Guess the date of the next UK General Election Sweepstake!

[dodrade 94]

20 hours ago, Father Brown said:

Parliament breaks for the Summer on July 23rd, which is during the school holidays so I doubt it’ll happen then.

 

Late June is still the second half of the year! 

The second half of the year begins in July.

[Father Brown 209]

3 hours ago, dodrade said:

The second half of the year begins in July.

 
Close enough! 
Doubt anyone will be too pleased to spend the summer holidays campaigning whatever the date is. 

[Sod's Law 445]

The Independent now reports Thursday 10th October as the most likely date, though a lot of that would depend on how many letters of no confidence in Sunak come flying in after a dire set of results for the Tories in the May elections. He's achieved the impossible and somehow become even less popular than Truss (especially with his own party) despite making a smaller dent in British politics in one and a half years with his 'do nothing and let things break' style of leadership than she managed in one and a half weeks of 'move fast and break things'. 

[TQR 14,387]

Just a reminder that, if the Tories want to wait it out, there’s no escaping this:

 

On 06/01/2024 at 19:31, TQR said:

Lady Hallett's independent Covid inquiry is to issue a detailed report of the govt's woeful handling of the pandemic before the summer.

 

[YoungWillz 21,037]

25 minutes ago, TQR said:

Just a reminder that, if the Tories want to wait it out, there’s no escaping this:

 

 

I understand Lady Hallett is under consideration for deportation to Rwanda and will be branded an extremist if the report is a bad one for the Government. 

[Sly Ronnie 879]

On 14/10/2023 at 11:49, TQR said:

Let's get a list going:

 

2 May 24: RoverAndOut

9 May 24: Dying Probably

16 May 24: BuffaloPhil

23 May 24: Paul Bearer

6 Jun 24: Redrumours

13 Jun 24: DCI Frank Burnside

4 Jul 24: Sir Creep

5 Sep 24: Bentrovato

12 Sep 24: ladyfiona

10 Oct 24: Bibliogryphon

17 Oct 24: Sly Ronnie

24 Oct 24: Diego

31 Oct 24: msc

7 Nov 24: TQR

14 Nov 24: Great Uncle Bulgaria

21 Nov 24: lilham

28 Nov 24: Root Inspector

12 Dec 24: Clorox Bleachman

19 Dec 24: The Old Crem

28 Jan 25: Toast

 

The story so far: I'm ruling out the May dates, even 6th June is probably a squeeze if Sunak decides to call after the local elections.

[Paul Bearer 6,101]

34 minutes ago, Sly Ronnie said:

 

The story so far: I'm ruling out the May dates, even 6th June is probably a squeeze if Sunak decides to call after the local elections.

Oh shit. I thought I’d voted for a June election.  Ah well, serves me right for not checking.  

[En Passant 3,741]

59 minutes ago, Sly Ronnie said:

 

The story so far: I'm ruling out the May dates, even 6th June is probably a squeeze if Sunak decides to call after the local elections.

 

Is this is still open to new entries? - I scrolled back and saw no ruling - if so, 3 Oct 24.

However since some dates and associated votes are now ruled out it seems a smidge unfair to allow new entries to a sweepstake system, so if disallowed I shan't complain.

[TQR 14,387]

An updated list. Those in red are a write-off.

 

2 May 24: RoverAndOut

9 May 24: Dying Probably

16 May 24: BuffaloPhil

23 May 24: Paul Bearer

6 Jun 24: Redrumours

13 Jun 24: DCI Frank Burnside

27 Jun 24: Father Brown

4 Jul 24: Sir Creep

5 Sep 24: Bentrovato

12 Sep 24: ladyfiona

26 Sep 24: Sod’s Law

3 Oct 24: En Passant

10 Oct 24: Bibliogryphon

17 Oct 24: Sly Ronnie

24 Oct 24: Diego

31 Oct 24: msc

7 Nov 24: TQR

14 Nov 24: Great Uncle Bulgaria

21 Nov 24: lilham

28 Nov 24: Root Inspector

12 Dec 24: Clorox Bleachman

19 Dec 24: The Old Crem

28 Jan 25: Toast

 

At this point it's still anybody else's guess but tbh I quite like the idea of the election being on SC's guess of 4th July. How perfect that the country should en masse tell Sunak to cunt right off to America on independence day.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Lest we forget, there are a couple of things in play here: what is the date that Sunak intends for an election to be held? Probably a September/October date?

 

But when could he be challenged for the leadership, which could precipitate an election? If it's going to happen, then sometime in May after the local elections? That would mean a general election in June (assuming Rishi goes to the King rather than the membership).

 

Both June and September are sparse in terms of sweepstake picks.

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

Yep he'll go to the Palace if they move against him and I think they will after the locals. 

[Sod's Law 445]

Can I go with 26th September seeing as nobody seems to have picked that yet? There's nothing to say he can't call an election during a parliamentary recess in order to dodge facing the wrath of stroppy backbenchers after a possible rise in boat crossings and the Covid enquiry findings in the summer, and it gives some time to call off conference season. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Article in today's 'i' newspaper saying No. 10 have not denied the possibility of a summer election in June or July in the wake of the local elections.

[Paul Bearer 6,101]

27 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

Article in today's 'i' newspaper saying No. 10 have not denied the possibility of a summer election in June or July in the wake of the local elections.

Can't see it being in July or August as a lot of people are away for holidays.  

[TQR 14,387]

1 hour ago, Paul Bearer said:

Can't see it being in July or August as a lot of people are away for holidays.  

Exactly. That’s why it’d suit them.

[Sly Ronnie 879]

6th June may be a no no as it is the 80th anniversary of D-Day. I'd imagine there would be a ceremony in Normandy. Very awkward if its on the actual day of the election and indeed if it was in the middle of the campaign. Sumak could have it before that date, either 23rd or 30th May. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

2 minutes ago, Sly Ronnie said:

6th June may be a no no as it is the 80th anniversary of D-Day. I'd imagine there would be a ceremony in Normandy. Very awkward if its on the actual day of the election and indeed if it was in the middle of the campaign. Sumak could have it before that date, either 23rd or 30th May. 

 

That would require calling before the May elections, though, and the rebels won't put him under pressure until then.

[Sly Ronnie 879]

21 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

That would require calling before the May elections, though, and the rebels won't put him under pressure until then.

 

Indeed but there is a precedence for this not so long ago, in 2017. Of course the circumstances were different - May had to seek a dissolution through a parliamentary vote before getting her wish. The local elections were then held during the main election campaign.

[Father Brown 209]

June 27 is my guess now. That gives him a bit over a week after the local elections to see Charlie, get a speech written, and kick off the campaign period. He won’t be able to hold off the rebels for very long, he knows he’s cooked. 

 

I certainly don’t think there will be a pre-election leadership contest though. Picking yet another new PM before the election would both play right into Labour’s hands and throw the successor under the bus. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,573]

5 hours ago, Father Brown said:

June 27 is my guess now. That gives him a bit over a week after the local elections to see Charlie, get a speech written, and kick off the campaign period. He won’t be able to hold off the rebels for very long, he knows he’s cooked. 

 

I certainly don’t think there will be a pre-election leadership contest though. Picking yet another new PM before the election would both play right into Labour’s hands and throw the successor under the bus. 

 

I think it is an either or situation

 

If there is not an election there may be a leadership challenge. The election may be called to head off such a challenge

[Philheybrookbay1 247]

Knowing local government,  May has to be off the table now. 

 

There's little doubt down here in SW, they are going to get destroyed but Devon has no election until next year. Plymouth elects a third but that's not going to change.

 

If its bad, June could be a cut and run so 27th June could be the to watch. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Today's 'i' says Michael Gove apparently mentioned November. But the strategy of focusing on improving economic news is not making any difference in the polls, which is, if anything, apparently getting worse. Local party chairs are telling him to "get on with it", saying it's only going to get worse. Grant Shapps apparently schmoozing quite hard to try and make himself the viable alternative to Penny and Kemi. But I'm not at all sure what the question has to be for the answer to be Grant Fucking Shapps.

[Sod's Law 445]

I'm not surprised the polls aren't improving. There's a difference between the news telling them the economy is improving and people feeling it in their pockets. 

[Father Brown 209]

I remember reading around the time of the Budget that it takes months for people to feel the difference, which is why Sunak wants to play the long game. People will be spending less on energy as the summer comes as they hang clothes outside and keep the heating off more. 

[Sod's Law 445]

8 hours ago, Father Brown said:

I remember reading around the time of the Budget that it takes months for people to feel the difference, which is why Sunak wants to play the long game. People will be spending less on energy as the summer comes as they hang clothes outside and keep the heating off more. 

This is another reason why I went with September. A later election means we start slipping into the months where people are spending more on energy/Christmas shopping and starting to feel poorer, and we're in a different place as a country now compared with the winter election in 2019. A September election would ride off the back of summer (and then there's the 'messing with the students returning to uni' aspect which I wouldn't put it past the Tories to pull off).