U.S Election

[msc 18,390]

Just now, gcreptile said:

Dixville Notch is a little hamlet with 4 registered republicans, and two registered independents. Harris won three out of these.

Reminder: In the primaries, Nikki Haley won six out of six votes, meaning Harris won three Haley voters.

And while Joe Biden won 5-0 in 2020, two people left the village, three new people moved in.

 

Crem is going to doomwank himself silly long before the results are in tbh.

[prussianblue 999]

4 minutes ago, msc said:

Crem is going to doomwank himself silly long before the results are in tbh.

 

That last post was fucking stupid, even by his standards. A literal single-digit sample size.

[Mango 155]

1 hour ago, msc said:

Crem is going to doomwank himself silly long before the results are in tbh.

Most likely gcreptile will end up doing so.

[The Old Crem 3,572]

Trump being said to be looking good on the turnout figures from Florida and Arizona but Nevada is still looking very close and hard to call. 

[maryportfuncity 10,612]

7 hours ago, msc said:

Crem is going to doomwank himself silly long before the results are in tbh.

 

 

Thought to ask AI to be specific on this actity - "It looks like there's not much info available about a doomwank, but here's some related information about doomscrolling and Doomguy"

 

 

[gcreptile 10,937]

Turnout suggests that Harris is obliterating Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania. She needs one more state.

Nevada seems to be going okay. But it's not enough on its own (Nevada + Iowa would work, though, in case Wisconsin doesn't come through).

 

Some people even expressed the idea that Harris could win Florida. But this is something I don't see happening.

[Mango 155]

That doesn't tell the full story. More Republicans have voted early than ever before. The numbers in Pennsylvania simply don't add up for her. The rural vote in Nevada has turned up significantly for Trump.

 

He's obliterating her in Florida, that much is clear.

[The Old Crem 3,572]

1 hour ago, gcreptile said:

Turnout suggests that Harris is obliterating Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania. She needs one more state.

Nevada seems to be going okay. But it's not enough on its own (Nevada + Iowa would work, though, in case Wisconsin doesn't come through).

 

Some people even expressed the idea that Harris could win Florida. But this is something I don't see happening.

It’s hard to tell.

‘So stepping back, one current takeaway from turnout numbers. The polls had Trump up comfortably in Florida. He’s winning very well at the moment. Nevada was very tight in the polls. And it’s looking tight. Arizona was leaning Trump in the polls. It looks like he’s got Arizona. Georgia was Trump, but relatively narrowly. Dems are happy, but not quite breaking out the champagne. Huge caveats. Could be all sorts going on below those figures. But we’re not currently seeing anything that shows a major poll miss on the scale Selzer was implying.’

 

‘Nevada turnout is now looking better for Trump’ 

 

[gcreptile 10,937]

Something interesting from Nevada:

https://x.com/ErinBurnett/status/1853873163769196814

 

Lots of new, young voters. But it's causing issues because young people don't know how to sign their name anymore. Understandable, actually. 

[The Old Crem 3,572]

‘Disclaimer: no useful information comes out on election day, turnout reports are unreliable and not useful, no-one knows anything.

But: Democrats I know all suddenly seem to think they’ve either won comfortably or by a landslide and it’s REALLY setting off 2016 vibes for me.

 

People who 2-3 days ago wouldn’t be drawn beyond “it’s going to be VERY close” are wondering whether it’ll be 300+ electoral college votes.

The confidence is just sending my gut into thinking it’s 2016 all over again. (Which isn’t rational or predictive ofc).
 

One serious point aside from the jitters would be: a 50+ EC win for Harris wouldn’t even be a polling miss. 50-100 would only be a small one. 

How many Trump voters would believe that result? It could be quite dangerous in the short-term if that is the result…‘

 

‘As of noon, this is where the following New York boroughs were as a % of their 2020 turnout

Staten Island 60%
Manhattan 58%
Brooklyn 57%
Queens 50%
Bronx 42%

NY doesn't matter in the end, but MAGA Staten Island outvoting Manhattan and turnout collapse in the Bronx is notable.’

[Katyusha 120]

My 2c, the scenario I'm thinking of is not another 2016, but another 2020. Results come down to 3 or 4 states by a >1% margin of excruciatingly slowly-counted mail ballots. By the time these states' results are actually confirmed Trump has already declared victory, because of course he has. A significant contingent of his voter base and GOP politicians refuse to accept if he loses, Trump says increasingly irresponsible things, his base react predictably... deja vu.

[RoverAndOut 4,709]

Has anybody said anything worth reading so far today? I've got half of you saying current turnout benefits Harris, and half of you saying it favours Trump. Truth is you're all scrabbling around in the dark until the bloody things are counted. We're nowhere near knowing who's going to win than we were this morning. I'm not counting any chickens of any kind until a result is called, and I'm certainly not taking the vote of 6 people in the middle of nowhere as an indicator of who's going to be the next President. Frankly, I'm not sure we can take any result as gospel until January 20th, the way this hullabaloo is going to carry on.

[RoverAndOut 4,709]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

He's obliterating her in Florida, that much is clear.

 

Is this meant to be a surprise? Florida is turning into Trumpland. They're as nuts as he is and have been for years.

[gcreptile 10,937]

1 minute ago, RoverAndOut said:

Has anybody said anything worth reading so far today? I've got half of you saying current turnout benefits Harris, and half of you saying it favours Trump. Truth is you're all scrabbling around in the dark until the bloody things are counted. We're nowhere near knowing who's going to win than we were this morning. I'm not counting any chickens of any kind until a result is called, and I'm certainly not taking the vote of 6 people in the middle of nowhere as an indicator of who's going to be the next President. Frankly, I'm not sure we can take any result as gospel until January 20th, the way this hullabaloo is going to carry on.

You'll only know who to listen to after the fact

 

Edit: Yes, Florida is turning into Magakanda. It sucks up conservatives from other states, ironically making the country as a whole a little more Democratic.

[Mango 155]

There's no evidence of that. Gallup has the electorate at R+3.

[gcreptile 10,937]

Just now, Mango said:

There's no evidence of that. Gallup has the electorate at R+3.

You don't understand. It's not about the electorate as a whole but about its distribution.

[RoverAndOut 4,709]

8 minutes ago, Mango said:

There's no evidence of that. Gallup has the electorate at R+3.

 

I don't care what Gallup say, you only have to look at Florida's decisions over the past decade. Repeated elections for de Santis, support for his crackpot Disney war, increasingly insane referendum results, the fictitious war on woke...I could go on. Its voting patterns are MAGA Central.

[Joey Russ 7,210]

I’m gonna be honest, I really think Dobbs have genuinely fucked up republicans in a way that no other political decision have. Before Dobbs happened, I feel like a lot of people probably viewed abortion as merely a campaign tactic and not something actually at risk. But now that it happened? A lot of people are genuinely pissed. That is why (even though I still think Trump ekes out a victory in Iowa) the Selzer poll is probably on the right track. I think people are done with putting up with Republicans, at least for the near future. The economy genuinely isn’t as bad as people claim, and while media hasn’t been spending as much time as they should on it, Trump has declined. I’m sorry, but he really did. 
I want to be very clear that Trump definitely has a chance but if all the early indications are trending like I think they are, Republicans aren’t gonna have a good night. His campaign in 2016 and his campaign in 2024 are extremely different in how well run they are. If Trump wins, it’s not gonna be because of anything he did right, this country just became a giant right wing shithole. But I think people are underestimating the chances of Kamala winning this fairly easily. 

[Sly Ronnie 867]

This might be a cynical view but I do wonder who the US media really want to win. Donald Trump, colossal dick that he is, is good copy. The right will big him up, even though he'll end up doing nowt and the pearl-clutching liberals will have a field day and will doom-monger right up until January 20 2029. All for clicks, clicks clicks.

Harris would be a historic win for sure but that will soon wear off and she's seems...alright, I suppose. Unless she orders an invasion of Bali or something she'll probably play it safe. Hopefully she will win and close the book on this circus for good.

[RoverAndOut 4,709]

1 minute ago, Sly Ronnie said:

This might be a cynical view but I do wonder who the US media really want to win. Donald Trump, colossal dick that he is, is good copy. The right will big him up, even though he'll end up doing nowt and the pearl-clutching liberals will have a field day and will doom-monger right up until January 20 2029. All for clicks, clicks clicks.

Harris would be a historic win for sure but that will soon wear off and she's seems...alright, I suppose. Unless she orders an invasion of Bali or something she'll probably play it safe. Hopefully she will win and close the book on this circus for good.

 

Well if it makes you feel better, if Harris wins you can look forward to the complete disintegration of the rule of law and mobs of angry MAGA supporters storming municipal buildings across the country while their Commander-in-Chief screams nonsensical conspiracy theories. That should provide decent copy for a few weeks at least...

[Sly Ronnie 867]

1 minute ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Well if it makes you feel better, if Harris wins you can look forward to the complete disintegration of the rule of law and mobs of angry MAGA supporters storming municipal buildings across the country while their Commander-in-Chief screams nonsensical conspiracy theories. That should provide decent copy for a few weeks at least...

 

Yeah, sure but it will soon blow over. If Harris has it in the bag, they can rage all they like it aint gonna make a difference.

[maryportfuncity 10,612]

59 minutes ago, Sly Ronnie said:

This might be a cynical view but I do wonder who the US media really want to win. Donald Trump, colossal dick that he is, is good copy. The right will big him up, even though he'll end up doing nowt and the pearl-clutching liberals will have a field day and will doom-monger right up until January 20 2029. All for clicks, clicks clicks.

Harris would be a historic win for sure but that will soon wear off and she's seems...alright, I suppose. Unless she orders an invasion of Bali or something she'll probably play it safe. Hopefully she will win and close the book on this circus for good.

 

 

Trump's good copy win or lose. If he loses he misses the chance to pardon himself for a few of the crimes he's charged with and his legal woes are clickbait gold for a couple of years at least. If he goes bust in the process Melania's kiss and tell memoir will be a stonking read

[The Old Crem 3,572]

‘CNN exit poll has bad numbers for Harris on state of country and Biden approval. But not determinative. We need to wait for demographic data’

 

‘One thing clear to me from the exit poll. If Republicans had selected any other candidate but Trump, and run a classical issues based campaign, this election wouldn’t have been close.’

 

‘CNN exit poll numbers also bad for Harris on the economy’.

 

‘The Democracy issue is good news for Harris. But the salience of the economy isn’t. Nor is abortion at 14%, given that’s supposed to be her major driver.’

 

‘national preliminary exits on MSNBC, if Trump is elected, how would you feel?

excited/optimistic: 48%
scared/concerned: 50%

who do you trust more to handle abortion?
Harris: 51%
Trump: 44%

who do you trust more to handle crime?
Trump: 50%
Harris: 48%’

 

Trump’s winning based on those polls.

[RoverAndOut 4,709]

Loads of quotation marks, no attributations. Classic Crem. 

[The Old Crem 3,572]

It seems based on the early votes from Indiana that it could be a close one like 2020. My guess is through it will be a battle between various shifts in the swing states - demographics that are shifting democrat or republican that will decide it. To be that favours Trump because of his gains with some non white groups vs possible Harris gains.