The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[gcreptile 10,979]

 

TJS also didn't have Wetton (surprising to me)

 

Yeah, I was in the same boat as you in thinking "well, he's a solid pick but I can't see him making the Drop 40, and I'm having trouble finding room for him..." Early days, though, so I still think I got a fighting chance.

 

It's a lesson for me to always remember the "Christodoulos rule" I spotted when compiling the retrospective Drop 40s - ie, if a name is championed nonstop on the forums, as Wetton was by Weebl, assume they have a chance of making the cut.

 

Or Morbidkid with Stefansson, I was unaware that he had meme status on the internet.

[Death Impends 8,005]

 

 

TJS also didn't have Wetton (surprising to me)

 

Yeah, I was in the same boat as you in thinking "well, he's a solid pick but I can't see him making the Drop 40, and I'm having trouble finding room for him..." Early days, though, so I still think I got a fighting chance.

 

It's a lesson for me to always remember the "Christodoulos rule" I spotted when compiling the retrospective Drop 40s - ie, if a name is championed nonstop on the forums, as Wetton was by Weebl, assume they have a chance of making the cut.

 

Or Morbidkid with Stefansson, I was unaware that he had meme status on the internet.

 

 

Have to admit it's a missed opportunity that Obscura Camera, a theme team of memes and obscure people, didn't pick him.

[drol 11,979]

Stefan Karl will cheat you! All of you!

 

*two hours later he's dead*

[drol 11,979]

I have a feeling Dmitri Hvorostovski and Scott Hamilton will be both alive in 2018. That's not the year of brain cancer. Don't ask me why and I did not assume any psychedelic substance to say that.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

Did you put points for Hurt in for I will not die...

[gcreptile 10,979]

Probably. I'm not at home to check. But I've increased Hurt's chance of dying to 100%. The Excel formulas should do the rest. That would explain his/her entry into the scoreboard.

[gcreptile 10,979]

Update for Joost, (and Gordon Aikman, but Shaun isn't quite up there...yet), Paul McGill's obitability now at 5%.

 

People who picked Joost get quite the boost... as I only had his chance of dying in 2017 at 60%, but with his high base score, his death gains people 0,4*13=5,2 points. The 60% chance was my thought that he was slightly past the average life expectancy of people with ALS. Also, the higher probabilities are mostly reserved for terminal cancer people and those in a coma and declining.

 

1. The Love Boat (156,12) (back on top with a third hit)

2. Golden Slumbers (155,32) (climbing, and climbing, to the top - five hits now)

3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (154,72)

4. Day in the Death (153,71)

5. Thomas Jefferson Survives (153,11)

6. Still Life (147,01)

7. To Kill a Gabor Sister (146,74)

8. Pan Breed (144,79)

9. Garn2 (144,41)

10. Dead Ends (144,0375)

11. New Years and Drinks All Night (143,95)

12. Droller Coaster (141,78)

13. I will not die, it's the world that will end (140,43)

14. I'm sorry for your trouble (139,75)

15. The Living End (139,33)

 

The first two teams now surpass the previous points record. But, as a reminder, I will reduce expected scores a couple of times as people "run out of time to die". Maybe once every quarter. We have yet to see any of the gambles NOT paying off. But this early in the year, the only possibility of failure is not obiting.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

Latching onto the top 5. Know I'm probably going to slowly fall though...

[Switch 141]

Out of curiosity, what is the currently expected score and place for Dead as a Doornail?

[gcreptile 10,979]

Out of curiosity, what is the currently expected score and place for Dead as a Doornail?

Not in my list yet... Look at this post in 20 minutes and I'll know. Edit: Yes, you'll do well.

 

Edit: It's 132,73 pts.

 

I have relatively low scores for Pete Frates, Helen Fawkes and Charles Bradley. And if, for example, Frates dies, you'll get a boost of 12,8 pts.

[Bert Trautmann 58]

It's been a good start; Joost and McGiffin in particular I didn't expect to go so soon.

 

DQSP and TJS still have the strongest teams in my opinion and will eventually pull clear.

 

Even though I've had 5 hits, I think the DDP has reached a point where even an actual hit may turn out to be a bad pick. I think that will turn out to be the case with 5 point Mario Soares. I would probably swap him out for Stefan Karl in hindsight, someone I didn't think would make the Drop 40.

 

For me to have a real shot I think most if not all of Golmard (annual traditional punt), Forsyth, Cryne, King Michael, Ricketts and Magill will need to pop off.

 

Ultimately i think deciding against Stefan Karl, Gilbert and Meads + failing to spot Briggs and Elias will see me falling back into the pack.

 

But hopefully I'll be able to enjoy the view for a little while...

[Joey Russ 7,229]

I wonder how long I can hang onto the top 5 before I fall off...

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

I wonder how long I can hang onto the top 5 before I fall off...

Should we have a poll?

[gcreptile 10,979]

Well Joey, this scoreboard is designed to reduce unexpected leaderboard changes. It is very, very unlikely that you drop out of the Top Five because lots of other people suddenly surpass your score. The only somewhat likely way you drop out, is when your cancer celebrities don't obit. But your margin to sixth place is enough to overcome Aspin's not-obiting. In short, you're only out if Ben Suisala doesn't obit.

[msc 18,480]

Well Joey, this scoreboard is designed to reduce unexpected leaderboard changes. It is very, very unlikely that you drop out of the Top Five because lots of other people suddenly surpass your score. The only somewhat likely way you drop out, is when your cancer celebrities don't obit. But your margin to sixth place is enough to overcome Aspin's not-obiting. In short, you're only out if Ben Suisala doesn't obit.

 

Using my own method - counting by points - I had him finish 4th last night, which backs that up. Although, it had Spade finishing 7th, so naturally I am rather skeptical about those particular findings.

[gcreptile 10,979]

Update, with Sumner dead, Aspin's obitability reduced to 5%, and a new team: Deceased Hose. He/She is tied for second in the current "real" scoreboard, so I checked, and yes, the team belongs here (11th place). Also, I've only just realised that Garn2's team is "Poochie died...":

 

1. Golden Slumbers (159,96)

2. The Love Boat (156,12)

3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (154,72)

4. Thomas Jefferson Survives (153,11)

5. Day in the Death (151,73)

6. Still Life (151,65)

7. To Kill a Gabor Sister (151,38)

8. Poochie died on the way back to his home planet (149,05)

9. Dead Ends (148,6775)

10. Pan Breed (147,45)

11. Deceased Hose (147,18)

12. Droller Coaster (146,42)

13. I will not die, it's the world that will end (145,07)

14. The Living End (143,97)

15. New Years and Drinks All Night (143,95)

 

Golden Slumbers is pulling ahead with the death of Sumner. His team is also fairly riskless, so if he gets beaten, it will happen because of what he already said: Mario Soares might turn out to be a bad pick, because he's only worth 5pts. Golden Slumbers' total possible score out of 20 possible hits is "only" 204, as compared to, say, 214 of DQSP. So DQSP has one mulligan. If Golden Slumbers gets 18 hits (say, Golmard and Cryne not dying), DQSP may need only 16 or 17 hits to beat him. Golden Slumbers will be beaten if, and probably only if, this year becomes another record year with several people at 15+ hits, and new score records.

[drol 11,979]

Update, with Sumner dead, Aspin's obitability reduced to 5%, and a new team: Deceased Hose. He is tied for second in the current "real" scoreboard, so I checked, and yes, the team belongs here (11th place). Also, I've only just realised that Garn2's team is "Poochie died...":

 

1. Golden Slumbers (159,96)

2. The Love Boat (156,12)

3. David Quantick's Showbiz Pals (154,72)

4. Thomas Jefferson Survives (153,11)

5. Day in the Death (151,73)

6. Still Life (151,65)

7. To Kill a Gabor Sister (151,38)

8. Poochie died on the way back to his home planet (149,05)

9. Dead Ends (148,6775)

10. Pan Breed (147,45)

11. Deceased Hose (147,18)

12. Droller Coaster (146,42)

13. I will not die, it's the world that will end (145,07)

14. The Living End (143,97)

15. New Years and Drinks All Night (143,95)

 

Golden Slumbers is pulling ahead with the death of Sumner. His team is also fairly riskless, so if he gets beaten, it will happen because of what he already said: Mario Soares might turn out to be a bad pick, because he's only worth 5pts. Golden Slumbers' total possible score out of 20 possible hits is "only" 204, as compared to, say, 214 of DQSP. So DQSP has one mulligan. If Golden Slumbers gets 18 hits (say, Golmard and Cryne not dying), DQSP may need only 16 or 17 hits to beat him. Golden Slumbers will be beaten if, and probably only if, this year becomes another record year with several people at 15+ hits, and new score records.

Deceased Hose is deadsox's team. Anyway, damn Joost, you had me out of the top ten!

[Death Impends 8,005]

One tricky thing I've realized is I'll need both GS and DQSP to do very well if I'm to have a chance of winning.

 

Reason - I noticed from the getgo that I have a lot of names in common with Spade - only seven differentials. I checked and my differentials combined are worth two points more than his. In theory, if I sweep the board on the seven names I have that he doesn't, along with hitting my joker, Spade would need to have one of his differential picks die on their birthday, or of unnatural causes, to surpass me. But four of these differentials I have - Michael, Ricketts, already-dead Joost, and Van-Zandvliet, are also on Bert's team. So in turn I'll also need to benefit from the likes of Elias, Meads, Stefansson, and Bradley.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

Still hanging on to the top 5 despite Aspin's reduced obitality.

[rockhopper penguin 2,265]

Aspin's 'benefit' is tomorrow. Check Manchester Evening Nazi and Oldham Chronicle on Monday - last chance i'd say.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

I agree. Don't think it'll be likely, but he's not my most important punt anyways...

[gcreptile 10,979]

One tricky thing I've realized is I'll need both GS and DQSP to do very well if I'm to have a chance of winning.

 

Reason - I noticed from the getgo that I have a lot of names in common with Spade - only seven differentials. I checked and my differentials combined are worth two points more than his. In theory, if I sweep the board on the seven names I have that he doesn't, along with hitting my joker, Spade would need to have one of his differential picks die on their birthday, or of unnatural causes, to surpass me. But four of these differentials I have - Michael, Ricketts, already-dead Joost, and Van-Zandvliet, are also on Bert's team. So in turn I'll also need to benefit from the likes of Elias, Meads, Stefansson, and Bradley.

Once again, all the "contenders" are connected through a canon of about 20 people all picked by at least half of them. GS is pretty much in the middle of this web, so yes, it's the "outstanding" picks that need to come through for the others.

 

I wonder where the two-point differential is coming from, as I have you both at max. 214pts. Maybe Jagraj Singh? It was hard to me to find his age, I think it was 28 or 29. Though I guess he's older?

[The Dead Cow 620]

I agree. Don't think it'll be likely, but he's not my most important punt anyways...

 

Yes, I think we've both been stupid with our choice of joker and I bet with the same reasoning too, the hope that they would be unique.

 

I could have easily put one of Joost/Sims/Downie/Bracknell/Christie as my joker, all would have been worth more points than Kobayashi and all were more certain to die/obit. Yet, for some reason, I took a risk for the reward of less points...

 

I still think my team is strong enough for a top 10 finish, possibly top 5 if Kobayashi does turn out to be a hit, but my chances of winning have been thwarted by my unwise decisions.

[msc 18,480]

 

One tricky thing I've realized is I'll need both GS and DQSP to do very well if I'm to have a chance of winning.

 

Reason - I noticed from the getgo that I have a lot of names in common with Spade - only seven differentials. I checked and my differentials combined are worth two points more than his. In theory, if I sweep the board on the seven names I have that he doesn't, along with hitting my joker, Spade would need to have one of his differential picks die on their birthday, or of unnatural causes, to surpass me. But four of these differentials I have - Michael, Ricketts, already-dead Joost, and Van-Zandvliet, are also on Bert's team. So in turn I'll also need to benefit from the likes of Elias, Meads, Stefansson, and Bradley.

Once again, all the "contenders" are connected through a canon of about 20 people all picked by at least half of them. GS is pretty much in the middle of this web, so yes, it's the "outstanding" picks that need to come through for the others.

 

I wonder where the two-point differential is coming from, as I have you both at max. 214pts. Maybe Jagraj Singh? It was hard to me to find his age, I think it was 28 or 29. Though I guess he's older?

 

 

He's in his 30s. Started secondary in 1990 according to Linkedin.

[gcreptile 10,979]

 

 

One tricky thing I've realized is I'll need both GS and DQSP to do very well if I'm to have a chance of winning.

 

Reason - I noticed from the getgo that I have a lot of names in common with Spade - only seven differentials. I checked and my differentials combined are worth two points more than his. In theory, if I sweep the board on the seven names I have that he doesn't, along with hitting my joker, Spade would need to have one of his differential picks die on their birthday, or of unnatural causes, to surpass me. But four of these differentials I have - Michael, Ricketts, already-dead Joost, and Van-Zandvliet, are also on Bert's team. So in turn I'll also need to benefit from the likes of Elias, Meads, Stefansson, and Bradley.

Once again, all the "contenders" are connected through a canon of about 20 people all picked by at least half of them. GS is pretty much in the middle of this web, so yes, it's the "outstanding" picks that need to come through for the others.

 

I wonder where the two-point differential is coming from, as I have you both at max. 214pts. Maybe Jagraj Singh? It was hard to me to find his age, I think it was 28 or 29. Though I guess he's older?

 

 

He's in his 30s. Started secondary in 1990 according to Linkedin.

 

Ah ok, I saw some video of him walking on the street teaching people about Sikhism and he was around 28 then. But honestly, I'm not only going to reduce his base score (from 12 to 10), but also his obitability, because the year of birth needs to be known? Who knows if that Guardian brother will mention it...

 

Edit: Though maybe that's a mistake, because the year of birth could be given by a non-qualifying obit.