RoverAndOut 4,755 Posted November 7, 2020 1 hour ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said: I suspect that, If he did actually put money on Trump, he would have been a bit sly and put money on Biden too. Farage is many things but he isn't £10K poorer today!! Is this not the power of Farage though? A jumped-up little wannabe politician who feels important because he's friends with the US President and who we all take seriously because he claims to speak for the people. We assume he's too crafty or sly not to lose 10K on this when in reality, he was probably convinced Trump would win and is arguing with the bookies on the phone at this moment. In the grander scheme of things, though, he hasn't really lost 10K: Trump rewards fealty above any other quality: he'll get a prime-time spot on Trump TV and a seven-figure salary once Reform UK fails to take off in the way Brexit did. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Charlotte's Controller 195 Posted November 7, 2020 So if Trump is barricading himself in the White House, does it now become the madhouse? I believe several UK politicians would be glad to go and visit. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Joey Russ 7,263 Posted November 7, 2020 One sad thing about the result is that many of the most significant bellwether streaks have ended. Along with the state Ohio, the two longest counties who predicted the winner since 1952 and 1956 respectively (Valencia County New Mexico and Vigo County Indiana) have ended their streaks. The county next in line for bellwether status (Westmoreland County Virginia) also ended its streak. The new county with the longest streak now is Clallam County Washington, which last got it wrong in 1976. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,226 Posted November 7, 2020 23 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said: Is this not the power of Farage though? A jumped-up little wannabe politician who feels important because he's friends with the US President and who we all take seriously because he claims to speak for the people. We assume he's too crafty or sly not to lose 10K on this when in reality, he was probably convinced Trump would win and is arguing with the bookies on the phone at this moment. In the grander scheme of things, though, he hasn't really lost 10K: Trump rewards fealty above any other quality: he'll get a prime-time spot on Trump TV and a seven-figure salary once Reform UK fails to take off in the way Brexit did. The only reason he is 'friends' with Trump is that Trump saw a little jumped up Politician take on 'the establishment' and, almost single handedly, lever the UK out of the EU. It really doesn't matter about the rights and the wrongs, Trump saw how one man created a movement that main stream Politics could not stop. Farage was Trumps hero, he saw a 'man of the people' moment and a way to communicate with the people who did not feel that they had been listened to. As it is, the result is a Biden win by a razor thin majority and certainly not the majority that the polls were predicting. This is, yet again, pollsters not asking the right questions and people too uncomfortable to admit that they would prefer a right wing President over one that may lean a little bit further to the left than was comfortable for them. Trump is a cunt, no question whatsoever and Farage has gone so far over to the right now, much much further than he was, he has become a virtual extremist, however, their past polling has shown that, yes, maybe they do speak for the people, a shit load of people. Until a leader, less extreme, grasps that salient fact, understands it and tries to fathom out how they can get those people on board then we are going to have pendulum politics of wild swings to the left and the right. Biden will prove to be equally as shite as Trump in his own way. He was just considered a bit less shite a candidate than Trump. As for Reform UK, don't bet on it failing to take off. Farage doesn't expect to be Prime Minister, the job of his new party is to gain support to add pressure to the government to ensure that it follows a particular path. It's not like he has failed to do so before, is it! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,536 Posted November 7, 2020 55 minutes ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said: As it is, the result is a Biden win by a razor thin majority and certainly not the majority that the polls were predicting. Just to comment on these two bits because you know my views on Farage already (I'm fairly consistent on not liking patronising well off hypocrites who pretends to care about the working class no matter what party they call their own). It looks like Biden will win the popular vote by about 7 million+ once California and other Dem states bother to count up their remaining votes, and if Arizona and Georgia go that way too as *currently* seems likely then he'll be equaling Trump's EC win from 2016 (which Trump called "a massive landslide" naturally!). The polls were wrong but then look at the exit polls - people thought they were better off than in 2017, the biggest issue for them was the economy and crucially, circa 49% of the population AGREED with Donald Trump's covid measures or lack of them. Add on the various reasons the hispanic vote jumped Trump's way in the south, and this was not a freebie election like everyone assumed, and I think most of the "better candidates" everyone wanted - me included - would have got gubbed. Joe Biden won because he campaigned in the right places, with the right messages (job protectionism in the rust belt, mostly) and ignored folk on his own campaign who wanted to focus on Florida more or expand their map to include Kansas or what not. Instead of Hilary, he focused singulary on the places he needed the votes. And so he won. PS North Carolina wont be called for a week yet, but if Biden wins Georgia, then he focused campaign in 9 states in the last 2 months, and looks like he'll have won at least 8 of them. Not too shabby. Almost Trump 2016 like, in fact... 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,226 Posted November 7, 2020 9 minutes ago, msc said: Just to comment on these two bits because you know my views on Farage already (I'm fairly consistent on not liking patronising well off hypocrites who pretends to care about the working class no matter what party they call their own). It looks like Biden will win the popular vote by about 7 million+ once California and other Dem states bother to count up their remaining votes, and if Arizona and Georgia go that way too as *currently* seems likely then he'll be equaling Trump's EC win from 2016 (which Trump called "a massive landslide" naturally!). The polls were wrong but then look at the exit polls - people thought they were better off than in 2017, the biggest issue for them was the economy and crucially, circa 49% of the population AGREED with Donald Trump's covid measures or lack of them. Add on the various reasons the hispanic vote jumped Trump's way in the south, and this was not a freebie election like everyone assumed, and I think most of the "better candidates" everyone wanted - me included - would have got gubbed. Joe Biden won because he campaigned in the right places, with the right messages (job protectionism in the rust belt, mostly) and ignored folk on his own campaign who wanted to focus on Florida more or expand their map to include Kansas or what not. Instead of Hilary, he focused singulary on the places he needed the votes. And so he won. PS North Carolina wont be called for a week yet, but if Biden wins Georgia, then he focused campaign in 9 states in the last 2 months, and looks like he'll have won at least 8 of them. Not too shabby. Almost Trump 2016 like, in fact... I hear ya. IIRC, didn't Hilary actually poll more votes than Trump in the last election? I will never truly understand how it all works! The vote has been considerably closer than the polls suggested it would be, Biden hasn't sprinted over the line, more like hobbled really. Watching this all play out is going to be entertaining, at the very least. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TQR 14,457 Posted November 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said: IIRC, didn't Hilary actually poll more votes than Trump in the last election? You’re right yeah, by about 3 million! This is why the electoral college system is completely and utterly fucked. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,536 Posted November 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, Lord Fellatio Nelson said: I hear ya. IIRC, didn't Hilary actually poll more votes than Trump in the last election? I will never truly understand how it all works! The vote has been considerably closer than the polls suggested it would be, Biden hasn't sprinted over the line, more like hobbled really. Watching this all play out is going to be entertaining, at the very least. Like the UK, US elections not decided on "popular vote" but a form of First Past the Post. Unlike here, where it's 650 constituencies so the party in the lead with votes tends to be the party in power, the US has a steroid version of it, where the winner takes all of a state's 10-40 odd votes even if they lost 9 out of 10 counties in the state but won the single one that had a big city. So you can get huge vote numbers/winners things going wrong. Last time that happened in the UK - the party who won the most votes lost the election - was 1951 which was an infamously close election decided by a few thousand voters in swing seats. Whereas it happened twice in the last 20 years in the US! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 16,232 Posted November 7, 2020 Anyway now we can look forward to Nellie packing his trunk .... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fergie86 377 Posted November 7, 2020 5 minutes ago, The Quim Reaper said: You’re right yeah, by about 3 million! This is why the electoral college system is completely and utterly fucked. Agreed just go on who has the most votes someone like Trump would still moan if he lost and go on about fraud but it would stop the farce that has gone on this week, don’t know if there has been fraud or not, probably not to the extent that Trump is claiming but some states seem to be counting very slowly knowing how many electoral votes there states have and who needs them to get in office and enjoying their day in the sun and taking longer than necessary scrap it and you won’t have that. Also making out some states are more important than others creates a divide straight away if you just have it on who has most votes wins takes that away . Takes way too long to decide who gets in I know it is harder and will take longer in USA than UK due to size and population difference but in UK we know by next morning who are is in or out not 5 days later. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CoffinLodger 1,248 Posted November 7, 2020 8 hours ago, Fergie86 said: There is a programme on Amazon Prime about Trump and his business dealings in the 80’s and early 90’s called Trump: What’s the deal? It is amazing what he got up to and got away with and how much of a dodgy business man he really is. There will be a lot of investigating going on now about his corrupt dealings.I wonder if he'll resign before Jan 20 so Mike Pence can take over and pardon him, which apparantely Presidents can do even before any charges are laid. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Charlotte's Controller 195 Posted November 7, 2020 'We used to have rotten boroughs they have employed a similar policy, the Americans have not twigged yet. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,755 Posted November 7, 2020 @Lord Fellatio Nelson (to save me quoting that massive post) @msc put it far better than I could as to why I'd disagree with a pretty big chunk of what you said. Regarding Biden hobbling across the line, that's just perception due to the way states have counted mail-in ballots. In an ordinary election, Biden would have been declared winner on the night having won Pennsylvania. They'd probably be waiting on Nevada, Arizona and Georgia because they're very close, but the narrative would have been the Democrats flipping back Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while also potentially flipping Georgia and Arizona, which haven't voted Democrat since the 90s and even then didn't get close to 50% due to third party candidates (Ross Perot). He hasn't blown Trump away, but I don't even think that's possible anymore with the polarisation of politics. Biden is currently sitting on 50.6% of the popular vote, which will probably go up when all ballots are counted. Reagan got 50.7% in 1980 and earned 489 out of 538 votes in the Electoral College. Those days are long past. A third of the country votes Democrat, a third of the country votes Republican and it all comes down to a handful of states: win them all and you end up close to 400, only win a few and you may scrape 280. The polls have consistently said Biden would win and he has, it sounded like a certainty because there were lots of possible paths. In the end, all the narrow wins aside, he's done exactly what he said he would do: win back the Rust Belt. Those three states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were all he needed to turn a 306-232 defeat into a 273-265 victory (and it will be considerably higher than that in the end). 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Lord Fellatio Nelson 6,226 Posted November 8, 2020 14 hours ago, RoverAndOut said: @Lord Fellatio Nelson (to save me quoting that massive post) @msc put it far better than I could as to why I'd disagree with a pretty big chunk of what you said. Regarding Biden hobbling across the line, that's just perception due to the way states have counted mail-in ballots. In an ordinary election, Biden would have been declared winner on the night having won Pennsylvania. They'd probably be waiting on Nevada, Arizona and Georgia because they're very close, but the narrative would have been the Democrats flipping back Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while also potentially flipping Georgia and Arizona, which haven't voted Democrat since the 90s and even then didn't get close to 50% due to third party candidates (Ross Perot). He hasn't blown Trump away, but I don't even think that's possible anymore with the polarisation of politics. Biden is currently sitting on 50.6% of the popular vote, which will probably go up when all ballots are counted. Reagan got 50.7% in 1980 and earned 489 out of 538 votes in the Electoral College. Those days are long past. A third of the country votes Democrat, a third of the country votes Republican and it all comes down to a handful of states: win them all and you end up close to 400, only win a few and you may scrape 280. The polls have consistently said Biden would win and he has, it sounded like a certainty because there were lots of possible paths. In the end, all the narrow wins aside, he's done exactly what he said he would do: win back the Rust Belt. Those three states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were all he needed to turn a 306-232 defeat into a 273-265 victory (and it will be considerably higher than that in the end). Hmmmm, ok then. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RIP Wee Jum 1,559 Posted November 8, 2020 16 hours ago, RoverAndOut said: He hasn't blown Trump away, https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/biden-breaks-obama-votes-record-434057 Biden breaks Obama record for most votes. If you look at number of votes he has blown Trump away. He encouraged more people to vote to get the "tanned tosser" out Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,755 Posted November 8, 2020 59 minutes ago, Wee Jum said: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/04/biden-breaks-obama-votes-record-434057 Biden breaks Obama record for most votes. If you look at number of votes he has blown Trump away. He encouraged more people to vote to get the "tanned tosser" out Apologies, I was referring more to the electoral college, where he is likely to get just over 300 (Obama got 360-odd) and the margin in the key states (like Trump in 2016 only beat Hillary by around 17,000 votes across 3 or 4 key states - although on reflection, to get to 270 he only needs Pennsylvania which he may win fairly comfortably: Nevada, Arizona and Georgia are just racking up the score). The 'record votes' argument is a dubious one IMO. Turnout was historically high (highest since 1900) which of course is good (although still only looking at 62% - really? 38% of Americans couldn't be bothered to get involved one way or the other?) but by suggesting Biden got most votes ever (an undeniable fact), you could equally say Trump got more votes than Obama - he currently stands at 70.8 million compared to Obama's 69.4. This is 5 million more than Hillary's popular vote count from 2016 and nearly 8 million more than he got himself in 2016. In other words, (at least) 8 million people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 voted for him in 2020. And I'm not sure that stat sits too well with me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
En Passant 3,755 Posted November 8, 2020 18 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said: he currently stands at 70.8 million 18 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said: (at least) 8 million people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 voted for him in 2020. And I'm not sure that stat sits too well with me. I'm absolutely certain it doesn't sit well with me. 70 million people still voted for him after 4 years of lying, bullying, bloviating, sexist, racist, climate denying, covid denying, narcissistic bullshit. Some of them proudly. I can only ascribe it to the 1/3 that always vote Republican, plus....well, plus what? That's the bit that bothers me most if I'm honest. 3 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,755 Posted November 8, 2020 17 minutes ago, En Passant said: I'm absolutely certain it doesn't sit well with me. 70 million people still voted for him after 4 years of lying, bullying, bloviating, sexist, racist, climate denying, covid denying, narcissistic bullshit. Some of them proudly. I can only ascribe it to the 1/3 that always vote Republican, plus....well, plus what? That's the bit that bothers me most if I'm honest. Agreed. Well, the full breakdown will come once all the results are in, but the evidence was that suburban white women had turned against him, that's why I said "at least 8 million" because it's clearly far higher than that. There's evidence that a section of black and Hispanic voters (men in particular) admired Trump's macho image and character plus plenty of evidence that Hispanics in particular (most notably those in Florida) were open to a more conservative President due to their experiences of socialism in Central America and (for Floridians) Cuba. Wrongly characterising Biden as a raving socialist worked for Trump in holding onto Florida and probably gained him a few votes elsewhere too. There were around 129 million votes cast in 2016 and over 146 million so far in 2020 (likely to go above 150 in the end) - that's 17-21 million extra votes this time around and while some of those are Democrats who failed to back Hillary turning out to get rid of Trump, a decent number will be among the lunatic fringes who voted for Trump this time for the first time. The fact that so many Republicans blindly voted for him is hugely concerning, but there is a decent amount of evidence of Trump running a couple of points behind the Senate races in some of these states, even in reliably red states, so there were at least some who switched their votes (as anecdotal evidence has suggested). The Republicans gained seats in the House and held on in the Senate whilst losing the Presidency, On the flip side to that, however, I saw on 538.com in the past couple of days that a recent poll they conducted in Pennsylvania over whether voters would like the next Republican candidate in 2024 to be "more like a conventional politician" or "more like Trump" came down 81% in favour of someone like Trump. There is a lot of belief he will run again in 2024, citing the evidence of getting more votes this time around and the unfinished business of losing to Biden. That in itself is a terrifying thought, but there's no getting away from the fact that the Republicans are still the party of Trump, and the orange monster is still going to be spewing bile to hundreds of thousands on Twitter for the next 4 years, whether he runs or not. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 16,232 Posted November 8, 2020 18 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said: There is a lot of belief he will run again in 2024, citing the evidence of getting more votes this time around and the unfinished business of losing to Biden. That in itself is a terrifying thought, but there's no getting away from the fact that the Republicans are still the party of Trump, and the orange monster is still going to be spewing bile to hundreds of thousands on Twitter for the next 4 years, whether he runs or not. Hopefully he can be stopped. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RoverAndOut 4,755 Posted November 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Toast said: Hopefully he can be stopped. Only using illegal votes though, remember? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Toast 16,232 Posted November 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said: Only using illegal votes though, remember? Hoping it won't get that far. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
msc 18,536 Posted November 8, 2020 Just now, Toast said: Hoping it won't get that far. Dont worry, he'll be dead by then... 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
