What Do You Think Of The 2015 Death List?

[Sean 6,330]

Nobody wants a long list, so tough.

 

 

 

Thoughts on the surviving 2015 class.

 

 

- Zsa Zsa: immortal? Well, she'll go one day, probably when we least expect it.

 

- Joao Havelange: hospitalised last year, probably doing a Pinochet, but is very old, and has gone quite quiet since resigning from all jobs due to corruption in 2013. Will be dead by December 2016 at the latest.

 

- Herman Wouk: Have a gut feeling he'll go before Christmas, based solely on the recent trend for notable centenarians dropping off within 7 months of their century! He did seem in fairly good nick when interviewed for his birthday, but again, he wont have many of those left.

 

- Rev Billy Graham: allegedly very ill. Allegedly a bit of a publicity whore too, mind you.

 

- Oliva de Havilland: Not going anywhere just yet. She seems in better nick than Luise Rainer did at her age, she still replies to fan mail, gives interviews, and does meet and greet type things.

 

- Javier Perez de Cuellar: Haven't a clue.

 

- Denis Healey: looked notably weaker when interviewed this Summer, admittedly it was by that Casual Politics guy. He's in injury time.

 

George Bush Sr: At this rate, he's going to a do a Adams/Jefferson with Jimmy.

 

Prince Philip: Still got another few years in him yet, I think. He's got the fight in him and the best care money can buy.

 

Helmut Schmidt: Looking precarious the now.

 

Fidel Castro: No clue. He was able to speak to Francis though.

 

Kirk Douglas: alleged evil never dies. He's still pottering along though.

 

Clive James: Will be here in 5 years time.

 

Al Molinaro: Haven't a clue. Could die tommorow, could be dead already.

 

Valerie Harper: Will be here in 2017. Her terminal cancer was slow in 2014, and hadn't progressed by this Summer. Seems like a slow burner...

 

Maureen O'Hara: Fairly chatty this year after the Honorary Oscar, "enjoying retirement", though wheelchair bound and cared for by a grandson. Will she go in the next 10 weeks? Doubt it.

 

Martin Crowe: Will go in the next 12 months at some point. Oct 2014, given 12 months to live (so for all the talk of lingering, he's not outdone his doctors prognosis yet). Feb 2015, still looking healthy. April 2015, significantly weaker. July 2015, momentarily in a hospice for care while family away. Frequently in the media until April time. An expert could probably tell us exactly how long he has left based on that deterioration scale. He was sleeping 15 hour a day in March...

 

Bhumibol Adulyadej: He's very ill, but then, so is Zsa Zsa.

Helmut Kohl: Well, they did seem to be preparing the news when he had surgery. And he had a few strokes recently too. Taking the Ruth Rendell longevity into account, 4 months after critical stroke, he might go next week for all we know. [While he's had to cancel a few public engagements, his office continue to claim he's making "encouraging progress".]

 

Leslie Phillip: Very quiet. Very, very quiet. Was acting up to 2012, doing stage two years ago, did some things after his last big health scare. Then, his stroke this year and... quiet. Ominous.

 

Ken Kercheval: Haven't a clue why he's on the list. Maybe they regret missing out on Hagman.

 

Harper Lee: Not going anytime soon.

 

Bob Dole: Able to make jokes, in September 2015, about running for the Presidency again. Not going anywhere.

 

Joost van der Westhuizen: Seems a long time ago he was cheating on his wife with the neurologist. Only 2012. Compare video of him a year ago (when he was frail but still looked fairly like an ex-player) to footage from this week (where he looks like a cancer patient). I think he'll linger on, but we can count the number of Hogmanays he'll see left on one finger.

 

Doris Day: No return to acting, alas.

 

Peter Sallis: recently his family asked fans not to send him any more fanmail, as he is unable to respond to it. Has vascular dementia and other problems. He'll be gone within 18 months, and it will be a sad day.

 

Denis Norden: Still does interviews, and shows up on the radio now and again. No longer on the TV as he's entirely blind these days due to vascular dementia, but that's not fatal in itself.

 

Henry Kissinger: Mephistopheles hasn't arrived for his debt, yet. Looks much like he did 10 years ago in interviews.

 

Jake La Motta: Still doing appearances.

 

Cliff Michelmore: Went into splendid retirement nearly 25 years ago, and is very private. Rarely gives interviews. Showed up for a few documentaries on the BBC around 2009 and looked much the same as ever. Short of an illness - which we wont hear of in advance - he'll be around for a while yet.

 

Nancy Reagan - I think we'll get plenty of advance warning on her going.

 

Hosni Mubarak: As long as he has health issues, he remains in hospital and not in jail. As a result, I think he's "doing a Pinochet".

 

Liz Smith: Quiet, but she is 94.

 

Robert Mugabe: Possibly going doolally. How tragic. He's not going this year.

 

Chuck Berry: Nah.

 

Richard Adams: Tends to give interviews, though his last big one was in January.

 

Jake the Snake: Maybe next year, try Superfly? Jake is the list's cockroach, he'll survive anything.

 

Vera Lynn: Reports she's getting quite frail, actually, so possible.

 

Eddie Large, Bill Maynard: Haven't a clue.

 

So that was a long diversion from "Leslie Philips has been a bit quiet" but these things happen. Actually, knowing how its gone this year, all the old names assumed to be doing alright will now die. Apologies in advance to all Cliff Michelmore fans then.

Can you please give sources with regards to Sallis and Norden?I think you may be confusing vascular dementia with macular degeneration?

[msc 18,476]

I am indeed, edited now.

 

As for Sallis, a search suggests we spoke on him a month ago, and I managed to not mangle up my eye conditions then.

 

Norden was interviewed about his health on the Radio 4 by Robert Peston in June.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

With regard to Bill Maynard and Eddie Large.

 

We know that Bill Maynard has reduced mobility and is divorced from his second wife. He does not seem to be living the life of luxury so I think he is a legitimate pick who could go any times.

 

Eddie Large on the other hand may be some players just trying to be too clever and reading too much into an unfortunate accident two years ago.

[paulh85 101]

pushing towards that unwanted target of longest wait between deaths this year now.

 

I think we will get two more hits for the remainder of the year

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

The two record holding years are 2003 & 2008.

 

By this time in 2003 all the action was over and there were no more deaths.

 

In 2008 we were still waiting for 12th death which occurred on Day 291. That gives us 12 more days to pull ahead of the 2008. In 2013 we had a flurry in the final months and finished one short of the record.

 

Crowe, Bhumibol, Schmidt and one random one will see a new DL record.

[RadGuy 1,614]

2006: 13 hits

2007: 10 hits

2008: 14 hits

 

2013: 13 hits

2014: 10 hits

2015: 14 hits?

[msc 18,476]

The two record holding years are 2003 & 2008.

 

By this time in 2003 all the action was over and there were no more deaths.

 

In 2008 we were still waiting for 12th death which occurred on Day 291. That gives us 12 more days to pull ahead of the 2008. In 2013 we had a flurry in the final months and finished one short of the record.

 

Crowe, Bhumibol, Schmidt and one random one will see a new DL record.

 

For ease of access:

 

Deathlist years by number of hits

 

 

1. 2008 (14/50), 2003 (14/50)
2. 2013 (13/50), 2006 (13/50)
3. 2012 (12/50), 2009 (12/50), 2005 (12/50), 2004 (12/50)
4. 2015 (11/50)
5. 2014 (10/50), 2007 (10/50), 2002 (10/50), 2001 (10/50), 2000 (10/50), 1999 (10/50)
6. 2010 (9/50), 1997 (9/50), 1995 (9/50), 1994 (9/50)
7. 1998 (8/50)
8. 2011 (7/50), 1996 (7/50)
9. 1993 (5/56), 1992 (5/37)
10. 1990 (3/42), 1989 (3/32)
11. 1987 (1/31)
12. 1991 (0/40)

 

First though - man, I forgot how bad 2011 did. Secondly, the omens are good for at least one more hit since there's never been an 11/50 score before.

 

 

Though, of the years ranked above 2015 as it stands, here is the number of hits scored by expected peoples ie terminally ill, months to live types, or those who were in the news for being poorly.

 

2003 - 6

2004 - 2

2005 - 4

2006 - 4

2008 - 8

2009 - 7

2012 - 4

2013 - 7

2015 - 3

 

Given many of the more dire health cases have clung on (12, including at least four terminal cases we know of), that makes 2015's 11/50 so far even more remarkable. It's 72% held up by old people not waking up one day.

 

Mind you, if Crowe, the Thai King, and someone like Harper go in the last three months, we'll have the numbers and the stats akin to 2008 and 2003.

 

What this proves, other than I like lists, however, no one knows.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Excellent data gathering msc.

 

Looking at the list above it is interesting to note that all the scores below 7 occurred before we settled on 50 as the total list number so I would be inclined to omit those from any calculations about expectations.

 

However that does set a bar and if in any year the total fell below 7 then I would expect the Deathlist committee to write a letter to the Prime Minister explaining the circumstances that allowed this to happen (in the same way Mark Carney does with inflation targets)

 

So that leaves 22 years with 227 hits between then. 10 is the mean, the median and the mode of that set of numbers so we are already ahead of an average year and I think there is still space to get more.

[gcreptile 10,978]

 

 

What this proves, other than I like lists, however, no one knows.

 

It proves to me the POWER OF THE INTERNET for research. Those early years were sort of poor, though inexperience and publicity creating picks may also have played a role.

[msc 18,476]

It probably didn't help when they were picking, say, William Hartnell 15 years after his well publicised death. Modern Deathlist doesn't try scoring hits on Tony Hart or Leslie Nielsen in 2015 these days...

 

Though they did have a minor slip up in 2008, I seem to recall.

[Death Impends 7,979]

It probably didn't help when they were picking, say, William Hartnell 15 years after his well publicised death. Modern Deathlist doesn't try scoring hits on Tony Hart or Leslie Nielsen in 2015 these days...

 

Though they did have a minor slip up in 2008, I seem to recall.

 

I recall that as well. They put Frankie Laine on who died the previous year, but since that was in the age where the forum can give insight and catch it they quickly noticed their mistake. Think Wisdom was the replacement.

[msc 18,476]

Deathlist years by number of hits (updated)

1. 2008 (14/50), 2003 (14/50)
2. 2013 (13/50), 2006 (13/50)
3. 2015 (12/50), 2012 (12/50), 2009 (12/50), 2005 (12/50), 2004 (12/50)
4. 2014 (10/50), 2007 (10/50), 2002 (10/50), 2001 (10/50), 2000 (10/50), 1999 (10/50)
5. 2010 (9/50), 1997 (9/50), 1995 (9/50), 1994 (9/50)
6. 1998 (8/50)
7. 2011 (7/50), 1996 (7/50)
8. 1993 (5/56), 1992 (5/37)
9. 1990 (3/42), 1989 (3/32)
10. 1987 (1/31)
11. 1991 (0/40)

 

Into the podium spots, admittedly in shared position. However, Maureen O'Hara was another case of an old person going rather than someone known for being ill, so Deathlist 2015 is now 75% held up by people not waking up one day.

 

Now, the omens are 50/50 from this point on. Every single of the 12/50 Deathlists had a hit after 27th October. 2004 and 2012's hit rate in the last two months would break the record if seen this year. 2009 and 2005 wouldn't.

 

Looking at the 2nd place years, 2006 had 5 hits after this point and 2013 had 4 hits. For completeness sakes, 2008 had 2 hits after this date, and 2003 had none at all!

 

So, there is nearly an unanimous precedent that lists that get to this level tend to have at least one more hit in them.

 

And yet, looking at the data, we're still way below on the terminal cases.

 

My guess, as it stands, is that Martin Crowe is unlikely to see out the year, to take us to thirteen. Then, it becomes a matter of the luck of the old, as they say.

 

 

[Magere Hein 1,400]

Deathlist years by number of hits (updated)

1. 2008 (14/50), 2003 (14/50)

2. 2013 (13/50), 2006 (13/50)

3. 2015 (12/50), 2012 (12/50), 2009 (12/50), 2005 (12/50), 2004 (12/50)

4. 2014 (10/50), 2007 (10/50), 2002 (10/50), 2001 (10/50), 2000 (10/50), 1999 (10/50)

5. 2010 (9/50), 1997 (9/50), 1995 (9/50), 1994 (9/50)

6. 1998 (8/50)

7. 2011 (7/50), 1996 (7/50)

8. 1993 (5/56), 1992 (5/37)

9. 1990 (3/42), 1989 (3/32)

10. 1987 (1/31)

11. 1991 (0/40)

 

[comment snipped]

Thanks for that. I had similar thoughts recently: it's not November yet and we're at 12, that's 1.2 per calendar month. Keep up this pace, and we'll net 2.4 more hits before January, rounded down to 2, so we end up with 14 hits and a fair chance at 15. Keeping up the pace is the operative word here, a fickle game at best.

[msc 18,476]

Deathlist years by number of hits (updated)

 

1. 2008 (14/50), 2003 (14/50)
2. 2015 (13/50), 2013 (13/50), 2006 (13/50)
3. 2012 (12/50), 2009 (12/50), 2005 (12/50), 2004 (12/50)
4. 2014 (10/50), 2007 (10/50), 2002 (10/50), 2001 (10/50), 2000 (10/50), 1999 (10/50)
5. 2010 (9/50), 1997 (9/50), 1995 (9/50), 1994 (9/50)
6. 1998 (8/50)
7. 2011 (7/50), 1996 (7/50)
8. 1993 (5/56), 1992 (5/37)
9. 1990 (3/42), 1989 (3/32)
10. 1987 (1/31)
11. 1991 (0/40)

 

Everything I said four days ago remains the same, except that the 2015 Deathlist is now held up by 77% old people not waking up. And frankly, who cares at this point? There is no doubt any longer that this is one of the great Deathlist years. Only 2003 had racked up the score faster than this year, and all other years with this level of success (bar 2003) had one more hit in them at this point.

 

Deathlist years by number of hits (updated)

 

 

Into the podium spots, admittedly in shared position. However, Maureen O'Hara was another case of an old person going rather than someone known for being ill, so Deathlist 2015 is now 75% held up by people not waking up one day.

 

Now, the omens are 50/50 from this point on. Every single of the 12/50 Deathlists had a hit after 27th October. 2004 and 2012's hit rate in the last two months would break the record if seen this year. 2009 and 2005 wouldn't.

 

Looking at the 2nd place years, 2006 had 5 hits after this point and 2013 had 4 hits. For completeness sakes, 2008 had 2 hits after this date, and 2003 had none at all!

 

So, there is nearly an unanimous precedent that lists that get to this level tend to have at least one more hit in them.

 

And yet, looking at the data, we're still way below on the terminal cases.

 

My guess, as it stands, is that Martin Crowe is unlikely to see out the year, to take us to thirteen. Then, it becomes a matter of the luck of the old, as they say.

 

 

[Dead Wait 1,148]

This has the makings of scoring 15 in the year 15......

[Sean 6,330]

I reckon we have another 3 to go.

[maryportfuncity 10,647]

I reckon we have another 3 to go.

 

 

Yeah, wouldn't surprise me. If those three could also be the ones still breathing on my HPDP list that'd be fine and dandy too.

[wildstorm 297]

it's november, which means we haven't had a hit since last month! terrible list

[Deathray 2,940]

Awful list year. Course your going to get a higher hit rate if you stuff the list with nonagerians, obscure public servants and cancer-farmers

[JiroemonKimura 95]

I reckon Crowe will make a Wilko Johnson-like recovery.

[Bibliogryphon 9,586]

Awful list year. Course your going to get a higher hit rate if you stuff the list with nonagerians, obscure public servants and cancer-farmers

 

When the list was published I was a little disappointed but the committee have shown that the picks have been good. I think the same types of names (90+ etc) in previous years may have yielded less hits.

 

I struggled to work out who I would drop when I wrote my list of names to exclude. These were not the only choices that could have been made but we can't complain.

[Magere Hein 1,400]

Deathlist years by number of hits (updated)

=1. 2015 (14/50), 2008 (14/50), 2003 (14/50)

=4. 2013 (13/50), 2006 (13/50)

=6. 2012 (12/50), 2009 (12/50), 2005 (12/50), 2004 (12/50)

=10. 2014 (10/50), 2007 (10/50), 2002 (10/50), 2001 (10/50), 2000 (10/50), 1999 (10/50)

=16. 2010 (9/50), 1997 (9/50), 1995 (9/50), 1994 (9/50)

20. 1998 (8/50)

=21. 2011 (7/50), 1996 (7/50)

=23. 1993 (5/56), 1992 (5/37)

=25. 1990 (3/42), 1989 (3/32)

=27. 1987 (1/31)

28. 1991 (0/40)

 

Quietly mr Schmidt pushed 2015 into shared 1st, with 51 days left for hit #15 and a record.

[YoungWillz 21,057]

What do we say? Record breaking year? I think so.

[Sean 6,330]

What do we say? Record breaking year? I think so.

I would be astounded if we didn`t.

[msc 18,476]

 

What do we say? Record breaking year? I think so.

I would be astounded if we didn`t.

 

 

Martin Crowe would be delighted if we didn't!

 

Good work, Magere, on updating the list.