and Barker has had cancers, strokes, falls. 

 

Loretta Lynn is only 90 and seems to have been doing fine for the last four years. In a way similar to Bacharach who was reported "frail" years ago but seems to be doing fine. Belafonte looked really frail two years ago, the video was posted in his thread, but I don't know if he's ill.

 

Cheney has a long health history, no way he gets to 90 but seems pretty stable currently.

Akihito, well, there are better picks. I would be suprised if he reached 95.

Kaczynski - Do we know how ill he is? He has said in a letter that he suffers from a form of cancer that isn't very deadly, and he's at a prison hospital. I wonder if there's a chance the whole thing could turn out to have been BS.

 

Jerry Lee Lewis probably suffered some unknown ailment around December/January, now more active. Still, he's a very frail hellraiser who survived a severe stroke a few years ago, my bet is that he'll die at 87. 

Bill Treacher has been wheelchairbound with ataxia for atleast 7 years. 

[RadGuy 1,614]

So, uh... safe to say we're not in a drought anymore, right?

[WEP 888]

15 minutes ago, RadGuy said:

So, uh... safe to say we're not in a drought anymore, right?

Well, it normally rains in autumn, or?

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

17 minutes ago, RadGuy said:

So, uh... safe to say we're not in a drought anymore, right?

More like flood territory 

[Deathtreat23 189]

So after the drought from April to the end of August, that's half of this year's hits in the space of a fortnight, things are picking up after all

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

Updated graph for Loretta Lynn

 

In 2003 there were no hits later than this date

[msc 18,436]

6 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

In 2003 there were no hits later than this date

 

Aye, and in every year since 2003, there has been!

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

9 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Updated graph for Loretta Lynn

 

In 2003 there were no hits later than this date

I am confident there will be numerous more 'hits'this year  ..  

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

5 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

I am confident there will be numerous more 'hits'this year  ..  

 

I am going to say 12 Hits total

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

3 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

I am going to say 12 Hits total

As the play your cards right audience often chanted. .Higher Higher!

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

2 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

As the play your cards right audience often chanted. .Higher Higher!

 

The most we have had post this point in the year is 6.

 

Do you think it will be above that?

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

1 minute ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

The most we have had post this point in the year is 6.

 

Do you think it will be above that?

Yes

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

2 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Yes

 

Looking at the remaining names on the list there are about 8 I think would not be unreasonable

 

But 17 is a very good year and we had a long drought in the middle of it.

 

There are only 88 days left for you to get them in

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,337]

6 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Looking at the remaining names on the list there are about 8 I think would not be unreasonable

 

But 17 is a very good year and we had a long drought in the middle of it.

 

There are only 88 days left for you to get them in

Alan Greenspan,  Leslie Phillips,  Angela Lansbury,  Bob Barker, Cleo Laine, Marianne Faithfull,  Harry Belafonte,  Jacques Delors, Stanley Baxter and Jerry Lee Lewis all seem like good and reasonable shouts this year.. 

 

I just have a vibe and intuition I have that the rest of the year will be busy.

It might just be that this gut feelings a result of switching to ASDA own brand Bran Flakes  and they to my surprise haven't skimped on the fibre and ruffage....

[Bibliogryphon 9,569]

6 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Alan Greenspan,  Leslie Phillips,  Angela Lansbury,  Bob Barker, Cleo Laine, Marianne Faithfull,  Harry Belafonte,  Jacques Delors, Stanley Baxter and Jerry Lee Lewis all seem like good and reasonable shouts this year.. 

 

I just have a vibe and intuition I have that the rest of the year will be busy.

It might just be that this gut feelings a result of switching to ASDA own brand Bran Flakes  and they to my surprise haven't skimped on the fibre and ruffage....

 

My eight have an overlap with yours but not completely

 

Lansbury, Barker, Starmer-Smith, Baxter, Phillps, Pele, Hurd and one of the Carters but not both

[MortalCaso 1,624]

I think we have a range of 3 to 5 left. 

 

There has been a few obvious selections that have made it quite far, they won't all make years end. 

[Summer in Transylvania 2,172]

If we're going to start speculating, I would say perhaps Jimmy Carter, Milan Kundera, Pelé, Douglas Hurd, one "surprise" death (one that could die any time between now and the next five years without us really getting any major clues as to when until it happens), Nigel Starmer-Smith, and Jacques Delors.