RoverAndOut 4,746 Posted August 7, 2015 Wow.... 10 hits and there are still almost 5 months left in the year. I presume we'll get 15 with the help of Martin Crowe, Valerie Harper, maybe Bhumibol Adulyadej, maybe Zsa Zsa Gabor, and one of the U.S. political figures (Bush, Reagan, Kissinger, Dole). Oh, I forgot about Kohl... we all though he'd die in June. Oh, whatever. Point is we should have at least 15. I can see us getting to 13 and then a couple going in early January just to spite us. Everyone keeps marvelling at Crowe's longevity so who knows, he might die tomorrow or he might be here this time next year with everyone scratching their heads. Likewise Kohl. And don't even get me started on Zsa Zsa. But there are, in total, 14 deathlisters aged 95 and over still alive, so surely at least another 1 or 2 of those might go (although gcreptile seems to have thrown a spanner into those works using poxy things like maths to tell us we've reached peak-age related death). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,571 Posted August 7, 2015 Wow.... 10 hits and there are still almost 5 months left in the year. I presume we'll get 15 with the help of Martin Crowe, Valerie Harper, maybe Bhumibol Adulyadej, maybe Zsa Zsa Gabor, and one of the U.S. political figures (Bush, Reagan, Kissinger, Dole). Oh, I forgot about Kohl... we all though he'd die in June. Oh, whatever. Point is we should have at least 15. I can see us getting to 13 and then a couple going in early January just to spite us. Everyone keeps marvelling at Crowe's longevity so who knows, he might die tomorrow or he might be here this time next year with everyone scratching their heads. Likewise Kohl. And don't even get me started on Zsa Zsa. But there are, in total, 14 deathlisters aged 95 and over still alive, so surely at least another 1 or 2 of those might go (although gcreptile seems to have thrown a spanner into those works using poxy things like maths to tell us we've reached peak-age related death). The statistics show that this could all we would expect in a normal year but remember most events are distributed on a bell curve around a mean and for every poor year there should be a really good year so any we get now are pushing us into the region where probability says this would be a rare event (but not an impossible one). I think there are five that are serious contenders to go and every left field death will not diminish that number. I think the record is in sight but we might end up with a very thin Autumn. Exciting times. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,966 Posted August 7, 2015 Wow.... 10 hits and there are still almost 5 months left in the year. I presume we'll get 15 with the help of Martin Crowe, Valerie Harper, maybe Bhumibol Adulyadej, maybe Zsa Zsa Gabor, and one of the U.S. political figures (Bush, Reagan, Kissinger, Dole). Oh, I forgot about Kohl... we all though he'd die in June. Oh, whatever. Point is we should have at least 15. I can see us getting to 13 and then a couple going in early January just to spite us. Everyone keeps marvelling at Crowe's longevity so who knows, he might die tomorrow or he might be here this time next year with everyone scratching their heads. Likewise Kohl. And don't even get me started on Zsa Zsa. But there are, in total, 14 deathlisters aged 95 and over still alive, so surely at least another 1 or 2 of those might go (although gcreptile seems to have thrown a spanner into those works using poxy things like maths to tell us we've reached peak-age related death). The statistics show that this could all we would expect in a normal year but remember most events are distributed on a bell curve around a mean and for every poor year there should be a really good year so any we get now are pushing us into the region where probability says this would be a rare event (but not an impossible one). I think there are five that are serious contenders to go and every left field death will not diminish that number. I think the record is in sight but we might end up with a very thin Autumn. Exciting times. Indeed, just because the current number of age-related deaths is the most likely one, it doesn't mean that it is the most likely result by a huge margin. But IF the Deathlist remains in its current format for many, many decades, and IF the average age of the candidates remains the same and IF the Deathlist continues to pick old people simply for their universal fame, then we can expect that a number of 6 or 7 age-related deaths per year is the most frequent outcome. But in a single year, many other things can happen. But it was a nice coincidence that the death of John Nash, a total freebie so to say, happened in an already promising year. Not making the record now would be a bit of a shame. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CaptainChorizo 1,977 Posted August 7, 2015 We've had six "age-related" deaths so far, Cole, Macnee, King, Lee, O'Sullevan and Kerkorian. There are about 35 people on the list who were mainly chosen because they were old (i.e. no terminal cancer, no ALS, no "how can they still be alive??" cases like Gabor, Graham, Bhumibol). Six out of 35 is 17%, which is roughly the mortality rate of the average 90 year old man. The average age of the people picked for their age is in the low 90s, I guess, but there are a few women who, statistically, can be expected to live a little longer. So basically, with six age-related deaths, the list has reached the expected quota for age-related deaths. More age-related deaths would be a little lucky. P.S.: Though maybe the number of age-related picks on the list is closer to 30 which makes the six deaths so far quite a success. Also though their are several people picked like DeHavilland,Prince Phillip,Fidel Castro etc who are must choose picks because of their notability and or historical importance even though they are clearly less likely to die then if replaced on the list by a random celebrity their age who was picked at random. Factoring that in it makes the hitrate pretty impressive this year. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GossipGabe 333 Posted August 7, 2015 We've had six "age-related" deaths so far, Cole, Macnee, King, Lee, O'Sullevan and Kerkorian. There are about 35 people on the list who were mainly chosen because they were old (i.e. no terminal cancer, no ALS, no "how can they still be alive??" cases like Gabor, Graham, Bhumibol). Six out of 35 is 17%, which is roughly the mortality rate of the average 90 year old man. The average age of the people picked for their age is in the low 90s, I guess, but there are a few women who, statistically, can be expected to live a little longer. So basically, with six age-related deaths, the list has reached the expected quota for age-related deaths. More age-related deaths would be a little lucky. P.S.: Though maybe the number of age-related picks on the list is closer to 30 which makes the six deaths so far quite a success. Also though their are several people picked like DeHavilland,Prince Phillip,Fidel Castro etc who are must choose picks because of their notability and or historical importance even though they are clearly less likely to die then if replaced on the list by a random celebrity their age who was picked at random. Factoring that in it makes the hitrate pretty impressive this year. I don't really agree that Fidel is less likely to die than a random celeb his age. He stepped down 7 years ago for health-related reasons. He wouldn't be able to get the best quality healthcare available to American celebs. (Yes, Cuban doctors are sought after in poor Latin-American countries like Venezuela, but would they be able to get cutting-edge chemotherapy medications, medical equipment?) And Olivia might be healthier than an average 99 year old, but at that age, she might drop any day. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JR976evil 906 Posted August 7, 2015 Wonder if Dennis Waterman will sing at his funeral? 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RadGuy 1,614 Posted August 7, 2015 Hasn't been tagged as dead yet. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungWillz 21,035 Posted August 10, 2015 I'd respectfully request George be given the honour of a dead tag please. Thanks in advance. Your humble servant, etc etc. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest droosy Posted August 12, 2015 Are we waiting for the obligatory three days for Cole to come out of his grave or why he hasn´t been tagged yet? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paulh85 101 Posted August 13, 2015 still not dead then.... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Phantom 2,533 Posted August 13, 2015 Dennis Waterman didn't sing, but the Minder theme was played at the funeral Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Scraggy Taters 290 Posted August 13, 2015 Dennis Waterman didn't sing, but the Minder theme was played at the funeral It'd been great if he had sung it at Georges funeral, just for a laugh. Mind you ... with Dennis being a notoriously miserable twat, heavy smoker & pushing his late 60s , probably best he hadn't. 'Vic Reeves club-singer' springs to mind. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites