The Ukraine Crisis

[DCI Frank Burnside 3,887]

 

[The Old Crem 3,606]

It is a bit worrying really. 

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

40 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

It is a bit worrying really. 

 

Frankly, I don't care anymore. He's a bully, nothing more, nothing less. These votes are meaningless and unrepresentative but he doesn't care about that, he's just a little fascist, the latest in a long line who all end the same way. He's getting hammered on the battlefield so he's taken the coward's way out, despite declaring in March when he launched this tinpot invasion that absorbing Donetsk and Luhansk into Mother Russia was not on the agenda.

 

So he's threatening nuclear armageddon? Big deal. He's threatened it before and he knows how it ends if he does, as do his ever diminishing band of snivelling cronies. If they're going to allow him to launch a nuclear attack, they're as bad as he is.

 

I imagine in his desperate little head, this is his masterstroke. If Ukraine agree to peace terms on these borders, he has his longed for land bridge to Crimea. I'm hoping the opposite is true: now he's placed these areas of sovereign Ukraine on the same level as occupied Crimea, he's not got a leg to stand on. Ukraine will free Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk and Donetsk and just carry straight on to Odessa and free Crimea while they're at it.

 

The world is absolutely shit, but I do quite like living in it and I'd rather not live through a nuclear holocaust but if we let him get away with this like we did Crimea, next it will be Kiev, or Riga, or Vilnius. He has to be stopped, whatever the cost.

[The Old Crem 3,606]

4 minutes ago, RoverAndOut said:

 

Frankly, I don't care anymore. He's a bully, nothing more, nothing less. These votes are meaningless and unrepresentative but he doesn't care about that, he's just a little fascist, the latest in a long line who all end the same way. He's getting hammered on the battlefield so he's taken the coward's way out, despite declaring in March when he launched this tinpot invasion that absorbing Donetsk and Luhansk into Mother Russia was not on the agenda.

 

So he's threatening nuclear armageddon? Big deal. He's threatened it before and he knows how it ends if he does, as do his ever diminishing band of snivelling cronies. If they're going to allow him to launch a nuclear attack, they're as bad as he is.

 

I imagine in his desperate little head, this is his masterstroke. If Ukraine agree to peace terms on these borders, he has his longed for land bridge to Crimea. I'm hoping the opposite is true: now he's placed these areas of sovereign Ukraine on the same level as occupied Crimea, he's not got a leg to stand on. Ukraine will free Kherson, Zaporizhia, Luhansk and Donetsk and just carry straight on to Odessa and free Crimea while they're at it.

 

The world is absolutely shit, but I do quite like living in it and I'd rather not live through a nuclear holocaust but if we let him get away with this like we did Crimea, next it will be Kiev, or Riga, or Vilnius. He has to be stopped, whatever the cost.

I feel the big risk is Putin deciding he would not mind dying by nuclear strike. If that is the case anything can happen. 

[MortalCaso 1,629]

35 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I feel the big risk is Putin deciding he would not mind dying by nuclear strike. If that is the case anything can happen. 

He isn't. That requires giving up power.

 

Day-by-day he is backing himself further into a corner. We are now at the point where he either gets overthrown, a major proxy war breaks out (already happening in a way), or Nuclear options/WW3. 

 

The question now is how serious will he take the recently annexed portions. The U.S and its allies will keep supplying arms that will be used in 'Russian' territory. Does Putin consider that a direct act of war or will he keep the status quo assuming eventually he'll win. That's the major question.

 

World War 3 is unlikely as Russia has no major allies in this fight. I'm inclined to think he'd only use nuclear weapons if he was literally at the end of the plank. It's more likely we see another Korea, Vietnam, Middle East, etc.

[msc 18,476]

My view is I'd be a lot more worried if he didn't keep bringing up the nukes. It sounds like a cornered bully threatening folk with that karate training they totally have and you'll be sorry.  Those who have to talk up what a bad ass they are usually aren't. Those who talk up how much sex they get usually aren't getting any. Those who talk up nukes time and again have no intention of using them. 

 

And if I'm wrong, me, Clorox and Willz live so near to the nukes, none of us would notice. 

[TQR 14,399]

39 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I feel the big risk is Putin deciding he would not mind dying by nuclear strike. If that is the case anything can happen. 

You felt the Queen had pancreatic cancer, she ended up dying of old age a couple of years later.

 

You felt that the next GE is likely to see a Tory majority of 10, and, granted, it hasn’t happened yet, but within the week three separate polls have put Labour more than 30 points ahead, another three more than 20 points ahead.

 

You felt that Putin was gonna nuke the world to kingdom come months ago, and I can’t remember that happening either.

 

I, therefore, am massively reassured by this feeling of yours today.

[Grim Up North 3,726]

19 minutes ago, TQR said:

I, therefore, am massively reassured by this feeling of yours today.

 

Yeah whereas if Gooseberry felt a nuke enema coming on we'd all be hitting the cellars (we don't have).

[gcreptile 10,978]

The Ukrainians are currently matching into strategic hub Lyman, where Putin, now that he has started to personally take control of the campaign, might have created his very own Stalingrad.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-63100522

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

53 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

The Ukrainians are currently matching into strategic hub Lyman, where Putin, now that he has started to get personally take control of the campaign, might have created his very own Stalingrad.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-63100522

 

Apparently the Russians have asked to surrender and their superiors have said no. So do they fight to the death or ignore their superiors and surrender, with the prospective punishments that eventually entails? Ukraine reckon 5000-5,500 Russians in Lyman, but it will be lower due to those already killed and injured. Yet more humiliation for the little Hitler in the Kremlin.

[Grim Up North 3,726]

When Hitler was in his bunker if he had nuclear weapons what would have happened?

 

It’s hard to know if it’s better if Russia win or lose the war.

[gcreptile 10,978]

2 hours ago, Grim Up North said:

When Hitler was in his bunker if he had nuclear weapons what would have happened?

 

It’s hard to know if it’s better if Russia win or lose the war.

When things turned bad, Hitler supposedly decided that the loss should be as complete as possible, no peace and admission of guilt... together into the abyss. In his worldview the German race had to die because it had been defeated, Remember, he used the 15 year old boys at the end.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

3 hours ago, Grim Up North said:

When Hitler was in his bunker if he had nuclear weapons what would have happened?

 

It’s hard to know if it’s better if Russia win or lose the war.

 

Agreed. But with Hitler holed up in his bunker as Germany collapses around him, the question is perhaps more whether those who controlled the nuclear weapons would have followed orders to use them. In 1945, the answer is probably yes, as nobody knew their true devastating potential as seen in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. But the situation is quite different here. Ukraine and the West aren't advocating a march to Moscow, simply a march back to Russia's 2014 borders. Putin may spin it as an existential battle for Russia's future, but it's his battle, not Russia's. Regardless of the theatre show yesterday, he is in an incredibly weak position, one not helped by today's rout in Lyman.

[chel 376]

Photo 1. 1945. Boxes with torn out gold teeth of prisoners, found in Buchenwald, where the German Nazis tortured and killed people.

 

Photo 2. 2022. A box with torn out gold dentures found in Kharkiv region in the liberated village of Piski-Radkovskie. Russian Nazis tortured and killed people there. 

 

https://www.facebook.com/nakipelovo/posts/499855632150173

[Great Uncle Bulgaria 1,287]

Clearly something of a minority view here but I still think Russia will get most of what it wants in the end. The west has stuck together thus far and supplied Ukraine with arms etc but this war is at the bottom of much of the economic misery piling up in the rest of the world atm and I don't think it will be too long before some politicians begin to argue that the billions going towards flattening whatever buildings are still standing in southern and eastern Ukraine would be far better spent on the NHS/alleviating poverty here etc and pressure is put on Zelensky to do a deal that will give the Russians most of their ill-gotten gains. The extra hundreds of thousands Putin called up a couple of weeks  ago will increase their numerical advantage and help stem the current run of Ukrainian gains and I see no sign that Putin is vulnerable internally. Time is Putin's friend (and I don't mean our friend from Brighton).

[msc 18,476]

tbh I disagree. Numerical advantage only works if you have tactical advantage and knowledge to go alongside it, as Russia itself proved in Finland and Afghanistan. Otherwise it's just sending cannon fodder mooks to run up the Grim Reaper's score. The little training these men are getting attests to that too - most of them going from the streets to the heart of war within a week and will die or surrender unless very lucky or a natural soldier, both of which are rare attributes. 

 

Ukraine would do a deal today, because all they want is Russian troops out of Ukrainian territory. Putin would lose too much face from that, so we're left at stalemate. Given the number of assassins Putin continues to send after Zelensky, you can see why he might not been keen on a deal where the compromise is him being dead. Where Putin's Russian troops have worked best is in actions like in Georgia, a quick blitzkrieg to overwhelm the state, and back home in time for the postcards. When they get bogged down, as here, it gets messy.

 

But you are correct, I do not believe Putin suffers internal issues. He spent 20 years bumping off his rivals, and his local police/troops in Moscow are loyal to him. Also, he knows the tricks of the KGB, hence he never meets people close enough to do anything to him. 

 

Afghanistan was a muddy graveyard until Brezhnev and his cartel were dead. Ukraine might well be the same.

[RoverAndOut 4,746]

50 minutes ago, Great Uncle Bulgaria said:

Clearly something of a minority view here but I still think Russia will get most of what it wants in the end. The west has stuck together thus far and supplied Ukraine with arms etc but this war is at the bottom of much of the economic misery piling up in the rest of the world atm and I don't think it will be too long before some politicians begin to argue that the billions going towards flattening whatever buildings are still standing in southern and eastern Ukraine would be far better spent on the NHS/alleviating poverty here etc and pressure is put on Zelensky to do a deal that will give the Russians most of their ill-gotten gains. The extra hundreds of thousands Putin called up a couple of weeks  ago will increase their numerical advantage and help stem the current run of Ukrainian gains and I see no sign that Putin is vulnerable internally. Time is Putin's friend (and I don't mean our friend from Brighton).

 

Agree with most of what @msc says. The Tories are wedded to the war, Johnson treated it as his Churchill moment and Truss is going full Falklands as befits her Maggie Thatcher tribute act. Italy's new leader is a question mark, but she and Zelensky shared warm words on her election. The simple fact is, we can't give Putin what he wants. It emboldens him. We, broadly speaking, turned a blind eye to Crimea and 8 years later he's back for more. You think a couple of hundred thousand soldiers dying is going to prevent him suffering a year's headache if he get what he wants in the end? He'll build up his infrastructure from Kherson to Luhansk and in another decade he'll be back for the rest of Ukraine, if not sooner. And whatever else before and after. I also agree that arming people with guns who don't want to be there is not a good idea, and a mistake the Russians have made before, in both 1905 and 1917, when unrest in the army led to revolution back home. Putin banked on this being done by the end of March, tanks on Zelensky's lawn and Ukraine in his pocket. I wonder how it's going to look if by the time March next year rolls around, they hold little more territory than they held a year earlier, given the body count, cost and loss of prestige and standing. Putin is in a corner, entirely of his own making, Ukraine know it, the West know it, even China and India know it. The iron giant is just a pathetic little man after all, even with his nuclear weapons.

[The Old Crem 3,606]

I can see Putin bombing (with conventional weapons) a NATO country within the week. 

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

On 05/10/2022 at 14:52, Great Uncle Bulgaria said:

Clearly something of a minority view here but I still think Russia will get most of what it wants in the end. The west has stuck together thus far and supplied Ukraine with arms etc but this war is at the bottom of much of the economic misery piling up in the rest of the world atm and I don't think it will be too long before some politicians begin to argue that the billions going towards flattening whatever buildings are still standing in southern and eastern Ukraine would be far better spent on the NHS/alleviating poverty here etc and pressure is put on Zelensky to do a deal that will give the Russians most of their ill-gotten gains. The extra hundreds of thousands Putin called up a couple of weeks  ago will increase their numerical advantage and help stem the current run of Ukrainian gains and I see no sign that Putin is vulnerable internally. Time is Putin's friend (and I don't mean our friend from Brighton).

 

 

So, the weapons being supplied appear to be highly effective and that burning bridge into Crimea is likely proof that Russia's supply lines and personnel everywhere are now within range - the only good news in that scenario being the morale of the Russians can't fall any lower than it already is. Posted on his thread just now about how much of this is on him, social media across Russia has clips from miserable men on the front line and the sanctions set up at the start of the year have made life in Russia harder than it was a year back. I'd say time isn't Putin's friend unless he can turn some of this shit round. The options for him are dire and extreme, escalate it to the point his pariah country is an inernational outcast for a generation or cut the losses and look weak. I take Crem's point above but also wonder if his power base at home would disintegrate and he'd be deposed attempting that.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

Oh aye, and...

 

I'm thinking Ukraine has a tourist boom coming once the minefields are cleared - amazing how once fought over territory brings in the punters to see for themselves - Bosnia and Belfast both being prime examples in different ways.

[TQR 14,399]

11 minutes ago, The Old Crem said:

I can see Putin bombing (with conventional weapons) a NATO country within the week. 

I bet you an entire month of energy bills that this won’t happen.

 

We on?

[The Old Crem 3,606]

Ben Wallace has rushed to Washington on an emergency trip. Some speculation it could be a sign serious escalations in the war will be expected. 

[chel 376]

Photo 1. Siegfried Line (1940) - present day.

 

Photo 2. Wagner line (2022)

 

The Wagner PMC fighters, after whom the large-scale fortifications are named, are actively involved in their creation and oversee the entire process.

https://www.gosrf.ru/v-belgorodskoj-oblasti-sozdaetsya-vtoraya-chast-linii-vagnera/

[chel 376]

A Russian serviceman broke his leg during shelling in Ukraine, was cured and underwent a medical check-up. He decided to have some fun and fired a rocket launcher at a nightclub. In the ensuing fire 13 people died, 250 evacuated. Not all the evacuation exits were open. The nightclub at the cafe of the same name was called "Polygon" and its owner was a member of the Kostroma Regional Duma from the ruling party "United Russia".

 

https://youtu.be/g798iojLqTY

 

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

 

[gcreptile 10,978]

Russia is chaotically retreating from Cherson right now. It's apparently a bloodbath. Things are moving quickly again now after Ukraine built a lot of pressure over weeks and weeks.