Coronavirus death toll 2020

[Paul Bearer 6,102]

More bad news from China : _________________ 朣楢琴执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻獩汰祡戺潬正瀻獯瑩潩㩮敲慬楴敶执獧搴筮楤灳慬㩹湩楬敮戭潬正漻敶晲潬 朣楢琴执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻 Makes me want to cry! Especially the part where they say : 汦睯攺正瀻獯瑩

[theoldlady 2,300]

8 minutes ago, Paul Bearer said:

More bad news from China : _________________ 朣楢琴执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻獩汰祡戺潬正瀻獯瑩潩㩮敲慬楴敶执獧搴筮楤灳慬㩹湩楬敮戭潬正漻敶晲潬 朣楢琴执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻 Makes me want to cry! Especially the part where they say : 汦睯攺正瀻獯瑩

I knew the Chinese custom of eating pickled Donkey-Dicks would lead to no good. Please don`t cry, the ban on that practice is long overdue.

[TQR 14,391]

1 hour ago, Paul Bearer said:

More bad news from China : _________________ 朣楢琴执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻獩汰祡戺潬正瀻獯瑩潩㩮敲慬楴敶执獧搴筮楤灳慬㩹湩楬敮戭潬正漻敶晲潬 朣楢琴执㝧执瑩浻牡楧㩮㔱硰执㝧执獧浻牡楧敬瑦瀰絸朣杢㑳执獧扻捡杫潲湵潣潬㩲昣昸昸㬸慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧敷止瑩札慲楤湥楬敮牡氬晥⁴潴敬瑦戠瑯潴牦浯㡦㡦㡦潴捥捥捥戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥眭扥楫楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩条㩥洭穯氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧獭氭湩慥牧摡敩瑮琨灯㡦㡦㡦捥捥捥㬩慢正牧畯摮椭慭敧楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散戻捡杫潲湵浩u条㩥楬敮牡札慲楤湥潴昣昸昸攣散散汩整㩲牰杯摩䐺䥘慭敧牔湡晳牯楍牣獯景牧摡敩瑮猨慴瑲潃潬卲牴昣昸昸䔬摮潃潬卲牴攣散散㬩潢摲牥硰猠汯摩⌠㙣㙣㙣搻獩汰祡戺潬正潭潢摲牥爭摡畩㩳瀲㭸漭戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰敷止瑩戭牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰戻牯敤慲楤獵㈺硰执獧搴摻 Makes me want to cry! Especially the part where they say : 汦睯攺正瀻獯瑩

 

Much clearer, thank the lord for Google:

 

 

Just as we all feared, the scattered pick up ellipses are all over the place in Yingzha, says local correspondent Sheng Zhengmu.

[paddyfool 379]

24,516 confirmed cases worldwide, 493 confirmed deaths.

 

Further breakdown at this handy link (I'm getting lazy now):

 

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[msc 18,443]

The BBC are getting into the mood.

 

They're repeating The Flu That Killed 50 Million next week on BBC2! 

[paddyfool 379]

28,274 confirmed cases, 565 deaths. 

 

At least two punters went too low, it seems.  Right now, I'd bet the 500-999 crowd did as well.

[msc 18,443]

It has surpassed mad cow disease but has a bit to go before SARS yet.

 

Grimmest league table ever.

[paddyfool 379]

I have little doubt that this will surpass SARS as well. Still, the world will go on turning... especially considering the characteristics of most deaths from this: 

 

"From the analysis of death cases, it emerges that it is mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor." https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

 

The mortality rate among cases in Wuhan seems to be significantly higher than that elsewhere, incidentally, at about 4.9%. Probably because local resources have been overwhelmed there; even with recent rapid hospital construction, there will still be significant issues with staffing etc, especially with healthcare staff among the most exposed to getting sick. 

 

[ladyfiona 2,585]

A 30 hour old baby has been diagnosed with it.

 

Also found this little neat map/statistics on same page:

 

 

[paddyfool 379]

Dr Li Wenliang, a whistleblower who helped to initially raise the alarm about this outbreak back in December, has died from his own coronavirus infection at the young age of 34.

 

And since quite a lot of people in this forum are Brits, it's worth noting the UK has now confirmed its third case, in Brighton, contracted not in China but "in another Asian country". (Which I'd guess would probably be either Thailand, Singapore or Japan, looking at the numbers)

 

EDIT: It does indeed seem he picked it up in Singapore.

[Paul Bearer 6,102]

[ThePrematureBurial 224]

6 hours ago, paddyfool said:

Dr Li Wenliang, a whistleblower who helped to initially raise the alarm about this outbreak back in December, has died from his own coronavirus infection at the young age of 34.

 

And since quite a lot of people in this forum are Brits, it's worth noting the UK has now confirmed its third case, in Brighton, contracted not in China but "in another Asian country". (Which I'd guess would probably be either Thailand, Singapore or Japan, looking at the numbers)

 

EDIT: It does indeed seem he picked it up in Singapore.

His pregnant wife, his child & his parents are also infected, according to some Tweets. (Not a reliable source, I know). 

 

People like him deserve a "hero" thread.

[paddyfool 379]

8 hours ago, ThePrematureBurial said:

People like him deserve a "hero" thread.

 

Indeed. People like him and Carlo Urbani.

 

Incidentally, there are now 31,493 confirmed cases, of which 4,824 are in critical condition. And there are 638 confirmed deaths.

[Grim Up North 3,725]

54 minutes ago, paddyfool said:

Incidentally, there are now 31,493 confirmed cases, of which 4,824 are in critical condition. And there are 638 confirmed deaths.

 

I would suggest from the statistics that the actual death rate is much higher than the 2% it calculates at as a raw % of deaths/confirmed cases.

 

Because many of the confirmed cases will just have been diagnosed, many in the critical condition numbers, but will not have time to die yet. So the Confirmed Cases data is days ahead of the corresponding Deaths from the Confirmed Cases data.

 

The SARS data from wiki below is a complete data set once all Confirmed Cases had concluded in either death or survival.

 

'Between November 2002 and July 2003, an outbreak of SARS in southern China caused an eventual 8,098 cases, resulting in 774 deaths reported in 17 countries (9.6% fatality rate)'

 

If it takes 8 days to either die or survive (see Li Wenliang info below) the number of confirmed cases 8 days ago was 9,091 which makes the death rate more like 7%.

In other words of the 22,402 cases confirmed over last 8 days there are still 1,568 people to die for the data to catch up.

 

However from other information available it may be worse than that. From the BBC article on Wenliang death,

 

'In his Weibo post he describes how on 10 January he started coughing, the next day he had a fever and two days later he was in hospital. He was diagnosed with the coronavirus on 30 January.'

 

So I took the 8 days from diagnosis to death. But it sounds like he actually had it from 10th January and they are probably diagnosing faster now so if it actually takes 28 days from diagnosis to death then this is way, way more deadly then we are being led to believe at the moment.

 

28 days ago on the 10th January there weren't even any stats so if it takes 28 days to die from it pretty much everyone diagnosed is dying.  

 

[paddyfool 379]

Worth noting for those calculations that the confirmed recovered figure is 1,563. With the other 28,000 or so who've neither died nor been confirmed as recovered being presumably either still sick, convalescent or undocumented.

[Grim Up North 3,725]

5 minutes ago, paddyfool said:

Worth noting for those calculations that the confirmed recovered figure is 1,563. With the other 28,000 or so who've neither died nor been confirmed as recovered being presumably either still sick, convalescent or undocumented.

So dead 638

Recovered 1563

Total confirmed cases concluded 2201

 

Fatality rate 29%

And that’s why China is in lockdown.

 

Also the media talk about the people who are dying being the old, young or sick but Li Wenbiang was 30 and healthy prior to contracting virus.

[paddyfool 379]

29% is probably as much of an overestimate as 2% is an underestimate, however, since there'll likely need to be a window of being asymptomatic for a few days before they rule someone as being "recovered". 

 

Also, there may be another category of people we aren't considering here - people with lasting lung damage or other long term complications who never fully recover, but aren't about to drop dead either. Although apparently only a small percentage of SARS patients experienced long term complications, luckily  https://foundation.chestnet.org/patient-education-resources/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-sars/.

[msc 18,443]

1 hour ago, Grim Up North said:

Also the media talk about the people who are dying being the old, young or sick but Li Wenbiang was 30 and healthy prior to contracting virus.

 

As they wont (wouldn't?) confirm his medical history, I suspect he had something normally controllable like asthma?

 

Hmm, how do you feel writing another 200 front page obits if this thing hits Glasgow then?

[Grim Up North 3,725]

28 minutes ago, msc said:

 

As they wont (wouldn't?) confirm his medical history, I suspect he had something normally controllable like asthma?

 

Hmm, how do you feel writing another 200 front page obits if this thing hits Glasgow then?

Actually if corona virus goes big you wouldn’t want to be sitting with any fringe QO picks as filling newspaper pages will not be difficult.

 

Although that will be least of our worries.

[msc 18,443]

6 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

Actually if corona virus goes big you wouldn’t want to be sitting with any fringe QO picks as filling newspaper pages will not be difficult.

 

Although that will be least of our worries.

 

Corrupt a Wish - win the DDP but die of coronavirus.

 

Although...apparently there was a superflu pandemic in 2009 that killed about 203 thousand people worldwide? I have no memory of that whatsoever.

 

I mean I have no memory of Russian Flu killing 1 million in 1889 either, but none of us (apart from LFN) were alive for that one.

[Great Uncle Bulgaria 1,282]

45 minutes ago, msc said:

Although...apparently there was a superflu pandemic in 2009 that killed about 203 thousand people worldwide? I have no memory of that whatsoever.

 me neither

 

46 minutes ago, msc said:

I mean I have no memory of Russian Flu killing 1 million in 1889 either, but none of us (apart from LFN) were alive for that one.

Births were not certified very systematically in the 18th century and my long term memory is a little foggy these days but more than one reputable source has put my age in excess of 300. In any event, the burrow musician and  historian (M Batt Esq) has confirmed I was but a lad in 1780 (see  his 1974 Opus 'Minuetto Allegretto')

[paddyfool 379]

34,888 confirmed cases worldwide (total increase 3,395, relative 10%)

724 deaths (total increase 86, relative 13%)

2,127 confirmed recovered (total increase 564, relative 36%)

 

The majority of confirmed cases (72%) and the vast majority of deaths (97%) have been in Hubei province. 

[msc 18,443]

SARS was 774 for those keeping score at home.

Then it's a big jump to 2035 confirmed deaths from swine flu.

[viGnoS 18]

I predict 34141 deaths as of april 30th (following the current logarithmic trend)

and ~5000 by the end of february

[paddyfool 379]

I predict that we won't see a steady trend. Recently, the spread within China has been slowed by extensive quarantine measures... but factories, schools and assorted other currently closed facilities can't stay closed forever.  Then there's the question of how long it will take until a new outbreak gets going in a big city somewhere else where they lack the same resources as China. Then there's the question of how much spring conditions will affect the spread when they come in, or how much tropical / summer conditions may affect current spread in other latitudes. And the question of whether all this surveillance will drive the evolution of a milder, less symptomatic strain that can slip through the net more easily but that also should also kill fewer people. 

 

A lot of unknowns, in short. Many of which can lead to significant changes in the rate of transmission and the rate of death, one way or the other.