Do You Actually Research?

[msc 18,480]

26 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

Ha, well I decided to reduce the amount of telling for next year. I mean, I was the biggest "culprit"/greatest sharer in the past 2 years, still managed plenty of unique hits anyway. But I think I gave too much away and it looks like getting unique hits will be harder next time. By the way, if I haven't posted it when the news come out, I won't.

 

Ah, they're on your shortlist, gotcha.

 

But yeah, John Derrick could have been a unique for me if I hadn't named him on here. Instead, he was a unique for someone else! See also Derek Martinus.

 

Quote

I wonder now what the typical TJS pick is. Either a USA-special, or a semi-obscure indie musician - I don't have certain people in mind.

 

Couldn't possibly comment.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

3 minutes ago, msc said:

Ah, they're on your shortlist, gotcha.

 

But yeah, John Derrick could have been a unique for me if I hadn't named him on here. Instead, he was a unique for someone else! See also Derek Martinus.

In short, if someone has Derrick in the name, he'll be a unique for someone else but not msc.  

[gcreptile 10,979]

I am in the process of including all those new names from other people for the team score calculations into my longlist.

I do the same for the new DeathList candidates...

 

Now the 2000th member of my longlist (including people dead and alive) is..... Valery Giscard D'estaing.

 

Edit: In 2015 I added a bit more than 600 names to the list.

In 2016 about 800.

In 2017 only about 500 - the well is running dry?

[msc 18,480]

The other day I was talking to a colleague on Skype about one of their projects and they said "Of course, X is unlikely to get involved now."

"Wants more money?" I asked.

"No, they're dying."

 

I presumed this was private information, but anyhow, I kept this in my mind for future reference, and had a gander at Google later on. True enough, X's health is Google-able, they're not off the radar as I'd thought, and it was referenced in a newspaper this month. Now, X is a fairly big name, and I've come to this news a bit after the fact. News story was dated from around the 2nd. And I'm 100% sure I'm not the first Deathlister to spot this, even if I only stumbled across it via third party.

 

Which tells me one of two things.

 

Either people out there think the person will be alive in 2019 and are all keeping it secret already.

OR

People are keeping it secret for the Deathlist Cup, and there's going to be a whole lot of groaning when the first person breaks cover early.

 

 

And wanting to discover which of those two is right is the only reason I haven't named them yet!

[gcreptile 10,979]

I, for one, don't know who you're talking about :).

 

Neither do I know your field of work...

[msc 18,480]

10 minutes ago, gcreptile said:

I, for one, don't know who you're talking about :).

 

Neither do I know your field of work...

 

 

Nah, I will reveal post-Cup unless they die first or someone picks them.

[YoungWillz 21,067]

 

I barely register big names.

 

So I'll have a guess at BA Robertson....

[msc 18,480]

3 minutes ago, YoungWillz said:

 

I barely register big names.

 

So I'll have a guess at BA Robertson....

 

We've been watching the same show!

 

I preferred the Maggie Bell  bit of that tune though (the BA Robertson one, not Toyah...). Fecking hell, just Googled her and she's 73 now!!!

[Cat O'Falk 3,290]

1 hour ago, YoungWillz said:

I barely register big names.

 

So I'll have a guess at BA Robertson....

Knock it off. 

[charon 4,943]

I shit you not, I was on his wiki page on Thur/Fri of last week.

 

Main memory of Saturday Superstore was it? was him with rolled up jaiket sleeves. That and smarmy Mike Read.

[msc 18,480]

I was too, then-abouts, because he was on TOTP81 on BBC4 as mentioned above. Duet with Maggie Bell (formerly Alex Harveys de facto sister in law, also singer of the Taggart theme). Apparently he wrote the 82 World Cup song for Scotland too! One of those "whatever happened to?" folk.

 

Can't get the chorus of Swords of a Thousand Men out of my head since last week either. Not showing any of the shows with the usual suspects - Savile, Travis, Mike Smith (that's a copyright issue, apparently)...

[charon 4,943]

Yet Eddie Tenpole is still active and in early seasons of Game of Thrones iirc.

[Sir Creep 7,070]

OK well I was THIIIIS close to starting a new thread, but it should be necessary.  I want a place we can stick collective research we can all draw upon.

You find a chart showing the % of people surviving a particular disease for a particular # of years undergoing a particular treatment, post it.  Info I need to know.
Sadly "Statistics' is all about DDP stats, not stats on people dying.

And 'Do You Actually Research' doesn't seem interested in actual research.

In fact, I think I AM going to start a thread cuz posting my research here doesn't seem accurate.
I want to see if WE see trends that the medical community (and worse for us, the media) is missing.  i think collectively we are smarter and more focused than they are when it comes to end-of-life anticipation.
SC

 

PS: Admin if I am truly missing a proper thread please direct me.

[msc 18,480]

Well, ok, some added info on a common deadpool cause of death we all know: pancreatic cancer. Never doubt it. Looking at the big DDP picks in the last decade with pan can. While each age group - 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s+ - have someone who survived over 12 months, the average for each group is at most 13.1 months from announcement AND/OR diagnosis to death. So if you've got a QO pick with pancreatic cancer diagnosed in November or earlier the stats are in your favour and heavily against them.

 

Also, there are some Stage IV cancers with worse stats than even pancreatic or glioblastomas - bone cancer (stage IV average prognosis 5 months) for one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[msc 18,480]

Oh, and if you want some stattology way above the necessary, the average survival for Stage IV lung cancer for a person in their 50s (with the available info to the current date)? 18.6 months. Which means with an announcement on 8th October 2016 (and backdating her illness to September), Leah Bracknell will reach the average prognosis/life expectancy for someone with her condition around the 26th March 2018.

 

Hey, you know, when you get tested for it, you do some "worst case scenario" number crunching...

[Cat O'Falk 3,290]

1 hour ago, Sir Creep said:

OK well I was THIIIIS close to starting a new thread, but it should be necessary.  I want a place we can stick collective research we can all draw upon.

You find a chart showing the % of people surviving a particular disease for a particular # of years undergoing a particular treatment, post it.  Info I need to know.
Sadly "Statistics' is all about DDP stats, not stats on people dying.

And 'Do You Actually Research' doesn't seem interested in actual research.

In fact, I think I AM going to start a thread cuz posting my research here doesn't seem accurate.
I want to see if WE see trends that the medical community (and worse for us, the media) is missing.  i think collectively we are smarter and more focused than they are when it comes to end-of-life anticipation.
SC

 

PS: Admin if I am truly missing a proper thread please direct me.

Well the thread title fits if not the content:

Death Related Trivia and Facts

[Grim Up North 3,727]

1 hour ago, msc said:

Well, ok, some added info on a common deadpool cause of death we all know: pancreatic cancer. Never doubt it. Looking at the big DDP picks in the last decade with pan can. While each age group - 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s+ - have someone who survived over 12 months, the average for each group is at most 13.1 months from announcement AND/OR diagnosis to death. So if you've got a QO pick with pancreatic cancer diagnosed in November or earlier the stats are in your favour and heavily against them.

 

Also, there are some Stage IV cancers with worse stats than even pancreatic or glioblastomas - bone cancer (stage IV average prognosis 5 months) for one.

Yeah the really tricky bit of dead pooling is that an average means you get 50/50 hits and misses which isn't enough. What you probably need is the standard deviation info so you could get up to an 80% hit rate but then you have to accept that you will miss some people who go early (like Liam Miller) and make the average what it is.

[msc 18,480]

4 minutes ago, Grim Up North said:

Yeah the really tricky bit of dead pooling is that an average means you get 50/50 hits and misses which isn't enough. What you probably need is the standard deviation info so you could get up to an 80% hit rate but then you have to accept that you will miss some people who go early (like Liam Miller) and make the average what it is.

 

And Grim, you've just explained why Paul Alcock wasn't on my team!

[Sir Creep 7,070]

This morning I found a lock for the Cup should he/she live till April, or for any other nefarious reason.  It's so damned exciting to know no one will find this person.  I feel like Spade Cooley does at least once a week.
SC

[Joey Russ 7,229]

Think I just found my first very likely 2019 cult name today, barring their death or someone mentioning them of course. I mean, there’s a few names on my longlist that could be a cult name, but I can’t really a lot others rejecting this person, especially with the drop 40 reduction next year...

[Sir Creep 7,070]

How are you privy to next year’s DDP rule changes 

[Joey Russ 7,229]

Er, Spade already announced he would in this thread: 

 

[Sir Creep 7,070]

I mean cmon.... thanks for the update.  I’ll start following Video Game Nerds thread for all my deadpooling rules amendments.

[Joey Russ 7,229]

Haven’t been doing a lot of research throughout this year. Most of it has been in small chunks about once every 2 - 3 weeks or so, but despite that, I already found a few off forum people that could easily be on my 2019 lineup if they make it. I think I might try the five point maxim next year on someone that fascinates me, if they make it of course...

[Sir Creep 7,070]

13 hours ago, Joey Russ said:

Haven’t been doing a lot of research throughout this year. Most of it has been in small chunks about once every 2 - 3 weeks or so, but despite that, I already found a few off forum people that could easily be on my 2019 lineup if they make it. I think I might try the five point maxim next year on someone that fascinates me, if they make it of course...

I feel ya.  I've had to keep 'recent' thanks to the Cup, but that's a totally different set of names than one would amass for DDP etc that require stricter obits.  I have only come across 2 or 3 'secret' names lol (as if) in the past 4 months.  
SC