By -Election Bingo 2019-2024

[YoungWillz 19,067]

Labour seem to have held Birmingham Erdington. I think I heard a majority of just over 3,000. It's all got lost in the Ukraine nonsense.

[Ulitzer95 11,046]

32 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Labour seem to have held Birmingham Erdington. I think I heard a majority of just over 3,000. It's all got lost in the Ukraine nonsense.

"The Ukraine nonsense" is the exact type of Freudian slip an MP would come out with and then you'd condemn them for being heartless or out of touch. 

[YoungWillz 19,067]

9 hours ago, Ulitzer95 said:

"The Ukraine nonsense" is the exact type of Freudian slip an MP would come out with and then you'd condemn them for being heartless or out of touch. 

Maybe I'm just too educated. Quite clearly the attack on a nuclear power plant which was what was being reported at the time was utter nonsense.

 

Maybe not in the way the masses would use the word - but then I'm not an MP and don't have to be careful about what I say.  Still happy to attack a politician on that basis though if it ever comes up.

[Toast 14,844]

3 hours ago, YoungWillz said:

Maybe I'm just too educated. Quite clearly the attack on a nuclear power plant which was what was being reported at the time was utter nonsense.

 

Maybe not in the way the masses would use the word - but then I'm not an MP and don't have to be careful about what I say.  Still happy to attack a politician on that basis though if it ever comes up.

 

Still an insensitive and poor choice of words.

[YoungWillz 19,067]

5 minutes ago, Toast said:

 

Still an insensitive and poor choice of words.

Sadly, you don't understand at all.

[Toast 14,844]

7 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

Sadly, you don't understand at all.

 

Back atcha.

[maryportfuncity 10,017]

So, one MP's son just put  himself - literarally - in the Russian firing line. Dunno where else to post it, frankly, not a possibility for 2023 and definitely not a casualty of the war, yet.

 

https://www.kentonline.co.uk/maidstone/news/mps-son-joins-war-in-ukraine-263662/

[Bibliogryphon 8,660]

The trial of Wakefield MP Imran Ahman Khan (Con) for sexual assault of a 15 year old boy begins on 28th March

 

If found guilty a custodial sentence of greater than 12 months triggers a by-election but one less than 12 months could trigger a recall petition

 

Labour are already sounding out potential candidates according to Labour List

[RoverAndOut 3,472]

It appears not to have been mentioned here that the Conservative MP for Bridgend Jamie Wallis is under investigation by South Wales police for failing to stop at the scene of an accident.

 

That was in November (reported December) but the reason it has resurfaced is that he has today revealed he is suffering from gender dysphoria and failed to stop due to his state of mind. He says he has also been raped and blackmailed.

 

Whether this announcement has anything to do with the Prime Minister making a predictably crass trans joke at a meeting last night would be up to Mr Wallis to answer.

 

South Wales police say investigations are ongoing.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,211]

 

Conservative MP David Warburton  has the party whip withdrawn after allegations of  sexual assault against three women and taking cocaine.  Also apparently  has questionable involvement with a Russian businessman. 

The reports are early stage but potentially   might lead to another by election  if his situation worsens.

[Sir Creep 7,013]

I actually have Warburton on my team.  May be my first hit in this DP. Coolio!

[TQR 12,159]

21 hours ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Conservative MP David Warburton  has the party whip withdrawn after allegations of  sexual assault against three women and taking cocaine.  Also apparently  has questionable involvement with a Russian businessman. 

The reports are early stage but potentially   might lead to another by election  if his situation worsens.

Warburton admitted to hospital for stress.

 

[RoverAndOut 3,472]

On 02/04/2022 at 18:55, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Conservative MP David Warburton  has the party whip withdrawn after allegations of  sexual assault against three women and taking cocaine.  Also apparently  has questionable involvement with a Russian businessman. 

The reports are early stage but potentially   might lead to another by election  if his situation worsens.

 

Do you remember when by-elections used to happen due to MPs dying rather than due to endless malfeasance?

[The Old Crem 3,174]

On 16/03/2022 at 15:40, Bibliogryphon said:

The trial of Wakefield MP Imran Ahman Khan (Con) for sexual assault of a 15 year old boy begins on 28th March

 

If found guilty a custodial sentence of greater than 12 months triggers a by-election but one less than 12 months could trigger a recall petition

 

Labour are already sounding out potential candidates according to Labour List

He has just Been found guilty. Nit sure when sentencing is or if he will resign before then. 

[TQR 12,159]

Sex offender Khan has resigned as Tory MP for Wakefield. By-election to follow.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,211]

4 hours ago, TQR said:

Sex offender Khan has resigned as Tory MP for Wakefield. By-election to follow.

Gosh this is shaping up to be a much more eventful  and active parliament  than I expected!

I am getting slight  deja vu of the 1992-1997 parliament and  chaos on and in the governments side  as happened in the decaying dying years of John Majors premiership /government. 

[msc 17,762]

5 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Gosh this is shaping up to be a much more eventful  and active parliament  than I expected!

I am getting slight  deja vu of the 1992-1997 parliament and  chaos on and in the governments side  as happened in the decaying dying years of John Majors premiership /government. 

 

Blackboard musing:

 

Last two times the UK has changed governments, the incumbent government has lost over 100 seats to the opposition. (Yes, I know Wiki claims otherwise but Wiki doesn't count by-elections holds as gains, whereas the UK system does as it counts election night gains as "from the last election".) 

 

Maggie T only managed 62 (only, yes and again not counting by-election gains in the 1974-9 parliament held by the Tories) but those were in 2 party election days, the liberals being a much smaller bunch, and the Nats doing disastrously that election.

 

Heath gained 77, Wilson (64) about 60, Attlee 239 which is the Jeanne Calment of modern elections. 

 

imo Maggie 1979 gains or better and the Tories are out of power next time. 

[RoverAndOut 3,472]

13 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Gosh this is shaping up to be a much more eventful  and active parliament  than I expected!

I am getting slight  deja vu of the 1992-1997 parliament and  chaos on and in the governments side  as happened in the decaying dying years of John Majors premiership /government. 

 

I stopped playing this game, simply because I couldn't see a scenario where there would be more than one or two by-elections per Parliament, as there were fewer MPs dying than in previous decades. I never anticipated that there'd be scandal after scandal leading to resignations and recalls, while I think there's been more deaths than in recent Parliaments too (Gillan, Brokenshire, Dromey...I may be missing some). More fool me. 

[msc 17,762]

Just now, RoverAndOut said:

 

I stopped playing this game, simply because I couldn't see a scenario where there would be more than one or two by-elections per Parliament, as there were fewer MPs dying than in previous decades. I never anticipated that there'd be scandal after scandal leading to resignations and recalls, while I think there's been more deaths than in recent Parliaments too (Gillan, Brokenshire, Dromey...I may be missing some). More fool me. 

 

Poor old David Amess. 

 

Scandals, deaths, murders and that's just in the last two years.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,211]

7 minutes ago, msc said:

 

Blackboard musing:

 

Last two times the UK has changed governments, the incumbent government has lost over 100 seats to the opposition. (Yes, I know Wiki claims otherwise but Wiki doesn't count by-elections holds as gains, whereas the UK system does as it counts election night gains as "from the last election".) 

 

Maggie T only managed 62 (only, yes and again not counting by-election gains in the 1974-9 parliament held by the Tories) but those were in 2 party election days, the liberals being a much smaller bunch, and the Nats doing disastrously that election.

 

Heath gained 77, Wilson (64) about 60, Attlee 239 which is the Jeanne Calment of modern elections. 

 

imo Maggie 1979 gains or better and the Tories are out of power next time. 

The main thing that complicates the picture  and calculation is Scotland  presently being electoral  wilderness  for  Labour  and the other main  parties having a limited foothold there.

Can Labour win without  Scotland?

[RoverAndOut 3,472]

12 minutes ago, msc said:

Blackboard musing:

Last two times the UK has changed governments, the incumbent government has lost over 100 seats to the opposition. (Yes, I know Wiki claims otherwise but Wiki doesn't count by-elections holds as gains, whereas the UK system does as it counts election night gains as "from the last election".) 

Maggie T only managed 62 (only, yes and again not counting by-election gains in the 1974-9 parliament held by the Tories) but those were in 2 party election days, the liberals being a much smaller bunch, and the Nats doing disastrously that election.

Heath gained 77, Wilson (64) about 60, Attlee 239 which is the Jeanne Calment of modern elections. 

imo Maggie 1979 gains or better and the Tories are out of power next time. 

 

Worth noting that Mrs T was the first female PM too, there must have been at least a few seats that stayed in Labour hands for that reason.

 

2 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

The main thing that complicates the picture  and calculation is Scotland  presently being electoral  wilderness  for  Labour  and the other main  parties having a limited foothold there.

Can Labour win without  Scotland?

 

I was actually reading an article a few days ago suggesting Labour are having a bit of a revival under Anas Sarwar (@msc is better placed than me to suggest if there's any truth to that). The maths say that if the Tories lose 38 seats (current numbers) they'd lose their majority. According to the majority post-2019 election, they'd need to lose 44 seats to lose their majority. That's not the same as losing power, because as you say, the opposition is more divided than in the past. If Labour could even get back to 10 seats in Scotland, that would help enormously. But I'm struggling to see a situation where the Tories aren't the largest party in terms of seats. What would really help is if Labour could at least be the biggest party in the popular vote, that would give them the same moral right to form a government that Cameron claimed in 2010.

[msc 17,762]

28 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

The main thing that complicates the picture  and calculation is Scotland  presently being electoral  wilderness  for  Labour  and the other main  parties having a limited foothold there.

Can Labour win without  Scotland?

 

Yes. Of Labour's top 100 target seats, only 12 are in Scotland. And if they are doing well to dig high into that number, they'll be winning seats above 100 too (because "swing" is never as universal as the pundits try to pretend before the election night). 

 

Also - I know Scots. If they think they can oust the Tories you may see a few seats going to Labour here. Not many, mind you (I'd say 10 is the most on a fantastic night for them). We'll have a better idea of the Scottish situation after the locals next month though - see if Labour go back in 2nd place in Scotland or not. 

[msc 17,762]

2 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Worth noting that Mrs T was the first female PM too, there must have been at least a few seats that stayed in Labour hands for that reason.

 

 

I was actually reading an article a few days ago suggesting Labour are having a bit of a revival under Anas Sarwar (@msc is better placed than me to suggest if there's any truth to that). The maths say that if the Tories lose 38 seats (current numbers) they'd lose their majority. According to the majority post-2019 election, they'd need to lose 44 seats to lose their majority. That's not the same as losing power, because as you say, the opposition is more divided than in the past. If Labour could even get back to 10 seats in Scotland, that would help enormously. But I'm struggling to see a situation where the Tories aren't the largest party in terms of seats. What would really help is if Labour could at least be the biggest party in the popular vote, that would give them the same moral right to form a government that Cameron claimed in 2010.

 

iirc Maggie T in 1979 is the ONLY party leader in the last 50 years to have won an election in which they weren't leading on "who makes the best Prime Minister" personal polling. 

 

Re - Scottish Labour, uh time will tell, but they just about held their position last year, and they are up a fair bit in recent polling so watch those locals. 

 

" I'm struggling to see a situation where the Tories aren't the largest party in terms of seats." - I'm not foolish enough to use the L word here, but certainly Labour having the most seats feels more possible now than it did a year ago. But 2 years till the next election is a bloody long time.

[TQR 12,159]

1 hour ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Gosh this is shaping up to be a much more eventful  and active parliament  than I expected!

I am getting slight  deja vu of the 1992-1997 parliament and  chaos on and in the governments side  as happened in the decaying dying years of John Majors premiership /government. 

Yes yes, I remember the abject failure of a Major govt slipping and slipping until it was put out of its misery when that heavy election defeat happened…er, when I was 1.

 

Back then though, it’d have been inconceivable that a law breaker and serial liar, in particular one who’s so blatant with it, would be able to keep hold of a great office of state for any length or time.
 

In this unsettled, post-truth, heavily polarised world we live in today, I feel like these eventful parliaments are most likely the new norm.

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,211]

1 hour ago, msc said:

 

Yes. Of Labour's top 100 target seats, only 12 are in Scotland. And if they are doing well to dig high into that number, they'll be winning seats above 100 too (because "swing" is never as universal as the pundits try to pretend before the election night). 

 

Also - I know Scots. If they think they can oust the Tories you may see a few seats going to Labour here. Not many, mind you (I'd say 10 is the most on a fantastic night for them). We'll have a better idea of the Scottish situation after the locals next month though - see if Labour go back in 2nd place in Scotland or not. 

Anas Sarwar  is a massive improvement on Richard Leonard in my opinion.