Thoughts On The 2017 List

[Book 3,552]

20 hours ago, jackschlotter said:

15/50 would be a new record.

 

You're right. Thanks, my bad.

No Peter Sallis this year then

[ebless 203]

My updated verdict for the 2017 list with Noakes gone. 

 

Almost certain: Tony Booth, Gord Downie, King Michael of Romania, Nobby Stiles, Glen Campbell and Errol Christie.

 

In real danger but may make to 2018: Kirk Douglas, Billy Graham, Peter Sallis, Olivia De Haviland, Herman Wouk, Leslie Phillips, Jill Gascoine, Ian St John, Bruce Forsyth, Hosni Mubarak, Desmond Tutu, Liz Dawn, Valerie Harper, Emperor Akhito, Leah Bracknell, George Bush Sr

 

Will they won't they?: Lord Carrington, Duke of Edinburgh, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Bob Dole, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Javier Perez De Cueller, Jake Lamotta, Doug Ellis, Hugh Hefner, David Prowse, Sandy Gall, Pope Benedict, Fats Domino, Gay Byrne, Vera Lynn

 

Little chance: Stan Lee, Betty White, Honor Blackman, Queen Elizabeth II, Jerry Lewis, Bob Barker

[Joey Russ 7,220]

I'm liking their chances tbh.

[CoffinLodger 1,248]

Well we have 5 hits in 5 months so we're on course to  at least get  a dozen by years end at the current rate . Let's hope Robert Mugabe is among them!

 

PS really weird that all 5 hits are on the bottom h alf of the list. First time that's ever happened. There has to be a hit from the top half some time soon surely ?!

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

I don't think we'll have a new record. It's becoming evident that we will have a few certs survive until 2018 (Bracknell and Downie) and that some of the too famous to lose are still active (Queen, Phillips). I think we can get anywhere from 12-13 hits.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

3 minutes ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

I don't think we'll have a new record. It's becoming evident that we will have a few certs survive until 2018 (Bracknell and Downie) and that some of the too famous to lose are still active (Queen, Phillips). I think we can get anywhere from 12-13 hits.

I think it'll be more like 2009, where all the certs die, but it won't happen till the later months. There were 6 certs in 2009, and while Llewellyn and Richards died early on, the others hanged on until around August and September. Plus, there is a thing called taking a turn for the worse, and I have a feeling Downie and Bracknell will take that turn in, say, July or August (which is why I regret not putting Bracknell on my DDP team ). But that's just my thoughts.  

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

2 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I think it'll be more like 2009, where all the certs die, but it won't happen till the later months. There were 6 certs in 2009, and while Llewellyn and Richards died early on, the others hanged on until around August and September. Plus, there is a thing called taking a turn for the worse, and I have a feeling Downie and Bracknell will take that turn in, say, July or August (which is why I regret not putting Bracknell on my DDP team ). But that's just my thoughts.  

Even when they take a turn for the worst it can take months for them to finish the turn, as we saw with Patrick Swayze in 2009. If they go in 2017, Downie will go in October or November and Bracknell will go in December.

[Sean 6,314]

We are onto 5 and as has been pointed out none of the dead certs have gone yet.

[msc 18,438]

13 minutes ago, Shaun of the Dead said:

We are onto 5 and as has been pointed out none of the dead certs have gone yet.

 

Nor have any of the old long timers. It's been one new old guy, one MND death, and 3 "frail and ill 50/50ers".

 

Law of averages dictates at least one or two of the regulars will go before December 31st.

[Joey Russ 7,220]

With Christie on the way out, I think we can eliminate a 2014 repeat.

[Sean 6,314]

We are getting the record this year!Mark my word! 

[Deathtreat23 189]

Yep it's a case of any day now with Christie from the look of things- what has been interesting so far this year (as has been pointed out else where) is the amount of bottom ended people on the list which have gone.

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

Valerie Harper, Liz Dawn, Gay Byrne, and Desmond Tutu are shaking.

[Sean 6,314]

2 minutes ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

Valerie Harper, Liz Dawn, Gay Byrne, and Desmond Tutu are shaking.

Michael J Fox has the same problem.

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

Just now, Shaun of the Dead said:

Michael J Fox has the same problem.

Billy Graham too

[Sean 6,314]

5 minutes ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

Billy Graham too

I was thinking if anyone on the list had parkinsons and forgot old Billy.

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

Just now, Shaun of the Dead said:

I was thinking if anyone on the list had parkinsons and forgot old Billy.

Glen Campbell forgot about old Billy too.

[Toast 16,131]

So did Peter Falk.

[FixedBusiness 407]

5 hours ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

Glen Campbell forgot about old Billy too.

Gord Downie too.

[Zsa Zsa's leg 884]

1 hour ago, FixedBusiness said:

Gord Downie too.

Downie has cancer?

[FixedBusiness 407]

2 hours ago, Zsa Zsa's leg said:

Downie has cancer?

Successful troll #981

[Sean 6,314]

On 4/17/2017 at 23:49, Shaun of the Dead said:

I wouldnt give Campbell Sallis and Philips a 90% probability.Campbell has advanced dementia but he could go on for years potentially although that is unlikely.Sallis is very old but aside from macular degeneration we have no idea how is health is.He was always private so could just be enjoying a quiet retirement.Also being elderly with sight problems means he is unlikely to go out in public and be snapped by the press.My guess is that he is in Denville hall or Brinsworth house as he is extremely elderly widowed and has lost at least a substantial amount of sight.I am surprised he is still going but he isnt a dead cert by any means.Phillips likewise is very old but is known to be very frail after a stroke.Sure his quality of life iscompromised but he is not a dead cert.Bracknell Christie and Downie all have extremely lethal forms of cancer whereas King Michael has two types of cancer that have left him very frail according to reports.Treatment complications or the cancer itself could very well kill him as could the fact he is well in his 90s.

I was right Sallis was in Denville Hall!!!!!!

[ebless 203]

My updated verdict for the 2017 list with Sallis gone. 

 

Almost certain: Tony Booth, Gord Downie, King Michael of Romania, Nobby Stiles, Glen Campbell and Errol Christie.

 

In real danger but may make to 2018: Kirk Douglas, Billy Graham, Olivia De Haviland, Herman Wouk, Leslie Phillips, Jill Gascoine, Ian St John, Bruce Forsyth, Hosni Mubarak, Desmond Tutu, Liz Dawn, Valerie Harper, Emperor Akhito, Leah Bracknell, George Bush Sr

 

Will they won't they?: Lord Carrington, Duke of Edinburgh, Denis Norden, Pierre Cardin, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Javier Perez De Cueller, Jake Lamotta, Doug Ellis, Hugh Hefner, David Prowse, Sandy Gall, Pope Benedict, Fats Domino, Gay Byrne, Vera Lynn

 

Little chance: Stan Lee, Betty White, Honor Blackman, Queen Elizabeth II, Jerry Lewis, Bob Barker, Bob Dole

[Davey Jones' Locker 1,324]

On 2017-5-16 at 01:35, Book said:

No Peter Sallis this year then

[Book 3,552]

1 hour ago, Davey Jones' Locker said:

Yes. Damn