Thoughts on 2023 Deathlist

[Bibliogryphon 9,491]

Just done a fame barometer assessment of the candidates

 

I have divided them into four levels

 

Worldwide - Those who would probably be a lead news story across the globe

US Famous - Names that have limited exposure outside of the US and most non-US people here would only recognise from Deadpooling activities

UK Famous - Probably household names in the UK but not globally (popular amongst posters here)

Niche names - Those only really included because they are going to die. They may be very successful and significant in their fields but not universally recognised

 

There are some names that I debated about which category they should go in for example Bob Newhart has (relunctantly) gone into US Famous because a few late night C4 showings of his sitcom and a minor recurring role in BBT doesn't make him William Shatner

 

So the distribution is as follows

 

World: 23

US: 6

UK: 16

Niche: 5

 

You might carve the cake a different way

 

The two existing hits are both from the World group

[Lafaucheuse 3,996]

1 hour ago, Steve said:

I genuinely believe we will have lift off soon with the pending deaths of Joanne Woodward, Jimmy Carter, Rolf Harris, Linda Nolan, Milan Kundera, Joss Ackland and Sonny Rollins.

I can see Woodward, Kundera and Ackland go soon. Nolan has some more time I think, she didn’t look that bad on recent photos and the brain tumor might take a little while to finish her off. Carter won’t pass the year for sure but he already lingered for a month and a half and according to Biden he is well treated so I can see him last until the end of April or even may. I tend to think that Harris health was a little exagerated and even if I can see him being a hit, I think it won’t be that soon. Rollins I have no idea. Wouldn’t be surprised if we have a surprise hit like Ethel Kennedy soon also.

[Lafaucheuse 3,996]

1 hour ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Just done a fame barometer assessment of the candidates

 

I have divided them into four levels

 

Worldwide - Those who would probably be a lead news story across the globe

US Famous - Names that have limited exposure outside of the US and most non-US people here would only recognise from Deadpooling activities

UK Famous - Probably household names in the UK but not globally (popular amongst posters here)

Niche names - Those only really included because they are going to die. They may be very successful and significant in their fields but not universally recognised

 

There are some names that I debated about which category they should go in for example Bob Newhart has (relunctantly) gone into US Famous because a few late night C4 showings of his sitcom and a minor recurring role in BBT doesn't make him William Shatner

 

So the distribution is as follows

 

World: 23

US: 6

UK: 16

Niche: 5

 

You might carve the cake a different way

 

The two existing hits are both from the World group

Interesting ! Can you share the name in each categorie ? I’d be curious to see under which category Delors falls. Surely famous enough in EU but don’t think a lot of american know Who he is

[Toast 16,026]

17 minutes ago, Lafaucheuse said:

I’d be curious to see under which category Delors falls.

 

I think most people in the UK remember him because of the headline in the Sun "Up Yours, Delors"

[Bibliogryphon 9,491]

33 minutes ago, Lafaucheuse said:

Interesting ! Can you share the name in each categorie ? I’d be curious to see under which category Delors falls. Surely famous enough in EU but don’t think a lot of american know Who he is

 

Delors is in the World category I think most leaders of countries and institutions should be considered such. Possibly not every micronation but the EU is very important.

 

I was originally going to rank all the names on a fame scale from 1 to 50 which I might do later if we don't get an interesting hit

[Steve 575]

4 hours ago, Steve said:

I genuinely believe we will have lift off soon with the pending deaths of Joanne Woodward, Jimmy Carter, Rolf Harris, Linda Nolan, Milan Kundera, Joss Ackland and Sonny Rollins.

I didn't mean in a single day Biblio but I agree if they were all to go it would one hell of a busy day. Others I can see going include Jacques Delors, Sandy Gall, Harry Belafonte, Stanley Baxter and Bob Barker. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,491]

Looking at the distribution by (very broad) profession we have

 

Politics  13

Music     13

Actors     12

Sport          2

Others     10

 

I was surprised by there being only 2 sportspeople on there but I suppose sports careers are for the young and unless they develop an specific illness by the time they are considered for the list they have gone. Obviously losing Pele last year was significant. I only have 3 sportspersons on my shadow list

[Lafaucheuse 3,996]

28 minutes ago, Bibliogryphon said:

Looking at the distribution by (very broad) profession we have

 

Politics  13

Music     13

Actors     12

Sport          2

Others     10

 

I was surprised by there being only 2 sportspeople on there but I suppose sports careers are for the young and unless they develop an specific illness by the time they are considered for the list they have gone. Obviously losing Pele last year was significant. I only have 3 sportspersons on my shadow list

who is the second one besides Charlton ??

[max_bossetti 149]

6 minutes ago, Lafaucheuse said:

who is the second one besides Charlton ??

I think starmer-smith

[Lafaucheuse 3,996]

8 minutes ago, max_bossetti said:

I think starmer-smith

I always thought he was simply a commentator, you're right he is also a former rugbyman, thanks !

[Bibliogryphon 9,491]

1 hour ago, Lafaucheuse said:

I always thought he was simply a commentator, you're right he is also a former rugbyman, thanks !

 

The categories were very broad so even if he had not had the playing career  I would have put him in sport because that is where he is known from

[Lafaucheuse 3,996]

4 spots between each hits. To continue the trend we need Cleo Laine or Sonny Rollins dead. Interestingly enough, the only two jazz icon on the list. 

[Bibliogryphon 9,491]

 

 

This date for a third hit fits within the range for a middling year.

 

Mean date for the fourth hit based on the above data is 14th April

[Bibliogryphon 9,491]

 

Mean date for the fifth hit is 22nd May but if you eliminate the years where the fifth hit has already happened it goes out to the 21st June

 

I may need to update my data to include all years we have data for

 

[Steve 575]

On 01/01/2023 at 00:05, Grimgrass said:

The drops:

1. David Attenborough
2. Emperor Akihito
3. Ted Kaczynski
4. James Whale
5. Denis Law
6. Noam Chomsky
7. David Crosby
8. Michael Gambon
9. Douglas Hurd
10. Silvio Berlusconi
11. Linda Ronstadt

With David Crosby already gone and the pending death of Silvio Berlusconi I can see another 3 of last year's drops dying this year including James Whale, Douglas Hurd and Linda Ronstadt. 

[Lafaucheuse 3,996]

not Linda Ronstadt. And if ever this happens, I'd still understand the drop. 

[msc 18,375]

Hurd, Whale and Attenborough are the only three would feel like bad drops if they go. Frail and famous, terminally ill and famous, and very old and A list, respectively.

 

Crosby many of us said should be dropped. Berlusconi was another common "get rid" pick.

[Lafaucheuse 3,996]

21 minutes ago, msc said:

Hurd, Whale and Attenborough are the only three would feel like bad drops if they go. Frail and famous, terminally ill and famous, and very old and A list, respectively.

 

Crosby many of us said should be dropped. Berlusconi was another common "get rid" pick.

I disagree, this is not "if they die" that they should be considered bad drops. This is where all the confusion about "misses" comes from. Pope Benedict was a bad drop from the very beginning of the year, even if he had survived, he would have been one. Stephen Hawking was a bad drop in 2017. He ends up dying in early 2018 which turns out to be a good choice but it was a bad drop either way. This is why I personally think we can only call them "bad drop" or "good drop" in the very beginning of the year. Berlusconi was a good drop. But it turned out it was a bad choice. 

Whale is a real bad drop for example. No matter if he reaches 2024. Too risky.

[msc 18,375]

5 minutes ago, Lafaucheuse said:

I disagree, this is not "if they die" that they should be considered bad drops. This is where all the confusion about "misses" comes from. Pope Benedict was a bad drop from the very beginning of the year, even if he had survived, he would have been one. Stephen Hawking was a bad drop in 2017. He ends up dying in early 2018 which turns out to be a good choice but it was a bad drop either way. This is why I personally think we can only call them "bad drop" or "good drop" in the very beginning of the year. Berlusconi was a good drop. But it turned out it was a bad choice. 

Whale is a real bad drop for example. No matter if he reaches 2024. Too risky.

 

Just to point out, you're actually agreeing with my reasoning here. The difference between hindsight and foresight!

[Lafaucheuse 3,996]

1 minute ago, msc said:

 

Just to point out, you're actually agreeing with my reasoning here. The difference between hindsight and foresight!

I do think we agree yes but the "bad drop IF they die" is just weird. They're bad drop or they're not, no matter if they die or not in the year. Every person dying after having been on the list and having been dropped is a "bad drop" if we follow your reasoning.

[msc 18,375]

Le Pen in hospital. Woodward at the very least nearly a decade with end-stage dementia (and possibly worse). Jimmy C in palliative care. Charlton too ill to do family funerals. Starmer-Smith practically on his deathbed. Delors meant to be quite ill. Ackland said elsewhere to be in frail health on this forum. Kundera with heart issues. Faithful with COPD/in a care home. Rolf (allegedly) in deathbed. Willie Nelson frail after being gravely ill last year. Linda Nolan cancer spread badly. Dennis Skinner MIA and "not doing great" years ago. Al-Fayed allegedly dying in court documents. Sonny Rollins just about hanging to life somehow.

 

You know, for a list which looked mediocre, I can't recall a time we've got to the end of the first quarter and we've had quite so many obviously frail good picks on the list suddenly. 

[Gooseberry Crumble 5,318]

32 minutes ago, msc said:

Le Pen in hospital. Woodward at the very least nearly a decade with end-stage dementia (and possibly worse). Jimmy C in palliative care. Charlton too ill to do family funerals. Starmer-Smith practically on his deathbed. Delors meant to be quite ill. Ackland said elsewhere to be in frail health on this forum. Kundera with heart issues. Faithful with COPD/in a care home. Rolf (allegedly) in deathbed. Willie Nelson frail after being gravely ill last year. Linda Nolan cancer spread badly. Dennis Skinner MIA and "not doing great" years ago. Al-Fayed allegedly dying in court documents. Sonny Rollins just about hanging to life somehow.

 

You know, for a list which looked mediocre, I can't recall a time we've got to the end of the first quarter and we've had quite so many obviously frail good picks on the list suddenly. 

Good post. I hadn't realised there had been recent news of Nigel Starmer Smiths  health  deteriorating furthur. Looks like its going to be a busy summer.

[msc 18,375]

17 minutes ago, Gooseberry Crumble said:

Good post. I hadn't realised there had been recent news of Nigel Starmer Smiths  health  deteriorating furthur. Looks like its going to be a busy summer.

Nah same perilous condition from months ago. Just like Mongo, it's astounding they're still breathing and unlikely to still be the case by Christmas.

[wannamaker 1,391]

1 hour ago, msc said:

Le Pen in hospital. Woodward at the very least nearly a decade with end-stage dementia (and possibly worse). Jimmy C in palliative care. Charlton too ill to do family funerals. Starmer-Smith practically on his deathbed. Delors meant to be quite ill. Ackland said elsewhere to be in frail health on this forum. Kundera with heart issues. Faithful with COPD/in a care home. Rolf (allegedly) in deathbed. Willie Nelson frail after being gravely ill last year. Linda Nolan cancer spread badly. Dennis Skinner MIA and "not doing great" years ago. Al-Fayed allegedly dying in court documents. Sonny Rollins just about hanging to life somehow.

 

You know, for a list which looked mediocre, I can't recall a time we've got to the end of the first quarter and we've had quite so many obviously frail good picks on the list suddenly. 

 

If we add all of them + the 4 picks that've already died, this would be the second must successful deathlist in history, and that's not counting all the old as dirt picks like Kissinger, Lear or Barker who could die at anytime. Honestly, what you said at the end is really accurate, I remember being dissappointed with this list at the beginning of the year, but it's looking really promising as time goes on.

[Lafaucheuse 3,996]

Woodward, Kundera, Carter, Le Pen and Harris seems like death cert at this point. 
Charlton, Nolan, Ackland, Starmer-Smith, Taylor and Rollins could hang on for some months more but I think at least 3/6 out of them won’t see 2024. 
And on top of that, I think some old frail will be « surprise » hit. I have a feeling Barker won’t see 2024. Greenspan, Belafonte, Delors, Gall, Kennedy, Baxter, Laine, Newhart and Lear could surprise us all and I wouldn’t be too surprise if one (or even two) of them tops the five first-mentioned.  Except for Sakamoto, we only had nonagerians « could go now or in two years » deaths that far.

 

Faitfull and Nelson don’t seem in immediate danger. 
 

I’d say 16/50