Shaun's Death By Numbers 2018

[YoungWillz 21,062]

I'm waiting on an outstanding obit...I'll let you know when it arrives.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

3 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

I'm waiting on an outstanding obit...I'll let you know when it arrives.

Who are you waiting on? 

[YoungWillz 21,062]

6 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Who are you waiting on? 

Baron Thomas of Macclesfield.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Only thing I know about Macclesfield is this unknown but awesome band.

 

[YoungWillz 21,062]

In the meantime, Lord Carrington is a hit for me here.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,346]

The passing of Nancy Sinatra senior is a 'hit' for me in this pool. 

[YoungWillz 21,062]

On ‎08‎/‎07‎/‎2018 at 16:44, YoungWillz said:

Baron Thomas of Macclesfield.

Lord Thomas finally gets his Telegraph Obit: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/obituaries/2018/07/16/lord-thomas-macclesfield-ethical-banker-obituary/

 

Double Lordage points with him and Carrington in the next update please.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Update #16

 

Hits:

1 July - Baron Thomas of Macclesfield (b. 1937) - YoungWillz

9 July - Lord Carrington (b. 1919) - YoungWillz, The Unknown Man, John Key

13 July - Laura Barry (b. 1993) - DeathImpends

13 July - Nancy Barbato Sinatra (b. 1917) - Gooseberry Crumble

 

Scoreboard:
gcreptile 968

DeathImpends 887

msc 812

CaptainChorizo 784

drol 737

Joey Russ 715
Grim Up North 695

Book 679

Sean 672

DevonDeathTrip 653

Prophet 620

FixedBusiness 458

Banana 412

The Unknown Man 357
Toast 319

Torva Messor 251

YoungWillz 222

Wormfarmer 204
John Key 197
Gooseberry Crumble 145
Grigori 80
mr.whit 43
Bibliogryphon 38

[Joey Russ 7,228]

I rue my luck on here. I removed Oliver Dragojevic from my team on the assumption that he was in remission and that he wouldn’t have received a QO. Now he’s dead and has received a QO. Of course this would happen. 

On a more positive note, congrats to msc for having one of his transfers in be successful...

[Torva Messor 279]

Mary Carlisle was my joker. Copied link to Telegraph obit (QO) from the Derby Dead Pool forum.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Update #17

 

Hits:
28 July - Bruce Lietzke (b. 1951) - msc, Grim Up North, Death Impends
1 August - Mary Carlisle (b. 1914) - Torva Messor (J)
5 August - Charlotte Rae (b. 1926) - The Unknown Man, msc, drol, Wormfarmer, Grim Up North, Death Impends

 

Scoreboard:
gcreptile 968

DeathImpends 964

msc 889

CaptainChorizo 784

Grim Up North 772

drol 763

Joey Russ 715

Book 679

Sean 672

DevonDeathTrip 653

Prophet 620

FixedBusiness 458

Banana 412

The Unknown Man 383
Toast 319

Torva Messor 279

Wormfarmer 228

YoungWillz 222
John Key 197
Gooseberry Crumble 145
Grigori 80
mr.whit 43
Bibliogryphon 38

 

[Wormfarmer 427]

Stan Mikita, Chicago Blackhawks Hockey Great, ices the puck.  

[Joey Russ 7,228]

With Jarrod Lyle now dead, I think Death Impends and gcreptile has put a buffer that is very hard to reach now. Oh well, there's always next year...

[Joey Russ 7,228]

I have Aretha here...

[RadGuy 1,614]

Update #18

 

Hits:
7 August - Stan Mikita (b. 1940) - Wormfarmer, Banana

8 August - Jarrod Lyle (b. 1981) - gcreptile, Death Impends

16 August - Atal Bihari Vajpayee (b. 1924) - drol

16 August - Aretha Franklin (b. 1942) - Fixed Business, Gooseberry Crumble, John Key, Joey Russ, Wormfarmer, Book, Grim Up North, Prophet

 

Scoreboard:
gcreptile 1049

DeathImpends 1045

msc 889

Grim Up North 814

drol 787

CaptainChorizo 784

Joey Russ 757

Book 721

Sean 672

Prophet 662

DevonDeathTrip 653

FixedBusiness 500

Banana 452

The Unknown Man 383
Toast 319

Wormfarmer 310

Torva Messor 279

John Key 239

YoungWillz 222
Gooseberry Crumble 187
Grigori 80
mr.whit 43
Bibliogryphon 38

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,588]

Finally a hit for me here with SKS.

[YoungWillz 21,062]

Wormfarmer picked DDP pick Robin Leach for this game.

 

Looks like he dead:

 

[gcreptile 10,979]

DI about to overtake me with a low-scoring pick. I have to rely on my usually riskier, and higher-scoring differentials.

[RadGuy 1,614]

Update #19

 

Hits:

21 August - Spencer P. Jones (b. 1956) - msc, Joey Russ, Book, gcreptile, Captain Chorizo, DeathImpends

21 August - Stefan Karl Stefansson (b. 1975) - FixedBusiness, Bibliogryphon, The Unknown Man, Grigori, msc, John Key, Sean, drol, Joey Russ, Wormfarmer, Book, Grim Up North, gcreptile, Torva Messor, CaptainChorizo, Banana, Toast, DeathImpends, DevonDeathTrip, Prophet

24 August - Robin Leach (b. 1941) - Wormfarmer

 

Scoreboard:
gcreptile 1180

DeathImpends 1176

msc 1020

Captain Chorizo 915

Grim Up North 889

Joey Russ 888

drol 862

Book 852

Sean 747

Prophet 737

DevonDeathTrip 728

FixedBusiness 575

Banana 527

The Unknown Man 458

Wormfarmer 426
Toast 394

Torva Messor 354

John Key 314

YoungWillz 222
Gooseberry Crumble 187
Grigori 155

Bibliogryphon 113
mr.whit 43

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,588]

32 minutes ago, Phantom of the Midway said:

Update #19

 

Hits:

21 August - Spencer P. Jones (b. 1956) - msc, Joey Russ, Book, gcreptile, Captain Chorizo, DeathImpends

21 August - Stefan Karl Stefansson (b. 1975) - FixedBusiness, Bibliogryphon, The Unknown Man, Grigori, msc, John Key, Sean, drol, Joey Russ, Wormfarmer, Book, Grim Up North, gcreptile, Torva Messor, CaptainChorizo, Banana, Toast, DeathImpends, DevonDeathTrip, Prophet

24 August - Robin Leach (b. 1941) - Wormfarmer

 

Scoreboard:
gcreptile 1180

DeathImpends 1176

msc 1020

Captain Chorizo 915

Grim Up North 889

Joey Russ 888

drol 862

Book 852

Sean 747

Prophet 737

DevonDeathTrip 728

FixedBusiness 575

Banana 527

The Unknown Man 458

Wormfarmer 426
Toast 394

Torva Messor 354

John Key 314

YoungWillz 222
Gooseberry Crumble 187
Grigori 155

Bibliogryphon 113
mr.whit 43

 

 

Off the bottom. @mr.whit didn't stay around too long though...

[Death Impends 7,985]

Hmm

 

What's left of differentials between gcreptile and I

 

gcreptile

 

George Alagiah, Stephen Beer, John Cocks, Noel Conway, Ben Dover, Stuart Fraser, Zak Gleeson (NQO), Jorie Graham, Sacheen Littlefeather, Anna Pavord, Genesis P-Orridge, Lindy Remigino (NQO), Holly Rowe, Conway Savage, Steve Smith, Valeri Spiridonov, Mohammad Usman (NQO), Marieke Vervoort (non-joker), Dawn Wilson, Reggie Wright Jr.

 

Me

 

Martin Allcock, Colin Butts (NQO), DJ Casper, Johnny Clegg, Jill Gascoine, Steve Gleason, Valerie Harper, Cynthia Heimel (NQO), Bill Heine, John McCain, William "The Refrigerator" Perry, Simon Ricketts, Nanci Ryder, Budi Tek, Ian Toothill (NQO), Marieke Vervoort (joker), Mike Willesee, Joanne Woodward

 

As noted above, the inevitable McCain death will put me in the lead, but a wash beyond that. A handful of remission-y types and LotLers on both ends, so the last four months will be interesting times.

[msc 18,479]

A wash? I'll have you know I'll cut the lead down to a mere 156 points!

 

Right, let's see the differentials between you 2 and the "people's underdog" (TM), msc.

 

7. msc

David Cervinski,  David DiChiera,  Latham Grant (J), Clive James,Steve Kopacz, Vanessa Lafaye (if she gets that obit),Philomena Lynott, Kulsoom Nawaz, Linda Nolan, Peter Overton, Carl Piddington, Mike Pintek, Bishop Francis Quinn,

 

Hmm, not the best hand in the world, I'll be honest!

[Death Impends 7,985]

Part of me did think of including your own in the post, admittedly, largely because the Grant joker paying off would cause a huge shakeup. But as you've noted in the past, a very tricky obit in a deadpool without regional sources.

[Joey Russ 7,228]

Interesting times ahead. Death Impends held the lead for a few days due to John McCain, but gcreptile gets it back after Conway Savage’s demise...

[gcreptile 10,979]

Think this has a couple of twists and turns left, including the odd non-QO turning into a QO.

Warning: Massive Post incoming (Don't ask me how my evening/night was, it was weird, and the creation of this post was interrupted several times):

 

Let me just say that DI has, in my opinion, a research edge this "season". His roster of 2018 names is uuh.. strong and stable... and carries him from one strong performance to the other. I can only keep up here because my method works better with bigger teams. Otherwise, my performances this year are, well, lacking. Except for the Generation Game, ha! But then, I might have had a bit of an edge back then in 2016/17 (just bad decisions in the DDP 2017 which were still enough for 2 Top 20 finishes).

 

Anyway....

Let me take DI's list of differentials and put my own opinion on/at/into it (spilling a bit of my own deeper research here):

Me:

George Alagiah - could become a hit, late in the year, when we suddenly get a "quits treatment" message in November.

Stephen Beer - freak pick that I always manage to sneak in somewhere. Last news were in January 18 as far as I can tell. Troubled person + overweight : Still..eh... However, if that one goes, it's an almost-knock-out.

John Cocks - They said "he should be dead", but then it's "only" kidney cancer which I don't have that high on my target list anymore. Wasted joker in the theme team league? Possible non-obit? dicey

Noel Conway - hmm, possible, from the looks of it, kind of worse off than Stephen Hawking ever was, with the breathing mask. Also old, so weak muscles, body collapsing. 2020 is out of reach, but 2019?

Ben Dover - deeper research: was visited by his children last week - in Spain. I assume it's not a hospital. So doing ok. Not the best option

Stuart Fraser - JoeyRuss probably researched him more than me, and is pessimistic for him (that is Joey, optimistic for Fraser then). So not likely, also obit in question

Zak Gleeson - wasted pick

Jorie Graham - good chance, if not this year, then maybe next year's XXXX (who was that female UK author with lung cancer, writing extensively about her plight?). Kind of like Conway Savage - silence => latter half of the year hit

Sacheen Littlefeather - didn't look too bad on some twitter photo a couple of months ago. Things can go down fast though. Have a feeling a hit is here.

Anna Pavord - still active. However, her last treatment cycle already broke her down completely. Another recurrence is likely a quick death. And a couple of months are left

Genesis P-Orridge - was on stage a while ago, so never been at death's door, so far. Leukemia can strike fast though, but I have to admit, that in this case, my instincts were wrong until now. Still wouldn't rule it out, expected them dead by now though.

Lindy Remigino - maybe??? Though before Conway Savage it would have been for naught, because DI's hit with John McCain would still leave him ahead by 2 pts with a Remigino QO. Now he would be a nice extra, to counter Woodward or Gascoine

Holly Rowe - in remission, and just looking to robust. Ok, the robust/slim theory led me astray quite a bit with regard to Leah Bracknell. But no, she's not going away.

Steve Smith - His absolutely dreadful appearance made me pick him here as a differential. But well, Pete Frates also recovered from such a state. And the obit might be unsure, because he's only the like third-most relevant Steve Smith in football or something like that

Valeri Spiridonov - high risk/ high reward. I forgot his blog address, yes, I even forgot the platform that hosted it. No idea how he is doing. A knockout punch if it happens. Statistically, he has made it unusually far. Still obitable? But the risk/reward ratio made him a no-brainer for me. Next year may be different. And let's search for that blog...

Mohammad Usman - wasted pick - was a Mirror or bust thing. In this 50 people pool, the cancer mum/dad/boy thing will likely lead to a few non obits. Those that hit though, are golden. But maybe you realize that I've switched out some of them. Shameless would have had a disappointing result this year. Anyway, this and Zak Gleeson's non-QO I totally deserve. Switching some of them out was a big concession, I cut my losses.

Marieke Vervoort - Oh dear... now a ramble... without Conway Savage, this would have been DI's knock-out hit. Now I'd not be all that much behind. She's 19 years younger, and DI was about 30pts ahead, so I'd have to get 50 pts from somewhere. Jorie Graham would do it. Littlefeather not quite, but maybe with Remigino or really anyone else... As for my thoughts about her dying - who knows... Obviously have to dive deep into her psyche in December, if she's alive then. Statistically, the pick is still sound. Liam Miller was the better joker though, which however is only totally clear in hindsight, as Miller could well have lived for longer, considering his age. Why didn't I joker her here? Can't recall, maybe investment diversification? Anyway, I don't want a trophy-less year. Ok, I got the ABC deadpool. But it had fewer entries back then. It was unsure then that relatively new member Wormfarmer would turn out to be such an organized, dedicated forum member? The novelty possibly kept a few people away, plus the first come-first serve rule, which I exploited well, but not too well, as Gilbert and Stefansson last(ed) longer. On the other hand, 2nd placed Wormfarmer posted before me, and I was lucky he wasn't yet attuned to the forum hive mind (think he missed Errol Christie?). Props to 3rd placed Zsa Zsa's Leg though. Highly underrated performance, top hit with xxxTentacion.

Dawn Wilson - have to dig deeply here. She might be dead already, last twitter entry in May. I hope it's not the deciding hit. But yeah, have her in my B-Team because she seemed the lazy way to keep the unique hit streak going. Obvious obit risk.

Reggie Wright Jr. - Eh, who knows with these gangsters. Terminally ill? Well, could be! If so, many will wonder "Why didn't I pick him". If not, I will wonder "How could I be so stupid".

 

Death Impends:

Maartin Allcock - Didn't know about him when the news came up. I mean, I saw DDT's post, but only took notice of him when people picked him. I think it's a little early though. Made it public in June, has plans and still defiant. Might very well go down, possibly more than a 50% or even 60% chance to die before 2020. Have a feeling it's too early though. 

Colin Butts - hmm, no. I mean if they made another series, or some indirect reference, but probably not. Not likely in a "we lost" at the end of the year.

DJ Casper - yeah, knew he was doing ok, hence I didn't pick him anywhere this year. Now "officially" in remission.

Johnny Clegg - can't rule him out, definitely earns extremely heavy consideration for 2019 if he makes it. Just slightly too active, slightly too optimistic. And not with the head in the clouds, as he already faces the end with a "final tour". 

Jill Gascoine - good low-scoring pick. Her and Woodward are a bit "clash of the concepts". DI goes little by little, I go all or nothing. Think the better DDP strategy became obvious this year. Here it's an open question. Think Gascoine is slowly moving into "overdue" territory

Steve Gleason - the new kid news came out of nowhere. Can he be that big of an asshole to die before it's born? Or is he the even bigger asshole to die with the child barely alive? My hunch is that he is stable enough. Looks bigger than Ricksen as well. Maybe he found a way to manage it, the statistics are bad though, and have been since last year.

Valerie Harper - could always die... or last another 5 years. Twin pick with Clive James. Worth 39 pts, part of the little-by-little strategy. I think we'll know when the end is coming though.

Cynthia Heimel - that Guardian article just didn't come... The Independent had an obit, but noone followed. Was she too sex-positive in the #metoo era for the Guardian? That's my theory. Bad timing, DI doesn't deserve that miss.

Bill Heine - actually, doing appropriately well. Not one for 2018. Pretty sure of that.

William Perry - let me google him for the first time in half a year. Signs autographs..ok, probably a bad pick, but every old wrestler is a target for a heart attack and/or liver failure. Think it's rather unlikely though.

Simon Ricketts - On paper, DI's best choice? Small tip: The obit might only appear in a blog form from the Guardian Night team. Not even sure if the blog format counts as a QO. He did win some blogging award lately though and the next cancer attack will kill him within days.

Nanci Ryder - Apparently not too public anymore? I guess not looking as bad as Steve Smith, but pretty much comparable in risk/reward ratio I think

Budi Tek - somewhat miraculously still alive and active a month ago or so. Things can go down quickly though. Little by little... 

Ian Toothill - yeah, in my opinion the one time DI really grabbed into the FFBI box, and got punished for it. Unfair odds. Don't see an obit here anymore. With Heimel neither, by the way, and now her outfit closed down.

Marieke Vervoort - see above

Mike Willesee - here, we can come to an agreement, hit for DI here, getting him slightly ahead of me, but also a big boost in the Theme Team league for me. Obviously I want to win both though, ha! But yes, Willesee recently hospitalised for a fall. When cancer spreads into the bones, they get weak and are easy to break. Think the most likely hit, DI is going to have, better than Ricketts, but fewer points.

Joanne Woodward - bad health, could be dead any day now or in 5 years. No, more like 3 years. Good pick for his strategy.

 

Leaves me with 16 possibilities, and DI with 13.

Matching them up:

Steve Smith - Steve Gleason (the one lacks obitability, the other lacks frailty) (draw)

Sacheen Littlefeather - Mike Willesee (terminal cancer septuagenarians) (draw)

George Alagiah - Maartin Allcock (middle-aged more likely 2019 types) (draw - some of you may differ)

Jorie Graham - Johnny Clegg (silence from her, deadlier cancer from him) (draw)

Lindy Remigino - Budi Tek (the one is a safe death but considerably unsafe obit, the other is a moderately likely death whose time must be coming to an end with a dicey but less-than-Remigino-dicey obit) (draw)

Ben Dover - Bill Heine (think both are doing too well) (draw)

Noel Conway - Nanci Ryder (pretty evenly matched actually) (draw)

Stephen Beer - William Refrigerator Perry (If I hadn't just googled Perry, he would be the far better pick. Now it's a case of two lightning strikes) (draw)

John Cocks - Marieke Vervoort (joker) - the match-ups get harder. But both of them have a certain diceyness.  (no idea)

Stuart Fraser - XXX no match in DI's team, but only a very small advantage for me. Another Conway Savage-type hit? Probably not (advantage me)

Anna Pavord - Valerie Harper (Seems about right) (draw)

Genesis P-Orridge - XXX no real match in DI's team (just a small, not very small, but small advantage for me) (advantage me)

Dawn Wilson - Simon Ricketts - a match-up moderately in DI's favour, because Wilson's slightly younger age, can't compensate for Rickett's higher obitability. The most aggressive arrows in both teams, neither a lock in death, nor a lock in obitability (advantage DI)

Reggie Wright Jr. - XXXX Think DI has no "Is he even ill" person in his team. (advantage me)

Valeri Spiridonov - XXXX Would more or less give me the win on the spot. At least somewhat notable, probably about as much as Ricketts, ha! (Journalists are sort-of cheating the notability criteria, because they make them). (advantage me)

XXXX - Woodward & Gascoine (I have none of these safe and sound picks anymore. Together they're worth 67 pts. A quick search said, Wright Jr. is 52 years old - born in 1965/66. ) (advantage DI + advantage DI)

 

Pretty evenly matched I think. Maybe with tiny advantages for me, because I have more names left. But: The biggest advantage for me is that I am currently ahead, by, I think, 28 points? Means, I could barely beat back a Budi Tek death by.. a point? Then Remigino would merely be a nice extra.

So yeah, I think I have a better chance now. But honestly, it's only about one or maybe one and a half pick or so. That gives me the matchball, or say, the serve to win, now. But a (lucky) break for DI is very well possible.