Thoughts On The 2018 List

[Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,132]

7 hours ago, theoldlady said:

I saw a news clip of Dick van Dyke doing a soft-shoe dance at a charity event in 2017! The man is still dancing and he is over 90 years old. So I would say he is the worst pick. Betty White is still working. If she were sick the American insurance companies would not take the risk to insure her - that is a requirement for most TV and Movie productions in the USA. 

This was in 2016

So why shouldn't Van Dyke still be able to dance like a Grandad??

[Prophet 245]

Predictions for hits:

 

1. Herman Wouk: 23 January

2. Leah Bracknell: 3 March

3. Neil Simon: 14 June

4. Clive James: 19 June

5. Sean Connery: 8 July

6. Stirling Moss: 14 August

7. Prunella Scales: 25 August

8. George Bush Senior: 29 August

9. John McCain: 8 October

10. Nobby Stiles: 13 October

10. Billy Graham: 28 November

11. Doris Day: 17 December

12. Tessa Jowell: 29 December

Barbara Bush will be the first hit in 2019.

[Toast 14,847]

My theory on why Valery Giscard d'Estaing is a debutant pick:

The Committee thought he'd been dead for years and only just found out that he's still alive.

[Sean 5,999]

Pleased to see Jowell Newton John Nolan McCain Mitchell Moss  and Simon make an appearance.Wood and Smith seem reasonable yet slightly risky picks.

Pleased to see James Scales and Hawking back on the list.

Shocked Stiles is off the list and that Chirac isn't back on the list.Also surprised the committee didn't pick Hume Tsvangirai Rea Peters and Wilson.

[Sean 5,999]

My prediction and timeliness of deaths:

Neil Simon:4th February

Clive James:20th February

Leslie Philips:19th March

Herman Wouk:30th March

Kirk Douglas:5th May

John McCain :13th May

Billy Graham:8th June

Leah Bracknell:16th June

Stirling Moss:6th July

Javier Perez De Cuellar :20th July

Olivia Newton John :28th July

Denis Norden:2nd September

George Bush:19th September

Mark E Smith:25th December

[Deathrace 1,099]

Decent list but Gazza should have been substituted for Stiles and a place should have been found for Val Kilmer. 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,211]

I think dropping the Japanese Emperor was the right decision but I expect he will likely be brought back next year when he will finally abdicate as has already been agreed with the Japanese government. 

 

I was half expecting Honor Blackman to be dropped but was pleasantly surprised when she wasn't. I now think the committee will keep her until she dies. 

 

Desmond Tutu and Gay Byrne are wise drop decisions by the committee. Unsure on David Prowse as he strikes me as an each way bet kind of pick currently. 

[RadGuy 1,605]

Like some new picks, like McCain, Jowell, Moss and a couple others.

 

Some glaring omissions like Rae, Ricksen, and Stefansson.

 

Some people I feel like were put on there because "hey, they were on two years ago or earlier, let's bring them back as part of the 25 new picks for no apparent reason". Those are Farrakhan and Gascoigne. 

 

Glad they listened to my 'Push for Babs Bush'.

 

Why the fuck did they drop Nobby Stiles?

 

A lot of punt picks like Mitchell and Smith.

 

Plus some oldies who seem in fine shape so far, like Brooks or van Dyke.

 

And why is Betty White up at #7? I understand not dropping her for her fame level and the actress curse, but she should have been #45 at best.

 

Overall, I expect 10-12 hits.

[Drewsky1211 4,081]

My guesses:

1. Leah Bracknell (January 26th)

2. Herman Wouk (February 8th)

3. Clive James (March 9th)

4. Stirling Moss (March 24th)

5. Neil Simon (May 6th)

6. Tessa Jowell (June 28th)

7. George H. W. Bush (July 4th)

8. Denis Norden (July 29th)

9. Barbara Bush (August 6th)

10. Kirk Douglas (August 24th)

11. Valerie Harper (October 5th)

12. Sean Connery (October 16th)

13. Jimmy Greaves (November 9th)

14. John McCain (November 20th)

15. Leslie Phillips (December 8th)

16. Olivia Newton-John (December 28th)

 

First hit on the list in 2019: Either Mark E. Smith or Doris Day

 

Overall, not a record-breaking year in my mind. Still close, however.

[John Key 664]

4 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

16 hours and still no hits. I’m NOT happy. 

Angry reacts only to Mr Russ's post

[Life Is Beautiful 695]

Question for the veterans: Who was the "quickest" Deathlist hit?

[Drewsky1211 4,081]

1 minute ago, Life Is Beautiful said:

Question for the veterans: Who was the "quickest" Deathlist hit?

Helen Wills. (1/1/1998)

Found out by looking at the older lists.

[Deadpool 163]

My thoughts...

I am more optimistic

 

Kirk Douglas: he doesn't look so bad to be 102. He is a legend of Hollywood... and of deathlist too. You can't drop him. Anyway I have the feeling this is his year. 80 % of chances to croak.

Leah Bracknell: She survives 2017 and can't do the same again. A cert. 99%

Herman Wouk: 103 year old in a wheelchair with an oxygen tank? This is his year. 95%

Olivia de Havilland: mmmm not sure but she is too old. One between her and Vera Lynn will go. 50%

Prince Philip: bad health for years. He's at the end in my view. His year.  90%

Billy Graham: he doesn't want to go... or God doesn't want him, I don't know this. I just know that one between him and Kirk will go. 80%

Betty White: mmmm I can't see her leaving us this year. 20% 

John McCain: nice choice. For me its a dead cert this year. 99%

Linda Nolan: seems bad but i am not sure about her, let say 50%

Lord Carrington: mmm not sure about him, but with 98 years old you can't live much longer. At least 40% 

Javier Perez de Cuellar:  old, frail and in wheelchair, the boring pick it's at his last year in my view. 95%

Pierre Cardin: i like this pick. One between him and Valery Giscard d'Estaing will go this year. 70%

Stan Lee: some health issues and after the dead of his wife i think is a good pick. 60% 

Stirling Moss. Bad apparently with months in hospital. 80%

Tessa Jowell: Another patient with Glioblastoma. A cert?  80%

Doris Day: Old, but at that age a cold could be lethal. We need to have a litle bit of lucky to see her down... 40%

Bob Dole: good choice. Chances he can go this year are high in my view. 70%

Bob Barker: one of the Bob's will go for sure. This one is more unlikely. 30%

Prunella Scales: not sure about her.

Jimmy Carter: He looks much better than Bush Sr. And has beat cancer. Everything can happens with him. Undropable. 50%

Leslie Phillips: he was between the most likely candidates to die last year. I think he can't survive this one. 95%

Jill Gascoine: Late stages of Alzheimer's. Almost a cert for some people in the forum.  Some possibilities in my opinion. 40%

Vera Lynn: one between her and Olivia de Havilland will go. 50%

Robert Mugabe: mmm iI'll say no. Bad people are hard to die. 15%

George Bush Sr.: so many recovers at the hospital, so many years on the edge. With parkinsons, pneumonia,... Come on! This is last year in my opinion. 90%

Charles Aznavour: mmm maybe , but unlikely in my view. 25%

Henry Kissinger: a hit here would be lovely. As Mugabe, bad people are hard to die. Hope to be wrong 15%

Honor Blackman: surprised of his inclusion. Not sure.

Barbara Bush: she looks bad. If she croaks, her husband will follow her... or viceversa. Nice pick in my view. 85%

Dick van Dyke: no comments . 

Stanley Baxter: No comments.

Valery Giscard d'Estaing: I like this pick. Nice chances to croak in my view. 75% 

Mel Brooks: well, he is not the favourite of some. But he is old. Is not a cert anyways. 35%

Benedict XVI: mmmm...could be his year. Could be not. Maybe? 50%

Neil Simon: No comments 

June Brown: No comments 

Hosni Mubarak: same as Mugabe and Kissinger. Bad people are hard to die. 10% 

Sean Connery: a litle bit surprised of the inclusion on the list... he is not going anywhere in my view. 10%

Louis Farrakhan: no comments 

Denis Norden: looks likely. 60%

Ian St. John: i thought he was going to be dropped. 20%

Jimmy Greaves: No comments.

Valerie Harper: mmmm i can see her survive the year. Some chances in my view. 40%

Clive James: High chances 75%

Stephen Hawking: He has a few reasons to be on the list like Als, certain age,bad shape, but still... just few chances to die. 30%

Ronnie Wood: i would prefer to see Keith Richards.  5%

Olivia Newton-John: Metastatic cancer, I will say 60%

Joni Mitchell: No comments 

Paul Gascoigne: surprised of his return. I would prefer much much more the inclusion of Pelè... 5%

Mark E. Smith: no comments 

 

Overall I would say around 12-13 hits

[Davey Jones' Locker 1,324]

On 1/1/2018 at 10:53, Nasquacker said:

Since they dropped the Queen she's probably gonna end up dying this year. Like clockwork.

[Bibliogryphon 8,662]

No Bernard Hepton, No Peter Sutcliffe. No Douglas Hurd.

 

[Spade_Cooley 9,023]

On 01/01/2018 at 16:30, Lord Fellatio Nelson said:

This was in 2016

So why shouldn't Van Dyke still be able to dance like a Grandad??

 

One of my favourite "what the fuck" facts, which this reminded me of: Toni Basil is only six years younger than Jim Bowen.

[Bibliogryphon 8,662]

Glad to see the Doctor Who gets two entries and wrestlers none.

[Deadpool 163]

Do you think the first dead is gonna be on January? 

[msc 17,762]

Will tell you in 23 days.

[Grim Up North 3,565]

8 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

On 1/2/2018 at 01:09, Deadpool said:

My thoughts...

I am more optimistic

 

Kirk Douglas: he doesn't look so bad to be 102. He is a legend of Hollywood... and of deathlist too. You can't drop him. Anyway I have the feeling this is his year. 80 % of chances to croak.

Leah Bracknell: She survives 2017 and can't do the same again. A cert. 99%

Herman Wouk: 103 year old in a wheelchair with an oxygen tank? This is his year. 95%

Olivia de Havilland: mmmm not sure but she is too old. One between her and Vera Lynn will go. 50%

Prince Philip: bad health for years. He's at the end in my view. His year.  90%

Billy Graham: he doesn't want to go... or God doesn't want him, I don't know this. I just know that one between him and Kirk will go. 80%

Betty White: mmmm I can't see her leaving us this year. 20% 

John McCain: nice choice. For me its a dead cert this year. 99%

Linda Nolan: seems bad but i am not sure about her, let say 50%

Lord Carrington: mmm not sure about him, but with 98 years old you can't live much longer. At least 40% 

Javier Perez de Cuellar:  old, frail and in wheelchair, the boring pick it's at his last year in my view. 95%

Pierre Cardin: i like this pick. One between him and Valery Giscard d'Estaing will go this year. 70%

Stan Lee: some health issues and after the dead of his wife i think is a good pick. 60% 

Stirling Moss. Bad apparently with months in hospital. 80%

Tessa Jowell: Another patient with Glioblastoma. A cert?  80%

Doris Day: Old, but at that age a cold could be lethal. We need to have a litle bit of lucky to see her down... 40%

Bob Dole: good choice. Chances he can go this year are high in my view. 70%

Bob Barker: one of the Bob's will go for sure. This one is more unlikely. 30%

Prunella Scales: not sure about her.

Jimmy Carter: He looks much better than Bush Sr. And has beat cancer. Everything can happens with him. Undropable. 50%

Leslie Phillips: he was between the most likely candidates to die last year. I think he can't survive this one. 95%

Jill Gascoine: Late stages of Alzheimer's. Almost a cert for some people in the forum.  Some possibilities in my opinion. 40%

Vera Lynn: one between her and Olivia de Havilland will go. 50%

Robert Mugabe: mmm iI'll say no. Bad people are hard to die. 15%

George Bush Sr.: so many recovers at the hospital, so many years on the edge. With parkinsons, pneumonia,... Come on! This is last year in my opinion. 90%

Charles Aznavour: mmm maybe , but unlikely in my view. 25%

Henry Kissinger: a hit here would be lovely. As Mugabe, bad people are hard to die. Hope to be wrong 15%

Honor Blackman: surprised of his inclusion. Not sure.

Barbara Bush: she looks bad. If she croaks, her husband will follow her... or viceversa. Nice pick in my view. 85%

Dick van Dyke: no comments . 

Stanley Baxter: No comments.

Valery Giscard d'Estaing: I like this pick. Nice chances to croak in my view. 75% 

Mel Brooks: well, he is not the favourite of some. But he is old. Is not a cert anyways. 35%

Benedict XVI: mmmm...could be his year. Could be not. Maybe? 50%

Neil Simon: No comments 

June Brown: No comments 

Hosni Mubarak: same as Mugabe and Kissinger. Bad people are hard to die. 10% 

Sean Connery: a litle bit surprised of the inclusion on the list... he is not going anywhere in my view. 10%

Louis Farrakhan: no comments 

Denis Norden: looks likely. 60%

Ian St. John: i thought he was going to be dropped. 20%

Jimmy Greaves: No comments.

Valerie Harper: mmmm i can see her survive the year. Some chances in my view. 40%

Clive James: High chances 75%

Stephen Hawking: He has a few reasons to be on the list like Als, certain age,bad shape, but still... just few chances to die. 30%

Ronnie Wood: i would prefer to see Keith Richards.  5%

Olivia Newton-John: Metastatic cancer, I will say 60%

Joni Mitchell: No comments 

Paul Gascoigne: surprised of his return. I would prefer much much more the inclusion of Pelè... 5%

Mark E. Smith: no comments 

 

Overall I would say around 12-13 hits

 

 

You have given a % chance of death for 40 of the 50 Names chosen.

 

The total of all the percentages comes to 2168% so dividing that by 100 means that out of the 40 names you have rated you expect 22 people to die with a further 10 people who could possibly die. A massive crushing of the record!

 

This suggests your statement at the bottom of your post (12-13 hits) is totally unlinked to all the effort you put in to pick some percentages for each selection.

 

You are not the only person who does this so I apologise for selecting your offering for illustration purposes - it seems strange to me.

 

18 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

Do you think the first dead is gonna be on January? 

No.

 

 

 

 

 

[Sean 5,999]

33 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

Do you think the first dead is gonna be on January? 

Probably.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

I don’t know. Though the first death since 2011 has always been on or after the 20th of January, so I suspect if they do get a hit in January, it’ll be at least two weeks away from now. But there’s no one who is even close to being on the clock at this point in time, so it could be a few months before the first hit is known...

[Toast 14,847]

6 minutes ago, Joey Russ said:

I don’t know. Though the first death since 2011 has always been on or after the 20th of January, so I suspect if they do get a hit in January, it’ll be at least two weeks away from now. But there’s no one who is even close to being on the clock at this point in time, so it could be a few months before the first hit is known...

 

I  disagree:  there's quite a few who could keel over at any moment.

[Joey Russ 7,119]

6 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

I  disagree:  there's quite a few who could keel over at any moment.

I’m not saying that there aren’t people that could die at any moment, cause that’s always possible, I’m just saying that there isn’t anyone yet that seems certain to go within the next month. Of course, someone will probably be announced dead tomorrow to end the trend and make my comment irrelevant...

[Grim Up North 3,565]

I've just reviewed the list with my 'could they survive' hat on - on this basis the list could get less than 5 hits.

 

Bracknell, McCain, Jowell - after that who is your go to certainty? 

 

Wouk of the oldies looks most ready to go (at 102 no surprise).

 

Then the rest of the cancer sufferers look capable of surviving to 2019.

The rest of the generally ill and Alzheimic (I made up that word) are always punts as to if they will actually go.

 

Probability suggests that some of the oldies, generally ill and Alzheimic won't make it to 2019 but could be a very quiet year.