Who Do You Think Will Win The Democrat And Republican Nominations?

[Rotten Ali 600]

I'm fucking digging a hole and crawling in it. I have lost all faith with my countrypeoples.

If you need to escape, I can employ you, we can vouch for you, and welcome you to the UK.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Democrats caucus tomorrow in Alaska, Hawaii and Washington.

 

My prediction is that all three states will go for Bernie Sanders, because:

 

1) He does well in caucuses. Hillary supporters aren't as energetic and their decision doesn't seem as strong as Bernie supporters. They go to primaries but they don't care enough to waste hours at caucuses.

 

2) These states are as white as snow (before it turns into slush, dogs urinate on it, mixes with mud, etc).

 

3) The liberals in Hawaii and Washington are trendy, young, progressive, hipsters - a demographic that overwhelming favors Bernie.

 

4) While in Alaska, people are libertarians. The kind that despises government and would only vote for Donald or Bernie because they're naive enough to think that either of them would do anything to destroy the establishment. Fun Fact: they won't.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

I'm fucking digging a hole and crawling in it. I have lost all faith with my countrypeoples.

Don't do that CA!!!!!!!!!!!

Stay!!!!

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

After this week, I cannot see anybody but Trump as President.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

After this week, I cannot see anybody but Trump as President.

 

Based on what? Many Americans are nowhere near as panicked by terrorism as they are portrayed to be, and many that are concerned about global defence think Hillary is a safer bet than Trump. A friend of mine's husband works at the Pentagon and was spending some time with some military men last week (usually a fairly safe Republican base) and apparently every single one of them said if it comes down to Trump v Hillary, they'll vote for Hillary. And yes, this was after Brussels...

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

 

After this week, I cannot see anybody but Trump as President.

 

Based on what? Many Americans are nowhere near as panicked by terrorism as they are portrayed to be, and many that are concerned about global defence think Hillary is a safer bet than Trump. A friend of mine's husband works at the Pentagon and was spending some time with some military men last week (usually a fairly safe Republican base) and apparently every single one of them said if it comes down to Trump v Hillary, they'll vote for Hillary. And yes, this was after Brussels...

 

Are they not? Im not convinced.

[Guest Droosy]

 

 

After this week, I cannot see anybody but Trump as President.

 

Based on what? Many Americans are nowhere near as panicked by terrorism as they are portrayed to be, and many that are concerned about global defence think Hillary is a safer bet than Trump. A friend of mine's husband works at the Pentagon and was spending some time with some military men last week (usually a fairly safe Republican base) and apparently every single one of them said if it comes down to Trump v Hillary, they'll vote for Hillary. And yes, this was after Brussels...

 

Are they not? Im not convinced.

 

and my psychopatic uncle goes voting for Trump, which will make the rest of the city vote for Hillary, simply as that!!

[CarolAnn 926]

 

 

After this week, I cannot see anybody but Trump as President.

 

Based on what? Many Americans are nowhere near as panicked by terrorism as they are portrayed to be, and many that are concerned about global defence think Hillary is a safer bet than Trump. A friend of mine's husband works at the Pentagon and was spending some time with some military men last week (usually a fairly safe Republican base) and apparently every single one of them said if it comes down to Trump v Hillary, they'll vote for Hillary. And yes, this was after Brussels...

 

Are they not? Im not convinced.

 

 

Nah. We're not. Whether it's a misplaced laissez-faire attitude because this is such a big place or a genuine idea that overall we are exceptionally safe I don't know, but I do know that in my experience only the hawks are screaming about terrorism. Everyone else believes we should take reasonable precautions but there is no point in walking around with a personal bomb shelter. The media latches on to the criers and whiners and those who are freaking out angry 'cause it's good television.

 

Me, I'm still driving across the country on a regular basis, so if anyone wants to get me they just have to blow up Interstate 40.

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,218]

 

 

 

After this week, I cannot see anybody but Trump as President.

 

Based on what? Many Americans are nowhere near as panicked by terrorism as they are portrayed to be, and many that are concerned about global defence think Hillary is a safer bet than Trump. A friend of mine's husband works at the Pentagon and was spending some time with some military men last week (usually a fairly safe Republican base) and apparently every single one of them said if it comes down to Trump v Hillary, they'll vote for Hillary. And yes, this was after Brussels...

 

Are they not? Im not convinced.

 

 

Nah. We're not. Whether it's a misplaced laissez-faire attitude because this is such a big place or a genuine idea that overall we are exceptionally safe I don't know, but I do know that in my experience only the hawks are screaming about terrorism. Everyone else believes we should take reasonable precautions but there is no point in walking around with a personal bomb shelter. The media latches on to the criers and whiners and those who are freaking out angry 'cause it's good television.

 

Me, I'm still driving across the country on a regular basis, so if anyone wants to get me they just have to blow up Interstate 40.

 

That told me then.

Do you get any, like, promotional offers everytime you fill up?

We get 'clubcard' points here ( from Tescos) and, as Im filling up my works van at least twice a week, the Christmas shop will be paid for.

[Cat O'Falk 3,290]

Do you get any, like, promotional offers everytime you fill up?

We get 'clubcard' points here ( from Tescos) and, as Im filling up my works van at least twice a week, the Christmas shop will be paid for.

 

I used to get through nigh on 600 litres a week and keep the rewards; happy days.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Sanders wins 3-to-1 in Alaska and Washington. The caucuses just started in Hawaii so no results in yet.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

 

 

 

After this week, I cannot see anybody but Trump as President.

 

Based on what? Many Americans are nowhere near as panicked by terrorism as they are portrayed to be, and many that are concerned about global defence think Hillary is a safer bet than Trump. A friend of mine's husband works at the Pentagon and was spending some time with some military men last week (usually a fairly safe Republican base) and apparently every single one of them said if it comes down to Trump v Hillary, they'll vote for Hillary. And yes, this was after Brussels...

 

Are they not? Im not convinced.

 

 

Nah. We're not. Whether it's a misplaced laissez-faire attitude because this is such a big place or a genuine idea that overall we are exceptionally safe I don't know, but I do know that in my experience only the hawks are screaming about terrorism. Everyone else believes we should take reasonable precautions but there is no point in walking around with a personal bomb shelter. The media latches on to the criers and whiners and those who are freaking out angry 'cause it's good television.

 

Me, I'm still driving across the country on a regular basis, so if anyone wants to get me they just have to blow up Interstate 40.

 

 

Thanks Carol, saves me trawling through CNN trying to find the exit poll data I know I've seen saying the same thing.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Sanders wins 3-to-1 in Alaska and Washington. The caucuses just started in Hawaii so no results in yet.

 

Wowee this will change everything. Washington has 101 delegates and Bernie looks set to win 76-24 or thereabouts. So that means a massive...50 delegates gained on Hillary. Similar wins in Alaska and Hawaii (total delegates 41) would mean around another 20 delegate swing to Bernie. So that's 70 delegates eaten out of a lead of 300 pledged delegates. Hillary must be shaking in her boots...

 

He's starting to sound more and more deluded is Bernie. I'll pay attention if he beats her 75-25 in California, otherwise he's just making a lot of noise.

[RadGuy 1,614]

ALASKA

82% Sanders

18% Clinton

 

HAWAII

70% Sanders

30% Clinton

 

WASHINGTON

73% Sanders

27% Clinton

 

Three huge losses in a day? Is this the end of Clinton's campaign? Nope.

Sanders is only expected to win a couple more states: Wyoming, West Virginia, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Oregon - all expect Oregon are some of the least populated states in the country.

He also has a shot at: Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Indiana, Kentucky.

Madame Clinton on the other hand, is expected to have whopping winnings in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and probably Connecticut too. For now she is also favored in California and New Jersey

Plus she still has a better chance than Sanders at Wisconsin, Rhode Island, Indiana, and Kentucky. But you can't be too sure.

[msc 18,438]

Thing is, Sanders was never meant to win the nomination. He's the fringe candidate, the Democrats Kasich or Carson or so, who is meant to go out reasonably early as the big hitters fight it out. There is no big hitters on the Dem side beyond Clinton, so given he still IS a fringe candidate turned into the only one, him actually win a whole bunch of states is a remarkable achievement. That, and it might help lay out the ground work for future, younger, centre left politicians in the US. Maybe.

[CarolAnn 926]

 

 

 

 

After this week, I cannot see anybody but Trump as President.

 

Based on what? Many Americans are nowhere near as panicked by terrorism as they are portrayed to be, and many that are concerned about global defence think Hillary is a safer bet than Trump. A friend of mine's husband works at the Pentagon and was spending some time with some military men last week (usually a fairly safe Republican base) and apparently every single one of them said if it comes down to Trump v Hillary, they'll vote for Hillary. And yes, this was after Brussels...

 

Are they not? Im not convinced.

 

 

Nah. We're not. Whether it's a misplaced laissez-faire attitude because this is such a big place or a genuine idea that overall we are exceptionally safe I don't know, but I do know that in my experience only the hawks are screaming about terrorism. Everyone else believes we should take reasonable precautions but there is no point in walking around with a personal bomb shelter. The media latches on to the criers and whiners and those who are freaking out angry 'cause it's good television.

 

Me, I'm still driving across the country on a regular basis, so if anyone wants to get me they just have to blow up Interstate 40.

 

That told me then.

Do you get any, like, promotional offers everytime you fill up?

We get 'clubcard' points here ( from Tescos) and, as Im filling up my works van at least twice a week, the Christmas shop will be paid for.

 

 

I wish. Even in my motorized shoebox I spend $250 in gas a trip and the only thing I have to show for it is dead bugs splatted across my front grille, slightly balder tired and a massive cramp in my back.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Tomorrow is the Wisconsin primary.

Bernie expected to win the Democratic contest by a small margin, although I think Hillary has a chance for an upset since she seems to do better than expected in primaries (as opposed to Bernie who does better than expected in caucuses).

Cruz was originally expected to win the Republican contest by about 10% more than Trump, but a new poll came in showing Trump with 10% more than Cruz.

 

So both contests hard to predict. *munches popcorn*

[RadGuy 1,614]

Not that many precincts reporting yet, but Sanders has a lead barely in the double digits, and Cruz is absolutely squashing Trump, having almost twice as much as him.

 

I will update again soon.

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

Not that many precincts reporting yet, but Sanders has a lead barely in the double digits, and Cruz is absolutely squashing Trump, having almost twice as much as him.

 

I will update again soon.

 

 

Update - in case anyone missed the news - is that RadGuy's discussion predicted the results fairly well. Trump and Hilary both being conspicuous by their failure to face up to the defeats at a press conference. Trump especially could be wounded to the point he won't get to the Republican convention with an unassailable lead and will - therefore - likely be conspired against and squeezed out as their candidate. Of course, there's a shit load of campaigning and voting to go before then.

[Phantom 2,533]

Not that many precincts reporting yet, but Sanders has a lead barely in the double digits, and Cruz is absolutely squashing Trump, having almost twice as much as him.

 

I will update again soon.

 

It was all Lyin' Ted's fault that Trump lost last night.

 

Donald J. Trump withstood the onslaught of the establishment yet again. Lyin’ Ted Cruz had the Governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts, and the entire party apparatus behind him. Not only was he propelled by the anti-Trump Super PAC’s spending countless millions of dollars on false advertising against Mr. Trump, but he was illegally coordinating with his own Super PAC’s (which is illegal) who totally control him. Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet he is a Trojan horse, being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump. We had total confidence that Mr. Trump will go on to win in New York, where he holds a substantial lead in all the polls, and beyond. Mr. Trump is the only candidate who can secure the delegates needed to win the Republican nomination and ultimately defeat Hillary Clinton, or whomever is the Democratic nominee, in order to Make America Great Again.

 

[Guest Droosy]

In my opinion, Cruz is way worse than Trump. Trump is a clown who changes his opinions and is, despite his rhetoric, quite pragmatic; whereas Cruz is a bigot and die-hard fundamentalist who should not be anywhere near to the buttons of atomic bombs.......and I don´t agree with Obama on many issues, but I think he is better than the whole crop of candidates, including both the Democrats and Republicans

[Phantom 2,533]

In my opinion, Cruz is way worse than Trump. Trump is a clown who changes his opinions and is, despite his rhetoric, quite pragmatic; whereas Cruz is a bigot and die-hard fundamentalist who should not be anywhere near to the buttons of atomic bombs.......and I don´t agree with Obama on many issues, but I think he is better than the whole crop of candidates, including both the Democrats and Republicans

 

Neither Ted Cruz, nor his staff are entirely with it. I think this headline just says it all

 

Ted Cruz's New Anti-Choice Group Is Headed by a Guy Who Thinks Abortion Caused the Drought

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

Ok, so where does Wisconsin leave us? Cruz and Bernie won! The races on both sides are reinvigorated!! Not really.

 

On the Republican side, Cruz's victory was significant. For the first time, Donald Trump was properly defeated. He lost among groups he has never lost with before. More significantly, the scale of Cruz's victory and the number of delegates he accrued means that it is now extremely unlikely that any Republican candidate will receive the required 1237 delegates before they get to the convention in Cleveland. This would mean the first brokered Republican convention since 1976, the first convention that is likely to go beyond a first ballot since 1948 and, assuming a) Trump goes into the convention with the most delegates and Trump is not the Republican presidential nominee, it will be the first Republican convention since 1940 to nominate a candidate who did not have the most delegates after the first ballot. All of this should make for unusually riveting television and will likely cause a huge schism in the Republican party which should be virtually impossible to repair in the 4 short months before election day.

 

On the Democratic side, Sanders is successfully slowing Clinton's march to the nomination and arguably gathering some momentum of his own (even though many of the states he has won are not traditional Democratic states and no sod lives in them - see: Idaho, Alaska...) The problem Bernie has is that in true 'Democratic' style, every single primary on their side awards delegates proportionally according to their percentage of vote state-wide (no delegates awarded to the winner, or per congressional district, etc.) and as a result he needs big wins to eat into Clinton's delegate lead (as an example, last night he won 57-43 in Wisconsin but this only translated to 48-38 in terms of delegates: a net gain of 10). His other issue is the only places he's getting these big results in award virtually no delegates. The last 5 states he has won - Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii and Wisconsin - have netted Bernie in the region of 110 delegates more than Hillary. But Florida, Ohio and Mississippi (all in the past month) gave Hillary 115 delegates more than him in return. Put simply, he runs up the score in places where there are 40 delegates on offer, and she wins by sizeable enough margins in places offering 100+ delegates. CNN did some maths last night and said if Bernie was to win EVERY contest between now and the convention at a margin of 55-45 (he won't) then he still wouldn't catch Hillary in 'pledged' delegates (the ones awarded by the states). Plus she is massively supported by the 'superdelegates' (significant party figures who are free to vote for whomever they like). Bernie's campaign manager was saying last night that just like the Republicans, the Democrats are headed for a brokered convention as neither Bernie nor Hillary will likely have the required number of pledged delegates going into the convention (2383 for the Dems). While this is true, superdelegates will likely put Hillary over the top and furthermore, this is precisely the situation that Obama and Hillary were in in 2008, where party unity led to Clinton nominating Obama by 'acclamation' during the floor vote in that year's convention. Bernie's big hope is that he can do well in several remaining primaries, narrow the gap, finish strongly by winning by a decent margin in California (not out of the realms of possibility) and convince superdelegates that only he can guarantee a win in November and has the momentum from the primaries. Many see this as pie in the sky, not least because Sanders has only been a registered Democrat for about a year, and does not have the goodwill among the superdelegates that Clinton has to engender them to change their votes. I'll sit up and pay attention if he pulls off a win in New York in 2 weeks time, but if Hillary wins there, and by a decent margin, then the Bernie Bounce is well and truly over once more.

 

Finally (and I apologise for yet another essay) I'd just like to reveal a couple of astonishing numbers that came out of CNN's exit polls in Wisconsin last night:

 

The Republican electorate were asked how they would feel if Ted Cruz or Donald Trump was elected president.

 

Cruz

Excited: 13%

Optimistic: 47%

Concerned: 25%

Scared: 12%

 

Overall: Excited/Optimistic: 50%, Concerned/Scared: 37% However, more significantly, 57% of Trump supporters felt concerned or scared about a Cruz presidency (meaning they'd presumably be unlikely to vote for him).

 

Trump

Excited: 23%

Optimistic: 18%

Concerned: 20%

Scared: 38%

 

Overall: Excited/Optimistic: 41%, Concerned/Scared: 58% Again, more significantly, 72% (yes SEVENTY-TWO as the old football videprinter would say) of Cruz supporters feel concerned or scared of a Trump presidency.

 

Republicans were asked: If Clinton and Trump are the nominees in November, how would you vote?

 

Clinton: 10% (!!)

Trump: 61% (!!!!!)

Third Party: 18%

Not Vote: 8%

 

26% of Republicans would essentially rather waste their vote than vote for Donald Trump. 10% would vote for the Antichrist!!! (aka Hillary Rodham Clinton)

 

If Clinton and Cruz are the nominees in November, how would you vote?

 

Clinton: 6%

Cruz: 66%

Third Party: 18%

Not Vote: 5%

 

The results are virtually identical! This illustrates my point about the schism in the Republican party. A third of Republicans won't vote for Trump under any circumstances. A third of Republicans won't vote for Cruz under any circumstances. They are the only two likely Republican nominees. The next six months promise to be fascinating to watch. Apologies again about the essay, but hopefully somebody finds this stuff useful/interesting.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Today are the Democratic caucuses in Wyoming.

 

The state has demographics similar to Idaho, Alaska, etc.

 

So Bernie is obviously expected to win.

[RadGuy 1,614]

BERNIE WINS WYOMING CAUCUS.

 

Reason to celebrate for him?

 

No, reason to cry!

 

He ONLY got 56%...

 

The demographics were almost exactly like Alaska and Idaho, both of which he won by around 80%.

 

14 delegates most likely split 7-7 between him and Hillary.

 

This was his chance to gain some delegates on Hillary (albeit few) and he blew it.