By -Election Bingo 2019-2024

[Sean 6,322]

Update for the death of Dame Cheryl Gillan:

 

nantonion2013:40

Bibliogryphon:30

Gooseberry Crumble:30

GraveDanger:30

Sean:30

The Old Crem:10

 

No one appears to have picked Neil Gray.

 

 

 

 

[Sir Creep 7,070]

Ok I picked every Tory there was. And no hits.  You mean to tell me Tories are outliving their counterparts?  Christ Almighty it sucks to be over there these days.  Lochdown and Tories lasting forever.

I take it Neil is a different Gray than my Gray.  Lol

[msc 18,443]

9 minutes ago, Sir Creep said:

Ok I picked every Tory there was. And no hits.  You mean to tell me Tories are outliving their counterparts?  Christ Almighty it sucks to be over there these days.  Lochdown and Tories lasting forever.

I take it Neil is a different Gray than my Gray.  Lol

 

Checking it, you picked a Gray who is a Tory MP for Wiltshire (very south of England near Bath, I think) - the Gray who resigned is an SNP guy for Airdrie near Glasgow.

[Sean 6,322]

Yeah you picked James Gray not Neil Gray.Neil Gray I confess to never having heard of before he stepped down.

 

 

 

 

 

[msc 18,443]

4 minutes ago, Sean said:

Yeah you picked James Gray not Neil Gray.Neil Gray I confess to never having heard of before he stepped down.

 

 

tbh neither had I and his seat is within 20 miles of here!

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

Anyone had Bately and Speen?

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

On 09/05/2021 at 21:02, Bibliogryphon said:

Anyone had Bately and Speen?

 

They're getting their third MP in 5 years. Tracy Brabin took the place of her friend, Jo Cox. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

On 10/05/2021 at 00:24, RoverAndOut said:

They're getting their third MP in 5 years. Tracy Brabin took the place of her friend, Jo Cox. 

 

And further to this, Jo Cox's sister now wants to stand in the seat at the by-election as the Labour candidate. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-57090767

[YoungWillz 21,044]

Airdrie and Shotts held by the SNP. Increased vote, reduced majority. Yep, system works, ha!

 

Also, the writ was moved for Cheryl Gillan's seat the other day.

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

3 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

Airdrie and Shotts held by the SNP. Increased vote, reduced majority. Yep, system works, ha!

 

Also, the writ was moved for Cheryl Gillan's seat the other day.

That one should be a walk in the park. Hasn't not returned a Conservative with less than 50% in its history

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

That one should be a walk in the park. Hasn't not returned a Conservative with less than 50% in its history

 

Yeah, but with the issues with Brexit, 150,000 coronavirus deaths, an incredibly dodgy Prime Minister and a lobbying scandal, you can never be sur...oh wait. You can. 

[Sean 6,322]

Apologies this hasn`t been updated.Been swamped.I will update Monday or Tuesday at the latest.Apologies

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

On 14/05/2021 at 15:13, Bibliogryphon said:

That one should be a walk in the park. Hasn't not returned a Conservative with less than 50% in its history

 

Famous last words! It's like the good old days, when the Lib Dems were the by-election kings... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-57472032

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

Wakefield Conservative MP charged with historic sexual assault on 15 year old boy.

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

Sir Geoffrey Donaldson has suggested he will give up his seat at Westminster to leas the DUP from Stormont.

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

Leicester East MP Claudia Webbe (currently Independent but elected as Labour (suspended)) is currently undergoing a trial for harassment

[YoungWillz 21,044]

James Brokenshire's death will lead to one of those by-elections. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58844606

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

5 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

James Brokenshire's death will lead to one of those by-elections. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-58844606

This is Edward Heath's old seat but like Chesham & Amersham it is probably a hot bed of old school tories and Heath was pro European

 

On paper it should be a walk in the park for the Tories but it is a massive pitfall if they lose it.

 

I reckon Labour will run a low key campaign and allow the Lib Dems a clear shot

[Ulitzer95 12,596]

4 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

This is Edward Heath's old seat but like Chesham & Amersham it is probably a hot bed of old school tories and Heath was pro European

 

On paper it should be a walk in the park for the Tories but it is a massive pitfall if they lose it.

 

I reckon Labour will run a low key campaign and allow the Lib Dems a clear shot

I think you're confusing the demographics. Chesham and Amersham voted 55% Remain in the referendum. Old Bexley and Sidcup voted 64% Leave.

Why would Labour allow the Libs a clear shot at anything? They have no pact nor sympathies for the Lib cause. They didn't even do that in Chesham – Labour campaigned hard yet it was the voters who strategically switched to the Libs.

This is Old Bexley and Sidcup though:
 

General election 2019: Old Bexley and Sidcup^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	James Brokenshire	29,786	64.5	+3.1
	Labour	Dave Tingle	10,834	23.5	-5.8
	Liberal Democrats	Simone Reynolds	3,822	8.3	+5.0
	Green	Matt Browne	1,477	3.2	+1.5

The Libs are absolutely nowhere in this seat. It's not theirs to win if it does switch hands.

[YoungWillz 21,044]

It will come at an unfortunate time for the Government though.

 

They will hang on I'd say, after all the hardest hit at the moment are the red wall seats in the North. Imagine...a North South divide under the Conservatives...an absolute shock....

 

Lose this and Boris may have to go....ah the dreams...

[msc 18,443]

It's a Tory safe seat with Labour the only vaguely credible challenger. Although a lot of that might have been the fact that Heath and Brokenshire were well liked locally, that gap is far too big to shift. It's bigger than Chesham and Amersham, in fact, Old Bexley and Sidcup is within the top 100 safest seats in Britain. 

 

 

[msc 18,443]

103rd actually, not counting Northern Irish seats. We have a lot of safe seats in the UK!

 

(Still, about 100 places higher up the list for Tory majorities than C&A!)

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

1 hour ago, Ulitzer95 said:

I think you're confusing the demographics. Chesham and Amersham voted 55% Remain in the referendum. Old Bexley and Sidcup voted 64% Leave.

Why would Labour allow the Libs a clear shot at anything? They have no pact nor sympathies for the Lib cause. They didn't even do that in Chesham – Labour campaigned hard yet it was the voters who strategically switched to the Libs.

This is Old Bexley and Sidcup though:
 

General election 2019: Old Bexley and Sidcup^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Conservative	James Brokenshire	29,786	64.5	+3.1
	Labour	Dave Tingle	10,834	23.5	-5.8
	Liberal Democrats	Simone Reynolds	3,822	8.3	+5.0
	Green	Matt Browne	1,477	3.2	+1.5

The Libs are absolutely nowhere in this seat. It's not theirs to win if it does switch hands.

 

Fair enough. I was just thinking that Ted was a staunch European and assumed that this had a similar demographic to others in the near London areas

 

Labour came within 3,500 in 1997.

 

But Johnson should not lose this unless things get very bad

[The Old Crem 3,588]

On 27/09/2021 at 13:37, Bibliogryphon said:

Leicester East MP Claudia Webbe (currently Independent but elected as Labour (suspended)) is currently undergoing a trial for harassment

Been found guilty. Not sure if the sentence is likely to be long enough to trigger expulsion or if she will have to resign or face a recall petition for there to be a by election. The Tories surged there last time but that was enhanced because of local politics and issues about the Labour Party and voters of Indian background so it’s hard to predict what will happen. Suspect if Labour do lose it Keir Starmer will come under a lot of pressure himself. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,579]

3 hours ago, The Old Crem said:

Been found guilty. Not sure if the sentence is likely to be long enough to trigger expulsion or if she will have to resign or face a recall petition for there to be a by election. The Tories surged there last time but that was enhanced because of local politics and issues about the Labour Party and voters of Indian background so it’s hard to predict what will happen. Suspect if Labour do lose it Keir Starmer will come under a lot of pressure himself. 

 

I think that she may come under pressure to resign her seat but may face a recall petition.  Should be a fairly straightforward win for Labour depending on the candidate