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Joey Russ

Thoughts On The 2024 List

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I have produced a different graph today which is on a slightly different basis

 

There are only four lines on this one so I hope it is easier to read

 

There is the current record holding year 2020

The current year 2024

 

The average date that each numbered death (Up to 13) has occurred across the past 10 years

The line that would deliver us a new record breaking year on a pro-rata basis (One death every 17 days)

 

image.thumb.png.e49d5de44d6107b09aff0ab2f19c073c.png

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1 hour ago, The Daredevil said:

Of the top five this year, only Jimmy deserves to be there.

I can see some others being maybe better awarded with the top 5. But I don't know as of late how Alan Greenspan's health has been.  But with his age it is a possibility he may be a hit this year, as well as Pete Murray being that he is 99.  

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Today Jan 30th, 3 names of the Deathlist are celebrating their birthday:

Vanessa Redgrave - 87 

Gene Hackman - 94

Dick Cheney - 83

 

Who dies first?

 

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13 minutes ago, thadee said:

Today Jan 30th, 3 names of the Deathlist are celebrating their birthday:

Vanessa Redgrave - 87 

Gene Hackman - 94

Dick Cheney - 83

 

Who dies first? 

 

Redgrave first, Hackman last.

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2 hours ago, thadee said:

Today Jan 30th, 3 names of the Deathlist are celebrating their birthday:

Vanessa Redgrave - 87 

Gene Hackman - 94

Dick Cheney - 83

 

Who dies first?

 

Also Phil Collins who made the drop 40 in the DDP

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Happy Birthday Robert Wagner (94) and Roberta Flack (87) !

Who dies first?

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28 minutes ago, thadee said:

Happy Birthday Robert Wagner (94) and Roberta Flack (87) !

Who dies first?

Flack in 2024 or 2025. Wagner may very well live into 2028.

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We have now fallen behind the 2020 list and on Friday 8th March we will fall behind the pro rata rate for a record breaking year.

 

That early promise is looking a little tarnished now but another flurry could propel us onwards

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On 01/01/2024 at 06:42, The Daredevil said:

Jimmy Carter: 100%, 99 years old, in hospice for over 10 months, lost his wife of 77 years a month ago, will be dead by March and won’t see his 100th birthday, let alone 2025.

 

He made it, next goal is his 100th birthday.

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2 minutes ago, Commtech Sio Bibble said:

He made it, next goal is his 100th birthday.

It's just now March. He honestly could pass any day now, I don't see him making it to April.

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He made it to April.

 

But what's (perhaps) actually interesting, if we make it to Friday without a hit, DL2024 will go from having been the fastest in DL history after only eight days to being the slowest DL of the 2020's, as both 2022 and 2023 had their 4th hit of the year announced on 4 April.

As they say, the DL works in mysterious ways.

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3 hours ago, DoorSlammer said:

He made it to April.

 

But what's (perhaps) actually interesting, if we make it to Friday without a hit, DL2024 will go from having been the fastest in DL history after only eight days to being the slowest DL of the 2020's, as both 2022 and 2023 had their 4th hit of the year announced on 4 April.

As they say, the DL works in mysterious ways.

His body has made it, but his mind is surely gone now. I'm still convinced he's the next hit.

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Just now, mymango said:

His body has made it, but his mind is surely gone now. I'm still convinced he's the next hit.

I Wonder if your obsession for Jimmy is not What keeping him alive at this point… 

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Just now, Lafaucheuse said:

I Wonder if your obsession for Jimmy is not What keeping him alive at this point… 

Often I wonder the same thing. It's probably part of my autism.

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2 minutes ago, mymango said:

It's probably part of my autism.

i knew it.

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Friday is Day 103 of the year

 

In 2020 the official list got its 8th hit

 

It is also the average day for the 4th hit to fall on. So  if Jimmy (or one of his 46 pals) can't deliver by Friday we will be in a below average year

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1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Friday is Day 103 of the year

 

In 2020 the official list got its 8th hit

 

It is also the average day for the 4th hit to fall on. So  if Jimmy (or one of his 46 pals) can't deliver by Friday we will be in a below average year

2024 is on the path to be one of the worst year ever for the DL commitee. Seeing the picks these year, it’s surprising that some have not passed away yet. 

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1 hour ago, La Tombe said:

2024 is on the path to be one of the worst year ever for the DL commitee. Seeing the picks these year, it’s surprising that some have not passed yet. 

 

...suggesting, in fact, that it's not "on the path to be one of the worst years ever".

 

Don't let your death-related blue balls get in the way of making any sense. Bit of patience.

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2022 looked like it was set to be 2011 bad when we were sitting on four hits for almost all summer. Then there were ten hits condensed into a little over four months.

 

Plenty can happen with much of the year to go.

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3 hours ago, La Tombe said:

2024 is on the path to be one of the worst year ever for the DL commitee. Seeing the picks these year, it’s surprising that some have not passed away yet. 

 

The Crowdsourced List is only at four and the TOP 50 in the DDP is only at three so this is more to do with left field deaths this year rather than poor picking by the committee

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26 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

The Crowdsourced List is only at four and the TOP 50 in the DDP is only at three so this is more to do with left field deaths this year rather than poor picking by the committee

Also my impression. A lot of hanging fruits on the list who managed to survive that far but I can’t see Chomsky, Starmer Smith, Woodward, Newhart, Rantzen or Sonny Rollins surviving 2024. Let alone the great Carter. I don’t think it’s a bad list but if most of them survive the year, then 2025 will probably be a bloodbath 

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I, personally am still anticipating great things from this list as there are way too many sick/low hanging fruit candidates to not achieve a very good total. I still think we are going to have a few shocks along the way too away from the official DL and the the DDP will score a very high dead body count. But if I am wrong, which of course I could be then I too echo the comments of @Lafaucheuse that 2025 will be the ultimate bloodbath.

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Over 100 days without a hit now - first time that milestone's been reached since the lull in Summer 2022. 

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We are about two weeks away from the average day for the 5th hit

 

The latest third hit (in the last 10 years) is day 166 (14th June) but the latest day for the fourth hit is only 10 days later (2014)

 

At this point in 2020 we were one week away from the ninth hit

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