Thoughts On The 2018 List

[Joey Russ 7,119]

Well, I think Moss is almost certainly a goner. Can’t be doing too well after multiple hospitalizations. I think everyone else does has a chance to survive the year, but that almost most certainly won’t be the case...

[Grim Up North 3,565]

Yes likewise George Bush but from a pessimistic hits point of view the clock could tick round to 2019 for them both and it wouldn't be that much of a surprise.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

Well, if I had to make a tier list for likelihood of being a hit, it would look like this*:

 

Almost a certainty: Bracknell, Wouk, McCain, Moss, Jowell, George Bush

Very likely: Gascoine, Barbara Bush, Simon, James

Likely: Lee, Dole, Scales, Phillips, Norden

50/50: Douglas, Philip, Graham, Benedict, Greaves, Harper, Mitchell, Smith 

Unlikely: Carrington, Perez de Cuellar, Lynn, Mugabe, Baxter, Giscard d'Estaing, Connery, St John

Very Unlikely: de Havilland, Nolan, Cardin, Day, Carter, Blackman, Mubarak, Hawking, Newton-John

Almost no chance: White, Barker, Aznavour, Kissinger, van Dyke, Brooks, Brown, Farrakhan, Wood, Gascoigne

 

It must be said that there are more picks that appear to be poor picks than those that are good, which is why I don't expect to break the record this year. But I still think it could surprise us...

 

*this is subject to change as the year goes on as a sudden health downturn is always possible, like if Wood's cancer goes into relapse or if Nolan's and Newton-John's cancer turns out to be worse than expected

[msc 17,762]

Wood's cancer goes into relapse perchance?

 

Also, I love it when people say "almost no chance" to folk who are in their 90s, in January. I wouldn't be that sure if I got to that age!

[Joey Russ 7,119]

The batch I chose for the 90 year old's are the ones that are still quite active, so that's why they are there. I was tempted to put de Havilland there as well, but it doesn't feel right to put a centenarian on there...

[Prophet 245]

9 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Well, if I had to make a tier list for likelihood of being a hit, it would look like this*:

 

Almost a certainty: Bracknell, Wouk, McCain, Moss, Jowell, George Bush

Very likely: Gascoine, Barbara Bush, Simon, James

Likely: Lee, Dole, Scales, Phillips, Norden

50/50: Douglas, Philip, Graham, Benedict, Greaves, Harper, Mitchell, Smith 

Unlikely: Carrington, Perez de Cuellar, Lynn, Mugabe, Baxter, Giscard d'Estaing, Connery, St John

Very Unlikely: de Havilland, Nolan, Cardin, Day, Carter, Blackman, Mubarak, Hawking, Newton-John

Almost no chance: White, Barker, Aznavour, Kissinger, van Dyke, Brooks, Brown, Farrakhan, Wood, Gascoigne

 

It must be said that there are more picks that appear to be poor picks than those that are good, which is why I don't expect to break the record this year. But I still think it could surprise us...

 

*this is subject to change as the year goes on as a sudden health downturn is always possible, like if Wood's cancer goes into relapse or if Nolan's and Newton-John's cancer turns out to be worse than expected

Jill Gascoine have End-Stage-Alzheimer. Why do you think she have almost no chance to die this year? Her Alzheimer is more worse than that from Prunella Scales.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

Just now, Prophet said:

Jill Gascoine have End-Stage-Alzheimer. Why do you think she have almost no chance to die this year? Her Alzheimer is more worse than that from Prunella Scales.

Paul Gascoigne. I have Jill as very likely...

[Grim Up North 3,565]

1 minute ago, Prophet said:

 

[Prophet 245]

1 minute ago, Joey Russ said:

Paul Gascoigne. I have Jill as very likely...

Oh, Sorry. My mistake.

[msc 17,762]

15 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

The batch I chose for the 90 year old's are the ones that are still quite active, so that's why they are there. I was tempted to put de Havilland there as well, but it doesn't feel right to put a centenarian on there...

 

Oh, I'm not having a go! Just amused.

 

That said, if I get to 102 (hahahaha) I want to be as healthy and mentally active as Olivia de Havilland appears to be!

[Prophet 245]

My list:

Massive Danger- Leah Bracknell, John McCain, Tessa Jowell, Clive James

 

Will they, won't they- Kirk Douglas, Herman Wouk, Billy Graham, Linda Nolan, Javier Perez de Cuellar, Stan Lee, Stirling Moss, Bob Dole, Prunella Scales, Leslie Phillips, Jill Gascoine, Vera Lynn, George Bush Senior, Barbara Bush, Pope Benedict XVI, Neil Simon, Denis Norden, Jimmy Greaves, Valerie Harper, Olivia Newton-John

 

Little Chance- Olivia De Havilland, Prince Philip Duke of Edinburgh, Betty White, Lord Carrington, Pierre Cardin, Doris Day, Bob Barker, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Charles Aznavour, Henry Kissinger, Honor Blackman, Stanley Baxter, Valery Giscard d'Estaing, June Brown, Hosni Mubarak, Sean Connery, Louis Farrakhan, Ian St John, Stephen Hawking, Joni Mitchell, Mark E Smith

 

Safe for 2019- Dick van Dyke, Mel Brooks, Ronnie Wood, Paul Gascoigne

[ebless 202]

46 minutes ago, Prophet said:

My list:

Massive Danger- Leah Bracknell, John McCain, Tessa Jowell, Clive James

 

Will they, won't they- Kirk Douglas, Herman Wouk, Billy Graham, Linda Nolan, Javier Perez de Cuellar, Stan Lee, Stirling Moss, Bob Dole, Prunella Scales, Leslie Phillips, Jill Gascoine, Vera Lynn, George Bush Senior, Barbara Bush, Pope Benedict XVI, Neil Simon, Denis Norden, Jimmy Greaves, Valerie Harper, Olivia Newton-John

 

Little Chance- Olivia De Havilland, Prince Philip Duke of Edinburgh, Betty White, Lord Carrington, Pierre Cardin, Doris Day, Bob Barker, Jimmy Carter, Robert Mugabe, Charles Aznavour, Henry Kissinger, Honor Blackman, Stanley Baxter, Valery Giscard d'Estaing, June Brown, Hosni Mubarak, Sean Connery, Louis Farrakhan, Ian St John, Stephen Hawking, Joni Mitchell, Mark E Smith

 

Safe for 2019- Dick van Dyke, Mel Brooks, Ronnie Wood, Paul Gascoigne

How dare you copy my layout. 

[Joey Russ 7,119]

If you want some deeper analysis on the placing (I mean a lot of this has already been covered in the original analysis, but I think some of it has changed slightly), then here it is:

Bracknell, McCain, and Jowell all have terminal cancer. Bracknell's life expectancy for lung cancer is between March - May of this year, while glioblastoma is the cancer of both McCain and Jowell. Gord Downie lasted 20 months, but since the two of them are older than him, even with better health care, I don't think either of them will make it to 2019. 

Herman Wouk was last seen in a cannula back in July, which is always a sign of poor health. There was also news yesterday of his home in Palm Springs going up for sale, which I don't think usually happens at that age unless they expect him to go soon.

Stirling Moss was hospitalized a lot last year, and I think he's still hospitalized now. His website has also been shut down. I also have a feeling that he'll go very soon as well.

I'm sure we all know of George Bush's hospitalizations last year. My feeling is that his hospitalizations will continue this year, and while he may not be an early death, I think he will be dead by the end of the year.

Speaking of Bush Sr, I also think that Barbara Bush is quite frail, and her and Bush would very likely be an example of spouses dying within a few months of each other.

Jill Gascoine is in the end of year Alzheimer's stage. She is not as likely to go as the questionable drop Nobby (though I do have a theory on that which I'll talk about later), but I think there's a decent chance she won't see 2019. If she does see 2019, she'll be a cert for that year imo.

Neil Simon also has Alzheimer's. There were already reports of him being uncommunicative, which suggest it's already near the end stage. Kind of similar to how Glen Campbell was unable to play guitar at that point for me at least.

Clive James has been missing in action since July of last year, and it doesn't look like he'll return to the Guardian. Sounds alright at his last podcast, but I think he's in decline and won't see 2019.

Stan Lee I think some people will disagree with me, but he did lose his wife last year. He's currently in that danger zone for when people lose their spouse, and people who seemed to be in fine health do follow their spouse very often (Pete Seeger is the example that immediately came to mind, but I know there are many others). I also get the feeling that he won't see 2019 as well.

Bob Dole was first hospitalized last year. I think his hospitalization's will continue this year, so he could very well be a hit. 

Prunella Scales is also at end stage Alzheimer's, though I don't think she's as advanced as Stiles, Gascoine, and Simon. 

Phillips and Norden are the old folk who aren't in good health that have the feeling of "surely this has to be their year?"

Douglas was seen in a wheelchair when we saw him at the Emmy's, which suggests his health has deteriorated, though since I assume it's recent since he was still walking at his 101st birthday, doesn't necessarily mean he's going to die this year.

Prince Philip won't see the decade out, that I'm certain of, especially cause his health has deteriorated since he retired. However, pinpointing whether he'll be a 2018 or 2019 death is more of a question mark. 

Graham will probably die in the next few years, but his god doesn't want him apparently. 

Pope Benedict has some reports in 2016 and 2017 to be in frail health. I believe the reports are true, but he could last a few years.

Jimmy Greaves cancer is bad, but I'm not really sure if it's bad enough to kill him this year. Same with Harper, though her original medicine did start to wear off.

I actually think that Joni Mitchell is quite frail now, and I think of Bruce Forsyth and how it deteriorated his health when he was quite active and healthy, so I think Joni Mitchell is more likely of a hit than a lot of people assume. 

Mark E Smith has been cancelling a lot of his concerts due to health concerns. There were some people that cancelled their concerts last year and they died (Wetton although he did look very terrible, Allman, and O'Riordan comes to mind, and I think there are other's I'm missing as well). I have a feeling that he'll go the same way as them. He may not go this year, but I'm also certain he won't see 2025. Watch me be wrong on him now. 

Carrington is quite old, but is still doing alright last time I heard.

Perez de Cuellar will probably have no news till he dies. I think Mugabe is the same now that he's in exile. 

Vera Lynn is still active, but I have seen some reports of her frailty. Connery is in a similar situation as Lynn, though I think he's more on the list so the committee doesn't potentially miss the next Bond death.

Baxter and Giscard d'Estaing are the deathlist cult picks this year imo. There hasn't been a lot of new on either of them, so seeing 2019 or dying this year wouldn't surprise me either way. 

Ian St John looked very good in his most recent update. It is still assumed that he has stage 4 cancer, though he might have recovered without us knowing it. I also have a theory that they thought St John was the footballer with end stage Alzheimer's and Stiles is the one that looked well, though that doesn't mean his drop isn't disappointing. 

de Havilland, Cardin, and Blackman are still active, though none of there deaths would surprise me, especially Blackman since the committee has been good about sniffing out aging actresses in recent years. 

Nolan and Newton-John have incurable cancer, and unless a surprise remission happens, they will probably die in the next five years. Probably aren't goners this year, though their cancer spreading later this year wouldn't surprise me. 

Doris Day has little news on her, but I don't know if that's enough to have her death as a guarantee

Carter was battling cancer, but he's currently in remission. It is with the potential of relapse that I will never put Carter in the almost no chance category. 

Mubarak is a lying sod. Old, but probably won't go this year.

Hawking's ALS will kill him eventually, but I can easily see him make 90 considering how long he had ALS for. 

White, Aznavour, van Dyke, and Brooks are in the way too active with no health problems category. Some people might try to remind me of Jerry Lewis, but I do remind you that he had plenty of health issues before 2010 even while he was very active. None of the four had major health struggles as far as I know. 

Barker had Tabloid bullshit on him. Plus he's still active, so I think he could last a few years. 

Kissinger doesn't have a lot of new on him, but I get the feeling he'll live a few more years.

I don't really know a lot on June Brown, but people are saying she's very healthy, so I'll agree with them.

Farrakhan is someone I think got back on way too early.

Wood's cancer is in remission, so that what makes him a poor pick right now. But, I actually have a feeling that his cancer will return and kill him before the end of this decade. So I don't think he's impossible, but for now, he's a bad pick.

What do I need to say about Gazza other than he's a wasted pick who could last decades. 

 

I'm sure there's some disagreement, but I think the general consensus is that it won't be a record breaking year...

[Grim Up North 3,565]

Joey - apologies for the personal question - but have you ever had sex?

[Joey Russ 7,119]

3 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

Joey - apologies for the personal question - but have you ever had sex?

Which person are you potentially referencing to, as I'm assuming that's referencing someone on my analysis?

 

FYI, no. Never even had a date...

[msc 17,762]

Downie lasted 17 months, so McCain and Jowell will do very well to see 2019.

 

Also I like how your "it wont break the record" gets to what looks to be an estimated 14/50 on frail or ill people alone!

[Grim Up North 3,565]

No - it was a cheap shot really - just at your age spending the time on a dead pool doing all that analysis of people and how likely they are to die, well, it just seems a waste of youth to an old man like me who wasted most of his best single years in a stupor of drink. 

 

Get out there, have some fun, mess around a bit - time enough for this stuff when the only woman (or man) who is interested in you is 50 and you get a stiff neck looking down at her nipples.

 

They do say youth is wasted on the young but you only understand that when you are older.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

Well, it partially has to do with some personal issues that I would rather not mention cause I think it could lead to more bullying by certain members (not you Grim, but others)...

[Grim Up North 3,565]

3 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

Well, it partially has to do with some personal issues that I would rather not mention cause I think it could lead to more bullying by certain members (not you Grim, but others)...

Okay then I apologise - pool on and enjoy! 

 

I've got three daughters and believe me I understand that life when you're young can be complicated!

 

I didn't have any personal issues but I didn't have my first date till I was 19 and I was married by the time I was 24 so you never know what life has in store round the corner.

[msc 17,762]

I thought Grim was one of the younger posters on here. Thank goodness, I was start to go grey...

 

 

[Spade_Cooley 9,022]

I made my first dead pool team and lost my virginity in the same year, fwiw.

 

WHAT A 30TH BIRTHDAY PARTY THAT WAS etc etc etc

[drol 10,056]

I lost my virginity at 27. The first time it was not easy with her tail but then I got used.

[yrly 9]

On 12/31/2017 at 19:26, gcreptile said:

Hmm... they must be betting that the age glut at the top is going to be dissolved this year. I doubt it. It feels as if the list is slightly on the conservative side. Farrakhan was on it before? I think Lyndon LaRouche would have been the better pick in the political crackpot department.

 

I really like the shoutout to the forums.

Lyndon LaRouche is 95 but would probably would not have been a good choice. Still looked pretty good in his Christmas card to his Cult members. Also of note his parents both lived to old age with nowhere near the medicine they have now. Still he smoked a pipe for like 50 years and is/was a pretty heavy drinker.

[Bibliogryphon 8,662]

These are the seventeen that I think would be best bets to equal the record. Picked 21 names on first run through so there is potential there.

 

Kirk Douglas

Leah Bracknell 

Herman Wouk

Billy Graham

John McCain

Stirling Moss

Tessa Jowell 

Bob Dole

Leslie Phillips 

Jill Gascoigne 

Vera Lynn

George H W Bush

Pope Benedict XVI

Neil Simon

Denis Norden

Jimmy Greaves

Clive James 

[Sean 5,998]

Smith`s death in my view leaves the list in a good position.As one of the most risky picks Smith was by no means a cert and was one of the youngest names on the list.With certs such as Bracknell Jowell and McCain advanced dementia sufferers such as Gascoine Scales and Simon and very old and ill names such as Wouk Graham Bush Senior Moss Barbara Bush Dole and Leslie Phillips ,and the extreme age of many candidates this could shape up to be a decent year.I doubt the DL record will be matched let alone beaten but there is still potential for a decent year with maybe 14 hits.