What Do You Think Of The 2015 Death List?

[Spade_Cooley 9,521]

Big fan of literally nobody anyone on the first two pages of this thread was "a guaranteed death this year the DL committee are idiots to miss them off" dying.

[msc 18,439]

Big fan of literally nobody anyone on the first two pages of this thread was "a guaranteed death this year the DL committee are idiots to miss them off" dying.

 

Apparently Scott Putesky was a big miss. His claim to fame with me is reminding me of Scott Putski.

 

Not sure why Mary Tyler Moore has such an obsession on here.

[Guest Guest]

 

No Mohammed Ali for the second consecutive year, the DL Committee was right to miss him off the last twelve months, but will they be as fortunate for the coming year?

Muhammad Ali is dead! That's what you will alomost certainly read t his year !

 

 

That said I actually think this years list is not bad.I think you could get 15 to 20 hits . That's me cursed it then !

 

looks like my prediction will come true. let's face it if you include at least 20-30 nonagerians you can't go far wrong !

[RIP Wee Jum 1,559]

What do we say? Record breaking year? I think so.

 

[msc 18,439]

The list of hits per Deathlist year table, as nicely tidied up by Magere Hein:

 

 

=1. 2015 (14/50), 2008 (14/50), 2003 (14/50)
=4. 2013 (13/50), 2006 (13/50)
=6. 2012 (12/50), 2009 (12/50), 2005 (12/50), 2004 (12/50)
=10. 2014 (10/50), 2007 (10/50), 2002 (10/50), 2001 (10/50), 2000 (10/50), 1999 (10/50)
=16. 2010 (9/50), 1997 (9/50), 1995 (9/50), 1994 (9/50)
20. 1998 (8/50)
=21. 2011 (7/50), 1996 (7/50)
=23. 1993 (5/56), 1992 (5/37)
=25. 1990 (3/42), 1989 (3/32)
=27. 1987 (1/31)
28. 1991 (0/40)

 

Deathlist 2015, a record equaling year, is held up by 79% old people not waking up. And so what? I refer long time complainers to the Grim Reaper back in 2010:

 

 

 

Ahh the honour of having the committee compared to a government - Holds itself out to be morally sound but is secretly corrupt and self-fulfilling - I'll take that Of course, we've never held DeathList out to be any sort of democracy, but perhaps we should introduce some fake vote counting for the icing on the cake

The age thing is a bit of a double-edged sword. As appealing as picking Lilo and the like is, the reality is that they are pretty unlikely to die. The old age celebrities are a rich seam of success and a little more satisfying when their death comes out of the blue i.e. without the warning illness first.

Besides, it'd be less fun if everyone said it was a fantastic list and saluted the committee for a wonderful job.

Happy New Year

GR

So, is this a record breaking year?

 

Here's the number of hits still to come at this time of the year.

 

2014 - 2

2013 - 4

2012 - 1

2011 - 2

2010 - 1

2009 - 0

2008* - 2

2007 - 1

2006 - 4

2005 - 1

2004 - 2

2003* - 0

2002* - 0

2001* - 1

2000* - 0

1999* - 1

1997* - 1

1995* - 1

1994* - 0

 

* denotes historical record creating years or record equaling years at the time (I had no intention of writing out 28 of them!)

 

Now, the last year to have no December or late November hits was 2009, and that year was entirely opposite to 2015. In 2009, 67% of hits were due to well selected terminally ill people, and the list eventually burned through them. The elder members on the list kept breathing (though annoyingly, one or two got dropped for doing that and promptly died in 2010!). Whereas this year, the terminal and seriously ill seem to soldier on, whilst the long lived elderly don't. That's life for you.


In terms of record years, we've a 50/50 precedent. 2003 had no deaths after September. 2008 shot into record contention with late deaths of Mark Felt and Harold Pinter. Of the last decade, there seems a 90% chance there will be at least one more hit in the year.

My guess remains that Martin Crowe is unlikely to see New Year. Given how this year has gone, though, we're as likely to create a record breaker out of Cliff Michelmore.

[Deathray 2,940]

That 4 from 2013 would do nicely.

[The Mad Hatter 1,092]

That 4 from 2013 would do nicely.

I prefer July 2007 for December

[Death Impends 7,964]

Another random observation: This year has seen a remarkable burst in the age bubble yet the very oldest on the list continue to soldier on. The six earliest born names on the list are all still living. To be fair I could easily see Olivia de Havilland ultimately outlasting every 95+ name on this year's list, but the point stands.

[Bibliogryphon 9,577]

From the DL obituary of Elia Kazan who was the previous record breaker.

 

It looks like DeathList 2003 is going to set an awesome target that won't be surpassed for many years to come.

 

If 2015 does break the record will we have to wait until 2027 to break it again?

[CaptainChorizo 1,977]

Is is possible when the record is broken it will stand a very long time. Life expectancies increase every year and there seems to always be experimental drugs that can keep people with late stage cancer alive longer. Death predicting will only get harder every year.

[Spade_Cooley 9,521]

DDP scores seem to suggest otherwise.

[charon 4,943]

Is is possible when the record is broken it will stand a very long time. Life expectancies increase every year and there seems to always be experimental drugs that can keep people with late stage cancer alive longer. Death predicting will only get harder every year.

True, but the rise of the little ill darlings using Twitter etc, gives us more info.

 

Evens out imo...

[RadGuy 1,614]

But on the other hand, it's also getting easier to get access to news on the health of celebrities.

I mean, if today's technology was like the technology of 10-15 years ago, how many people would know that Howard Marks or Daisy Berkowitz or other obscure people were ill?

[The Mad Hatter 1,092]

But on the other hand, it's also getting easier to get access to news on the health of celebrities.

I mean, if today's technology was like the technology of 10-15 years ago, how many people would know that Howard Marks or David Berkowitz or other obscure people were ill?

I won't say Howard marks is obscure, he did have a movie made about him.

[gcreptile 10,970]

By my count, the current Death List is made up of 32 people who were basically chosen because they were old and famous. These picks are basically unaffected by technological progress. It just means that in the future, the age-related picks might already be a little older when chosen. Then there are a couple of half ill/half old people, Gabor, Graham, Castro, King of Thailand... Then there are the longshot picks, the sort of ill but not necessarily terminally ill gambles Large, Roberts, Kercheval, and Nash, I guess. The really terminally ill people, Simon, Crowe, Nimoy, Harper, Woodhead, James and Van Der Westhuizen are a minority. It looks like medical advances have really helped Harper and James. Maybe Van der Westhuizen would have died a long time ago if this was the 20th century? Though I think that the way the Death List is set up, one shouldn't expect a marked decline in numbers. But this year, we got lucky with age-related deaths, which is why there might be a record. Plus, there was the freak accident of John Nash. A statistical present. I guess this is why the record might last a while, unless the committee changes its approach. However, my argument would also mean that DDP scores decline in the future. This year isn't over yet, but as far as I can tell, the chance of anyone reaching 100 pts depend most likely on the death Martin Crowe. His continued survival symbolizes the medical progress in a way. But then for ruthless DDP players, new technology also plays a bigger role than for the committee choosing old, universally famous people.

[msc 18,439]

The Deathlist has always been made of really old, famous people, mostly! Though, for all the talk of a logjam of old people talking up spaces on the Deathlist, it reminds me of the time around 1999. Throughout the nineties, there was a lot of notable old types who showed up on each years Deathlist, much like now. Then, from 2000 to 2005 this happened:

 

Year, Person Who Was a Deathlist hit (number of appearances on the Deathlist at time of death)

 

2000 - Gielgud (9), Cartland (11)

2001 – Bradman (10),

2002 – Queen Mum (14),

2003 – Hope (13), Hepburn (11)

2004 – Wray (7), Reagan (14), Alice (9), Cooke (10), Adair (8)

2005 – JP2 (12), Wiesenthal (8), Mills (10), Callaghan (8)

 

So by the time it got to 2006, the only person with more than 6 appearances left were Michael Foot (7), and Kurt Waldheim, Pinochet and Clive Dunn on 10 each.

 

Similar will happen over the next few years. People might live older, but no one outruns time forever.

[Cat O'Falk 3,290]

The Deathlist has always been made of really old, famous people, mostly! Though, for all the talk of a logjam of old people talking up spaces on the Deathlist, it reminds me of the time around 1999. Throughout the nineties, there was a lot of notable old types who showed up on each years Deathlist, much like now. Then, from 2000 to 2005 this happened:

 

Year, Person Who Was a Deathlist hit (number of appearances on the Deathlist at time of death)

 

2000 - Gielgud (9), Cartland (11)

2001 – Bradman (10),

2002 – Queen Mum (14),

2003 – Hope (13), Hepburn (11)

2004 – Wray (7), Reagan (14), Alice (9), Cooke (10), Adair (8)

2005 – JP2 (12), Wiesenthal (8), Mills (10), Callaghan (8)

 

So by the time it got to 2006, the only person with more than 6 appearances left were Michael Foot (7), and Kurt Waldheim, Pinochet and Clive Dunn on 10 each.

 

Similar will happen over the next few years. People might live older, but no one outruns time forever.

 

[RadGuy 1,614]

The Deathlist has always been made of really old, famous people, mostly! Though, for all the talk of a logjam of old people talking up spaces on the Deathlist, it reminds me of the time around 1999. Throughout the nineties, there was a lot of notable old types who showed up on each years Deathlist, much like now. Then, from 2000 to 2005 this happened:

 

Year, Person Who Was a Deathlist hit (number of appearances on the Deathlist at time of death)

 

2000 - Gielgud (9), Cartland (11)

2001 Bradman (10),

2002 Queen Mum (14),

2003 Hope (13), Hepburn (11)

2004 Wray (7), Reagan (14), Alice (9), Cooke (10), Adair (8)

2005 JP2 (12), Wiesenthal (8), Mills (10), Callaghan (8)

 

So by the time it got to 2006, the only person with more than 6 appearances left were Michael Foot (7), and Kurt Waldheim, Pinochet and Clive Dunn on 10 each.

 

Similar will happen over the next few years. People might live older, but no one outruns time forever.

That's true. It might pay off to have included all these oldies in the next few years when João Havelange, Billy Graham, Olivia de Havilland, Kirk Douglas, George H. W. Bush, Fidel Castro, and of course, FSM-willing, Zsa Zsa Gabor, will die.

[RadGuy 1,614]

We've had 14 hits in the 45 weeks that have so far happened in 2015. That's an average of 1 death per 3.2 weeks. From November 10th thru December 31st, there are 7 weeks. So even if we go at a slightly below average pace for the rest of the year, we can still expect the total to reach 16.

[Davey Jones' Locker 1,324]

We've had 14 hits in the 45 weeks that have so far happened in 2015. That's an average of 1 death per 3.2 weeks. From November 10th thru December 31st, there are 7 weeks. So even if we go at a slightly below average pace for the rest of the year, we can still expect the total to reach 16.

Never expect anything. The Reaper is a very fickle fellow. We could continue at his pace or there could be a drought or there could be a flood.

[Bibliogryphon 9,577]

We've had 14 hits in the 45 weeks that have so far happened in 2015. That's an average of 1 death per 3.2 weeks. From November 10th thru December 31st, there are 7 weeks. So even if we go at a slightly below average pace for the rest of the year, we can still expect the total to reach 16.

 

That argument doesnt work. In 2003 we got to 14 by September at that rate it that should have had us heading to 18 for the year but it just stopped.

 

Time for a Kate Bush reference

 

December will be Magic Tragic Again

[Bibliogryphon 9,577]

Like this year 2003 was a slow starter. First death did not occur until day 64 (58 this year) and it was all over by day 271 which over that period was a death every 15 days. This year the graph has followed a similar pattern with the very intense mid year period.

 

I think it is 50/50 whether the record goes.

[RadGuy 1,614]

In 2015, we had three deaths in October and four in June.

 

I've noticed, however, that it's been years since we had a REALLY eventful week/month.

 

Like in 2002, when three people died on March 27th and then the Queen Mother on March 30th.

 

Or in 2003, when four people died on September 8th through September 12th, and one more person later that month.