Joey Russ 7,220 Posted March 1, 2020 So Joe Biden has won South Carolina, and it’s looking to be by a sizable amount. That said, I still think it’d be hard for him to get that much of a bump for Super Tuesday, especially since he hasn’t campaigned in a Super Tuesday state in over a month. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted March 1, 2020 Yawn, Tom Steyer finally out Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted March 1, 2020 Mayor Pete is out of the presidential race, ending his high high hopes for the nomination. I’ll grab my coat now... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,569 Posted March 2, 2020 6 hours ago, Joey Russ said: Mayor Pete is out of the presidential race, ending his high high hopes for the nomination. I’ll grab my coat now... Does anyone think Biden has cut him a deal to make him his running mate if Biden wins the nomination? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bibliogryphon 9,569 Posted March 2, 2020 Not Amy Klobuchar. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51710945?at_custom3=%40BBCBreaking&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=4E10CBAA-5CB5-11EA-A103-B5AC96E8478F&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=[post+type]&at_medium=custom7 Looks like the centre is coalescing against Sanders Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,963 Posted March 2, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said: Not Amy Klobuchar. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51710945?at_custom3=%40BBCBreaking&at_campaign=64&at_custom4=4E10CBAA-5CB5-11EA-A103-B5AC96E8478F&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom1=[post+type]&at_medium=custom7 Looks like the centre is coalescing against Sanders Yes, she's supposedly endorsing Biden at a rally later tonight. Buttigieg is still coy on this though. They are trying to minimize Sanders' win tomorrow - because after that, the race becomes more favorable for Biden. And Bloomberg might collapse just as quickly as he rose. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted March 2, 2020 All I’ll say is that if Biden is able to win the Democratic nomination it’ll likely be another 4 years of Trump, cause he’s clearly on a cognitive decline. And if Warren stays in the race after Super Tuesday, especially if she loses her home state, then that should eliminate any doubt from those who still think she’s progressive. Cause at that point she’s only playing a spoiler rather than actually helping the progressive cause (I’ve grown sour on her a long time ago, but for those who still thinks she’s progressive, it’ll be as clear as day then). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
YoungWillz 21,024 Posted March 3, 2020 CNN reporting that Mayor Pete and Beto O'Rourke have joined Klobuchar in endorsing Biden. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted March 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, YoungWillz said: CNN reporting that Mayor Pete and Beto O'Rourke have joined Klobuchar in endorsing Biden. I felt like if South Carolina happened before Nevada did like in 2016, I think those endorsements would be a lot more impactful than they’ll actually turn out to be. The fact that this was all done a day before Super Tuesday, I don’t know, I just don’t think it’ll work as well as they hope. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted March 3, 2020 Alright, I said I would be making predictions for Super Tuesday, so here they are: Vermont is obviously super safe for Bernie. No way around it. I think Colorado, Maine, and Utah are very similar cases. So there’s that. I also think Bernie will end the up the winner in California. The thing to watch though is the margin that Bernie wins by. If he’s only able to win by 5 points, not really great. If he’s able to win by 20 points and no one else reaches the 15 point threshold, well that would be amazing. So it’s all about the margin in California. Minnesota was a special case, but now that Klobuchar is out I think Bernie will win it by a comfortable margin (had she not dropped out today, I actually would’ve given her the edge due to her popularity in the state). Then there’s Massachusetts. It’s Bernie against Warren, and it’s looking like Bernie will beat her in the state. That should be enough for her to drop out, but tbh, I think she’s staying as a spoiler candidate at this point. It would be great if she actually dropped out if/when she loses Massachusetts, but I have my doubts. So those are all the states solid for Bernie imo. I think Alabama and Tennessee will produce really good results for Biden. On paper, Oklahoma and Arkansas should produce good results for him too, but something tells me that Biden might actually underperform a bit in those two states. I still expect him to win mind, but if an upset happens I wouldn’t be surprised. So that leaves three states that I think could swing either way. That is, Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia. On paper, those three should be good for Biden, but I know Bernie is making a play in both of those states. So I don’t know how much they really will go for Biden. If Bernie wins all three of those states, it’ll be a massive night for him. If he doesn’t do so well in those states, his night will still be alright, but then it means that it’ll likely head into a contested convention. All I know is that those last three states will really determine how the race will unfold in the end... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted March 4, 2020 Super Tuesday turned out to be a disaster. Biden even winning fecking Minnesota and Massachusetts. It’ll likely be him as the nominee at this point, and almost certainly looks like Trump will win a second term. And that’s even with the fact that Texas still might go to Bernie, but even if that’s true Biden will still likely be the overall winner of the night. And for the record, I never want to here from anyone on here that Warren is a progressive ever again. She’s clearly not. She’s just in the race to be a spoiler at this point. She never cared about progressive change at all. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,385 Posted March 4, 2020 Progressive candidate Elizabeth Warren even came a very distant third in her home state. She’s done. All eyes on Tulsi; one delegate so far! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,385 Posted March 4, 2020 Looks like Sanders is going to win in Cali, it’s close in Maine and Texas with Biden just having the edge so far. Bloomberg said to be “re-evaluating his campaign”. EDIT: Biden wins Texas. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
paddyfool 379 Posted March 4, 2020 So it's now basically a certainty that this election will be contested between two old white men (either Trump vs Sanders or Trump vs Biden). Point of trivia: if the democrats win and their candidate sees out at least half of their first term of office, this will be the first time the USA sees an octogenarian president. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted March 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said: Progressive candidate Elizabeth Warren even came a very distant third in her home state. She’s done. All eyes on Tulsi; one delegate so far! Her campaign said that she’d push on to the next states already despite her abysmal night. It’s clear to me at this point that she’s in it to prevent Sanders on getting the nomination, not to actually be the nominee. Especially now that both Buttigieg and Klobuchar went for Biden Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,385 Posted March 4, 2020 Bloomberg, the poor soul, has spent over half a billion of his very own dollars on his campaign and the only thing he got out of it is American Samoa. Hats off to his comedy writer, that’s absolute gold! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Death Impends 7,955 Posted March 4, 2020 So looks like the Biden-Trump dementia-off is happening? All we need now is the Peter Falk third party campaign... 4 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,963 Posted March 4, 2020 I am somewhat encouraged because it seems they managed to get Bidens medication right. He's become far less doddery with every debate and speech. But you knew that with all the 70+ candidates, the White House would be occupied by a party - not just a geriatric man. Biden will be the friendly face and the administration will be made up by his defeated rivals. I wonder if Bernie wants to be a part of it. It might be best for all if he is, but I think he won't. He's just not a coalition builder. In early stages, I wanted and predicted Warren to win - but while she did great in between, she got all the big decisions wrong. She failed to give a detailed plan for Medicare For All which killed her "policy wonk" image. She got wrong that this only works together with a complete overhaul of the whole system which she wasn't willing to do (And Sanders had the easier job because he never had to quantify his revolution). For about three days, I wanted Bloomberg to win, but ah, some things look good on paper but then reality sets in... He still has the money and organizational skills, but none of Biden's persona. I hope they find a way to combine their strengths. Isn't it strange how Biden (apparently) beat those big organizations, Bloomberg and Warren with their field offices and Sanders with his activists? Maybe organization is overrated. Trump knows this, too. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted March 4, 2020 What this Biden win is, it’s the organization of the establishment to say that’s the one. After he one the state he was expected to win in (South Carolina). It is actually an organization effort for Biden too, just not the Sanders type win. While Biden looking more and more like he’ll be the eventual nominee (who’ll then lose to Trump), I wouldn’t count out Bernie quite yet, as delegate wise I think it’ll basically be a draw due to California and close margins in Texas. Just that he has a very uphill battle to win it, especially if Warren stays in as a spoiler... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,220 Posted March 4, 2020 Btw, Bloomberg has dropped so that last part of the last sentence is especially true now... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
gcreptile 10,963 Posted March 4, 2020 Warren's spoiling factor is smaller than one might believe. She does better with women than men. Bernie does better with men. There's been a bit of animosity between the camps, so not many Warren people would go over. And she'll not be much of a factor anyway. Her share of the vote will generally drop below 10%. I guess her intent is to collect a triple-digit number of delegates through suburban women, the lgbt vote and liberal-minded policy nerds. Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Washington State, Oregon... She might just remain because she's two terms younger than her rivals (dementia vs. heart issues) and a term younger than Trump. Also, Sanders was once willing to consider her for VP - she might think of herself as a unity candidate at a contested convention. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DeathClock 379 Posted March 4, 2020 I rather vote Trump than Sanders. Sanders is too liberal for me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
