By -Election Bingo 2019-2024

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

26 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Just commenting on a report in today's press

 

 

Article here makes it clear the rules state that once the number is reached the vote must take place "as soon as practicable" - given the distrust in the Tories and their self-serving antics it'd be undermining the whole party if Brady knew he had 54 letters and left it until after two by-election defeats. Clearly, he's not under pressure to count them every half hour but even leaving it a few days looks bad. 

 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/31/as-more-mps-turn-against-boris-johnson-how-would-a-vote-of-no-confidence-work

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

4 hours ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Article here makes it clear the rules state that once the number is reached the vote must take place "as soon as practicable" - given the distrust in the Tories and their self-serving antics it'd be undermining the whole party if Brady knew he had 54 letters and left it until after two by-election defeats. Clearly, he's not under pressure to count them every half hour but even leaving it a few days looks bad.

 

Yeah, but knowing the Machiavellian tendencies of the Tory party when they smell blood, and putting my cynic's hat on, surely it would be possible for Sir Graham to quietly suggest that you really might not actually want to put your letter in just now, it might be better to wait a couple of weeks... (nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more)

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

On 05/06/2022 at 23:58, RoverAndOut said:

 

Yeah, but knowing the Machiavellian tendencies of the Tory party when they smell blood, and putting my cynic's hat on, surely it would be possible for Sir Graham to quietly suggest that you really might not actually want to put your letter in just now, it might be better to wait a couple of weeks... (nudge nudge, wink wink, say no more)

 

 

Aye but...the problem with the opposition to Boris is that it's random and for random reasons, red wallers shitting themselves over their next job, die-hards in safe seats shitting themselves over tactical voting and Lib Dem victories, disgruntled ex-ministers who used to have a career etc. Boris' style of "management" has always sparked random eruptions of dissent and made managing the results a challenge. 

 

All of which means I think the title of this thread, specifically the 2019-2024 bit, a hostage to fortune.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

2 hours ago, maryportfuncity said:

All of which means I think the title of this thread, specifically the 2019-2024 bit, a hostage to fortune.

 

Should an early election be called, by design or accident, before 2024, there will still not have been a parliament that has run to term since the coalition (2010-15). In the 7 or 8 years since, we would have had 3 general elections.

[Bibliogryphon 9,571]

16 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Should an early election be called, by design or accident, before 2024, there will still not have been a parliament that has run to term since the coalition (2010-15). In the 7 or 8 years since, we would have had 3 general elections.

 

I don't see the logic behind an early election at this stage unless the Conservative party are expecting things to get considerably worse and then it might be worth having someone else in charge

 

I still think the election will be in January 2025

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

I don't see the logic behind an early election at this stage unless the Conservative party are expecting things to get considerably worse and then it might be worth having someone else in charge

 

I still think the election will be in January 2025

 

So, pardon my ignorance...they were elected on 12 Dec 2019, so is five years the maximum term or the maximum time by which they have to have called an election (meaning they could call one in late 2024 for early 2025)?

 

[Bibliogryphon 9,571]

1 minute ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

So, pardon my ignorance...they were elected on 12 Dec 2019, so is five years the maximum term or the maximum time by which they have to have called an election (meaning they could call one in late 2024 for early 2025)?

 

 

Yes they have to have called it by the election date

 

I did see a discussion about this somewhere and the reckoned it could be as late as the last week in January 2025. Although they might opt for Summer 2024

[msc 18,439]

1 minute ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Yes they have to have called it by the election date

 

I did see a discussion about this somewhere and the reckoned it could be as late as the last week in January 2025. Although they might opt for Summer 2024

 

It was based on the idea the government would cling on to the bitter end, so December 2024 then a month for campaigning. An early January election sounds like a completely idiotic move, though.

 

Apparently folk have seen the government's election briefing stuff and its all marked 2024. Take that for what its worth.

[Bibliogryphon 9,571]

1 minute ago, msc said:

 

It was based on the idea the government would cling on to the bitter end, so December 2024 then a month for campaigning. An early January election sounds like a completely idiotic move, though.

 

Apparently folk have seen the government's election briefing stuff and its all marked 2024. Take that for what its worth.

 

John Major hung on until the last possible date

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

2 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

Yes they have to have called it by the election date

 

I did see a discussion about this somewhere and the reckoned it could be as late as the last week in January 2025. Although they might opt for Summer 2024

 

 

Or it may all go to shit for Bojo some other way, notably the bookies aren't lengthening the odds on him being out this year. The various means are discussed in the link including the Conservative Party changing the rules on votes of confidence to bring in another one (summat they considered when ousting Theresa May), or even Tory rebels getting onside with the rest of parliament to vote him out that way. Either way, as long as he stays we're nailed on for massive ructions in the party, long-term damage to its standing and a news agenda in which his competence is never far from the top headline.

 

Unless, of course, he actually is seen to do some decent leading of the country. 

 

 

https://www.gambling.com/news/how-long-will-boris-johnson-last-as-uk-prime-minister-2024000

[Great Uncle Bulgaria 1,282]

2 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

John Major hung on until the last possible date

Yes, but that was the right thing to do, he was dead man walking in the polls for the last 2-3 years of his premiership and with hindsight you can see why he held on in the hope of good news coming from somewhere. He was also facing a young and charismatic labour leader.

The tories despite everything still aren't buried. Starmer is seen as dull, uncharismatic and not obvious PM material. The next 12m is going to be bad economically but if inflation starts to slip back in a year's time I think they'll look to cut and run, maybe as early as autumn 2023.

The Ukraine war still has some spanners to throw into the works as well, economically and politically. The Russians are slowly but surely winning on the ground. The hawkish posturing has played well so far, but soon Boris or his successor is going to have to weigh up the options of getting more heavily involved or pressurising Zelensky into accepting a settlement in which Russia takes the Donbas and most of Ukraine'ss southern coast. Whichever option he chooses might not play well with the public (or, more politically importantly, Rupert Murdoch, who as ever will tell the public what to think).

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

Chris Mason commenting that getting hold of cabinet ministers this morning is something of a mission. Whether the Tiverton tanking prompts a repeat of the Thatcher-ousting tactic of the top table taking turns to state their lack of support remainst to be seen. On the voting on December 2019 there are only 40 Conservatite seats safer than Tiverton and Honiton. 

 

Oh aye, and that resignation of the party chairman conspicuously supports the party, but not Bojo. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61920000

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

6 hours ago, maryportfuncity said:

Chris Mason commenting that getting hold of cabinet ministers this morning is something of a mission. Whether the Tiverton tanking prompts a repeat of the Thatcher-ousting tactic of the top table taking turns to state their lack of support remainst to be seen. On the voting on December 2019 there are only 40 Conservatite seats safer than Tiverton and Honiton. 

 

Oh aye, and that resignation of the party chairman conspicuously supports the party, but not Bojo. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61920000

 

Anyone seen Nadine today..? 

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

3 hours ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Anyone seen Nadine today..? 

 

 

Yeah, she's prompted an unwanted onslaught of online ridicule by accidently citing WW11 in her social media this morning - well either that or we're the most pathetic dead poolers in history because we've missed eight world wars

 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

2 hours ago, maryportfuncity said:

 

 

Yeah, she's prompted an unwanted onslaught of online ridicule by accidently citing WW11 in her social media this morning - well either that or we're the most pathetic dead poolers in history because we've missed eight world wars

 

 

Give her a break you ignorant bastard, she's dyslexic, remember!

[Toast 16,132]

 

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

45 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Give her a break you ignorant bastard, she's dyslexic, remember!

 

 

So, she outed herself on a sizeable scale, blaming a poor performance in a video on the condition - though, oddly, there are loads of instances of dyslexics who speak to camera well (Richard Branson for one). 

 

Then again, as someone pointed out elsewhere today, it might explain why she can't spell Doris

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

1 hour ago, maryportfuncity said:

So, she outed herself on a sizeable scale, blaming a poor performance in a video on the condition - though, oddly, there are loads of instances of dyslexics who speak to camera well (Richard Branson for one). 

 

Then again, as someone pointed out elsewhere today, it might explain why she can't spell Doris

 

Yeah, but it's really difficult getting Is and 1s the right way round...

[Bibliogryphon 9,571]

Liberal Democrats seek a candidate for a potential By-election in Michael Gove's constituency

 

Do they know something?

 

[Commtech Sio Bibble 2,028]

15 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Liberal Democrats seek a candidate for a potential By-election in Michael Gove's constituency

 

Do they know something?

 

The first thing that comes to mind is that he might be given a lordship when Johnson finally leaves. But considering recent events that wouldn't make much sense. 

[Brad252 807]

Nadine Dorries reported to be off to the Lords, which would result in a by-election:

 

 

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

Things aren't going well for Andrew - Brexit - Bridgen, so badly in fact that if he has to find all the money he suddenly owes he could be forced to declare bankruptcy, thereby barring himself from being an MP. Majority of 20,400 with the Lib Dems a distant spec in third place. So, obviously, no chance of an upset to rival Tiverton and Honiton, right?

 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11178213/Tory-MP-Andrew-Bridgen-ordered-1-5million-five-bed-family-home-800-000-costs.html

[Bibliogryphon 9,571]

12 minutes ago, maryportfuncity said:

Things aren't going well for Andrew - Brexit - Bridgen, so badly in fact that if he has to find all the money he suddenly owes he could be forced to declare bankruptcy, thereby barring himself from being an MP. Majority of 20,400 with the Lib Dems a distant spec in third place. So, obviously, no chance of an upset to rival Tiverton and Honiton, right?

 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11178213/Tory-MP-Andrew-Bridgen-ordered-1-5million-five-bed-family-home-800-000-costs.html

 

This was a seat that was held by Labour in the Blair years so it is not unwinable especially considering the polls as they stand.

 

If Nadine Dorres is heading to the other place then Mid Beds would also be up for grabs but that is a much safer seat and has been held by the Tories since 1929

[maryportfuncity 10,645]

5 hours ago, Bibliogryphon said:

 

This was a seat that was held by Labour in the Blair years so it is not unwinable especially considering the polls as they stand.

 

If Nadine Dorres is heading to the other place then Mid Beds would also be up for grabs but that is a much safer seat and has been held by the Tories since 1929

 

 

So less time  than they'd held Tiverton and Honiton, then

 

Cynical promotions to the upper house have a knock on effect of reducing the vote for the incumbent party and empowering the chasing pack. The Liberals came really close (552 votes) to taking the rock solid Tory seat of Penrith and the Border in 1983 after Willie Whitelaw was shunted to the Lords weeks after Thatcher's second win, given how strongly he'd won (15,421 votes) a mere six weeks earlier it was summat (as they say in that area) of a wake up call all round.

[YoungWillz 21,033]

270 hours of Community Service for Margaret Ferrier.

 

Really close to being jailed.