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Derby Dead Pool 2020

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The top 3 had him. I think it opens up a bit of a gap between them and everyone else?

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Weirdly the death came as I was watching a Chopped repeat featuring 2019 DDP alum/key player Fatima Ali.

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Not that I wouldn't like to win, but it already gives me a good enough feeling to finally reverse my downward trend... you know, to show some improvement finally.

 

The Love Boat number of hits:

2016: 13 hits

2017: 12 hits

2018: 11 hits

2019: 10 hits

 

2020: 11 hits

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I wonder if I’ll finally get over 12 hits total in 2020? There’s enough names that it’s plausible, although the clock is slowly ticking...

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87 years reduces her total but at first glance on the DDP site looks mike more than 70 teams one way or another have RBG. 

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5 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

87 years reduces her total but at first glance on the DDP site looks mike more than 70 teams one way or another have RBG. 

 

Drop 40 bonus = 9 points not to be sniffed at when on the table, imo.

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^^^^ already updated!

 

So, how are we doing? I can see the finish line, but I am not through yet. Here's my remaining team:

Ady Barkan - the ALS has progressed enough now that any health crisis would kill him, but he doesn't look as frail as Fernando Ricksen did in the end (but then, who did). A better comparison might be Joost Van Der Westhuizen? Both are/were frequent tweeters. And Barkan will tweet until he dies. I think he is currently energized by the election. He's 4 years into the disease and would have been a late-year hit in any case. So can he last 3 more months? It's possible, it's also possible he dies tomorrow. Hit probability: 40%

Tim Bilton - hanging in there, currently in treatment. Good news last month push him into 2021 after all. Hit probability: 20%

Pete Felton - a low chance of a very late obit through the Birmingham music awards in November. But will they actually take place? Will a QO source cover them and will Felton be mentioned? I give it a 5% chance of happening.

David Gulpilil - miraculously still alive. I am still 100% sure he will be a hit this year. Hit probability: 100%

Yoo Sang-Chul - he was looking good in June, BUT: his reinstatement as football coach of his club doesn't seem to have happened. Are there the dreaded complications? It's stage IV pancreatic cancer after all. Still very much in danger, but maybe not this year? Hit probability: 30%

Tom Smith - Two updates in the past year, both with good news. Yes, it looks like he is going to survive the year. It's a bit of a shock. Very Bracknell-like. Hit probability: 15%

Alex Trebek: He has stage IV pancreatic cancer, and still looks very stable. I mean, already before that, he didn't look like 80. Good genes. If he wasn't as ill as he is, I would rule him out as a fatality for this year, but pancreatic cancer has a chance of killing someone within weeks - hit probability 25%.

Gianluca Vialli - Healed - he survived two fights with pancreatic cancer. My heartfelt congratulations - I mean, he really looked like shit a year ago. Well done. - 5%

 

So yeah, I am looking at getting maybe 14 hits, i.e. Gulpilil + someone else. If it's Ady Barkan, I have won, because he's mine, and mine alone - The others, including David Gulpilil, were picked by almost everyone, too.

The canon this year has disappointed a little - Gulpilil, Trebek, Tom Smith and Yoo Sang-Chul are all still alive. Tim Bilton and Vialli are half-canon. A bit like Lee Kerslake and Pat Smullen.

I was lucky to have the trifecta of Banali, Smullen and Kerslake - which, I think, nobody else did. 

 

All these shared survivors makes the remaining race relatively simple to calculate - for example, me vs Joey comes down to: Ady Barkan (and that very unlikely Felton obit) vs. Susan Bayh/Gavin Robertson/Sylvain Sylvain/Jana Bennett.

If I get Barkan, I am 27 points ahead - even Bayh+Bennett+Sylvain only lead to a tie, and my hits are younger. If I get Barkan, it's over.

 

Susan Bayh: I've heard nothing of her lately. Evan Bayh quit social media in 2019, including twitter. We can rule out the typical 18 months-death of glioblastoma, maybe she has a less aggressive version? Would she even obit now? Daily Mail or bust? Well, I don't know. BUT: I can't rule it out.

Gavin Robertson: I tried to find out yesterday, if he ever had glioblastoma, or whether it was "only" normal brain cancer. In fact, I am not sure? He's back at work now, and by all accounts, is doing relatively well.

Sylvain Sylvain: There was a fundraiser in spring this year, but otherwise I heard nothing. Is he doing well or not? If I recall correctly, it's a less aggressive cancer - but even they can strike, so again: I can't rule it out.

Jana Bennett: I saw two updates: She said they caught her glioblastoma early, and then she had a NYT op-ed. The 18 months of glioblastoma would have carried her into 2021 anyway, but with the early detection, I think it's a relatively unlikely hit this year.

 

However, in the end I have to conclude that a Susan Bayh/Sylvain Sylvain combo is what I fear the most - because I can't rule it out! And it seems the most likely option to beat me with only two hits. All the other teams need at least three! For Death Impends, as an example, Jimmy Carter and Gavin Robertson would not be enough, because I win on average age. So he needs Carter + Susan Bayh + ... Belinda Sykes? But she's still tweeting as much as ever (after a short break, possibly because she was in treatment).

 

I think the second-biggest threat to me is actually RadGuy. It depends on how ill Peter Tobin actually is. He might also get Susan Bayh - and then he needs Bernard Tapie, but then that guy has exaggerated his illness for years.

 

Final thought: If Tom Smith had died, RadGuy would be out of the running, but "I will not die, it's the world that will end!" might be the front-runner! He could beat me with Smith and either "Superstar" Billy Graham or Sally Sheridan. 

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11 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Gavin Robertson: I tried to find out yesterday, if he ever had glioblastoma, or whether it was "only" normal brain cancer. In fact, I am not sure? He's back at work now, and by all accounts, is doing relatively well.

The cancer is actually glioblastoma (mentions it at about 5:10 in this video). Although he is still active with his job: 

 

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54 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

^^^^ already updated!

 

So, how are we doing? I can see the finish line, but I am not through yet. Here's my remaining team:

Ady Barkan - the ALS has progressed enough now that any health crisis would kill him, but he doesn't look as frail as Fernando Ricksen did in the end (but then, who did). A better comparison might be Joost Van Der Westhuizen? Both are/were frequent tweeters. And Barkan will tweet until he dies. I think he is currently energized by the election. He's 4 years into the disease and would have been a late-year hit in any case. So can he last 3 more months? It's possible, it's also possible he dies tomorrow. Hit probability: 40%

Tim Bilton - hanging in there, currently in treatment. Good news last month push him into 2021 after all. Hit probability: 20%

Pete Felton - a low chance of a very late obit through the Birmingham music awards in November. But will they actually take place? Will a QO source cover them and will Felton be mentioned? I give it a 5% chance of happening.

David Gulpilil - miraculously still alive. I am still 100% sure he will be a hit this year. Hit probability: 100%

Yoo Sang-Chul - he was looking good in June, BUT: his reinstatement as football coach of his club doesn't seem to have happened. Are there the dreaded complications? It's stage IV pancreatic cancer after all. Still very much in danger, but maybe not this year? Hit probability: 30%

Tom Smith - Two updates in the past year, both with good news. Yes, it looks like he is going to survive the year. It's a bit of a shock. Very Bracknell-like. Hit probability: 15%

Alex Trebek: He has stage IV pancreatic cancer, and still looks very stable. I mean, already before that, he didn't look like 80. Good genes. If he wasn't as ill as he is, I would rule him out as a fatality for this year, but pancreatic cancer has a chance of killing someone within weeks - hit probability 25%.

Gianluca Vialli - Healed - he survived two fights with pancreatic cancer. My heartfelt congratulations - I mean, he really looked like shit a year ago. Well done. - 5%

 

So yeah, I am looking at getting maybe 14 hits, i.e. Gulpilil + someone else. If it's Ady Barkan, I have won, because he's mine, and mine alone - The others, including David Gulpilil, were picked by almost everyone, too.

The canon this year has disappointed a little - Gulpilil, Trebek, Tom Smith and Yoo Sang-Chul are all still alive. Tim Bilton and Vialli are half-canon. A bit like Lee Kerslake and Pat Smullen.

I was lucky to have the trifecta of Banali, Smullen and Kerslake - which, I think, nobody else did. 

 

All these shared survivors makes the remaining race relatively simple to calculate - for example, me vs Joey comes down to: Ady Barkan (and that very unlikely Felton obit) vs. Susan Bayh/Gavin Robertson/Sylvain Sylvain/Jana Bennett.

If I get Barkan, I am 27 points ahead - even Bayh+Bennett+Sylvain only lead to a tie, and my hits are younger. If I get Barkan, it's over.

 

Susan Bayh: I've heard nothing of her lately. Evan Bayh quit social media in 2019, including twitter. We can rule out the typical 18 months-death of glioblastoma, maybe she has a less aggressive version? Would she even obit now? Daily Mail or bust? Well, I don't know. BUT: I can't rule it out.

Gavin Robertson: I tried to find out yesterday, if he ever had glioblastoma, or whether it was "only" normal brain cancer. In fact, I am not sure? He's back at work now, and by all accounts, is doing relatively well.

Sylvain Sylvain: There was a fundraiser in spring this year, but otherwise I heard nothing. Is he doing well or not? If I recall correctly, it's a less aggressive cancer - but even they can strike, so again: I can't rule it out.

Jana Bennett: I saw two updates: She said they caught her glioblastoma early, and then she had a NYT op-ed. The 18 months of glioblastoma would have carried her into 2021 anyway, but with the early detection, I think it's a relatively unlikely hit this year.

 

However, in the end I have to conclude that a Susan Bayh/Sylvain Sylvain combo is what I fear the most - because I can't rule it out! And it seems the most likely option to beat me with only two hits. All the other teams need at least three! For Death Impends, as an example, Jimmy Carter and Gavin Robertson would not be enough, because I win on average age. So he needs Carter + Susan Bayh + ... Belinda Sykes? But she's still tweeting as much as ever (after a short break, possibly because she was in treatment).

 

I think the second-biggest threat to me is actually RadGuy. It depends on how ill Peter Tobin actually is. He might also get Susan Bayh - and then he needs Bernard Tapie, but then that guy has exaggerated his illness for years.

 

Final thought: If Tom Smith had died, RadGuy would be out of the running, but "I will not die, it's the world that will end!" might be the front-runner! He could beat me with Smith and either "Superstar" Billy Graham or Sally Sheridan. 


Hmmm reading this makes me think my route to victory might be not much harder than all those mentioned. Obviously I require my joker Tom Smith to die and also Liz Clarke Saul to get a QO in the SPOTY roundup but that would see me gain 26 points on you and leave me 6 behind. I have a lot of differentials who can score 7 points.

 

Nobby Stiles

George Alagiah

Sinisa Mihailovic

Ernie Moss

Bernard Tapie

Greg Gilbert

 

Not the greatest selection but Nobby has got to die some time.

 

Your survivors are better than the above list but the shorter the time window the more random the deaths can become.

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Tom Smith is a bit like Leah Bracknell or Marieke Vervoort. An obvious joker who just doesn't die in the year they are "supposed" to, and so the whole game is changed.

Alagiah is back on TV, Mihajlovic is recovering. Ernie Moss has the blessing of life because he's on my "just 20 hits, no going for score" B-team that has been a complete disaster this year.

Bernard Tapie might be a possibility, but he can't be trusted. Greg Gilbert has picked up treatment again. He seems okay, so far, although he did mention health problems a week ago on Instagram.

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There was a reason Chris Doleman was joker choice I thought was the best for a while. He looked frail throughout the year and was basically at the two year mark by the end of the year. 
Even though I did end up picking Tom Smith, I always thought there was a chance he could sneak into 2021. That was before I knew about him slurring his words mind you, but I think a first year cancer name is too risky to joker unless it’s something like they are entering hospice. 
My biggest regret is probably picking Gianluca Vialli tbh. Unlike most of the other names I ended up picking, he didn’t seem like the best choice out there, but I ended up going with him defensively. Lee Kerslake, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and Terry DeCarlo were all considered during the last week, but I cut them for various reasons. I would be in a much better position if I picked one of them, but c’est la vie (Sultan Qaboos was another last week cut, though if he ended up on my team it would’ve been over John Lewis). 

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It's funny how I thought I was a no hoper due to not picking Tom Smith, yet it seems to have been a wise call. But I also shot myself in the foot assuming Kerslake would be safe. My differentials are overall too stable for me to have much of a chance, but then, I've put a lot less thought into my team now that I've won, so I've exceeded personal expectations if anything.

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4 hours ago, msc said:

 

 

Aye, hopeful of a credible finish though my joker - Tom Smith - has been a disappointment to many people, vast tonnage of DDP points riding on him. 

 

Outside chance one of my list of the lost - Belso - might yet score in the manner of Jim Russell who netted DDP points long after his death when BBC Sport posted a list of significant motorsport figures who died in the year. 

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I'm just saying, a Lee Noble death+QO brings me to 2nd

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Robert Graetz is one for the list of the missed. Last picked in 2019

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Currently on 16th position, but gaps are small. 

Here are my survivors:

 

Tom Smith (Joker) - If this man doesn't go down. I don't have any chance at all. 
George Alagiah - Back on TV? F*ck.
Noel Conway - Slowly dying, maybe too slowly...
David Gulpilil - Why isn't this guy dead already?
Yoo Sang-Chul - Clearly has to go at some point, but maybe not this year.
Leon Spinks - I'd say it is very unlikely for him to survive this year. 90% chance that he dies before 2021.
Nobby Stiles - Haven't seen any news about him. Could go this year, could go later.
Alex Trebek - 50/50 chances.
Jean-Louis Trintignant - According to sources should be dead already. What is going on?
Bill Turnbull - Seems like not going this year...
Eddie Van Halen - Nobody really knows when...

So... if I get Smith, Gulpilil, Spinks and maybe 1-2 extras from the list, do I have any chance to win? I doubt it... so better luck next year!

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As we approach the final 3 months of 2020, here is my analysis for my remaining 10 picks:

 

George Alagiah: Cancer spread and contracted Covid-19 back in March, but back at work. Could see 2021. 45%

David Gulpilil: How is he not dead already? 100%

Giorgio Napolitano: Old, frail, wheelchair bound. Could well see 2021 though. 50%

Olivia Newton-John: Has Breast cancer, could've sworn she was a dead cert two years ago, but still kicking. 40%

Isabel Peron: Nearing 90 next year, no new updates that I could find. 20%

Prince Philip: Will he? Won't he? 65%

Nobby Stiles: No updates on his health recently. Could be the year he actually goes, but I wouldn't get my hopes up too high. 50%

Bernard Tapie: Cancer worsening, no new updates recently, though he could see 2021. 45%

Alex Trebek: Pancreatic cancer stable, chemo seems to be working, back to hosting Jeopardy. Pancreatic cancer has a small chance of killing someone immediately, ala Frankie Banali and RBG. 35%

Jean-Louis Trintignant: No new updates I could find on his health recently. Wouldn't be surprised if he went this year. 45%

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So, the current state of Carkers Convention suggests last years single figure finish won't be matched - hoping to land inside the top 50, where I'm just hanging on atm, though. Tom Smith is the most important factor, amazed he's still here frankly and fair play to his fighting spirit. Few others - Gulpilil, Stiles and Spinks - where I agree with comments above and elsehwere they're a version of the usual suspects though Hitchon has only been picked by three teams. I mentioned before, BBC Sport often lists all significant motorsport deaths at the end of the year which might still allow Belso to pay out. Occleshaw is List of the Lost material without hope of redemption now. I'd be amazed if all the ten survivors see the end of the game.

 

 

Tom Smith - jkr

Daniel Arap Moi - DEAD

Frankie Banali – DEAD

Tom Belso – DEAD (No q/o)

James Church

Judy Dyble – DEAD 

David Gulpilil

Nick Hitchon

Garry Holmes

Terry Jones - DEAD

Lee Kerslake - DEAD

Michael McKevitt

Tony Occleshaw – DEAD (no q/o)

Genesis P. Orridge - DEAD

Qaboos bin Said Al Said - DEAD

Pat Smullen - DEAD

Leon Spinks

Nobby Stiles

Andrea Swift 

Peter Tobin

 

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29 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/sep/24/sir-harold-evans-trail-blazing-newspaper-editor-dies-aged-92

 

British newspaper editor  Harold Evans a hit for me in my Gooseberry Crumble team. 

 

First off, congrates.

 

Second, 205th hit of 2020 (confirmed). Here's the numbers to start keeping an eye on:

 

> 2020 - 205
> 2019 - 253
> 2018 - 247
> 2017 - 254
> 2016 - 275
> 2015 - 239
> 2014 - 247
> 2013 - 219

 

2016 is the DDP record holder for most deaths and it reached 205th on the 28th September, so 2020 is currently 4 days ahead. These things don't have a pattern but I thought that'd interest the stats fans.

 

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47 minutes ago, msc said:

 

First off, congrates.

 

Second, 205th hit of 2020 (confirmed). Here's the numbers to start keeping an eye on:

 

> 2020 - 205
> 2019 - 253
> 2018 - 247
> 2017 - 254
> 2016 - 275
> 2015 - 239
> 2014 - 247
> 2013 - 219

 

2016 is the DDP record holder for most deaths and it reached 205th on the 28th September, so 2020 is currently 4 days ahead. These things don't have a pattern but I thought that'd interest the stats fans.

 

Out of  curiosity how many different names were entered by deadpoolers  in 2020 in   total in the DDP and secondly how many of them are unique and is the proportion of uniques rising year on year ?

 

Thanks @msc 

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