The Rolling Probabilistic Ddp Scoreboard

[gcreptile 10,982]

5 minutes ago, viGnoS said:

I don't understand how you are calculating the "expected score" ? is that based on a "dying probability" ??

some expected score are over base point so their dying probability are over 100% ? sounds crazy !

The formula from Excel:

=WENN(A7="dead";"dead";(H7+3*K7+3*L7+3*M7)*I7*J7) This is the Excel formula.

 

Wenn = if

H7 = points for age, K7 = probability of a unique hit, L7 = probability of unnatural death, M7 = probability of Drop 40 bonus., I7 = probabiity of dying in 2018, J7= probability of a QO.

 

I'm actually not quite happy with the formula because people still get a score even if I don't know their age (the cell is empty, but because of the bonus factors, they still get an expected score). There must be something better.

[viGnoS 18]

so maybe try a formula like that ? age unknow => score of 0

 

=IF(A7="dead";"dead";IF(H7>0;(H7+3*K7+3*L7+3*M7)*I7*J7;0))

 

amazing work of you if you are maintaining all these probabilities for probably hundreds of people !

[Grim Up North 3,727]

9 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

The formula from Excel:

=WENN(A7="dead";"dead";(H7+3*K7+3*L7+3*M7)*I7*J7) This is the Excel formula.

 

Wenn = if

H7 = points for age, K7 = probability of a unique hit, L7 = probability of unnatural death, M7 = probability of Drop 40 bonus., I7 = probabiity of dying in 2018, J7= probability of a QO.

 

I'm actually not quite happy with the formula because people still get a score even if I don't know their age (the cell is empty, but because of the bonus factors, they still get an expected score). There must be something better.

 

It's a shame you are male - we could have had beautiful babies!

[gcreptile 10,982]

20 minutes ago, viGnoS said:

so maybe try a formula like that ? age unknow => score of 0

 

=IF(A7="dead";"dead";IF(H7>0;(H7+3*K7+3*L7+3*M7)*I7*J7;0))

 

amazing work of you if you are maintaining all these probabilities for probably hundreds of people !

Yes, that is an easy solution. But I would love to have it all somehow in one calculation, not two IF-formulas.

 

That work looks impressive, but it is actually not that much work, because the formula is always the same. I just have to give probabilities for each new name on my longlist, and while it's a bit of a crude method, it also orders things and makes it easier. For example, I could order the column "probability of dying" from highest to lowest and get good names if obitability and age can be ignored = good for The Hare's deadpool for example.

The first test of this method was my entry for the Generation Game and it worked very well.

 

Edit:

If I have time, and to be honest, the next 4-5 months don't look too well, I will try to refine my table. I need some kind of system to order things even more. I began last month to add an "needs to be watched" criterion. I have to see where this goes. In the end, it shall save time, not make more time. I won't have the necessary time to do well in the Deathlist Cup if I don't find a way to simplify things.

[msc 18,489]

20 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

The formula from Excel:

=WENN(A7="dead";"dead";(H7+3*K7+3*L7+3*M7)*I7*J7) This is the Excel formula.

 

Wenn = if

H7 = points for age, K7 = probability of a unique hit, L7 = probability of unnatural death, M7 = probability of Drop 40 bonus., I7 = probabiity of dying in 2018, J7= probability of a QO.

 

I'm actually not quite happy with the formula because people still get a score even if I don't know their age (the cell is empty, but because of the bonus factors, they still get an expected score). There must be something better.

 

...

 

Ever walked into a thread and felt like you've had a stroke or something? That's me.

 

[Death Impends 8,008]

I only learned about IFs (along with VLOOKUP and various other Excel functions) last year in a career training course with the Microsoft suite. Making oneself use Excel in a casual environment is a nice upside for me having deadpooling as a hobby. So I do stuff like using VLOOKUP to determine DDP base points, albeit I do no calculations for Drop 40/unique chances.

 

(I'm glad I learned about those functions before I took stewardship of the Inverse Dead Pool, I'll run it a lot more smoothly with that knowledge than if I didn't know Excel...)

[gcreptile 10,982]

15 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

I only learned about IFs (along with VLOOKUP and various other Excel functions) last year in a career training course with the Microsoft suite. Making oneself use Excel in a casual environment is a nice upside for me having deadpooling as a hobby. So I do stuff like using VLOOKUP to determine DDP base points, albeit I do no calculations for Drop 40/unique chances.

 

(I'm glad I learned about those functions before I took stewardship of the Inverse Dead Pool, I'll run it a lot more smoothly with that knowledge than if I didn't know Excel...)

I use Excel a lot at work, I had to learn quite a bit in a short time actually. Then I wanted to see if I could use it here. It actually can make things easier if you know how.

 

However: A DDP team only consists of 20 names, and a set of 20 is not that much in statistics. It's like playing roulette and you bet on red and win two times, maybe three times in a row. Or you play 10 times and win 10 times in a row, it happens. But if you play over and over again, and always bet on red, you will most likely win only 50% of all times (actually slightly less because of the zero). So my method works better with larger teams. A set of 20 is exactly on the border of usefulness. The bigger the team, the better it works. With only 20 names, someone with more medical knowledge, or inside information, or just with the necessary experience will still win.

[YoungWillz 21,078]

 

 

[Sir Creep 7,070]

14 hours ago, viGnoS said:

so maybe try a formula like that ? age unknow => score of 0

 

=IF(A7="dead";"dead";IF(H7>0;(H7+3*K7+3*L7+3*M7)*I7*J7;0))

 

amazing work of you if you are maintaining all these probabilities for probably hundreds of people !

The whole 'unique hit' effort has been totally neutered by having an equal bonus for THE EXACT OPPOSITE, a Drop 40 pick.  It's retarded I know, but the powers that be made it so a year ago.  It rewards laziness and takes almost all incentive from finding hidden gems.   There are still going to be a number of us who like the chance to thump our chests over a unique hit, and so will throw a couple names out there each year. But your equation that includes any particular value to a unique hit simply isn't necessary, and in fact if one spent more time researching the health of the probabilistic Drop 40 candidates and pinpointing those picks, then 'time is money' would factor into your equation and you are wasting lots of time finding hidden gems vs picking the correct Drop 40s, and are actually a detriment to your overall selections.
SCreep

[gcreptile 10,982]

8 hours ago, Sir Creep said:

The whole 'unique hit' effort has been totally neutered by having an equal bonus for THE EXACT OPPOSITE, a Drop 40 pick.  It's retarded I know, but the powers that be made it so a year ago.  It rewards laziness and takes almost all incentive from finding hidden gems.   There are still going to be a number of us who like the chance to thump our chests over a unique hit, and so will throw a couple names out there each year. But your equation that includes any particular value to a unique hit simply isn't necessary, and in fact if one spent more time researching the health of the probabilistic Drop 40 candidates and pinpointing those picks, then 'time is money' would factor into your equation and you are wasting lots of time finding hidden gems vs picking the correct Drop 40s, and are actually a detriment to your overall selections.
SCreep

I think you are right that there is a winning team that consists exclusively of Drop 40 picks. But unique picks still have the same value. I don't calculate an effort/reward ratio.

[gcreptile 10,982]

I have begun to calculate a couple of scores.

 

I will do so slowly, researching so many new names is exhausting.

 

Again, I probably have a bias towards my own team because, after all, the score was an influence on my picks. 

 

So far I have:

The Love Boat - 152,464 (the score is a little higher than on the previous page because Thomas Monson has died!)

drollercoaster - 143,6315

Thomas Jefferson Survives - 150,556 - I think Laura Barry is a huge gamble. If she is a hit, the expected score climbs by up to 12pts. I give her an expected score of "only" 3,00. A new pick to me, so judgement may be rushed... I couldn't find out what's wrong with Cynthia Heimel - location issue? Her silence on twitter is ominous though.

The Living End - 144,808 - I love your pick of Gerard Basset - classy. I didn't know about him. Though his people are all so very optimistic right now. Let's see...

To Kill a Gabor Sister - 149,448 - safe and sound team, reminds me of the Death Impends from 2-3 years ago

Still Life - 154,021 - As you can see, top score. So some more detailed thoughts: Jessica Falkholt and Ian Toothill: high-scoring but slightly risky picks. In spring, we know if Still Life is on course to win or if these gambles failed and the team is falling behind. Mike Willesee: I don't have hm with such a high score even though I picked him myself for my theme team. Still, for a "weakest pick", it's still quite strong. Bernard Tapie was the last one I kicked out of my teams. Will be interesting how he does....

I'm sorry for your trouble - 133,628 - I have no idea how bad Stirling Moss and Robin Herd actually are. If they die, the score jumps quite a bit.

Day in the Death 2018 - 148,902 - base points are 218, so actually the highest (for now). (Love Boat at 215, TJS at 216) I have Jacqui Forster as a unique (12 base points). 60% dying, 80% obiting. 60% unique chance.

 

post-Rayya Elias:

Carkers Convention 2018 - 129,5705 - another one with Robin Herd, hmm.. Colin Baddiel: my deadpooling experience with Pick's disease is exactly 1 - Colin Baddiel. Apart from that, I saw how much emphasis MPFC puts on obitability. I think he can get riskier...

Pan Breed - 141,744 - Carl Piddington is an addition to my "best possible team" on the previous page. Pete Stokes is not such a bad pick. Either he dies after his pupil has become world champion, or he dies before the fight and gets a shout-out from his pupil during the WC fight - which is then hopefully reported by the press. If these two are unique hits, this team can compensate for not having Marieke Vervoort on it.

The End of The World As We Know It - 115,985

Going Underground - 110,34725 - I had them all on my longlist already, including David DiChiera and Lil Wayne (certainly a plausible pick). But the joker Linda Nolan isn't scoring so well with me.

Sovereign Reaper - 130,327 - Sleeper team... 

Poochie Died on the Way Back to his Home Planet - 145,5165

Here's who you could have won - 107,938 - I had to guess that Kevin McAllister was in his mid 50s....

Bobby Zarin's Mack The Knifed - 83,528 - a couple of wonderful names, can see why they are in the second team though.

2019 - no thank you, I'll leave before! - 113,95 - Richard Buckley really DOES look hideous....

Shaun of the Dead 69 - 144,219 - A month ago, I predicted a Top Ten team from Sean, could well happen....

DDP Tofoa - 140,054 - getting better with each year!

Life goes by so fast! - 128,5475 - new record with 219 base points

Heading Nowhere - 136,9195 - Blackie Dammett is an interesting pick. Very interesting team.

drunkasaskunk - 125,625 - shameless team ;).

GUN away - 147,5025, GUN fishing a point lower.

The Whipping Posts - 82,3555 - base score is 180.

 

[Joey Russ 7,233]

Not sure when my base score will be known, but I suspect it’ll be quite low compared to everyone else...

[Death Impends 8,008]

I have no clue what's wrong with Heimel either. I picked her due to some other tweeter saying she was unwell, on top of the Twitter silence, yes. Going from a few tweets a month for years to nothing since April is ominous.

 

(additionally, for a few years she was a columnist for the Village Voice, where Wayne Barrett spent most of his career. I sometimes like to include someone with ties to a previous hit, like picking Charles Bradley after Sharon Jones was a success )

[msc 18,489]

8 minutes ago, Death Impends said:

I have no clue what's wrong with Heimel either.

 

I must say that's reassuring to hear from a deadpool rival about one of their own picks!

[themaninblack 2,112]

23 hours ago, gcreptile said:

I use Excel a lot at work, I had to learn quite a bit in a short time actually. Then I wanted to see if I could use it here. It actually can make things easier if you know how.

 

However: A DDP team only consists of 20 names, and a set of 20 is not that much in statistics. It's like playing roulette and you bet on red and win two times, maybe three times in a row. Or you play 10 times and win 10 times in a row, it happens. But if you play over and over again, and always bet on red, you will most likely win only 50% of all times (actually slightly less because of the zero). So my method works better with larger teams. A set of 20 is exactly on the border of usefulness. The bigger the team, the better it works. With only 20 names, someone with more medical knowledge, or inside information, or just with the necessary experience will still win.

 

23 hours ago, Death Impends said:

I only learned about IFs (along with VLOOKUP and various other Excel functions) last year in a career training course with the Microsoft suite. Making oneself use Excel in a casual environment is a nice upside for me having deadpooling as a hobby. So I do stuff like using VLOOKUP to determine DDP base points, albeit I do no calculations for Drop 40/unique chances.

 

(I'm glad I learned about those functions before I took stewardship of the Inverse Dead Pool, I'll run it a lot more smoothly with that knowledge than if I didn't know Excel...)

Me and Spade at this point:

[Joey Russ 7,233]

On 1/3/2018 at 16:06, gcreptile said:

I have begun to calculate a couple of scores.

 

I will do so slowly, researching so many new names is exhausting.

 

Again, I probably have a bias towards my own team because, after all, the score was an influence on my picks. 

 

So far I have:

The Love Boat - 152,464 (the score is a little higher than on the previous page because Thomas Monson has died!)

drollercoaster - 143,6315

Thomas Jefferson Survives - 150,556 - I think Laura Barry is a huge gamble. If she is a hit, the expected score climbs by up to 12pts. I give her an expected score of "only" 3,00. A new pick to me, so judgement may be rushed... I couldn't find out what's wrong with Cynthia Heimel - location issue? Her silence on twitter is ominous though.

The Living End - 144,808 - I love your pick of Gerard Basset - classy. I didn't know about him. Though his people are all so very optimistic right now. Let's see...

To Kill a Gabor Sister - 149,448 - safe and sound team, reminds me of the Death Impends from 2-3 years ago

Still Life - 154,021 - As you can see, top score. So some more detailed thoughts: Jessica Falkholt and Ian Toothill: high-scoring but slightly risky picks. In spring, we know if Still Life is on course to win or if these gambles failed and the team is falling behind. Mike Willesee: I don't have hm with such a high score though I picked him myself for my theme team. Still, for a "weakest pick", it's still quite strong. Bernard Tapie was the last one I kicked out of my teams. Will be interesting how he does....

I'm sorry for your trouble - 133,628 - I have no idea how bad Stirling Moss and Robin Herd actually are. If they die, the score jumps quite a bit.

Day in the Death 2018 - 148,902 - base points are 218, so actually the highest (for now). (Love Boat at 215, TJS at 216) I have Jacqui Forster as a unique (12 base points). 60% dying, 80% obiting. 60% unique chance.

 

 

 

Presumably all of our scores increase after the demise of Elias. Not like it'll affect any of our placings (drol might be the exception since he jokered her...)

[gcreptile 10,982]

3 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Presumably all of our scores increase after the demise of Elias. Not like it'll affect any of our placings (drol might be the exception since he jokered her...)

Exactly. As you can see on the previous page, I had her with 7,53 expected points, already pretty high (wasn''t 100% sure she'd obit, and I very, very rarely assign a 100% probability of dying to anyone.). But now it increases to 9, so everyone's score increases by 1,47pts. Drol gets the effect twice, so 2,94pts more for him. If she makes the Drop 40 everyone gets an additional 3 pts, or even 6 for Drol.

 

I will update all scores Sunday or so, will do it step by step. MPFC and msc's teams are next (I have a feeling his B-team will score higher than the A-team).

[msc 18,489]

Hah it has a lot of 10 pointers which could build up, but they ARE on the B-side for a reason - many of them obit issues.

[drol 12,003]

I thought Elias was in her 40s ! But I also think she will be in the Drop 40 being a survivor of all major teams of last year (like Helen Fawkes).

[Sir Creep 7,070]

When putting my DDP team together for 2018, I compartmentalized for point purposes to determine my best route for success.
Under the header 'D40' I had the following: 
Dame Tessa Jowell / Leah Bracknell / John McCain / Rayya Elias / Greg Gilbert / Nobby Stiles / Jessica Falkholt / Merieke Vervoort / Goerge HW Bush.
Of those, I am saddened to see that a pile of non-believers that have descended upon DDP2018 who clearly will dismiss Falkholt -- and only Falkholt -- from this list.  I strategically went with her as my Joker , otherwise Bracknell was the clear option.  So as dismayed as I am, I fully expect all the aforementioned celebs to crack the Drop 40.

I was reluctant to put Devin Lima and/or Liam Miller in my D40 list, and they fell into the 'Young' category, i.e. potential point-grabs.  I honestly don't think either will perish in 2018, 2019 being a likely target date, but I kept them aboard moreso for defensive purposes.  That said, should either be Drop 40 I wouldn't be shocked.  (Same for Ami Brown who at 50 I put in my 'Young' list).

SC

Edit: To TMIB, how can you not account for unique and D40 points in your spreadsheet?  You HAVE to make those assumptions otherwise an 8-point unique  (+3) will ALWAYS lose out to a 9-point run of the mill non-Drop 40 pick.  It's all about roster construction (sorry for using fantasy football terms), you'll never win with 20 play-it-safes.  At some point Litsa Menounos (8 points potential 11) needs to be up against Jerry Remy (base of 8 points) and in a few instances you need to take chances.  Just my $0.02. 
Hey, it's your team, to each his/her own.   

[Death Impends 8,008]

14 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:

Edit: To TMIB, how can you not account for unique and D40 points in your spreadsheet?  You HAVE to make those assumptions otherwise an 8-point unique  (+3) will ALWAYS lose out to a 9-point run of the mill non-Drop 40 pick.  It's all about roster construction (sorry for using fantasy football terms), you'll never win with 20 play-it-safes.  At some point Litsa Menounos (8 points potential 11) needs to be up against Jerry Remy (base of 8 points) and in a few instances you need to take chances.  Just my $0.02. 

Hey, it's your team, to each his/her own.   

 

You mean me not TMIB? I do jot down in the notes "worth keeping track of as a likely Drop 40er" and whatnot. I just don't do any "60% chance of making the Drop 40" type formulas.

[Toast 16,158]

27 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:

 you'll never win with 20 play-it-safes

 

Perhaps not, but consider that some players may be aiming at a 100% hit rate.  IMBW, but I don't think this has been achieved on the DDP.

[msc 18,489]

2 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Perhaps not, but consider that some players may be aiming at a 100% hit rate.  IMBW, but I don't think this has been achieved on the DDP.

 

It never has, and I'm not sure it ever will.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Did you factor that all of Cancel My Appointments (sans Elias) are going to die on their respective birthdays? 

[Sir Creep 7,070]

24 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Perhaps not, but consider that some players may be aiming at a 100% hit rate.  IMBW, but I don't think this has been achieved on the DDP.

I thought we all were aiming at a 100% hit rate.